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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in Tortuosity Estimates for Porous Electrodes

Measuring tortuosity in porous electrodes is important for understanding rate capability and optimizing design. Here, we describe an approach to determine electrode tortuosities and quantify the associated uncertainties by fitting a P2D model to discharge profiles from a standard rate capability test. A dimensionless current is identified as a design-of-experiment parameter that can be used to identify experiments that return confident estimates of tortuosity, even when other model parameters are not known with certainty. This approach is applied to analysis of L i x V 3 O 8 (LVO) electrodes and L i x N i 0.33 M n 0.33 C o 0.33 O 2 (NMC) electrodes. The details of the assumptions made in these measurements and their impact on the reported uncertainties are discussed. We also perform an uncertainty analysis on the standard method for quantifying tortuosity in the literature: electrochemical impedance spectroscopy collected under blocking electrolyte conditions. We find that confident estimates can be obtained using this approach even when uncertainties in equivalent circuit model parameters are considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving ProtoDUNE pion cross-section measurements with NuGraph Michel-electron tagging

Understanding hadron-argon interactions is essential for precise neutrino energy reconstruction and final-state interaction modeling in liquid-argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments such as DUNE. In particular, pion absorption and charge-exchange processes constitute significant sources of systematic uncertainty in neutrino oscillation measurements. ProtoDUNE-SP, a large-scale LArTPC prototype operated at the CERN Neutrino Platform and exposed to charged-particle test beams in the few-GeV range, enables direct measurements of these processes. This work focuses on the measurement of differential cross sections for pion absorption and charge exchange using the 2 GeV/c pion beam data from the ProtoDUNE-SP run. A key component of this analysis is the identification of Michel electrons from $\pi \rightarrow \mu \rightarrow e$ decay chains, which helps separate different interaction topologies and improves background rejection. Michel electron identification will also assist in reliably calibrating the electromagnetic response in ProtoDUNE-SP data and for the future DUNE detectors. In this analysis, we apply NuGraph to identify Michel electrons. NuGraph is a graph neural network that models detector hits as nodes connected by spatial and temporal edges for particle and topology classification in LArTPC detectors. We first benchmark NuGraph’s Michel electron classification performance using ICEBERG data, a small-scale LArTPC prototype used for DUNE electronics and reconstruction development, and then transfer the approach to ProtoDUNE-SP. This poster presents the analysis strategy, NuGraph-based classification studies, and discusses how these developments are expected to improve the pion cross-section measurement.

Razafinime, Soamasina Herilala [Cincinnati U.] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2021

National Opacity Program: Analysis of Opacity-relevant X-ray Emission Spectra (Milestone Report ID 7121)

We have produced high energy density iron plasmas at temperatures above 1 keV and electron densities exceeding 1023 cm -3 (~ 1 g/cm 3 ) using the Orion laser at the Atomic Weapons Establishment. These plasmas were created by irradiating 50 µm diameter layered targets with frequency doubled (λ = 527 nm), 1 ps laser pulses focused to a 100 µm diameter producing an irradiance of ~ 2 x 10 18 W/cm 2 . The buried layer targets consist of 160 nm iron sulfide (FeS), 60 nm potassium chloride (KCl), and 15 nm carbon. The combined layers are tamped on both sides with 3 µm of parylene-N. The x-ray emission from the plasma was measured using two time-resolved, and four time-integrated Bragg crystal spectrometers, as well as one time-integrated imaging system. One time-resolved x-ray spectrometer measured emission from L-shell transitions in highly charged iron, the other from K-shell transitions in helium-like S 14+ and hydrogen-like S 15+ . The time-integrated spectrometers are intensity-calibrated and measured emission from K-shell transitions in sulfur, potassium, chlorine, and both K-shell and L-shell transitions in iron. The density and temperature of the plasma were determined by modeling the x-ray spectra using different spectral and hydrodynamic modeling packages. A brief overview of the uncertainties associated with the measurements and models are presented. We also give an overview of our 1-D HYDRA-DCA radiation-hydrodynamics model and improvements for future work. Our results aid in assessing experimental uncertainties associated with plasma uniformity and with x-ray emission employed as diagnostics in opacity experiments at temperatures and densities not achievable elsewhere and represent a significant step in creating and diagnosing plasmas near LTE. These results are summarized as part of the completion requirements for milestone 7121

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 plume evolution in a depleted natural gas reservoir: Modeling of conformance uncertainty reduction over time

Uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO 2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse-gas emission-mitigation for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here, we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to update operational models. We consider a case study of GCS in a depleted natural gas reservoir, with CO 2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care period. We constructed a detailed model to generate the actual model output, which is considered synthetic observation data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an operator would model such a site are then run and compared against actual model output at specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is updated and improved using the synthetic observation data from the actual model at the same time intervals. Model parameter values and model features needed to be updated over time to improve matches to the actual model. These kinds of model adjustments would be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. Uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance decreases with time: extent of the CO 2 plume up-dip migration, and radial extent of the pressure pulse. This conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about uncertainty in long-term fate of CO 2 at GCS sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gamma-ray spectrum variations for surface measurements of uranium hexafluoride cylinders

Here, this work aims to characterize features that contribute to the spectral variations that appear in gamma-23 ray spectra of filled uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) cylinders. While the enrichment of the UF 6 in a 24 cylinder can greatly affect gamma-ray spectra at peaks such as the 185.7 keV peak and be used to 25 verify enrichment, many other characteristics of a filled UF 6 cylinder can affect the spectra. These 26 characteristics vary on a per-cylinder basis and can include: the time between when a cylinder was 27 filled and when it was measured; the previous fill history of a cylinder; how the cylinder was most 28 recently filled; the UF 6 geometric distribution within the cylinder; and the measurement location 29 along the cylinder. This work explores spectral variations seen in measurement data and uses 30 validated simulation models to find trends in these uncertainties. These trends are analyzed to observe 31 how each parameter can contribute to the overall uncertainty of UF 6 spectral measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy dependence of prompt fissions neutron multiplicity in the 239 Pu(n, ƒ) reaction

Accurate multiplicities of prompt fission neutrons emitted in neutron-induced fission on a large energy range are essential for fundamental and applied nuclear physics. Measuring them to high precision for radioactive fissioning nuclides remains, however, an experimental challenge. In this work, the average prompt-neutron multiplicity emitted in the 239 Pu(n, ƒ) reaction was extracted as a function of the incident-neutron energy, over the range 1-700 MeV, with a novel technique, which allowed to minimize and correct for the main sources of bias and thus achieve unprecedented precision. At low energies, our data validate for the first time the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data evaluation with an independent measurement and reduce the evaluated uncertainty by up to 60%. This work opens up the possibility of precisely measuring prompt fission neutron multiplicities on highly radioactive nuclei relevant for an essential component of energy production world-wide.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

ANNIE: the Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a Gadolinium-loaded water Cherenkov detector placed in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, USA. The primary physics goal of ANNIE is to perform neutrino cross-section measurements that will constrain systematic uncertainties in the next generation of long-baseline neutrino experiments. The first measurement will be the multiplicity of final-state neutrons from neutrino-nucleus interactions in water. Alongside these measurements, ANNIE has achieved the first ever deployments of two novel detector technologies in a neutrino beam: Large Area Picosecond Photodetectors (LAPPDs) and Water-based Liquid Scintillator (WbLS). LAPPDs are micro-channel-plate-based devices that provide timing resolution of ~100 picoseconds and sub-centimeter spatial resolution. WbLS combines the low attenuation and Cherenkov production of pure water with the high light-yield and low detection threshold of liquid scintillator. This talk will discuss the status of ANNIE's physics and R&D measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty amplification due to density/refractive index gradients in background-oriented schlieren experiments

Here, we theoretically analyze the effect of density/refractive index gradients on the measurement precision of background-oriented schlieren (BOS) experiments by deriving the Cramer–Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the 2D centroid estimation process. A model is derived for the diffraction limited image of a dot viewed through a medium containing density gradients that includes the effect of the experimental parameters such as the magnification and f-number. It is shown using the model that nonlinearities in the density gradient field lead to blurring of the dot image. This blurring amplifies the effect of image noise on the centroid estimation process, leading to an increase in the CRLB and a decrease in the measurement precision. The ratio of position uncertainties of a dot in the reference and gradient images is shown to be a function of the ratio of the dot diameters and dot intensities. We termed this parameter the amplification ratio (A F ), and a methodology for reporting position uncertainties in tracking-based BOS measurements is proposed. The theoretical predictions of the dot position estimation variance from the CRLB are compared to ray tracing simulations, and agreement is obtained. The uncertainty amplification is also demonstrated on experimental BOS images of flow induced by a spark discharge, where it is seen that regions of high amplification ratio correspond to regions of density gradients. This analysis elucidates the dependence of the position uncertainty on density and refractive index gradient-induced distortion parameters, provides a methodology for accounting its effect on uncertainty quantification and provides a framework for optimizing experiment design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mass measurements of neutron-rich indium isotopes for r -process studies

A new series of neutron-rich indium mass measurements is reported from the TITAN multiple-reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer (MR-TOF-MS). These mass measurements cover 125-134 In (N = 76–85) and include ground states as well as isomeric states. The masses of nuclei in this region are known to be of great importance for accurately modeling r-process nucleosynthesis, and the significance of the reported neutron-rich indium masses is discussed in this context. Results are compared with earlier experimental data where available as well as theoretical mass models. The measurements reported here include the first mass measurements of 133,134 In, as well as the first direct mass measurement of 132 In. The masses of 125-131 In ground states and several isomers were previously measured to higher precision by Penning trap mass spectrometry, which also resolved some low-lying isomers that could not be resolved in this work. The earlier Penning trap measurements serve as excellent cross-checks for the MR-TOF-MS measurements, and in some cases the MR-TOF-MS measurements improve the literature uncertainties of higher-lying isomer masses and excitation energies. Finally, a new isomeric state for 128 In, recently reported for the first time by the JYFLTRAP group, is also confirmed by the TITAN MR-TOF-MS, with a measured excitation energy of 1813(17) keV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the muon magnetic anomaly to 0.20 ppm by the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g-2$ experiment at Fermilab aims to measure the muon magnetic moment anomaly, $a_{\mu}=(g-2)/2$, with a final accuracy of 0.14 parts per million (ppm). The experiment’s first result was published in 2021, based on data collected in 2018, and in 2023 a new result was published based on two more years of data taking, 2019 and 2020. The combination of the two results from Fermilab and the previous one from Brookhaven National Laboratory brought the uncertainty on the experimental measurement of $a_{\mu}$ to the unprecedented value of 0.19 ppm. This paper will present details about the improvements of statistical and systematic uncertainties on $a_{\mu}$ since the 2021 result.

Cotrozzi, Lorenzo [Liverpool U.; INFN, Pisa]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prospects for strong coupling measurement at hadron colliders using soft-drop jet mass

We compute the soft-drop jet-mass distribution from pp collisions to NNLL accuracy while including nonperturbative corrections through a field-theory based formalism. Using these calculations, we assess the theoretical uncertainties on an αs precision measurement due to higher order perturbative effects, nonperturbative corrections, and PDF uncertainty. We identify which soft-drop parameters are well-suited for measuring αs, and find that higher-logarithmic resummation has a qualitatively important effect on the shape of the jet-mass distribution. We find that quark jets and gluon jets have similar sensitivity to αs, and emphasize that experimentally distinguishing quark and gluon jets is not required for an αs measurement. We conclude that measuring αs to the 10% level is feasible now, and with improvements in theory a 5% level measurement is possible. Getting down to the 1% level to be competitive with other state-of-the-art measurements will be challenging.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling

The Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) package includes an inverse modeling tool that is helpful in identifying characteristics of unknown radioactive materials. Traditionally, uncertainties in this analysis were derived solely from measurement data quality and the fit of synthetic spectra. This paper aims to rigorously quantify additional sources of uncertainty, focusing on uncertainties arising from measurements being analyzed, Detector Response Function (DRF) characterization, and DRF extrapolation. Applying these findings to the BeRPBall benchmark data set, we demonstrated the impact of these uncertainties on plutonium and polyethylene estimates. The results underscore the importance of incorporating diverse uncertainty sources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of GADRAS’s inverse modeling capabilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adjusting neutrino interaction models and evaluating uncertainties using NOvA near detector data

The two-detector design of the NOvA neutrino oscillation experiment, in which two functionally identical detectors are exposed to an intense neutrino beam, aids in canceling leading order effects of cross-section uncertainties. However, limited knowledge of neutrino interaction cross sections still gives rise to some of the largest systematic uncertainties in current oscillation measurements. We show contemporary models of neutrino interactions to be discrepant with data from NOvA, consistent with discrepancies seen in other experiments. Adjustments to neutrino interaction models in GENIE are presented, creating an effective model that improves agreement with our data. We also describe systematic uncertainties on these models, including uncertainties on multi-nucleon interactions from a newly developed procedure using NOvA near detector data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geometry Optimization for a Quadrupole Resonator at Jefferson Lab

The quadrupole resonator (QPR) is a sample characterization tool to measure the RF properties of superconducting materials using the calorime-try method at different temperatures, magnetic fields, and frequencies. Such resonators are cur-rently operating at CERN and HZB but suffer from Lorentz force detuning and modes overlap-ping, resulting in higher uncertainties in surface resistance measurement. Using the two CERN's QPR model iterations, the geometry was opti-mized via electromagnetic and mechanical simu-lations to eliminate these issues. The new QPR version was modelled for an increasing range of magnetic fields. The magnetic field is concentrat-ed at the center of the sample to reduce the un-certainty in surface resistance measurements sig-nificantly. This paper discusses the QPR geome-try optimization for the new version of QPR, which is now progressing toward fabrication.

Bira, S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoproduction of K0K0-bar with the GlueX Experiment

In this dissertation, we study photoproduction of K0 ?K 0 through the KSKLp and KSKSp ?nal states with the GlueX Phase-I (GlueX-I) data set. We measure the spin-density matrix elements (SDMEs) and di?erential cross section of ?(1020) ! KSKL to better understand photoproduction of light vector mesons. A mass independent Partial Wave Analysis (PWA) of the KSKL and KSKS meson spectrum below 2 GeV is also undertaken to study the meson spectrum with JPC = even++ and odd??. The ?(1020) di?erential cross section is measured at E = 8:2 ? 8:8 GeV and ?t = 0:15 ? 1:00 GeV2. The di?erential cross section is well described by an exponential decay with slope 4:44?0:01 GeV?2 and the integrated cross section is determined to be 295:7?0:4 nb, only statistical uncertainties are quoted. Both measurements are consistent and far more precise than the previous measurement by Ballam et al. [1]. The ?(1020) SDMEs were measured in nine bins of ?t in the same range. At low ?t, we ?nd the data were consistent with s-channel helicity conservation, SCHC, i. e. the only non-zero SDMEs were ?1 1?1 = ?Im(?2 1?1) = 1=2. At higher ?t, the SDMEs deviate from SCHC and the measurements indicate this is due to natural parity exchange since we observe that the SDMEs are consistent with zero unnatural exchange. We also ?find that the contribution from helicity double-flip amplitudes is consistent with zero. The measured SDMEs are in poor agreement with theoretical predictions put forward by JPAC [35]. These measurements will serve as input to re?ne models of production processes, which will be essential for the interpretation of possible signals of exotic mesons in GlueX. Analysis of the spectrum above the ?(1020) indicates the presence of at least three particles at ? 1:50, ? 1:75, and 2:20 GeV. We employ simple parametrizations of the resonance line shape based on relativistic Breit-Wigner functions considering cases with and without interference. The resonance at ? 1:50 GeV is not identifi?ed as any specifi?c resonance, but could be due to interference between the ?(1450) and !(1420). Our models favor the resonance at ~1:75 GeV as the X(1750) rather than the ?(1680). We ?find that introducing a third Breit-Winger into the models improves the ?t quality with the ?2/ndf going from 1.75 to 1.59 and 1.41 to 1.18 for models without and with interference respectively. A PWA of the KSKL spectrum indicates that the spectrum is consistent with exclusively spin-1 contribution up to ? 1:6 GeV. Above ? 1:6 GeV we ?find evidence for a small spin-3 contribution. We also ?nd that the spectrum predominantly positive reflectivity up to ? 1:6 GeV, after which the spectrum becomes a nearly equal mix of both. The KSKS system shows a rich spectrum with multiple resonance structures but is more statistically limited than the KSKL system. Modelling the line shape we ?find evidence at greater than 10? level in favor of a resonance at ? 1:75 GeV. The model parameters suggest this resonance is the f0(1710). The PWA of the KSKS system was inconclusive. However, using a small set of amplitudes suggests that the spin-2 contribution to the spectrum is primarily in the range 1:2?1:6 GeV, where f2(1270), a2(1320) and f02 (1525) are expected.

Linera, Gabriel Rodriguez↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding neutrinos with accelerator beams and liquid argon time-projection chambers: ICARUS and DUNE

A global program of experiments has worked towards characterizing neutrino oscillation over the past few decades. However, important parameters remain to be measured, and mysteries remain to be elucidated. Current and upcoming experiments are targeting the open questions and probing the consistency of the neutrino oscillation paradigm. Likewise, the liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) has emerged as a sensitive particle detection technology for neutrino experiments. A current generation of LAr TPC detectors are being used to study neutrinos while also gaining important experience in operating and analyzing with this technology. SBND, MicroBooNE, and ICARUS have collected or are collecting data from beams at Fermilab (near Chicago) to explore the possibility of a sterile neutrino and/or other beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics. SBND and ICARUS will be used to conduct a two-detector analysis as part of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program. Additionally, these detectors are enabling important neutrino interaction studies necessary to prepare for the next generation of oscillation experiments. One such oscillation experiment that will come online over the next years is the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), which will install multiple 10 kiloton LAr TPCs underground in South Dakota (south of Saskatchewan) to conduct oscillation measurements with neutrinos originating in a beamline at Fermilab. A detector complex will be installed at Fermilab as well, to study the beam before the expected flavour oscillations. This “near detector” will also employ a LAr TPC, with a segmented and pixel-based design, as well as other technologies to constrain uncertainties in the oscillation measurement by characterizing the beam and neutrino interactions. This talk will discuss the ICARUS and DUNE experiments, the LAr TPC detector technology, and the efforts to realize and leverage these experiments to better understand the properties of neutrinos.

Howard, Bruce L. [Fermilab]↗