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At least 595 records · Page 33

Beyond Chandra - the X-ray Surveyor

Over the past 16 years, NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory has provided an unparalleled means for exploring the high energy universe with its half-arcsecond angular resolution. Chandra studies have deepened our understanding of galaxy clusters, active galactic nuclei, galaxies, supernova remnants, planets, and solar system objects addressing most, if not all, areas of current interest in astronomy and astrophysics. As we look beyond Chandra, it is clear that comparable or even better angular resolution with greatly increased photon throughput is essential to address even more demanding science questions, such as the formation and subsequent growth of black hole seeds at very high redshift; the emergence of the first galaxy groups; and details of feedback over a large range of scales from galaxies to galaxy clusters. Recently, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, has initiated a concept study for such a mission now named the X-ray Surveyor. This concept study starts with a baseline payload consisting of a high resolution X-ray telescope and an instrument set which may include an X-ray calorimeter, a wide-field imager and a dispersive grating spectrometer and readout. The telescope would consist of highly nested thin shells, for which a number of technical approaches are currently under development, including adjustable X-ray optics, differential deposition, and modern polishing techniques applied to a variety of substrates. In many areas, the mission requirements would be no more stringent than those of Chandra, and the study takes advantage of similar studies for other large area missions carried out over the past two decades. Initial assessments indicate that such an X-ray mission is scientifically compelling, technically feasible, and worthy of a high prioritization by the next American National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey for Astronomy and Astrophysics.

Beyond Chandra↗

Bone Turnover Does Not Reflect Skeletal Aging in Older Hispanic Men with Type 2 Diabetes

The paradox of fragility fracture in the presence of non-osteoporotic bone mineral density in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) makes it difficult to clinically predict fracture in this vulnerable group. Serum osteocalcin (OC), a marker of bone turnover, increases with normal skeletal aging indicating risk of fracture. However, OC has been reported to be lower in patients with DM2. An inverse association between higher glycated hemoglobin levels (HbA1c) and lower serum OC in older DM2 patients triggered discussions encouraging further investigation. A key question to be answered is whether changes in glucose metabolism is responsible for bone metabolic changes, ultimately leading to increased risk of fragility fractures in DM2 patients. While these studies were conducted among Caucasian and Asian populations, this has not been studied in Hispanic populations who suffer from a higher prevalence of DM2. The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) in Texas is a homogeneous Hispanic cohort known to have high prevalence of DM2 (30%). Our preliminary data from this cohort reported OC levels lower than the suggested threshold for fragility fracture in post-menopausal women. We further investigated whether bone turnover in older CCHC adults with DM2 show a normal pattern of skeletal aging. Samples and data were obtained from a nested cohort of 68 (21 men and 47 women) Hispanic older adults (≥50 years) who had a diagnosis of DM2. Given high prevalence of uncontrolled DM2 in this cohort, we divided population into two groups: i) poor DM2 control with HbA1c level ≥8 (48% men and 38% women) and ii) good DM2 control with HbA1c level <8). A crosssectional analysis documented associations between serum OC and age adjusted HbA1c levels. There was no direct association between age and OC concentrations in our study. Higher HbA1c was associated with lower serum OC in men (odds ratio -6.5, 95% confidence interval -12.7 to - 0.3, p < 0.04). No significant associations were identified in women. Bone turnover in older Hispanic men with DM2 in our study does not reflect normal pattern of skeletal aging. It is unclear why similar results were not identified in women. We will continue to follow this cohort to investigate longitudinal trend of changes of bone turnover and its relationship with HbA1c in both men and women of this cohort.

Rianon, N.↗

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Regional climate models↗

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗

Assessment of Preconditioner for a USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Method (HANIM) (Invited)

Enhancements to the previously reported mixed-element USM3D Hierarchical Adaptive Nonlinear Iteration Method (HANIM) framework have been made to further improve robustness, efficiency, and accuracy of computational fluid dynamic simulations. The key enhancements include a multi-color line-implicit preconditioner, a discretely consistent symmetry boundary condition, and a line-mapping method for the turbulence source term discretization. The USM3D iterative convergence for the turbulent flows is assessed on four configurations. The configurations include a two-dimensional (2D) bump-in-channel, the 2D NACA 0012 airfoil, a three-dimensional (3D) bump-in-channel, and a 3D hemisphere cylinder. The Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions have been obtained using a Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model and families of uniformly refined nested grids. Two types of HANIM solutions using line- and point-implicit preconditioners have been computed. Additional solutions using the point-implicit preconditioner alone (PA) method that broadly represents the baseline solver technology have also been computed. The line-implicit HANIM shows superior iterative convergence in most cases with progressively increasing benefits on finer grids.

Pandya, Mohagna J.↗

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗

Development of a Direct Fabrication Technique for Full-Shell X-Ray Optics

Future astrophysical missions will require fabrication technology capable of producing high angular resolution x-ray optics. A full-shell direct fabrication approach using modern robotic polishing machines has the potential for producing high resolution, light-weight and affordable x-ray mirrors that can be nested to produce large collecting area. This approach to mirror fabrication, based on the use of the metal substrates coated with nickel phosphorous alloy, is being pursued at MSFC. The design of the polishing fixtures for the direct fabrication, the surface figure metrology techniques used and the results of the polishing experiments are presented.

W.Arnold↗

Adjustable Grazing-Incidence X-Ray Optics

With its unique subarcsecond imaging performance, NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory illustrates the importance of fine angular resolution for x-ray astronomy. Indeed, the future of x-ray astronomy relies upon x-ray telescopes with comparable angular resolution but larger aperture areas. Combined with the special requirements of nested grazing-incidence optics, mass, and envelope constraints of space-borne telescopes render such advances technologically and programmatically challenging. The goal of this technology research is to enable the cost-effective fabrication of large-area, lightweight grazing-incidence x-ray optics with subarcsecond resolution. Toward this end, the project is developing active x-ray optics using slumped-glass mirrors with thin-film piezoelectric arrays for correction of intrinsic or mount-induced distortions.

O'Dell, Stephen L.↗

The Investigation of Chlorate and Perchlorate/Saponite Mixtures as a Possible Source of Oxygen and Chlorine Detected by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Instrument in Gale Crater

The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument on board the Curiosity Rover has detected O2 and HCl gas releases from all analyzed Gale Crater sediments, which are attributed to the presence of perchlorates and/or chlorates in martian sediment. Previous SAM analog laboratory analyses found that most pure perchlorates and chlorates release O2 and HCl at different temperatures than those observed in the SAM data. Subsequent studies examined the effects of perchlorate and chlorate mixtures with Gale Crater analog iron phases, which are known to catalyze oxychlorine decomposition. Several mixtures produced O2 releases at similar temperatures as Gale Crater materials, but most of these mixtures did not produce significant HCl releases comparable to those detected by the SAM instrument. In order to better explain the Gale Crater HCl releases, perchlorates and chlorates were mixed with Gale Crater analog saponite, which is found at abundances from 8 to 20 wt % in the John Klein and Cumberland drill samples. Mixtures of chlorates or perchlorates with calcium-saponite or ferrian-saponite were heated to 1000 deg C in a Labsys EVO differential scanning calorimeter/mass spectrometer configured to operate similarly to the SAM oven/quadrupole mass spectrometer system. Our results demonstrate that all chlorate and perchlorate mixtures produce significant HCl releases below 1000 deg C as well as depressed oxygen peak release temperatures when mixed with saponite. The type of saponite (calcium or ferrian saponite) did not affect the evolved gas results significantly. Saponite/Mg-perchlorate mixtures produced two HCl releases similar to the Cumberland drilled sample. Mg-chlorate mixed with saponite produced HCl releases similar to the Big Sky drilled sample in an eolian sandstone. A mixture of Ca-perchlorate and saponite produced HCl and oxygen releases similar to the Buckskin mudstone drilled sample and the Gobabeb 2 eolian dune material. Ca-chlorate mixed with saponite produced both HCl and oxygen releases within the same range as the Rock-nest windblown deposit, the Greenhorn eolian sandstone, and the John Klein drilled mudstone. Overall, mixtures of perchlorates or chlorates with saponite provide the first explanation for the high temperature HCl releases in addition to the oxygen releases observed in Gale Crater materials.

Clark, J.↗

The Design, Implementation, and Performance of the Astro-H SXS Aperture Assembly and Blocking Filters

The calorimeter array of the JAXA Astro-H (renamed Hitomi) Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) was designed to provide unprecedented spectral resolution of spatially extended cosmic x-ray sources and of all cosmic x-ray sources in the Fe-K band around 6 keV, enabling essential plasma diagnostics. The properties that make the SXS array a powerful x-ray spectrometer also make it sensitive to photons from the entire electromagnetic band, and particles as well. If characterized as a bolometer, it would have a noise equivalent power (NEP) of less than 4x10(exp -18) W/(Hz)0.5(exp 0.5). Thus it was imperative to shield the detector from thermal radiation from the instrument and optical and UV photons from the sky. Additionally, it was necessary to shield the coldest stages of the instrument from the thermal radiation emanating from the warmer stages. Both of these needs are addressed by a series of five thin-film radiation-blocking filters, anchored to the nested temperature stages, that block long-wavelength radiation while minimizing x-ray attenuation. The aperture assembly is a system of barriers, baffles, filter carriers, and filter mounts that supports the filters and inhibits their potential contamination. The three outer filters also have been equipped with thermometers and heaters for decontamination. We present the requirements, design, implementation, and performance of the SXS aperture assembly and blocking filters.

radiation - blocking filters↗

Megafans of the Northern Kalahari Basin

We identify eleven megafans (partial cones of fluvial sediment, >80 km radius) in the northern Kalahari Basin, using several criteria based on VIS and IR remotely sensed data and SRTM-based surface morphology reconstructions. Two other features meet fewer criteria of the form which we class as possible megafans. The northern Kalahari megafans are located in a 1700 km arc around the southern and eastern flanks of the Angola's Bié Plateau, from northern Namibia through northwest Botswana to western Zambia. Three lie in the Owambo subbasin centered on the Etosha Pan, three in the relatively small Okavango rift depression, and five in the Upper Zambezi basin. The population includes the well-known Okavango megafan (150 km), Namibia's Cubango megafan, the largest megafan in the region (350 km long), and the largest nested group (the five major contiguous megafans on the west slopes of the upper Zambezi Valley). We use new, SRTM-based topographic roughness data to discriminate various depositional surfaces within the flat N. Kalahari landscapes. We introduce the concepts of divide megafans, derived megafans, and fan-margin rivers. Conclusions. (i) Eleven megafan cones total an area of ~190,000 sq km. (ii) Different controls on megafan size operate in the three component basins: in the Okavango rift structural controls become the prime constraint on megafan length by controlling basin dimensions. Megafans in the other les constricted basins appear to conform to classic relationships fan area, slope, and feeder-basin area. (iii) Active fans occupy the Okavango rift depression with one in the Owambo basin. The rest of the population are relict but recently active fans (surfaces are relict with respect to activity by the feeder river). (iv) Avulsive behavior of the formative river-axiomatic for the evolution of megafans-has resulted in repeated rearrangements of regional drainage, with likely effects in the study area well back into the Neogene. Divide megafans comprise the majority of the identified features, some of which have delivered water and sediment alternately to neighboring basins in the course of normal avulsion activity, likely resulting in significant changes in the hydrologies of two of the study-area subbasins. (v) Paleoclimatic inferences extracted from fluvial and lacustrine sediments therefore need to take account of avulsion-driven drainage configurations, especially where these are autogenically controlled.

Wilkinson, M. J.↗

On the Alignment and Focusing of the Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS)

The Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS) is a NASA sounding rocket instrument that is designed to observe soft X-ray emissions from 24 - 6.0 A (0.5 - 2.0 keV energies) in the solar atmosphere. For the rst time, high-temperature, low-emission plasma will be observed directly with 5 arcsecond spatial resolution and 22 mA spectral resolution. The unique optical design consists of a Wolter - I telescope and a 3-optic grazing- incidence spectrometer. The spectrometer utilizes a nite conjugate mirror pair and a blazed planar, varied line spaced grating, which is directly printed on a silicon substrate using e-beam lithography. The grating design is being nalized and the grating will be fabricated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Izentis LLC. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is producing the nickel replicated telescope and spectrometer mirrors using the same facilities and techniques as those developed for the ART-XC and FOXSI mirrors. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) will mount and align the optical sub-assemblies based on previous experience with similar instruments, such as the Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT). The telescope and spectrometer assembly will be aligned in visible light through the implementation of a theodolite and reference mirrors, in addition to the centroid detector assembly (CDA) { a device designed to align the AXAF-I nested mirrors. Focusing of the telescope and spectrometer will be achieved using the X-ray source in the Stray Light Facility (SLF) at MSFC. We present results from an alignment sensitivity analysis performed on the on the system and we also discuss the method for aligning and focusing MaGIXS.

solar↗

Megafans-Some New Perspectives from a Global Study

A global study of megafans (greater than 100 km long) has revealed their widespread existence on all continents, with almost 200 documented, 93 in Africa where research is most thorough. The largest measures 705 km. Megafans are a major subset of "DFS" (distributive fluvial systems, a category that includes all fan-like features greater than 30 km long). 1. Many researchers now recognize megafans as different from floodplains, small coarse-grained alluvial fans, and deltas. Although smaller architectural elements in megafans are the same as those encountered in floodplains (channel, overbank, etc.), larger architectures differ because of the unconfined setting of megafans, versus the valley-confined setting of floodplains. 2. A length continuum is now documented between steep alluvial fans 10-20 km in length, and fluvial fans 30-50 km long. This implies a continuum of process from end-member alluvial fan processes (e.g. high-energy flows that emplace gravels, debris-flow units) to the relatively fine-grained channel and overbank deposits common to purely fluvial fans. Combinations of these different processes will then occur in many mid-sized fans. 3. The global distribution suggests a prima facie relationship with tectonic environment rather than climatic zones, with local controls being the slope of the formative river and the existence of a basin subsiding below the long profile of the river. But the global population has revealed that most megafans are relict. So it is possible that further research will show relationships to prior climatic regimes. 4. Megafans can have regional importance: e.g., along the east flank of the central Andes, nested megafans total approximately 750,000 km2-and 1.2m km2 if all megafans in S. America are counted. Modern megafan landscapes thus have basinal importance, orders of magnitude greater than alluvial fan bajadas. 5. Because so many aggrading basins are dominated today by DFS, it is claimed that DFS ought to be significant in the subsurface; and that existing fluvial models therefore may not apply to the majority of fluvial sedimentary units. Arguments have been raised against this view, but as modern megafan systems become better known they are rapidly being applied as a model in many fluvial basins. A small literature has arisen with apparent examples from every part of the world.

Wilkinson, M. Justin↗

Pioneering a Biobased UAS

With the exponential growth of interest in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and their vast array of applications in both space exploration and terrestrial uses such as the delivery of medicine and monitoring the environment, the 2014 Stanford-Brown-Spelman iGEM team is pioneering the development of a fully biological UAV for scientific and humanitarian missions. The prospect of a biologically-produced UAV presents numerous advantages over the current manufacturing paradigm. First, a foundational architecture built by cells allows for construction or repair in locations where it would be difficult to bring traditional tools of production. Second, a major limitation of current research with UAVs is the size and high power consumption of analytical instruments, which require bulky electrical components and large fuselages to support their weight. By moving these functions into cells with biosensing capabilities – for example, a series of cells engineered to report GFP, green fluorescent protein, when conditions exceed a certain threshold concentration of a compound of interest, enabling their detection post-flight – these problems of scale can be avoided. To this end, we are working to engineer cells to synthesize cellulose acetate as a novel bioplastic, characterize biological methods of waterproofing the material, and program this material’s systemic biodegradation. In addition, we aim to use an “amberless” system to prevent horizontal gene transfer from live cells on the material to microorganisms in the flight environment. So far, we have: successfully transformed Gluconacetobacter hansenii, a cellulose-producing bacterium, with a series of promoters to test transformation efficiency before adding the acetylation genes; isolated protein bands present in the wasp nest material; transformed the cellulose-degrading genes into Escherichia coli; and we have confirmed that the amberless construct prevents protein expression in wild-type cells. In addition, as part of our human outreach project, we have been in touch with leaders in the fields of UAVs, synthetic biology, and earth sciences, and it is clear that biodegradable UAVs could have a significant impact on the industry.

Escherichia↗

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

Uncertainty↗

Toward Large-Area Sub-Arcsecond X-Ray Telescopes II

In order to advance significantly scientific objectives, future x-ray astronomy missions will likely call for x-ray telescopes with large aperture areas (approx. = 3 sq m) and fine angular resolution (approx. = 1"). Achieving such performance is programmatically and technologically challenging due to the mass and envelope constraints of space-borne telescopes and to the need for densely nested grazing-incidence optics. Such an x-ray telescope will require precision fabrication, alignment, mounting, and assembly of large areas (approx. = 600 sq m) of lightweight (approx. = 2 kg/sq m areal density) high-quality mirrors, at an acceptable cost (approx. = 1 M$/sq m of mirror surface area). This paper reviews relevant programmatic and technological issues, as well as possible approaches for addressing these issues-including direct fabrication of monocrystalline silicon mirrors, active (in-space adjustable) figure correction of replicated mirrors, static post-fabrication correction using ion implantation, differential erosion or deposition, and coating-stress manipulation of thin substrates.

Shi Ye↗

ANOPP2 User's Manual: Version 1.2

This manual documents the Aircraft NOise Prediction Program 2 (ANOPP2). ANOPP2 is a toolkit that includes a framework, noise prediction methods, and peripheral software to aid a user in predicting and understanding aircraft noise. This manual includes an explanation of the overall design and structure of ANOPP2, including a brief introduction to aircraft noise prediction and the ANOPP2 background, philosophy, and architecture. The concept of nested acoustic data surfaces and its application to a mixed-fidelity noise prediction are presented. The structure and usage of ANOPP2, which includes the communication between the user, the ANOPP2 framework, and noise prediction methods, are presented for two scenarios: wind-tunnel and flight. These scenarios serve to provide the user with guidance and documentation references for performing a noise prediction using ANOPP2.

Lopes, L. V.↗

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets are expected to be performed in the next decade by space-based telescopes equipped with optical wavelength coronagraphs and integral field spectrographs, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs an albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. Here we apply this methodology to simulated spectra of cool giant planets. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H2-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise, in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic reflected-light spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a likely observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high accuracy, while parameters uncertainties are model-dependent.

spectroscopy↗