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At least 595 records · Page 33

Infection and Genomic Properties of Single- and Double-Stranded DNA Cellulophaga Phages

Bacterial viruses (phages) are abundant and ecologically impactful, but laboratory-based experimental model systems vastly under-represent known phage diversity, particularly for ssDNA phages. Here, we characterize the genomes and infection properties of two unrelated marine flavophages—ssDNA generalist phage phi18:4 (6.5 Kbp) and dsDNA specialist phage phi18:1 (39.2 Kbp)—when infecting the same Cellulophaga baltica strain #18 (Cba18), of the class Flavobacteriia. Phage phi18:4 belongs to a new family of ssDNA phages, has an internal lipid membrane, and its genome encodes primarily structural proteins, as well as a DNA replication protein common to ssDNA phages and a unique lysis protein. Phage phi18:1 is a siphovirus that encodes several virulence genes, despite not having a known temperate lifestyle, a CAZy enzyme likely for regulatory purposes, and four DNA methyltransferases dispersed throughout the genome that suggest both host modulation and phage DNA protection against host restriction. Physiologically, ssDNA phage phi18:4 has a shorter latent period and smaller burst size than dsDNA phage phi18:1, and both phages efficiently infect this host. These results help augment the diversity of characterized environmental phage–host model systems by studying infections of genomically diverse phages (ssDNA vs. dsDNA) on the same host.

Howard-Varona, Cristina (ORCID:0000000241495818)↗

Orbital Debris Shape Effect Investigations for Mitigating Risk

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) and Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) team have coordinated to better understand the risks to upper stages and spacecraft from non-spherical orbital debris. It is well understood that fragmentation (collision or explosion) events in orbit produce fragments of various materials, sizes, and shapes. To further characterize these parameters, the ODPO is developing the next-generation Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 4.0 to include orbital debris shape distributions. Ground-based assets, such as radar and optical sensors, can provide size estimates and some insight into material based on radar return or optical filter photometry/spectroscopy, respectively. Characterizing an object’s shape requires more laboratory analyses to infer how shape affects these measurements. More importantly, in addition to size and material/density, the shape of fragments in orbit will alter the ballistic limit equations used in orbital debris risk assessments with NASA’s Bumper Code. The ODPO plans to release ORDEM 4.0 in the coming years. Performing ground-based laboratory impact tests on high-fidelity spacecraft mockups provides the means to directly measure size, mass, material/density, and shape of fragments, all key parameters needed to characterize real-world break up events. The DebriSat test, the results of which are provided, showcases the details of this type of experiment. The goal of this collaborative research between the ODPO and the HVIT team is to include a shape parameter in the environmental and breakup models used to assess risk for various space structures. This paper examines ground-based laboratory impact tests and the associated fragment shape categories. Provided these defined shapes, the approach is simplified by assuming a right circular cylinder (RCC) approximation with varying length-to-diameter ratios. Highlights of impact tests conducted by the HVIT team using non-spherical projectiles based on the RCC approximation are presented. Hydrocode simulations have also been performed to expand on the complexity of variations with non-spherical projectiles. Lastly, ray-tracing simulations of various RCCs of known material are provided to support the ongoing research on optical reflectance distributions with known shapes and to highlight how this may modify the current optical size estimation model. The status and plan forward are outlined for NASA's orbital debris shape effect investigation using a multidisciplinary approach by the ODPO and the HVIT team.

Heather Cowardin↗

Orbital Debris Shape Effect Investigations for Mitigating Risk

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) and Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) team have coordinated to better understand the risks to upper stages and spacecraft from non-spherical orbital debris. It is well understood that fragmentation (collision or explosion) events in orbit produce fragments of various materials, sizes, and shapes. To further characterize these parameters, the ODPO is developing the next-generation Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 4.0 to include orbital debris shape distributions. Ground-based assets, such as radar and optical sensors, can provide size estimates and some insight into material based on radar return or optical filter photometry/spectroscopy, respectively. Characterizing an object’s shape requires more laboratory analyses to infer how shape affects these measurements. More importantly, in addition to size and material/density, the shape of fragments in orbit will alter the ballistic limit equations used in orbital debris risk assessments with NASA’s Bumper Code. The ODPO plans to release ORDEM 4.0 in the coming years. Performing ground-based laboratory impact tests on high-fidelity spacecraft mockups provides the means to directly measure size, mass, material/density, and shape of fragments, all key parameters needed to characterize real-world break up events. The DebriSat test, the results of which are provided, showcases the details of this type of experiment. The goal of this collaborative research between the ODPO and the HVIT team is to include a shape parameter in the environmental and breakup models used to assess risk for various space structures. This paper examines ground-based laboratory impact tests and the associated fragment shape categories. Provided these defined shapes, the approach is simplified by assuming a right circular cylinder (RCC) approximation with varying length-to-diameter ratios. Highlights of impact tests conducted by the HVIT team using non-spherical projectiles based on the RCC approximation are presented. Hydrocode simulations have also been performed to expand on the complexity of variations with non-spherical projectiles. Lastly, ray-tracing simulations of various RCCs of known material are provided to support the ongoing research on optical reflectance distributions with known shapes and to highlight how this may modify the current optical size estimation model. The status and plan forward are outlined for NASA's orbital debris shape effect investigation using a multidisciplinary approach by the ODPO and the HVIT team.

Heather Cowardin↗

Seabird distribution is better predicted by abundance of prey than oceanography. A case study in the Gulf of Cadiz (SW, Iberian Peninsula)

Abstract Quantifying factors that influence marine predator distributions is essential to understanding the current and future change in marine biodiversity. Here, we test whether marine predator distribution relates to prey, or is better predicted by other specific habitat features. We examine the correlation between spatial distribution of three seabird species and their prey, as well as environmental proxies (oceanographic characteristics) in the Gulf of Cadiz, NE Atlantic. We modeled the at-sea distribution of Cory's shearwater, Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet, based on: (i) pelagic fish abundance according to acoustic surveys, and (ii) a forecast-model of remotely sensed environmental variables (productivity, sea surface temperature, and salinity). In general, seabird distributions were better predicted by abundance of fish than by environmental variables at the habitat scale. We obtained consistent correlations between seabird presence and the abundance of medium-sized (10–20 cm) sardines, anchovies and Mediterranean horse mackerel, providing information on their preferred prey. Additionally, oceanographic productivity variables moderately contributed to seabird distribution models, with better predictive value for the critically endangered Balearic shearwater and Northern gannet in the summer, whilst the model for Cory's shearwater's produced poorer predictions. Predator–prey combined studies may represent essential tools for an efficient ecosystem-based management of marine environments.

de la Cruz, Andrés (ORCID:0000000203632498)↗

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Regulatory Decision-Making Process Using 'Weight of Evidence: An Evidence Integration Approach' by the State of Washington at the Hanford Site - 20163

Performance Assessment and Environmental Impact Statement Modeling, Human and Ecological Risk Assessments are the tools used by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) to make regulatory decisions for permitting and cleanup. These efforts all inherently have large amounts of uncertainty no matter how many alternative approaches are attempted. Professional feedback from tribal governments, stakeholders, federal and state regulators, the public and independent peer review groups are taken into account in this process of informed decision making. The process also includes full evaluation of the comments and the associated reviews made by the various peer review groups such as the Low -Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (DOE order 435.1) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The evolution of technology has produced quicker and more efficient fate and transport modeling tools with related quantification of uncertainties and their significance. Groundwater and vadose zone models have been expanded across the entire Hanford site. Many of the technical approaches identified in the Washington State Regulations are updated using current knowledge to better understand the complexities of the Hanford Site using the latest state of the art tools for risk assessment and modeling. More emphasis and time are directed on defining uncertainty and then managing the uncertainty. One added tool is to run sensitivity cases based on informed decision making. The weight of evidence approach considers all relevant information in an integrative assessment that takes into account the kinds of evidence available, the quality and quantity, the uncertainty and error associated with each type, and how they fit together. Evidence of integration involves looking at systematic reviews and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. In conclusion, Ecology, Washington State's lead regulatory agency at the Hanford site, has had to modify its site closure approach compared to the rest of the state. A more holistic approach dealing with the Hanford site as an integrated system has evolved leading to a defensible informed approach for regulatory closure decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Model description document for a computer program for the emulation/simulation of a space station environmental control and life support system (ESCM)

Emulation/Simulation Computer Model (ESCM) computes the transient performance of a Space Station air revitalization subsystem with carbon dioxide removal provided by a solid amine water desorbed subsystem called SAWD. This manual describes the mathematical modeling and equations used in the ESCM. For the system as a whole and for each individual component, the fundamental physical and chemical laws which govern their operations are presented. Assumptions are stated, and when necessary, data is presented to support empirically developed relationships.

Yanosy, James L.↗

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Framework for Optimal Placement of Rooftop Photovoltaic: Maximizing Solar Production and Operational Cost Savings in Residential Communities

Optimizing the placement of photovoltaic (PV) panels on residential buildings has the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency benefits to both homeowners and communities. Strategic PV placement can lower electricity costs by reducing the electricity fed from the grid during on-peak hours, while maintaining PV panel efficiency in terms of the amount of solar radiation received. In this article, we present a framework that identifies the ideal location of PV panels on residential rooftops. Our framework combines energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to inform PV placement as it relates to and affects the entire community (in terms of both energy use and financial cost), as well as individual buildings. Ensuring that our framework accounts for shading from nearby buildings, different utility rate structures, and different buildings’ energy demand profiles means that existing communities and future housing developments can be optimized for energy savings and PV efficiency. The framework comprises two workflows, each contributing to optimal PV placement with a unique target: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency (i.e., solar generation) and (b) minimizing operational energy cost considering utility rate structures for operational energy. We apply our framework to a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to demonstrate the optimal PV placement, considering the two workflow targets. Here, we present our results and illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal Efficiency and Operational Cost Savings: A Framework for Automated Rooftop PV Placement

Residential energy consumers are charged based on a utility rate structure, such as net metering or feed-in tariff. To lower consumers' electricity bills, expensive batteries are deployed to reduce the electricity fed from the grid during peak hours. However, strategic photovoltaic (PV) panel placement enables the reduction of operational energy cost while considering the spatial feasibility and efficiency for hosting rooftop PV. In this paper, we present a framework to automatically identify the optimal location of rooftop PV panels on residential buildings. Our framework integrates multiple workflows, including energy and environmental simulation, parametric modeling, and optimization to identify the ideal location of PV panels to balance the demand and supply at a building and community scale. These workflows are linked using the Grasshopper plug-in for Rhinoceros CAD software. The framework includes two different workflows, each satisfying a target for optimal PV placement: (a) maximizing PV panel efficiency, where users aim to maximize energy generation, and (b) minimizing operational energy cost, where "best'' panels are selected considering utility rates for operational energy cost. Our framework is demonstrated in a residential community in Fort Collins, Colorado, to generate the optimal PV placement for each of the two aforementioned targets. Results from the two workflows are compared to illustrate the effect of PV location and orientation on solar energy production efficiency and operational energy cost. The developed workflows are introduced as tools within the Grasshopper plug-in to investigate the solar potential of rooftop PV panels while taking into account factors such as contextual shading, utility rate structures, and buildings' energy demand profiles.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Topography and functional traits shape the distribution of key shrub plant functional types in low-Arctic tundra

The expansion of shrubs in the Arctic tundra fundamentally modifies land-atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub distribution and expansion differ across key species due to challenges with discriminating tundra plant species at regional scales. Here, we combined multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing and in situ trait measurements to elucidate the distribution patterns and primary controls of two representative deciduous-tall-shrub (DTS) genera, Alnus and Salix, in low-Arctic tundra. We show that topographic features were a key control on DTSs, creating heterogeneous, but predictable distributions of Alnus and Salix fractional cover (fCover). Alnus was more tolerant of elevation and slope and was found on hilly uplands (slope >10°) within a specific elevational band (200–400 m above sea level [MSL]). In contrast, Salix occurred at lower elevations (50–300 m MSL) on gentler slopes (3-10°) and required adequate soil moisture associated with its profligate water use. We also show that niche differentiation between Alnus and Salix changed with patch size, where larger patches were more specialized in resource requirements than individual plants of Alnus and Salix. To understand what constrains the growth of DTSs at locations with low fCover, we developed environmental limiting factor models, which showed that topography limits the upper bound of Alnus and Salix fCover in 69.2% and 48.7% of the landscape, respectively. These findings highlight a critical need to better understand and represent topography-controlled processes and functional traits in regulating shrub distribution, as well as a need for more detailed species classification to predict shrubification in the Arctic.

alder↗

Cycles-L: A Coupled, 3-D, Land Surface, Hydrologic, and Agroecosystem Landscape Model

Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and environmental stewardship can be informed by spatially-distributed models that operate at spatial and temporal scales that are intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale agroecosystem and hydrologic modeling system, using as a test case a watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L emerges from melding the landscape and hydrology structure of Flux-PIHM, a 3-D land surface hydrologic model, with the agroecosystem processes in the Cycles model. Consequently, Cycles-L can simulate processes affected by topography, soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its physically-based hydrology that can simulate horizontal and vertical transport of solutes with water. The model was tested at a 730-ha experimental watershed within the Mahantango Creek watershed. Cycles-L simulated well stream water and mineral nitrogen discharge (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55 and 0.60, respectively) and grain yield (root mean square error 1.2 Mg ha -1 ). Cycles-L outputs are as good or better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water discharge) and Cycles (grain yield) models. Modeled spatial patterns of nitrogen fluxes like denitrification illustrate the combined control of crop management and topography. For example, denitrification is almost twice as high when simulated with Cycles-L than when simulated with Cycles 1-D. Due to its spatial and temporal resolution, Cycles-L fills a gap in the availability of models that operate at a scale relevant to evaluate interventions in the landscape. Cycles-L can become a central component in tools for climate change scenario analysis, precision agriculture, precision conservation, and artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.

variable-resolution global climate models↗

The first field application of a low-cost MPC for grid-interactive K-12 schools: Lessons-learned and savings assessment

K-12 schools are the largest energy consumers in the public sector, with their HVAC energy consumption representing the largest portion of their total energy use. While transitioning these schools to grid-interactive HVAC system operation through advanced controls offers significant financial and environmental benefits, and model predictive control (MPC) has been identified as a promising solution to achieve that, very few MPCs are affordable and have been deployed in K-12 schools. This situation raises concerns about the unclear real-world benefits of MPC technology among facility managers and industries. To address this gap, this paper presents a low-cost MPC solution that requires minimal control infrastructure costs and a unique field demonstration at a K-12 school, conducted for both cooling and heating seasons. This work adopted a previously developed MPC and extended it for use in the school application. The MPC aims to coordinate multiple packaged units to eliminate unnecessary peaks and shift cooling or heating loads in response to grid signals based on load conditions, while maintaining thermostat temperatures within school-defined bounds. Throughout the field tests, the MPC achieved a 24% reduction in peak demand during the cooling season and shifted cooling or heating loads by up to 16% in response to the school's utility tariff, considering load conditions, while also allowing end-users to override thermostat setpoints. Further, the paper also discusses the limitations of this study and future research directions for better performance of the MPC at K-12 schools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Blended fuel property analysis of butyl-exchanged polyoxymethylene ethers as renewable diesel blendstocks

Methyl-terminated polyoxymethylene ethers (MM-POMEs), having the formula CH 3 O-(CH 2 O)n-CH 3 (n = 3-6), are a class of oxygenates with desirable diesel-like fuel properties including high cetane number and low soot formation. However, their low energy density and high water-solubility present barriers to their adoption. Both concerns were recently addressed by our research group by synthesizing a mixture of POME structures having butyl end-groups and n = 1-6, termed B*POME1-6. B*POME1-6 maintained the advantageous properties of the parent MM-POMEs, and exhibited improved energy density and most notably, dramatically decreased water solubility. For evaluation against a set of criteria for a blended diesel blendstock, a 20 vol% blend of B*POME1-6 with a base diesel fuel was investigated here. Oxidation stability, cetane number, sooting tendency, lubricity and conductivity were improved in the B*POME1-6 blend compared with the base diesel, while also maintaining the flash point, cloud point, energy density, viscosity, and boiling point requirements. The B*POME1-6 product demonstrated a synergistic blending behavior at 10 vol% and a linear blending behavior at 20-30 vol% blends, in agreement with similar POME blends at comparable blend levels. Finally, common environmental and toxicity models performed on B*POME1-6 component molecules suggested they have a greater propensity to partition into the water compartment compared to a common diesel surrogate, but with a lower tendency to bioaccumulate.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Interplay of microbial communities with mineral environments in coralline algae

Coralline algae are worldwide carbonate builders, considered to be foundational species and biodiversity hotspots. Coralline habitats face increasing pressure from human activities and effects related to Global Change, yet their ecological properties and adaptive responses remain poorly understood. The relationships of the algal microbiota with the mineral bioconstructions, as well as plasticity and resilience of coralline holobionts in a changing environment, are of particular interest. In the Gulf of California, Neogoniolithon trichotomum (Rhodophyta) is the main carbonate builder in tidal pools. We performed a multi-disciplinary assessment of the N. trichotomum microstructure using XRD, SEM microscopy and SR-FTIR spectromicroscopy. In the algal perithallus, magnesium-calcite and aragonite were spatially segregated and embedded in a polysaccharide matrix (rich in sulfated polysaccharides). Mg-calcites (18-19 mol% Mg) were the main mineral components of the thallus overall, followed by iron carbonates related to dolomite (ankerite) and siderite. Minerals of late evaporitic sequences (sylvite and bischofite) were also present, suggesting potential halophilic microenvironments within the algal thalli. The diverse set of abundant halophilic, halotolerant and oligotrophic taxa, whose abundance increase in the summer, further suggests this condition. We created an integrated model, based on environmental parameters and the microbiota distribution, that identified temperature and nutrient availability (particularly nitrate and silicate) as the main parameters related to specific taxa patterns. Among these, Hahella, Granulossicoccus, Ferrimonas, Spongiibacteraceae and cyanobacterial Xenococcaceae and Nostocaceae change significantly between seasons. These bacterial components might play relevant roles in algal plasticity and adaptive responses to a changing environment. This study contributes to the understanding of the interplay of the prokaryotic microbiota with the mineral microenvironments of coralline algae. Because of their carbonates with potential resistance to dissolution in a higher pCO 2 world and their seasonally dynamic bacteria, coralline algae are relevant targets to study coastal resilience and carbonated systems responses to changing environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗