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At least 595 records · Page 33

The impact of wind, solar, and other factors on the decline in wholesale power prices in the United States

Across multiple organized wholesale power markets in the United States, annual average prices declined by 19–64 dollars per MWh between 2008 and 2017 while retirements of thermal power plants accelerated. Several prominent changes over the last decade are often discussed as contributors to this decline in prices. These include growth in wind and solar, a reduction in the price of natural gas, and weakened load growth. Here we construct a fundamental supply curve model for each of seven organized wholesale market regions and use counterfactual simulations to assess the degree to which wind and solar—among other factors—have influenced wholesale electricity prices. We find that growth in wind and solar since 2008 reduced average annual wholesale electricity prices by less than 3 dollars per MWh. In contrast the decline in natural gas prices reduced wholesale prices by 7–53 dollars per MWh, depending on the region. This suggests that recent thermal-plant retirements in the U.S. are primarily due to low natural gas prices, not growth in wind and solar. Fully isolating the impact of individual factors, however, is limited by non-linear interactions between factors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Standards Guidance for Electric Two- and Three-Wheelers and Charging Infrastructure in Pakistan

Electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) and electric three-wheelers (E3Ws) have reached upfront cost price parity as compared to their conventional counterparts in many markets (IEA 2022). Therefore, Pakistan has embraced E2Ws and E3Ws in their National Electric Vehicle Policy (Government of Pakistan 2019b). Specifically, this policy targets 50% of new two- and three-wheeler sales to be electric by 2030. In the short term, this policy targets five times as many E2Ws and E3Ws as cars, vans, and pickups. In order to meet these goals in a safe, reliable, and efficient manner, Pakistan needs to develop and implement standards related to E2W and E3W vehicles and charging infrastructure, including battery swap stations. Without standards, E2Ws and E3Ws can be dangerous, unreliable, incompatible with charging stations, or diminish the grid’s electricity quality (Goel and Singh 2019; Sasidharan 2020). Fortunately, there are several global and local efforts to establish standards that Pakistan can learn from or adopt. This document explains the purpose and process of standards development and introduces the international standards development organizations involved and relevant classification and testing systems. It then introduces and lists many standards related to the vehicles, batteries, and charging equipment so that Pakistan can adopt or reference these standards when developing its own.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Opportunities for Clean Energy in Natural Gas Well Operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce both costs and emissions while improving resilience against electric grid outages. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy generation and storage technologies to support companies’ energy cost savings, clean energy, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics (PV), distributed wind energy, and battery energy storage at hypothetical upstream well sites in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, both grid-connected and off-grid. Results indicate opportunity for solar PV to reduce operational costs. Additionally, these technologies reduce the site’s consumption of grid electricity and natural gas and thus can help reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions associated with electricity and natural gas consumption. For each emissions reduction scenario, a cost of avoided emissions was calculated; these values can be compared to internal organizational value placed on emissions reductions, compared to other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, and direct carbon capture and sequestration, and compared to existing (albeit limited) U.S. carbon markets such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via distributed renewables are competitive with these options and markets. The study also explores the ability of these electric clean energy technologies to support site resiliency against utility outages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Opportunities for Clean Energy in Natural Gas Well Operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce both costs and emissions while improving resilience against electric grid outages. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy generation and storage technologies to support companies' energy cost savings, clean energy, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics (PV), distributed wind energy, and battery energy storage at hypothetical upstream well sites in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, both grid-connected and off-grid. Results indicate opportunity for solar PV to reduce operational costs. Additionally, these technologies reduce the site's consumption of grid electricity and natural gas and thus can help reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions associated with electricity and natural gas consumption. For each emissions reduction scenario, a cost of avoided emissions was calculated; these values can be compared to internal organizational value placed on emissions reductions, compared to other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, and direct carbon capture and sequestration, and compared to existing (albeit limited) U.S. carbon markets such as California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via distributed renewables are competitive with these options and markets. The study also explores the ability of these electric clean energy technologies to support site resiliency against utility outages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Equitable Access to Community Solar: Program Design and Subscription Considerations

Over 2.7 GWac community solar has been installed in the U.S. as of 2020, and 44% (1.2 GWac ) were installed after 2018, which indicates a fast-growing segment of the solar market .Community solar refers to a system that allows customers to subscribe part of a solar PV system and receive credit on their electricity bills based on power production. Although the growth of community solar market makes accessing solar energy easier, low and moderate income (LMI) potential subscribers may still face challenges, such as no or low credit scores.To investigate the program designs and subscription considerations for LMI customers, we provide a summary of existing state-level low-income community solar policies, as well as estimated LMI capacity and subscribers in the U.S.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Analysis of the turbostratic structures in PAN-based carbon fibers with wide-angle x-ray diffraction

Carbon fiber (CF) is a versatile material renowned for its excellent mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties. Polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based CFs dominate the market due to their high tensile strength, rendering them suitable for structural applications in a wide variety of applications ranging from sporting goods to aerospace. Over five decades of commercial development of PAN-based CF has resulted in a range of varieties with different tensile moduli and tensile strengths. The microstructures, nanostructures, and crystal structures of PAN-based CF play pivotal roles in the macroscale properties of this material. In particular, the crystal structure and crystallite orientation in CF is closely related to the mechanical properties. The crystal structure of PAN-based CF generally consists of turbostratic carbon, which is a disordered form of graphite, the characteristics of which can be effectively characterized in a bulk format through wide-angle x-ray diffraction (WAXD). In this work, we employed a three-part approach to the analysis of WAXD patterns collected from four intermediate modulus PAN-based CFs. The approach incorporates a Scherrer analysis, a Debye analysis, and an orientational analysis to provide precise estimates of crystallite sizes, crystallite distributions, and crystallite orientations with the fiber axis. Furthermore, the results presented here suggest that intermediate modulus PAN-based CF mostly consists of small turbostratic crystallites (<4 nm), with larger crystallites having increased orientation with the fiber axis. The results here imply the presence of curvature and/or wrinkling of the turbostratic layers within the CF structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The impacts of COVID-19 on clean energy labor markets: Evidence from multifaceted analysis of public health interventions and COVID-health factors

COVID-19 pandemic has affected clean energy labor market. Using real-time job vacancy data, this study analyzes the impacts of the pandemic on the U.S. clean energy labor market in 2020, including biomass, energy efficiency (EE), electric vehicle (EV), power/microgrid, solar, and wind industries. This study identifies how COVID-health factors and public health interventions influence clean energy job availability during the early COVID pandemic. Overall, California had the most energy jobs and experienced a significant decrease in April 2020. EV and solar had the highest percentages of job vacancies during the pandemic in general. Still, lockdowns had the most severe influence on EE and wind jobs. Stay-at-home orders negatively affected clean energy job vacancies in biomass, EV, power/microgrid, and wind. Social-gathering restrictions, however, did not have much influence. Increased COVID tests at the state level had the strongest and most positive influence on clean energy job postings, indicating the importance of a state's ability to manage public health infrastructure or crisis issues. COVID hospitalizations negatively influenced the job vacancies in biomass and wind but did not affect the other four sectors; conversely, as COVID death numbers increased, the number of jobs in biomass, EV, power grid, solar, and wind decreased, but not in EE jobs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Regulators’ Financial Toolbox: Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Energy Storage Summary

On October 10, 2023, NARUC’s Center for Partnerships & Innovation (CPI) hosted a Regulators’ Financial Toolbox Webinar on the topic of Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Energy Storage. The webinar featured opening remarks by the Honorable Katherine Peretick, Commissioner, Michigan Public Service Commission; and presentations by Ryan Chan, Principal Strategic Analyst, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); Arushi Sharma Frank, Energy Market Design Lead and Senior Counsel for Energy Regulatory Matters and Greg Thurnher, Technical Program Manager, Tesla; and Mark LeBel, Senior Associate, Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗

Advanced Air Mobility and Safety Management Systems

Our current air transportation system has underserved markets, including local, regional, intraregional, and urban transportation of both people and cargo. Recent advances in aviation technology such as small highly-automated vehicles, electric aircraft, and automated air traffic are enabling business opportunities in these markets. Advanced Air Mobility, or AAM, refers to a community effort to overcome the gaps in operational rules, safety analysis, and overall acceptance, so that these new operations will be possible. For full details, please see: https://www.nasa.gov/aam As we think about how we can safely introduce these new operations, fundamental questions about how the structure of Safety Management Systems can be applied to AAM, and how that structure can be used to help us overcome the necessary technical and societal obstacles arise. Two of these questions are: • How do we tailor the requirements and desired level of monitoring and assessment to achieve safety given the breadth of possible operations and the associated risk of those operations? • How do we aid innovation by rapidly evaluating the safety of novel operations without losing associated rigor? We assume that a Safety Management System that enables these future systems will incorporate knowledge of the acceptable level of risk, and will utilize data science to automate the core monitor, assess and mitigate functions that will allow us to respond to risks and hazards in time to prevent safety incidents. In 2018, the National Academies proposed an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that would advance these goals. (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24962/in-time-aviation-safety-management-challenges-and-research-for-an) The National Academies made a clear distinction between in-time systems, in which hazards could be identified and risks mitigated in time to prevent incidents, and real-time systems, since many hazards and risks do not need real-time data and analysis to detect and mitigate.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' long-term planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is shown to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Transition Metal Blocking Microporous Polymer Separators for Energy-Dense and Long-Lived Li-ion Batteries

A revolution in electric-powered mobility is imminent, catalyzed by breakthroughs in Li-ion battery technology that have dramatically lowered the $/kWh price tag of electrochemical energy storage. Increases in production have also enabled greater penetration in key markets. World-wide registration of new plug-in hybrid electric and battery-only electric vehicles (PHEV and BEV) increased by 70% from 2014 to 2015, and sales of PHEVs and BEVs are predicted to be 35% of all vehicle sales by 2040, reaching 41 million units per year—a 90-fold increase from 2015.1,2 In stride with industry giants such as Tesla, EV manufacturers rely on Li-ion cell Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for relentless improvements in Li-ion battery technology necessary to drive this bullish market penetration outlook. Advancing energy and power density is critical to alleviating EV-customer range anxiety. Furthermore, strategies to extend battery-pack life beyond 1000 cycles—particularly when operating under aggressive duty cycles—requires fresh perspectives and innovation in cell components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Silicon Carbide Inverter for Off-Road Heavy-Duty Applications: The Importance of Thermal and Thermomechanical Design in Power Electronics Packaging

Electrification of drivetrain systems is now seen as a major opportunity by the transportation industry across the globe to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and revolutionize the travel patterns of millions of people. The cumulative number of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the United States has now surpassed 2 million in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. The introduction of EVs in different classes of passenger vehicles and the continued drop in prices spurred by government incentives have attracted the attention of consumers despite certain barriers, such as higher initial cost and range anxiety. In the United States, the EV market share is now growing at an exponential pace, with the domestic automakers allocating a lion's share of new and future car sales to EVs. Additionally, different market studies project decreasing cost and rising sales of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks. Although electrification initiatives are strongly pursued in the on-road passenger vehicle market, off-highway sectors, such as construction, mining, and agriculture, are also gradually implementing electric drivetrain technologies in their machineries. As EVs grow in popularity on a global scale, innovative drivetrain technologies must meet the increasing energy demand by significantly increasing system efficiency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 2: Advanced Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review

Electric motors in commercial and industrial applications account for almost a third of total electric grid load in the United States. With these applications representing such a significant level of energy use, increasing efficiency in these applications can help substantially increase resilience and lower total energy costs. This report examines stationary high-efficiency electric motor technologies and their supply chains.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An ERCOT test system for market design studies

An open source test system is developed that permits the dynamic modeling of centrally-managed wholesale power markets operating over highvoltage transmission grids. In default mode, the test system models basic operations in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT): namely, centrally-managed day-ahead and real-time markets operating over successive days, with congestion handled by locational marginal pricing. These basic operational features characterize all seven U.S. energy regions organized as centrally-managed wholesale power markets. Modeled participants include dispatchable generators, load-serving entities, and non-dispatchable generation such as unrmed wind and solar power. Users can congure a broad variety of parameters to study basic market and grid features under alternative system conditions. Users can also easily extend the test system's Java/Python software classes to study modied or newly envisioned market and grid features. Finally, the test system is integrated with a high-level simulation framework that permits it to function as a software component within larger systems, such as multi-country systems or integrated transmission and distribution systems. Finally, detailed test cases with 8-bus and 200-bus transmission grids are reported to illustrate these test system capabilities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fuel Cell Electric Bus Status Report 2025

This report highlights recent changes in the FCEB market, status updates for deployments, and a detailed performance evaluation of a large fleet of FCEBs operated by Foothill Transit in California during the period from June 2023 to December 2024.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗