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DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum computational phase transition in combinatorial problems

Quantum Approximate Optimization algorithm (QAOA) aims to search for approximate solutions to discrete optimization problems with near-term quantum computers. As there are no algorithmic guarantee possible for QAOA to outperform classical computers, without a proof that bounded-error quantum polynomial time (BQP) ≠ nondeterministic polynomial time (NP), it is necessary to investigate the empirical advantages of QAOA. We identify a computational phase transition of QAOA when solving hard problems such as SAT—random instances are most difficult to train at a critical problem density. We connect the transition to the controllability and the complexity of QAOA circuits. Moreover, we find that the critical problem density in general deviates from the SAT-UNSAT phase transition, where the hardest instances for classical algorithms lies. Then, we show that the high problem density region, which limits QAOA’s performance in hard optimization problems (reachability deficits), is actually a good place to utilize QAOA: its approximation ratio has a much slower decay with the problem density, compared to classical approximate algorithms. Indeed, it is exactly in this region that quantum advantages of QAOA over classical approximate algorithms can be identified.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Trainability of Dissipative Perceptron-Based Quantum Neural Networks

Several architectures have been proposed for quantum neural networks (QNNs), with the goal of efficiently performing machine learning tasks on quantum data. Rigorous scaling results are urgently needed for specific QNN constructions to understand which, if any, will be trainable at a large scale. Here, we analyze the gradient scaling (and hence the trainability) for a recently proposed architecture that we call dissipative QNNs (DQNNs), where the input qubits of each layer are discarded at the layer’s output. We find that DQNNs can exhibit barren plateaus, i.e., gradients that vanish exponentially in the number of qubits. Moreover, we provide quantitative bounds on the scaling of the gradient for DQNNs under different conditions, such as different cost functions and circuit depths, and show that trainability is not always guaranteed. Here our work represents the first rigorous analysis of the scalability of a perceptron-based QNN.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Resilient Near Real-Time Analysis Workflows in Fusion Energy Science

Nuclear fusion holds the promise of an endless source of energy. Several research experiments across the world and joint modeling and simulation efforts between the nuclear physics and high performance computing communities are actively preparing the operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Both experimental reactors and their simulated counterparts generate data that must be analyzed quickly and in a resilient way to support decision making for the configuration of subsequent runs or prevent a catastrophic failure. However, the cost if the traditional techniques used to improve the resilience of analysis workflows, i.e., replicating datasets and computational tasks, becomes prohibitive with explosion of the volume of data produced by modern instruments and simulations. Therefore, we advocate in this paper for an alternate approach based on data reduction and data streaming. The rationale is that by allowing for a reasonable, controlled, and guaranteed loss of accuracy it becomes possible to transfer smaller amounts of data, shorten the execution time of analysis workflows, and lower the cost of replication to increase resilience. We develop our research and development roadmap towards resilient near real-time analysis workflows in fusion energy science and present early results showing that data streaming and data reduction is a promising way to speed up the execution and improve the resilience of analysis workflows.

Suter, Fred↗

NASA NTRS2006

Antenna Technologies for Future NASA Exploration Missions

NASA s plans for the manned exploration of the moon and Mars will rely heavily on the development of a reliable communications infrastructure on the surface and back to Earth. Future missions will thus focus not only on gathering scientific data, but also on the formation of the communications network. In either case, unique requirements become imposed on the antenna technologies necessary to accomplish these tasks. For example, surface activity applications such as robotic rovers, human extravehicular activities (EVA), and probes will require small size, lightweight, low power, multi-functionality, and robustness for the antenna elements being considered. Trunk-line communications to a centralized habitat on the surface and back to Earth (e.g., surface relays, satellites, landers) will necessitate wide-area coverage, high gain, low mass, deployable antennas. Likewise, the plethora of low to high data rate services desired to guarantee the safety and quality of mission data for robotic and human exploration will place additional demands on the technology. Over the past year, NASA Glenn Research Center has been heavily involved in the development of candidate antenna technologies with the potential for meeting these strict requirements. This technology ranges from electrically small antennas to phased array and large inflatable structures. A summary of this overall effort is provided, with particular attention being paid to small antenna designs and applications. A discussion of the Agency-wide activities of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) in forthcoming NASA missions, as they pertain to the communications architecture for the lunar and Martian networks is performed, with an emphasis on the desirable qualities of potential antenna element designs for envisioned communications assets. Identified frequency allocations for the lunar and Martian surfaces, as well as asset-specific data services will be described to develop a foundation for viable antenna technologies which might address these requirements and help guide future technology development decisions.

Miranda, Felix A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Throughput Estimation of Data Transport Networks From Digital Twin Measurements

Digital twins of networked infrastructures, known as Virtual Infrastructure Twins (VITs), are increasingly used for software development, pre-deployment testing, and design space exploration. While VITs avoid the costs and potential disruptions associated with experiments on operational networks, their throughput measurements are typically not sufficiently accurate for performance profiling of wide-area networks that they emulate. Here, machine learning (ML) methods are developed to transform these inaccurate VIT network throughput measurements to closely match in peak and overall profile of those from a physical testbed or production network. First, a micro kernel network reflecting a physical network is utilized to collect one-time measurements on a host to support this ML transformation. Then, a generic multi-modal ML method is developed to learn a map that transforms measurements from subsequent VITs on the same host to match past, current and follow-on testbed and cloud networks. ML generalization equations are derived to establish its correctness and probabilistically guarantee its generalization accuracy. Experimental results are presented for a variety of VIT hosts with target testbed and cloud networks; they include a case study of a four-site science ecosystem wherein inaccurate convex VIT measurement profiles are transformed into accurate concave profiles of target networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2006

CCSDS Time-Critical Onboard Networking Service

The Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) is developing recommendations for communication services onboard spacecraft. Today many different communication buses are used on spacecraft requiring software with the same basic functionality to be rewritten for each type of bus. This impacts on the application software resulting in custom software for almost every new mission. The Spacecraft Onboard Interface Services (SOIS) working group aims to provide a consistent interface to various onboard buses and sub-networks, enabling a common interface to the application software. The eventual goal is reusable software that can be easily ported to new missions and run on a range of onboard buses without substantial modification. The system engineer will then be able to select a bus based on its performance, power, etc and be confident that a particular choice of bus will not place excessive demands on software development. This paper describes the SOIS Intra-Networking Service which is designed to enable data transfer and multiplexing of a variety of internetworking protocols with a range of quality of service support, over underlying heterogeneous data links. The Intra-network service interface provides users with a common Quality of Service interface when transporting data across a variety of underlying data links. Supported Quality of Service (QoS) elements include: Priority, Resource Reservation and Retry/Redundancy. These three QoS elements combine and map into four TCONS services for onboard data communications: Best Effort, Assured, Reserved, and Guaranteed. Data to be transported is passed to the Intra-network service with a requested QoS. The requested QoS includes the type of service, priority and where appropriate, a channel identifier. The data is de-multiplexed, prioritized, and the required resources for transport are allocated. The data is then passed to the appropriate data link for transfer across the bus. The SOIS supported data links may inherently provide the quality of service support requested by the intra-network layer. In the case where the data link does not have the required level of support, the missing functionality is added by SOIS. As a result of this architecture, re-usable software applications can be designed and used across missions thereby promoting common mission operations. In addition, the protocol multiplexing function enables the blending of multiple onboard networks. This paper starts by giving an overview of the SOIS architecture in section 11, illustrating where the TCONS services fit into the overall architecture. It then describes the quality of service approach adopted, in section III. The prototyping efforts that have been going on are introduced in section JY. Finally, in section V the current status of the CCSDS recommendations is summarized.

Parkes, Steve↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

Airport configuration selection is a complex decision-making process that involves several operational and human factors. In this paper we propose a novel recursive multi-step machine learning (ML) approach to predict airport configuration. The multi-step approach guarantees stability of the predicted configuration by taking as input the configuration predicted at the previous time step. The features of the proposed model include weather data, future arrival and departure counts and current configuration. Due to the importance of arrival and departure counts in predicting the airport configuration, arrival counts are calculated using landing time predictions selected from physics-based landing time predictions available in FAA System Wide Information Management data feeds for each flight. The selection rules were developed and refined to select the most accurate time for different phases of flight. The proposed model predicts the airport configurations up to 6 hours ahead. In this paper we show the predictive performance of the proposed model for six major US airports, including Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). We trained and evaluated models on 2019 and 2020 data in order to study the effect of the pandemic and how changes in traffic patterns affected the performance of the proposed model. Results are compared with a baseline assuming no airport configuration changes. In our results for DFW, we obtained a prediction accuracy of 89.3% for 3 hours ahead prediction, and 82.8% for 6 hours ahead when applied on 2019 data.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1988

Design for performance enhancement in feedback control systems with multiple saturating nonlinearities

A systematic control design methodology is introduced for multi-input/multi-output systems with multiple saturations. The methodology can be applied to stable and unstable open loop plants with magnitude and/or rate control saturations and to systems in which state limitations are desired. This new methodology is a substantial improvement over previous heuristic single-input/single-output approaches. The idea is to introduce a supervisor loop so that when the references and/or disturbances are sufficiently small, the control system operates linearly as designed. For signals large enough to cause saturations, the control law is modified in such a way to ensure stability and to preserve, to the extent possible, the behavior of the linear control design. Key benefits of this methodology are: the modified compensator never produces saturating control signals, integrators and/or slow dynamics in the compensator never windup, the directional properties of the controls are maintained, and the closed loop system has certain guaranteed stability properties. The advantages of the new design methodology are illustrated by numerous simulations, including the multivariable longitudinal control of modified models of the F-8 (stable) and F-16 (unstable) aircraft.

Kapasouris, Petros↗

DOE OSTI2025

Virtual Self-Excited Induction Generator-Based Grid-Forming Inverter Control for Robust Voltage Regulation Under Nonideal Loading

This paper presents a generator-inspired control methodology for grid-forming (GFM) inverters that deliberately emulates a self-excited induction generator so that the inverter can hold its voltage and frequency under difficult loading and severe terminal disturbances across wide voltage and frequency ranges. The design integrates a Lyapunov energy function-based inner loop to provide high bandwidth and strong disturbance rejection, and it complements this with a passivity-based argument that furnishes a coherent large-signal stability guarantee beyond small-signal limits. Analytical insights are developed via the Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging method, which reveals an intrinsic resistive droop characteristic; these closed-form relations both explain the observed dynamics and yield simple, decentralized tuning rules. The methodology is validated on a controller-hardware-in-the-loop platform and exercised in real time across balanced, unbalanced, and nonlinear loads, as well as during parallel operation. Across these scenarios, the inverter maintains balanced three-phase voltages, limits harmonic content, settles quickly with well-damped transients, and remains resilient when multiple units operate in parallel. The contributions are a self-excited-machine-inspired GFM controller with enhanced dynamic performance and robustness, a single stability rationale grounded in passivity, closed-form expressions that guide tuning, and comprehensive hardware-in-the-loop validations demonstrating effectiveness and superiority under challenging operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attack-Resilient Weighted $\ell_{1}$ Observer with Prior Pruning

Security related questions for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) have attracted much research attention in searching for novel methods for attack-resilient control and/or estimation. Specifically, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD), while arbitrarily compromising the integrity of state estimators and robust controller even with very sparse measurements corruption. Moreover, based on the inherent sparsity of pragmatic attack signals, ℓ1 -minimization scheme has been used extensively to improve the design of attack-resilient estimators. For this, the theoretical maximum for the percentage of compromised nodes that can be accommodated has been shown to be 50%. In order to guarantee correct state recoveries for larger percentage of attacked nodes, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through some data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown strong positive correlation between the tolerated attack percentages and the precision of the prior information. In this paper, we present a pruning method to improve the precision of the prior information, given corresponding stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Then a weighted ℓ1 -minimization is proposed based on the pruned prior. The theoretical and simulation results show that the pruning method significantly improves the observer performance for much larger attack percentages, even when moderately accurate machine learning model used.

Resilient observer, Cyber-physical systems, prunin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of sparse recovery for Legendre expansions using envelope bound

We provide novel sufficient conditions for the uniform recovery of sparse Legendre expansions using ℓ 1 minimization, where the sampling points are drawn according to orthogonalization (uniform) measure. So far, conditions of the form m ≳ Θ 2 s x log factors have been relied on to determine the minimum number of samples m that guarantees successful reconstruction of s-sparse vectors when the measurement matrix is associated to an orthonormal system. However, in case of sparse Legendre expansions, the uniform bound Θ of Legendre systems is so high that these conditions are unable to provide meaningful guarantees. Here, in this paper, we present an analysis which employs the envelop bound of all Legendre polynomials instead, and prove a new recovery guarantee for s-sparse Legendre expansions, m ≳ Θs 2 x log factors, which is independent of Θ. Arguably, this is the first recovery condition established for orthonormal systems without assuming the uniform boundedness of the sampling matrix. The key ingredient of our analysis is an extension of chaining arguments, recently developed in Bourgain and Chkifa et al., to handle the envelope bound. Furthermore, our recovery condition is proved via restricted eigenvalue property, a less demanding replacement of restricted isometry property which is perfectly suited to the considered scenario. Along the way, we derive simple criteria to detect good sample sets. Our numerical tests show that sets of uniformly sampled points that meet these criteria will perform better recovery on average.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Porous Flow Modeling of Axial Gas Redistribution in Fragmented LWR Fuel Rods using MOOSE

Understanding how gas axially redistributes within fragmented fuel pellets is crucial for predicting the behavior of Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel rods, particularly during transient and accidental scenarios. The time scale of this phenomenon plays a fundamental role in determining the progression and hazard of a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), especially when high burn-up fuel in a severe state of fragmentation is involved. Here, this study presents a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to predict the time-scale of plenum depressurization in Light-Water Reactor (LWR) fuel rods driven by axial gas transport through fragmented pellets. The model examines the effects of incorporating non-linearities in the friction term by comparing the results with experimental data. The experiment employed surrogate fuel rods containing pellets subjected to mechanical and/or thermal loadings to simulate various severity of cracking, and aimed at studying the influence of fuel conditions on axial gas redistribution. The results of this analysis indicate that under certain flow regime conditions - determined by the value of an equivalent Reynolds number - accounting for the non-linear friction term in Navier-Stokes equations guarantees better predictions for the time-scale of plenum depressurization. Also, the model enabled the simulation of the pressure decay by assigning distinct permeability values to each pellet instead of a single uniform value. Multiple simulations were run across all possible pellet position combinations, having each pellet assigned with values of permeability extracted from the experimental data. This allows to quantify the impact of the considering various non-uniform distributions of permeability on the dynamics of axial gas redistribution. The present work findings enhance the understanding of axial gas transport, and provide valuable insights for the integration of a model for predicting the axial gas redistribution during a LOCA scenario into the BISON fuel performance code.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles Charging Time Constrained Deliverable Provision of Secondary Frequency Regulation

Aggregation of electric vehicles (EVs) is a promising technique for providing secondary frequency regulation (SFR) in highly renewable energy-penetrated power systems. Equipped with energy storage devices, EV aggregation can provide reliable SFR. However, the main challenge is to guarantee reliable intra-interval SFR capacities and inter-interval delivery following the automatic generation control (AGC) signal. Furthermore, aggregated EV SFR provision will be further complicated by the EV charging time anxiety because SFR provision might extend EV's charging time. This paper proposes a deliverable EV SFR provision with a charging-time-constrained control strategy. First, a charging-time-constrained EV aggregation is proposed to address the uncertainty of EV capacity based on the state-space model considering the charging-time restriction of EV owners. Second, a real-time economic dispatch and time domain simulation (RTED-TDS) cosimulation framework is proposed to verify financial results and the dynamic performance of the EV SFR provision. Last, the proposed charging time-constrained EV aggregation is validated on the IEEE 39-bus system. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that with charging time-constrained EV aggregation, the dynamic performance of the system can be improved with a marginal increase in total cost. More importantly, the charging time constraint can be respected in the proposed SFR provision of the EV aggregation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2002

Hybrid Verification of an Interface for an Automatic Landing

Modern commercial aircraft have extensive automation which helps the pilot by performing computations, obtaining data, and completing procedural tasks. The pilot display must contain enough information so that the pilot can correctly predict the aircraft's behavior, while not overloading the pilot with unnecessary information. Human-automation interaction is currently evaluated through extensive simulation. In this paper, using both hybrid and discrete-event system techniques, we show how one could mathematically verify that an interface contains enough information for the pilot to safely and unambiguously complete a desired maneuver. We first develop a nonlinear, hybrid model for the longitudinal dynamics of a large civil jet aircraft in an autoland/go-around maneuver. We find the largest controlled subset of the aircraft's flight envelope for which we can guarantee both safe landing and safe go-around. We abstract a discrete procedural model using this result, and verify a discrete formulation of the pilot display against it. An interface which fails this verification could result in nondeterministic or unpredictable behavior from the pilot's point of view.

Oishi, Meeko↗

NASA NTRS2005

Determination of Interlaminar Toughness of IM7/977-2 Composites at Temperature Extremes and Different Thicknesses

Composite materials are being used in the aerospace industry as a means of reducing vehicle weight. In particular, polymer matrix composites (PMC) are good candidates due to their high strength-to-weight and high stiffness-to-weight ratios. Future reusable space launch vehicles and space exploration structures will need advanced light weight composites in order to minimize vehicle weight while demonstrating robustness and durability, guaranteeing high factors of safety. In particular, the implementation of composite cryogenic propellant fuel tanks (cryotanks) for future reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) could greatly reduce the vehicle's weight versus identically sized cryotanks constructed of metallic materials. One candidate composite material for future cryotank designs is IM7/977-2, which is a graphite/epoxy system. A successful candidate must demonstrate reasonable structural properties over a wide range of temperatures. Since the matrix material is normally the weak link in the composite, tests that emphasize matrix-dominated behavior need to be conducted. Therefore, the objective of this work is to determine the mode I interlaminar fracture toughness of "unidirectional" 8-ply and 16-ply IM7/977-2 through experimental testing. Tests were performed at -196 degrees Celsius (-320 degrees Fahrenheit), 22 degrees Celsius (72 degrees Fahrenheit), 93 degrees Celsius (200 degrees Fahrenheit) and 160 degrees C (320 degrees Fahrenheit). Low temperature testing was completed while the specimen was submerged in a liquid nitrogen bath. High temperature testing was completed in a temperature-controlled oven.

Johnson, W. S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of the ratio of ℓ 1 and ℓ 2 norms in compressed sensing

We study the ratio of ℓ 1 and ℓ 2 norms ( ℓ 1 / ℓ 2 ) as a sparsity-promoting objective in compressed sensing. We first propose a novel criterion that guarantees that an s-sparse signal is the local minimizer of the ℓ 1 / ℓ 2 objective; our criterion is interpretable and useful in practice. We also give the first uniform recovery condition using a geometric characterization of the null space of the measurement matrix, and show that this condition is satisfied for a class of random matrices. We also present analysis on the robustness of the procedure when noise pollutes data. Numerical experiments are provided that compare ℓ 1 / ℓ 2 with some other popular non-convex methods in compressed sensing. Finally, we propose a novel initialization approach to accelerate the numerical optimization procedure. We call this initialization approach support selection, and we demonstrate that it empirically improves the performance of existing ℓ 1 / ℓ 2 algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗