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Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Selection and Assessment of Predictions of the Mars Pathfinder Landing Site

The successful landing of the Mars Pathfinder spacecraft on Mars allows the review of the process of selecting the landing site and assessing predictions made for the site based on Viking and Earth-based data. Selection of the landing site for Mars Pathfinder was a two-phase process. The first phase took place from October 1993 to June 1994 and involved: initial identification of engineering constraints, definition of environmental conditions at the site for spacecraft design, and evaluation of the scientific potential of different landing sites. This phase culminated with the first "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop", held at the Lunar and Planetary Institute in Houston, Texas on April 18-19, 1994, in which suggested approaches and landing sites were solicited from the entire scientific community. A preliminary site was selected by the project for design purposes in June 1994. The second phase took place from July 1994 to March 1996 and involved: developing criteria for evaluating site safety using images and remote sensing data, testing of the spacecraft and landing subsystems (with design improvements) to establish quantitative engineering constraints on landing site characteristics, evaluating all potential landing sites on Mars, and certification of the site by the project. This phase included a second open workshop, "Mars Pathfinder Landing Site Workshop II: Characteristics of the Ares Vallis Region and Field Trips in the Channeled Scabland, Washington" held in Spokane and Moses Lake September 24-30, 1995 and formal acceptance of the site by NASA Headquarters. Engineering constraints on Pathfinder landing sites were developed from the initial design of the spacecraft and the entry, descent and landing scenario. The site must be within 5 degrees of the subsolar latitude at the time of landing (15N for maximum solar power and flexible communications with Earth. It also must be below 0 km elevation to enable enough time for the parachute to bring the lander to the proper terminal velocity for landing. The entire landing ellipse, which is 70 km by 200 km due to navigational, ephemeris and atmospheric uncertainties, must be free of steep slopes, scarps and obvious hazards in Viking orbiter images, have acceptable radar reflectivity, moderate rock abundances and have little or no dust. Scientific considerations of the Mars Pathfinder payload and mission indicate that analyses of "grab bag" samples at the mouths of outflow channels can offer a first order assessment of a variety of rock types on Mars. Highland sites offer the advantage of in situ analysis of ancient rocks on Mars that record crustal differentiation and the nature of the early environment. Dark gray sites offer the potential of analyzing unweathered and unoxidized materials. Following a general assessment of the safety of different sites, a preliminary selection of a "grab bag" site was made. This site, Ares Vallis, is near the mouth of an outflow channel that may contain ancient Noachian terrain, Hesperian ridged plains, and reworked channel materials. All potential landing sites on Mars that met basic safety criteria were analyzed in detail. Sites (100 by 200 km target ellipses) were considered safe if they were below 0 km elevation, were free of obvious hazards (high relief surface features) in high-resolution (< 50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and had acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, high thermal inertia, moderate rock abundance, low red to violet ratio, and low albedo. Only 4 sites on Mars met all the above criteria, which included 1995 opposition 3.5 cm delay-Doppler radar data. Complete data were evaluated for 7 sites and the Viking landing sites for comparison for all the above criteria as well as crater abundance, hill and mesa abundance, slopes over meter to kilometer scales, low altitude winds (from global circulation models and slopes), the size-frequency distribution of large rocks, as well as rover trafficability and science potential. Discussion of potential hazards at Ares Vallis using a variety of data sets (including radar) at a second open workshop, indicated this site cannot be shown to be any more hazardous than the Viking landing sites. Field trips to the Channeled Scabland and the Ephrata Fan, analogs for Ares Vallis and the landing site, respectively, provided valuable insight into possible geologic processes and potential surface characteristics. Three sites met all the data requirements and safety criteria for landing Pathfinder. Ares Vallis was selected by the project because it appeared acceptably safe (although it appeared to have greater rock abundances than other sites, its elevation was likely the best known) and offered the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types expected to be deposited by catastrophic floods, which would enable addressing first-order scientific questions such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early martian environment and its subsequent evolution. The selection was reviewed by an external board at a number of meetings and accepted, and the site was approved by NASA Headquarters. Data gathered by the Pathfinder lander' and rover provides the opportunity to test the predictions made for the site in the selection process based on remote observations from Earth, orbit, and the surface. The discussion below is taken from Golombek et al. to which the reader is referred for a more complete discussion and a complete list of references, which are omitted here for brevity. Many characteristics of the landing site are consistent with its being shaped and deposited by the Ares and Tiu catastrophic floods. The rocky surface is consistent a depositional plain comprising semi-rounded pebbles, cobbles and tabular boulders (some of which appear imbricated and/or inclined in the direction of flow) that appear similar to depositional plains in terrestrial catastrophic floods. The Twin Peaks appear to be streamlined hills in lander images, which is consistent with interpretations of larger hills in Viking orbiter images of the region that suggest the lander is on the flank of a broad, gentle ridge trending northeast from Twin Peaks. This ridge, which is the rise to the north of the lander, is aligned in the downstream direction from the Ares and Tiu Valles floods, and may be a debris tail deposited in the wake of the Twin Peaks. Channels visible throughout the scene may be a result of late stage drainage. As predicted by delay-Doppler radar measurements and tracking results, the average elevation of the center of the site was about the same as Viking Lander I relative to the 6.1 mbar geoid. The Doppler tracking and two-way ranging estimate for the elevation of the spacecraft is only 45 in lower than the Viking I Lander and within 100 in of that expected, which is within the uncertainties of the measurements. After landing, surface pressures and winds (5-10 m/s) were found to be similar to expectations based on Viking data, although temperatures were about 10 K warmer. The temperature profile below 50 km was also roughly 20 K warmer. As a result, predicted densities were 5% higher near the surface and up to 40% lower at 50 km but within the entry, descent and landing design margins. The populations of craters and small hills and the slopes of the hills measured in high-resolution (38 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and the radar derived slopes of the landing site are all consistent with observations of these properties in the lander images. A rocky surface was expected from Viking Infra-Red Thermal Mapper (IRTM) observations and comparisons with the Viking landing sites. The observed cumulative fraction of area covered by rocks with diameters greater than 3 cm and heights greater than 0.5 in (potentially hazardous to landing) at Ares is similar to that predicted by IRTM observations and models of Viking lander and Earth analog rock size-frequency distributions. The IRTM prediction postulated an effective thermal inertia of 30 (10(exp -3) cgs units - cal/cubic cm/s(exp 0.5)/K) for the rock population, but we obtain a slightly different effective thermal inertia for the actual rock population. The validity of interpretations of radar echoes prior to landing are supported by a simple radar echo model, an estimate of the reflectivity of the soil from its bulk density, and the fraction of area covered by rocks. In the calculations, the soil produces the quasi-specular echo and the rocks produce the diffuse echo. The derived quasispecular cross section is comparable to the cross-sections and reflectivities reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. The model yields a diffuse echo that is modestly larger than the polarized diffuse echo reported for 3.5-cm wavelength observations. At 12.5-cm wavelength, similar rock populations at Ares and the Viking I site were expected because the diffuse echoes are comparable, but the large normal reflectivities suggests that bulk densities of the soils at depth are greater than those at the surface. We also obtain a fine-component inertia near 8.4 which agrees with the fine-component inertia of 8.7 (in 10(exp -3) cgs units) estimated from thermal observations from orbit by the IRTM; for this estimate, we used a bulk thermal inertia of 10.4 for the landing site, an effective thermal inertia near 40 (10(exp -3) cgs units) for the rock population, and a graphical representation of Kieffer's model. Color and albedo data for Ares suggested surfaces of materials at Ares Vallis would be relatively dust free or unweathered prior to landing compared with the materials at the Viking landing sites. This suggestion is supported by the abundance of relatively dark-gray rocks at Ares and their relative rarity at the Viking landing sites, where rocks are commonly coated with bright red dust. Finally, the 40 km long Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in Washington state, which was deposited where c

Golombek, M. P.↗

SPRITE: A TPS Test Bed for Ground and Flight

Engineers in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA Ames Research Center developed a fully instrumented, small atmospheric entry probe called SPRITE (Small Probe Reentry Investigation for TPS Engineering). SPRITE, conceived as a flight test bed for thermal protection materials, was tested at full scale in an arc-jet facility so that the aerothermal environments the probe experiences over portions of its flight trajectory and in the arc-jet are similar. This ground-to-flight traceability enhances the ability of mission designers to evaluate margins needed in the design of thermal protection systems (TPS) of larger scale atmospheric entry vehicles. SPRITE is a 14-inch diameter, 45 deg. sphere-cone with a conical aftbody and designed for testing in the NASA Ames Aerodynamic Heating Facility (AHF). The probe is a two-part aluminum shell with PICA (phenolic impregnated carbon ablator) bonded on the forebody and LI-2200 (Shuttle tile material) bonded to the aftbody. Plugs with embedded thermocouples, similar to those installed in the heat shield of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), and a number of distributed sensors are integrated into the design. The data from these sensors are fed to an innovative, custom-designed data acquisition system also integrated with the test article. Two identical SPRITE models were built and successfully tested in late 2010-early 2011, and the concept is currently being modified to enable testing of conformable and/or flexible materials.

Ablation↗

Venus small volcano classification and description

The high resolution and global coverage of the Magellan radar image data set allows detailed study of the smallest volcanoes on the planet. A modified classification scheme for volcanoes less than 20 km in diameter is shown and described. It is based on observations of all members of the 556 significant clusters or fields of small volcanoes located and described by this author during data collection for the Magellan Volcanic and Magmatic Feature Catalog. This global study of approximately 10 exp 4 volcanoes provides new information for refining small volcano classification based on individual characteristics. Total number of these volcanoes was estimated to be 10 exp 5 to 10 exp 6 planetwide based on pre-Magellan analysis of Venera 15/16, and during preparation of the global catalog, small volcanoes were identified individually or in clusters in every C1-MIDR mosaic of the Magellan data set. Basal diameter (based on 1000 measured edifices) generally ranges from 2 to 12 km with a mode of 34 km, and follows an exponential distribution similar to the size frequency distribution of seamounts as measured from GLORIA sonar images. This is a typical distribution for most size-limited natural phenomena unlike impact craters which follow a power law distribution and continue to infinitely increase in number with decreasing size. Using an exponential distribution calculated from measured small volcanoes selected globally at random, we can calculate total number possible given a minimum size. The paucity of edifice diameters less than 2 km may be due to inability to identify very small volcanic edifices in this data set; however, summit pits are recognizable at smaller diameters, and 2 km may represent a significant minimum diameter related to style of volcanic eruption. Guest, et al, discussed four general types of small volcanic edifices on Venus: (1) small lava shields; (2) small volcanic cones; (3) small volcanic domes; and (4) scalloped margin domes ('ticks'). Steep-sided domes or 'pancake domes', larger than 20 km in diameter, were included with the small volcanic domes. For the purposes of this study, only volcanic edifices less than 20 km in diameter are discussed. This forms a convenient cutoff since most of the steep-sided domes ('pancake domes') and scalloped margin domes ('ticks') are 20 to 100 km in diameter, are much less numerous globally than are the smaller diameter volcanic edifices (2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower in total global number), and do not commonly occur in large clusters or fields of large numbers of edifices.

Aubele, J. C.↗

Post-Gondwana geomorphic evolution of southwestern Africa: Implications for hte controls on landscape development from observations and numerical experiments

The relationship between morphology and surficial geology is used to quantify the denudation that has occurred across southwestern Africa sicne the fragmentation of Gondwana during the Early Mesozoic. Two main points emerge. Signficant denudation, of the order of kilometers, is widespread except in the Kalahari region of the continental interior. The denudation is systematically distributed so that the continental exterior catchment, draining directly to the Cape basin, is denuded to a greater depth than the interior catchment inland of the Great Escarpment. The analysis also implies tha the majority of the denudation occurred before the beginning of the Cenozoic for both teh exerior and interior catchments. Existing models of landscape development are reviewed, and implications of the denudation chronology are incorporated into a revised conceptual model. This revision implies tha thte primary effect of rifting on the subsequent landscape evolution is that it generates two distinct drainage regimes. A marginal upwarp, or rift flank uplift, separates rejuvenated rivers that drain into the subsiding rift from rivers in the continetal interior that are deflected but not rejuvenated. The two catchments evolve independently unless they are integrated by breaching of hte marginal upwarp. If this occurs, the exterior baselevel is communicated to the interior catchment that is denuded accordingly. Denudation rates generally decrease as the margin evolves, and this decrease is reinforced by the exposure of substrate that is resistant to denudation and/or a change to a more arid climate. The observations do not reveal a particular style of smaller-scale landscape evolution, sucha s escarpment retreat, that is responsible for the differential denudation across the region. It is proposed that numerical model experiments, which reflect the observational insights at the large scale, may identify the smaller-scale controls on escarpment development if the model and natural systems are analogous. Four numerical experiments are presented in which the roles of antecedent topography, resistant substrate, climte change, and lowering the baselevel of the interior catchment are investigated for an initially high elevation margin bordered by an escarpment. The model results suggest several styles of landscape evolution that are compatible with the observations. Escarpments may retreat in a regular manner, but they also degrade and are destroyed, only to reform at the drainage divide between exterior and interior catchments.

Gilchrist, Alan R.↗

On the gravitational potential and field anomalies due to thin mass layers

The gravitational potential and field anomalies for thin mass layers are derived using the technique of matched asymptotic expansions. An inner solution is obtained using an expansion in powers of the thickness and it is shown that the outer solution is given by a surface distribution of mass sources and dipoles. Coefficients are evaluated by matching the inner expansion of the outer solution with the outer expansion of the inner solution. The leading term in the inner expansion for the normal gravitational field gives the Bouguer formula. The leading term in the expansion for the gravitational potential gives an expression for the perturbation to the geoid. The predictions given by this term are compared with measurements by satellite altimetry. The second-order terms in the expansion for the gravitational field are required to predict the gravity anomaly at a continental margin. The results are compared with observations.

Ockendon, J. R.↗

Experiments on excitation of Alfvén eigenmodes by alpha-particles with bump-on-tail distribution in JET DTE2 plasmas

Dedicated experiments were performed in JET DTE2 plasmas for obtaining an α-particle bump-on-tail (BOT) distribution aiming at exciting Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). Neutral beam injection-only heating with modulated power was used so that fusion-born α-particles were the only ions present in the MeV energy range in these DT plasmas. The beam power modulation on a time scale shorter than the α-particle slowing down time was chosen for modulating the α-particle source and thus sustaining a BOT in the α-particle distribution. High-frequency modes in the toroidicity-induced Alfven eigenmode (TAE) frequency range and multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range have been detected in these DT discharges with interferometry, soft x-ray cameras, and reflectometry. The modes observed were localised close to the magnetic axis and were not seen in the Mirnov coils. Analysis with the TRANSP and Fokker-Planck FIDIT codes confirms that α-particle distributions with BOT in energy were achieved during some time intervals in these discharges though no clear correlation was found between the times of the high-frequency mode excitation and the BOT time intervals. The combined magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) and kinetic modelling studies show that the high-frequency mode in the TAE frequency range is best fitted with a TAE of toroidal mode number n= 9. This mode is driven mostly by the on-axis beam ions while the smaller drive due to the pressure gradient of α-particles allows overcoming the marginal stability and exciting the mode. The observed multiple short-lived modes in a wider frequency range are identified as the on-axis kinetic AEs predicted in Rosenbluth and Rutherford.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Origin and resummation of threshold logarithms in the lattice QCD calculations of PDFs

Many present lattice QCD approaches to calculate the parton distribution functions (PDFs) rely on a factorization formula or effective theory expansion of certain Euclidean matrix elements in boosted hadron states. In the quasi- and pseudo-PDF methods, the matching coefficient in the factorization or expansion formula includes large logarithms near the threshold, which arise from the subtle interplay of collinear and soft divergences of an underlying 3D momentum distribution. We use the standard prescription to resum such logarithms in the Mellin-moment space at next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy, which also accounts for the Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution, and we show that it can suppress the PDF at large x . Unlike the deep inelastic scattering and Drell-Yan cross sections, the resummation formula is away from the Landau pole. We then apply our formulation to reanalyze the recent lattice results for the pion valence PDF, and find that within the current data sensitivity, the effect of threshold resummation is marginal for the accessible moments and the PDF at large x.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Inverter Intensive Hybrid Power Plant Modeling with Small-Signal Stability Augmentation through Flexible Operation Mode Transition

Hybrid power plants (HPPs) prompt the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy sources (RES) in transmission systems; however, given their low-inertia nature, HPPs are dominated by power electronic inverters, so there are inevitable challenges in system stability when increasing numbers of HPPs are integrated into the modern power grids. To boost the penetration level of HPPs without jeopardizing system stability, it is desirable to equip them with operational characteristics (i.e., grid-forming capabilities) that are comparable to those of conventional power plants dominated by synchronous generators (SGs). In this paper, a holistic model of inverter intensive HPP is derived and a bi-level hierarchical control is developed to allow HPPs to flexibly switch among the designed operation modes (i.e., P-Q, P-V, and isochronous modes). Compared to SGs, which have limited controllability, the operation mode of each HPP could vary as requested. Such flexible mode transitions could be integrated into the secondary plant-level control and be leveraged as an additional control degree to further augment system stability. Further, the system small-signal stability margin is quantified with varying HPP operation modes. More importantly, modal analysis is thereby conducted to quantify the impacts of mode transition on the system oscillatory modes. The effectiveness of the proposed HPP bi-level hierarchical control is verified using extensive case studies based on the simplified real-world island power grid, and the results validate that the system small-signal stability margin can be enhanced with the additional degree of control flexibility enabled by HPP operation mode transition. The real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) results are also provided to verify the proposed method.

grid-forming control↗

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

battery↗

CO2 on Titan

A sharp stratospheric emission feature at 667/cm in the Voyager infrared spectra of Titan is associated with the nu2 Q branch of CO2. A coupling of photochemical and radiative-transfer theory yields an average mole fraction above the 110 mbar level of (1.5 + 1.5 or - 0.8) x 10 to the -9th, with most of the uncertainty being due to imprecise knowledge of the vertical distribution. CO2 is found to be in a steady state, with its abundance being regulated principally by the 72 K cold trap near the tropopause and secondarily by the rate at which water-bearing meteoritic material enters the top of the atmosphere. An influx of water about 0.4 times that at the top of the terrestrial atmosphere is consistent with a combination of the observed CO2 abundance and a steady-state CO mole fraction of 0.00011; the thoeretical value for CO is close to the value observed by Lutz et al. (1983), although there are large margins for error in both numbers. If steady-state conditions for CO prevail, little information is available regarding the evolution of Titan's atmosphere.

Samuelson, R. E.↗

Generation of Data-Rate Profiles of Ka-Band Deep-Space Links

A short report discusses a methodology for designing Ka-band Deep-Space-to- Earth radio-communication links. This methodology is oriented toward minimizing the effects of weather on the Ka-band telecommunication link by maximizing the expected data return subject to minimum link availability and a limited number of data rates. This methodology differs from the current standard practices in which a link is designed according to a margin policy for a given link availability at 10 elevation. In this methodology, one chooses a data-rate profile that will maximize the average data return over a pass while satisfying a minimum-availability requirement for the pass, subject to mission operational limitations expressed in terms of the number of data rates used during the pass. The methodology is implemented in an intelligent search algorithm that first finds the allowable data-rate profiles from the mission constraints, spacecraft-to-Earth distance, spacecraft EIRP (effective isotropic radiated power), and the applicable zenith atmospheric noise temperature distribution, and then selects the best data rate in terms of maximum average data return from the set of allowable data-rate profiles.

Shambayati, Shervin↗

The Effect of Firn-Aquifer Drainage on the Greenland Subglacial System or Subglacial Efficiency and Storage Modified by the Temporal Pattern of High-Elevation Meltwater Input

Ice flow in marginal region of the Greenland Ice Sheet dynamically responds to summer melting as surface meltwater is routed through the supraglacial hydrologic system to the bed of the ice sheet via crevasses and moulins. Given the expected increases in surface melt production and extent, and the potential for high elevation surface-to-bed connections, it is imperative to understand how meltwater delivered to the bed from different high-elevation supraglacial storage features affects the evolution of the subglacial hydrologic system and associated ice dynamics. Here, we use the two-dimensional subglacial hydrologic model, GLaDS, which includes distributed and channelized water flow, to test how the subglacial system of an idealized outlet glacier responds to cases of high-elevation firn-aquifer-type and supraglacial-lake-type englacial drainage over the course of 5 years. Model outputs driven by these high elevation drainage types are compared to steady-state model results, where the subglacial system only receives the 1980- 2016 mean MERRA-2 runoff via low-elevation moulins. Across all experiments, the subglacial hydrologic system displays inter-annual memory, resulting in multiyear declines in subglacial pressure during the onset of seasonal melting and growth of subglacial channels. The gradual addition of water in firn-aquifer-type drainage scenarios resulted in small increases in subglacial water storage but limited changes in subglacial efficiency and channelization. Rapid, supraglacial- lake-type drainage resulted in short-term local increases in subglacial water pressure and storage, which gave way to spatially extensive decreases in subglacial pressure and downstream channelization. These preliminary results suggest that the character of high-elevation englacial drainage can have a strong, and possibly outsized, control on subglacial efficiency throughout the ablation zone. Therefore, understanding both how high elevation meltwater is stored supraglacially and the probability of crevassing at high elevations will play an important role in how the subglacial system, proglacial discharge and ice motion will respond to future increases in surface melt production and runoff.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

Reply to "Comments on 'A CloudSat-CALIPSO View of Cloud and Precipitation Properties Across Cold Fronts over the Global Oceans'"

In Naud et al., a compositing method was utilized with CloudSat-CALIPSO observations to obtain mean transects of cloud vertical distribution and surface precipitation across cold fronts, and to examine their sensitivity to the large-scale properties of the parent extratropical cyclone. This reply demonstrates the value of compositing for evaluating numerical models, and presents additional results that address the issue of the sensitivity of the initial results to the frontal detection methodology and the potential misclassification of occlusions as cold fronts. Here a sensitivity study of the cold front composite transects of cloud cover to the input datasets or the method utilized to locate the cold fronts demonstrates that these composite transects are robust and only marginally sensitive to cold front location methods. The same conclusion is reached for the robustness of the contrast between Northern and Southern Hemisphere cloud transects. While occlusions cannot directly be flagged within the database at this point, comparisons of transects obtained for subsets of cyclones of different age indicate that the misclassification of occluded fronts as cold fronts does not explain the predominance of cloud and precipitation on the warm side of the cold fronts. The strong signal on the warm side might be better explained by a predominance of forward sloping cold fronts, or the presence of the warm conveyor belt.

Cloud cover; Cold fronts; Extratropical cyclones; ↗

SURFACE EXOSURE TIMESCALES OF APOLLO CORE SAMPLE 73002 SPACE WEATHERED GRAINS

Introduction: Space weathering causes the surface regolith on airless bodies like the Moon to be morphologically, microstructurally, and chemically altered due to micrometeoroid bombardment and solar wind irradiation[1]. These processes produce a multitude of microstructural and chemical changes in individual soil grains that accumulate as grains are exposed on the surface over time. One microstructural feature produced by exposure to the solar wind is the development of ion-damaged rims on regolith grains via H+ and He+ ion irradiation. Also present are solar energetic particle (SEP) tracks, which are nanoscale lineations of ionization damage within grain interiors formed by high energy solar flare ions(primarily Fe group nuclei) which penetrate millimeters below the surface [2]. Recent work has confirmed that the thickness of solar wind-damaged amorphous rims on anorthite grains, nanocrystalline rims on olivine grains, and their respective SEP track densities are correlated with their surface exposure ages [3].Core sample 73002, recently released under the Apollo Next Generation Sample Analysis (ANGSA) Program, has provided an opportunity to study material collected from the light mantle formation during Apollo 17. The light mantle is thought to have been deposited via a landslide originating from the neighboring South Massif [4]. Spectral profiles and ferromagnetic resonance measurements of bulk soils sampled at cm-intervals from 73002 indicate the existence of mature regolith extending ~8 cm below the surface, suggesting the presence of an in-situ reworking zone in the core[5,6].Here we present the distribution of SEP track densities, solar wind damaged rim widths, and the corresponding surface exposure ages of grains residing in the proposed in-situ reworking zone of core 73002. Methods: Bulk samples of regolith from the first eight intervals and every following fourth interval down the core (dissection Pass 2) were delivered to Purdue University as <45 μm size fractions. The first eight0.5 cm intervals, representing the top 4cmof regolith, were individually dry sieved to a<20 μm size fraction, and grains were prepared by ultramicrotomy for analysis in the scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM). Bright field (BF) and dark field (DF) STEM images of solar flare tracks and solar wind damaged rims were acquired on a JEOL 2500SE TEM, equipped with a 60 mm2ultra-thin window silicon drift energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) spectrometer at NASA John-son Space Center. Grain compositions were determined by EDX compositional spectrum imaging. SEP track densities and amorphous rim thicknesses were measured on BF and DF images. Results: The fraction of grains with discernable space weathering features decreased with depth, with 100% in the first interval exhibiting space weathering features as opposed to ~60% in Interval 8.BF and DF STEM images show splash-melt and vapor deposited rims on outermost grain margins with embedded Fe-bearing nanoparticles ranging in size up to ~10 nm in diameter. Images also show solar-wind damaged rims below the vapor deposits, and SEP tracks present in grain interiors. The rim thicknesses and SEP track densities were determined using the methods of [3] for 54grains spanning the top 4 cm. ~80% of the grains analyzed were anorthite and ~20% were olivine. The track production rate from[3] was used to estimate the surface exposure times of the grains in this study. The majority of exposure times are in the 1 -5 MY range for all intervals. The lowest value was 3.8x 10¬5years in Interval 8and the highest value was1.1x 107years in Interval 6. Grains with the highest solar wind damage rim thicknesses and SEP track densities are found in Interval 6.The highest rim thickness and track density observed for anorthiteis126.5 nm and4.7 x 1011tracks/cm2, while for olivine they are 98.6 nm and 1.83 x 1011tracks/cm2, respectively. Discussion: Intervals from the top 4 cm of 73002 show similar SEP track density and solar wind damaged rim thickness distributions. Spectral and ferromagnetic resonance measurements of 73002 indicate an in-situ reworking zone up to~8 cm below the surface[5,6].The depth analyzed in this work is within the core’s uppermost in-situ reworking zone and may serve as an explanation to the homogenous distribution of exposure ages. The decreasing abundance of space weathered features with depth is consistent with regolith mixing models showing an exponential decay in regolith maturity with depth over time[7].A maximum surface exposure age determined via SEP track density is approximately 10million years. This timescale is consistent with the lower estimate of surface exposure ages of the light mantle determined in previous studies, which can range from 10s to over 100 Ma [4].It also falls within the core regolith reworking development timescale of ~17 Ma [5,6]. Additional analysis will be performed for a further seven intervals in 73002.

J A McFadden↗

A galaxy-driven model of type Ia supernova luminosity variations

ABSTRACT Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are used as standardizable candles to measure cosmological distances, but differences remain in their corrected luminosities which display a magnitude step as a function of host galaxy properties such as stellar mass and rest-frame U−R colour. Identifying the cause of these steps is key to cosmological analyses and provides insight into SN physics. Here we investigate the effects of SN progenitor ages on their light-curve properties using a galaxy-based forward model that we compare to the Dark Energy Survey 5-yr SN Ia sample. We trace SN Ia progenitors through time and draw their light-curve width parameters from a bimodal distribution according to their age. We find that an intrinsic luminosity difference between SNe of different ages cannot explain the observed trend between step size and SN colour. The data split by stellar mass are better reproduced by following recent work implementing a step in total-to-selective dust extinction ratio (RV) between low- and high-mass hosts, although an additional intrinsic luminosity step is still required to explain the data split by host galaxy U−R. Modelling the RV step as a function of galaxy age provides a better match overall. Additional age versus luminosity steps marginally improve the match to the data, although most of the step is absorbed by the width versus luminosity coefficient α. Furthermore, we find no evidence that α varies with SN age.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of flow-induced plate deflection for University of Missouri research reactor low-enriched uranium fuel element

The University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR), located on the campus of the University of Missouri in Columbia, Missouri, is one of the six United States (U.S.) High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR), including one critical facility, that are actively collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) Reactor Conversion Program to convert from highly enriched uranium (HEU, ≥20 wt% U-235) fuel to low-enriched uranium (LEU, <20 wt% U-235) fuel. A new type of very high-density LEU fuel based on a monolithic alloy of uranium and 10 wt% molybdenum (U-10Mo) is expected to allow conversion of some USHPRR, including MURR. In the design of its fuel elements, MURR is using thin parallel curved fuel plates separated by coolant channels. In this work, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis of the MURR LEU fuel element is performed at the element level (as compared to the plate level analysis), which models all components of the LEU fuel element, including fuel plates and the supporting structures. Therefore, the effect of supporting structures on the flow distribution within the element and the fuel plate deflection are evaluated. In addition to the element nominal flow rate and dimensions, the tolerances in the geometry of the coolant channel and plate thickness, the effect of a comb on plate deflection, and the uncertainty of the flow rate per element are evaluated. For the LEU fuel plates, which are thinner than the current HEU plates, the predicted plate deflection is found to be small compared to the fabrication and assembly tolerances. Thus, the FSI-induced deflections are not expected to noticeably reduce the coolant flow rate or predicted safety margins in the limiting channels for the MURR LEU fuel element. In addition to the simulation work, a hydraulic performance test of the MURR LEU fuel element is currently being planned to support conversion to the use of LEU fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Ulysses field and plasma observations of magnetic holes in the solar wind and their relation to mirror-mode structures

The term 'magnetic hole' has been used to denote isolated intervals when the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field drops to a few tenths, or less, of its ambient value for a time that corresponds to a linear dimension of tens to a few hundreds of proton gyro-radii. Data obtained by the Ulysses magnetometer and solar wind anlayzer have been combined to study the properties of such magnetic holes in the solar wind between 1 AU and 5.4 AU and to 23 deg south latitude. In order to avoid confusion with decreases in field strength at interplanetary discontinuities, the study has focused on linear holes across which the field direction changed by less than 5 deg. The holes occurred preferentially, but not without exception, in the interaction regions on the leading edges of high-speed solar wind streams. Although the plasma surrounding the holes was generally stable against the mirror instability, there are indications that the holes may have been remnants of mirror-mode structures created upstream of the points of observation. Those indications include the following: (1) For the few holes for which proton of alpha-particle pressure could be measured inside the hole, the ion thermal pressure was always greater than in the plasma adjacent to the holes. (2) The plasma surrounding many of the holes was marginally stable for the mirror mode, while the plasma environment of all holes was significantly closer to mirror instability than was the average solar wind. (3) The plasma containing trains of closely spaced holes was closer to mirror instability than was the plasma containing isolated holes. (4) The near-hole plasma had much higher ion beta (ratio of thermal to magnetic pressure) than did the average solar wind. (5) Near the holes, T(sub perp)/T(sub parallel) tended to be either greater than 1 or larger than in the average wind. (6) The proton and alpha-particle distribution functions measured inside the holes occasionally exhibited the flattened phase-space-density contoures in nu(sub perp)/nu(sub parallel) space found in some numerical simulations of the mirror instability.

Winterhalter, Daniel↗