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At least 595 records · Page 33

Towards an astronomical foundation model for stars with a transformer-based model

ABSTRACT Rapid strides are currently being made in the field of artificial intelligence using transformer-based models like Large Language Models (LLMs). The potential of these methods for creating a single, large, versatile model in astronomy has not yet been explored. In this work, we propose a framework for data-driven astronomy that uses the same core techniques and architecture as used by LLMs. Using a variety of observations and labels of stars as an example, we build a transformer-based model and train it in a self-supervised manner with cross-survey data sets to perform a variety of inference tasks. In particular, we demonstrate that a single model can perform both discriminative and generative tasks even if the model was not trained or fine-tuned to do any specific task. For example, on the discriminative task of deriving stellar parameters from Gaia XP spectra, we achieve an accuracy of 47 K in Teff, 0.11 dex in log g, and 0.07 dex in [M/H], outperforming an expert XGBoost model in the same setting. But the same model can also generate XP spectra from stellar parameters, inpaint unobserved spectral regions, extract empirical stellar loci, and even determine the interstellar extinction curve. Our framework demonstrates that building and training a single foundation model without fine-tuning using data and parameters from multiple surveys to predict unmeasured observations and parameters is well within reach. Such ‘Large Astronomy Models’ trained on large quantities of observational data will play a large role in the analysis of current and future large surveys.

Leung, Henry W. (ORCID:0000000200362752)↗

Perturbation theory for modeling galaxy bias: validation with simulations of the Dark Energy Survey

We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints

Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structured Neural Network Modeling for Developing Digital Twins Models of Hydropower Generation Units

Dynamic modeling is a key part in the development of digital twin (DT) for dynamic systems. This is true for hydropower systems, where whole system modeling including penstock, turbine and generators, etc is important in realizing actuate modeling for the real systems. On the other hand, in response to the large variations of the power demand due to increased penetration of renewables such as wind and solar, hydropower systems are now required to operate in a large power generation range. This situation triggers the nonlinear characteristics of the generation unit with respect to its models. As such, it is imperative to use data driven modeling such as neural networks to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydropower generation unit. To achieve this objective, this study constructs a modeling and learning algorithm integrated with multiple structured neural network models for the modeling of turbine shaft speed, penstock pressure, and generator power output based on the generator power control setpoint, field current, and field voltage. In addition, the study uses the hydropower data from Tacoma Public Utilities to train and validate the proposed neural network algorithm. The results have shown that this structured neural network modeling approach can learn the system dynamics effectively by using the real-time data collected from the hydropower system with the desired modeling results.

Wang, Hong↗

A Nonlinear Regression Method for Composite Protection Modeling of Induction Motor Loads

Protection equipment are used to prevent damages to induction motor loads by isolating those from the power network in the event of severe faults. Modeling the response of induction motor loads and their protection is vital for power system planning and operation, especially in understanding system's response moments after a fault has occurred. This article proposes an optimization based framework to generate composite protection models for commercial building motor loads. Introducing a mathematical abstraction, the task of finding a suitable (simplified) model of the composite protection scheme is formulated as a nonlinear regression problem. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the framework.

Kundu, Soumya↗

Data-Driven Modeling and Optimization of Building Energy Consumption: a Case Study

Installing sensors and Building Automation Systems (BAS) allows controlling the facility operations while generating data that can be analyzed for model development. This work focuses on data-driven modeling of the building to optimize energy consumption. The City of Orlando aims to reduce its energy consumption so, they provided us access to their BAS for data and studying the operation of its facilities. We selected a mid-size pilot building to conduct data analysis and modeling. We develop an Application Programming Interface (API) to login to the servers and scrape data. The scraped data contains features ranging from environmental conditions to equipment activity. This dataset is a time series so, it's handled in accordance and analyzed to investigate patterns and relations between data points that help choose parameters for predictive models for building and equipment. Finally, the models are optimized to reduce the energy consumption of the facility.

Grover, Divas↗

Data-Driven Model for Photovoltaic Generation: Comparison with Physical Models Using a Microgrid in Puerto Rico

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is a critical component of microgrids, but its accurate modeling is challenging due to the complex and dynamic interactions between solar irradiance, temperature, and PV system installation. This paper develops a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model that inputs solar irradiance and temperature to estimate the PV generation, and it compares the proposed data-driven model’s performance to two well-known physical models: the single-diode model and the inverter model. The results demonstrate that all the models can reach high levels of accuracy. However, the MLP model outperforms the physical models on average by 4.5 to 6.6 percent in R squared scores and 220 to 290 Watts in RMSE scores, and it does not require physical system parameters. Moreover, the data-driven model can overcome the limitations of the lack of real-time PV generation data.

R pesante colón, Marcos↗

Mechanical Analysis of the Short Model Magnets for the Nb $_{3}$Sn Low-$\beta$ Quadrupole MQXF

During the development of MQXF, the new Nb 3 Sn quadrupole to be used in the large hadron collider (LHC) inner triplets for the High Luminosity upgrade, three short models were tested: MQXFS1, MQXFS3, and MQXFS5. These models differ in the use of thin or thick laminations for the iron components, in the coil design, and in the superconductive strands, rod restack process (RRP) or powder in tube (PIT). In the MQXF design, the azimuthal prestress is provided at room temperature by means of the bladder-key technology, and it is further increased during the cooldown by the differential thermal contraction of the various components. Four aluminum rods provide the longitudinal prestress. Both systems allow for a flexible control of the amount of prestress applied. As a consequence, it was possible to test the models exploring different azimuthal and longitudinal prestress conditions, in an attempt to understand their impact on the magnet performances. Here, this paper studies the mechanical behavior of these short models, also providing the strain and stresses measured by means of strain gauges installed on the aluminum shell, on the winding poles and on the rods. Finally, the paper compares the measures with the results from finite element (FE) models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multidimensional Modeling of Mixture Formation in a Hydrogen-Fueled Heavy-Duty Optical Engine With Direct Injection

Hydrogen (H 2 ), as a carbon-free fuel, is considered as one of the most promising solutions to reduce the carbon footprint of hard-to-decarbonize energy and transportation sectors. As such, hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines (H 2 ICEs) have recently been receiving increasing attention, particularly in applications such as on-road/off-road heavy-duty transport and combined heat and power. The direct injection (DI) of gaseous hydrogen into the combustion chamber offers great potential for achieving high power density and high engine efficiency, while mitigating the risk of backfire and reducing pre-ignition. However, the numerical simulation of H 2 DI system remains a formidable challenge associated with the high computational cost of reproducing compressible supersonic flow and shocks in narrow injector passages and in near-nozzle regions. In general, there is a lack of well-established and validated practices for the modeling of high-pressure H 2 DI in large-bore engines. Here, to this end, this study focuses on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the mixture formation process in a heavy-duty optical engine employing a medium-pressure H 2 DI system. Both large eddy simulations (LES) and Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations are performed and evaluated against optical data. Gaseous hydrogen is injected into the combustion chamber via a centrally located outward opening hollow-cone injector at a pressure of 40 bar. Simulations are carried out for two injection timings, namely, −120 and −60 °CA. The numerical predictions for H 2 distribution in different horizontal and vertical planes during the compression stroke are systematically compared against optical data obtained through planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) measurements. Overall, the LES approach using the Dynamic Structure model is found to have good predictive capabilities for the early jet penetration in terms of length and shape, as well as the later H 2 distributions. However, the unsteady RANS approach with the renormalization group $k - ϵ$ model, which is widely used by industry to model heavy-duty ICEs, significantly underpredicts the H 2 mixing, even at similar mesh resolution to that used in LES. These results indicate that there is a need for the improvement of mixing submodels within the RANS approach when applied to H 2 DI simulations.

LES↗

Repopulation of interacting tumor cells during fractionated radiotherapy: Stochastic modeling of the tumor control probability

Purpose: Optimal treatment planning for fractionated external beam radiation therapy requires inputs from radiobiology based on recent thinking about the “five Rs” (repopulation, radiosensitivity, reoxygenation, redistribution, and repair). The need is especially acute for the newer, often individualized, protocols made feasible by progress in image guided radiation therapy and dose conformity. Current stochastic tumor control probability (TCP) models incorporating tumor repopulation effects consider “stem-like cancer cells” (SLCC) to be independent, but the authors here propose that SLCC-SLCC interactions may be significant. The authors present a new stochastic TCP model for repopulating SLCC interacting within microenvironmental niches. Our approach is meant mainly for comparing similar protocols. It aims at practical generalizations of previous mathematical models. Methods: The authors consider protocols with complete sublethal damage repair between fractions. The authors use customized open-source software and recent mathematical approaches from stochastic process theory for calculating the time-dependent SLCC number and thereby estimating SLCC eradication probabilities. As specific numerical examples, the authors consider predicted TCP results for a 2 Gy per fraction, 60 Gy protocol compared to 64 Gy protocols involving early or late boosts in a limited volume to some fractions. Results: In sample calculations with linear quadratic parameters α = 0.3 per Gy, α/β = 10 Gy, boosting is predicted to raise TCP from a dismal 14.5% observed in some older protocols for advanced NSCLC to above 70%. This prediction is robust as regards: (a) the assumed values of parameters other than α and (b) the choice of models for intraniche SLCC-SLCC interactions. However, α = 0.03 per Gy leads to a prediction of almost no improvement when boosting. Conclusions: The predicted efficacy of moderate boosts depends sensitively on α. Presumably, the larger values of α are the ones appropriate for individualized treatment protocols, with the smaller values relevant only to protocols for a heterogeneous patient population. On that assumption, boosting is predicted to be highly effective. Front boosting, apart from practical advantages and a possible advantage as regards iatrogenic second cancers, also probably gives a slightly higher TCP than back boosting. If the total number of SLCC at the start of treatment can be measured even roughly, it will provide a highly sensitive way of discriminating between various models and parameter choices. Updated mathematical methods for calculating repopulation allow credible generalizations of earlier results.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A Global Food Demand Model for the Assessment of Complex Human-Earth Systems

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-series observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.

climate change, fo, in↗

The ARM Data-oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Models - A New Tool for Evaluating Climate Models with Field Data

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program User Facility produces ground-based long-term continuous unique measurements for atmospheric state, precipitation, turbulent fluxes, radiation, aerosol, cloud and the land surface, which are collected at multiple sites. These comprehensive datasets have been widely used to calibrate climate models and are proven to be invaluable for climate model development and improvement. This article introduces an evaluation package to facilitate the use of ground-based ARM measurements in climate model evaluation. The ARM data-oriented metrics and diagnostics package (ARM-DIAGS) includes both ARM observational datasets and a Python-based analysis toolkit for computation and visualization. The observational datasets are compiled from multiple ARM data products and specifically tailored for use in climate model evaluation. In addition, ARM-DIAGS also includes simulation data from models participating the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), which will allow climate-modeling groups to compare a new, candidate version of their model to existing CMIP models. The analysis toolkit is designed to make the metrics and diagnostics quickly available to the model developers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A thermodynamics-based damage model for the non-linear mechanical behavior of SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites in irradiation and thermal environments

A damage model is developed and validated with experimental data for the non-linear mechanical behavior of SiC/SiC composite materials in nuclear applications. Cyclic thermal and mechanical loading associated with neutron irradiation effects of these composites leads to wide-spread and progressive micro-cracking that leads to loss of thermal conductivity and further enhancement of thermo-mechanical damage. A physics-based model of wide-spread micro-cracking is developed within the thermodynamic framework of continuum damage mechanics. Evolution equations for damage parameters that describe the growth of continuum damage are developed, where the material variables are obtained from experiments. The model novelty is in coupling mechanical, thermal, and irradiation damage through a consistent thermodynamic framework, including loss of thermal conductivity due to the evolution of mechanically induced micro-cracks. A number of thermo-mechanical experiments were conducted to confirm model assumptions. The model is shown to be validated with out-of-pile experiments, and then implemented using commercial finite element code COMSOL to the fuel cladding problem with normal and high radiation dose cases.

Materials Science↗

Language models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for computational tools to automate and accelerate drug design for novel protein targets. We leverage deep learning language models to generate and score drug candidates based on predicted protein binding affinity. We pre-trained a deep learning language model (BERT) on ∼9.6 billion molecules and achieved peak performance of 603 petaflops in mixed precision. Our work reduces pre-training time from days to hours, compared to previous efforts with this architecture, while also increasing the dataset size by nearly an order of magnitude. For scoring, we fine-tuned the language model using an assembled set of thousands of protein targets with binding affinity data and searched for inhibitors of specific protein targets, SARS-CoV-2 Mpro and PLpro. We utilized a genetic algorithm approach for finding optimal candidates using the generation and scoring capabilities of the language model. Our generalizable models accelerate the identification of inhibitors for emerging therapeutic targets.

Blanchard, Andrew E.↗