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DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? (Final Economic Impact Results) [Slides]

The Village of Questa, New Mexico is aiming to become a regional clean energy hub with robust and diverse employment opportunities for the local community supported by the energy sector and by other businesses inspired or attracted by abundant clean energy, outdoor recreation, and cultural opportunities. A coalition of stakeholders in the Village of Questa, comprising the Village, Kit Carson Electric Cooperative (KCEC), Questa Economic Development Fund, and Chevron, is exploring options to develop hydrogen production facilities as an opportunity to create jobs, provide reliable clean energy, and utilize former mine resources. Questa is home to a molybdenum mine owned by Chevron that closed in 2014. Several residents in Questa and surrounding communities lost their jobs when the mine closed and transitioned from active operations into environmental remediation. Although remediation efforts have been ongoing since 2014 and are expected to continue for at least 16 more years, the number of jobs with Chevron is much smaller now than it was before the closure. Between available workforce, brownfield land, and water rights formerly supporting mine operations but now in a transition period, there are considerable local resources that could be directed toward clean energy generation. Questa's electricity supply is already 100% solar during daylight hours thanks to Kit Carson Electric Cooperative's (KCEC's) strategic decision-making and partnering over the last decade. Now, Questa, KCEC, and Chevron are exploring the potential costs and benefits of siting an electrolytic hydrogen production facility and additional solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Questa to further advance the region's clean energy economy. In this report, we estimated the potential economic impacts (i.e., jobs, value added, gross output, tax revenue) of constructing and operating a combined hydrogen (32 MW polymer electrolyte membrane electrolizer + 7.5 MW fuel cell) and solar facility (22.5 MW) in the Village of Questa, as well as the resulting economic spillovers to Taos County and the state of New Mexico. We employ an input-output model that leverages IMPLAN's economic data for the region complemented by construction and operating expenses estimated by NREL and feedback from the local coalition to evaluate the direct, indirect and induced effects of the project construction (transient impacts) and operation (more permanent impacts). Based on the area's average trade profile, feedback from the coalition and current market conditions, these projects are expected to support 487 full-time equivalent jobs during construction, generating $\$24$ million in income for those workers and $\$82$ million in local economic activity in the state. Of those jobs, 106 are expected to be construction sector jobs. These investments are also estimated to add $\$36.5$ million to New Mexico's gross state product (GSP). In the Village of Questa, we estimate 16 jobs will be supported in construction and transportation industries, generating $\$0.9$ million in earnings. In Taos County, the construction phase is expected to support 285 jobs primarily in construction and professional services, while manufacturing jobs dominate the results for the Rest of New Mexico. The Village is also estimated to receive $\$0.9$ million in tax revenue from the construction phase alone. Once in operation, the project continues to impact the state and Questa. Around 20 jobs (full-time equivalent for each year of operation) are supported across New Mexico, with approximately 11 directly employed in Questa by both facilities. The total annual local economic activity supported by ongoing operations is just over $\$1.3$ million/yr, generating $\$1.6$ million/yr in additional income in the state. Annual operations are estimated to add $\$2.1$ million to the state's GSP. The Village is expected to receive around $\$43,000$/yr in tax revenue. Impacts vary significantly depending on which businesses are supplying materials, equipment and services, and where construction workers reside. Choosing local suppliers will most benefit Questa and the New Mexico economy, adding up to 500 jobs during construction and 13 long-term jobs. Local and state governments may consider ways to incentivize local businesses in order to maximize economic benefits.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is Clean Hydrogen Production a Good Fit for Questa? Final Economic Impact Results

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance Capability and Automated Platform: Technical Report 3

This project is a collaborative research effort between PKMJ Technical Services LLC, Idaho National Laboratory, and Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Nuclear, LLC. The collaboration, led by PKMJ Technical Services LLC, is part of the industry Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) award under Advanced Nuclear Technology Development FOA #DE-FOA-0001817. The pilot demonstration focuses on the Circulating Water System (CWS), an important non-safety-related system that impacts the power generation capability of the plant site. Achieving riskinformed condition-based Predictive Maintenance (PdM) on the CWS will result in significant economic benefits, and the developed methodologies can also be applied to other plant systems. This approach supports an industry goal of ensuring that nuclear power generation remains a viable, economically competitive option in the energy market. Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs include labor-intensive Preventive Maintenance (PM) programs that involve manually performed inspection, calibration, testing, and maintenance of plant assets at periodic frequencies as well as time-based replacement of assets, irrespective of condition. This project offers an alternative by focusing on riskinformed condition-based maintenance to reduce O&M costs while still maintaining plant health and safety. This report summarizes the progress made toward achieving a risk-informed condition-based maintenance approach. The research and development (R&D) activities presented in this report are associated with development of a nuclear digital platform application, integration of fault signature models, and automated work management processes. The fault signatures and Machine Learning (ML) models are key components in predictive analytics and are heavily leveraged to improve the insights received by existing plant process data sources. Availability of the analysis results within a centralized digital platform enhances efficiency by enabling automation of activities otherwise performed manually. Personnel are presented with enhanced information that can be used to evaluate plant status and risks. Utilizing the enhancements to data analytics supports automated responses, (i.e. issuance of work orders) to address developing equipment faults and thus preventing forced, unplanned shutdowns of components or systems. The R&D activities described within this report lay the foundation for developing and demonstrating a digital automated platform to centralize the implementation of condition monitoring and response to equipment faults. The digital automated platform is cloud-based and designed to enable improved efficiency of plant processes. The digital platform includes content related to maintenance optimization, fault signature analysis, and plant records, which can all be used to support efficiencies when located within a centralized digital platform. These efficiencies could be further enhanced when deployed through industry-wide deployment of the technology to improve insights and processes based upon economies of scale.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2026

CFD-Assisted Nodal Modeling of Sloshing in a Cryogenic Propellant Tank

During autogenous pressurization, tank sloshing causes a significant increase in pressurant consumption to maintain constant ullage pressure during draining of the tank. This increase in pressurant consumption is caused by a significant increase in condensation at the liquid-vapor interface. Sloshing strongly affects the liquid side heat transfer coefficient and thereby the condensation rate. Traditionally, sloshing is modeled by CFD code using the VOF (Volume of Fluid) method to track the liquid vapor interface during sloshing. CFD calculations require a very fine grid to accurately compute the heat and mass transfer at the interface. Therefore, computations are time consuming and prohibit performing many parametric studies often needed during the design of a new system. This paper describes an alternative approach by developing a CFD-assisted nodal model to predict system parameters more economically with reasonable accuracy. In this approach, a multi-node model of tank pressurization was developed using GFSSP. A multi-node model was needed to account for stratification. The model computes heat and mass transfer at the interface to calculate the condensation rate. The liquid side heat transfer is computed using the parameters of sloshing dynamics such as frequency, wave amplitude, and interface area. The parameters of sloshing dynamics are computed by the CFD code LOCI-Stream. The model predictions were compared with test data for several cases.

Cryogenic Tank Sloshing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated transportation-power system model for a decarbonizing world

Rising demand for electricity from electric vehicles (EVs) will require new paradigms to guarantee reliable and low-cost electricity. This study couples an agent-based travel demand simulator and an electricity grid model to assess the economic costs of supplying power to meet EVs' added demand across the Chicago region. Results suggest that shifting from personal EVs to a fleet of shared, fully-automated all-electric vehicles (SAEVs) could lower per-mile emissions, congestion, and embodied vehicle and charging infrastructure emissions. Further, the results should compel policymakers to shift the cost of providing power onto commercial customers, like electric ride-hail fleets, through price-indexed electricity prices, which can shift charging to off-peak periods or away from resource-scarce hours.

Integrated modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

A cost comparison of various hourly-reliable and net-zero hydrogen production pathways in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) as an energy carrier may play a role in various hard-to-abate subsectors, but to maximize emission reductions, supplied hydrogen must be reliable, low-emission, and low-cost. Here, we build a model that enables direct comparison of the cost of producing net-zero, hourly-reliable hydrogen from various pathways. To reach net-zero targets, we assume upstream and residual facility emissions are mitigated using negative emission technologies. For the United States (California, Texas, and New York), model results indicate next-decade hybrid electricity-based solutions are lower cost ($2.02-$2.88/kg) than fossil-based pathways with natural gas leakage greater than 4% ($2.73-$5.94/kg). These results also apply to regions outside of the U.S. with a similar climate and electric grid. However, when omitting the net-zero emission constraint and considering the U.S. regulatory environment, electricity-based production only achieves cost-competitiveness with fossil-based pathways if embodied emissions of electricity inputs are not counted under U.S. Tax Code Section 45V guidance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Yield from Iowa’s first commercial miscanthus fields: implications of spatial variability for productivity and sustainability beyond research plots

This dataset contains biomass yield measurements and associated vegetation index data collected from commercial Miscanthus × giganteus fields in eastern Iowa during the 2022–2023 growing seasons. The data support the analyses presented in the article: “Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots.” We collected 105 ground-truth biomass samples from four mature commercial fields (>4 years old) covering 92.81 ha. Samples were taken from 3 m² quadrats that were hand-harvested in alignment with commercial harvest timing. Stem biomass (excluding leaves) was weighed, moisture-corrected, and converted to dry-matter yield expressed in Mg DM ha⁻¹. Sampling locations were selected to capture spatial variability visible in aerial imagery and were recorded using RTK GPS. Each biomass observation was paired with vegetation indices derived from high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery (3 m resolution). Images were acquired throughout the growing season, and indices were calculated to evaluate their ability to predict end-of-season biomass yield. Statistical and machine learning approaches were used to identify key predictors, and a linear regression model based on end-of-July Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) was developed and evaluated. This repository includes the data used in that modeling workflow. Management practices, economic data, full imagery time series, and additional methodological details are described in the associated publication and are not included here. The dataset consists of three comma-separated value (CSV) files: 1. Combine_Groundtruth_Yield_VI_22_23.csv This file contains ground-truth biomass yield measurements and associated key vegetation index values collected during the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons. Rows: 105 observations Columns: Year — Year of observation (2022 or 2023) Field — Field location identifier Sample_number — Unique sample identifier GNDVI_End_Jul — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of July GNDVI_End_Aug — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of August NDRE_End_Aug — Normalized Difference Red Edge index calculated at end of August Biomass_Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (megagrams dry matter per hectare) 2. trainData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the subset of observations used to train the predictive relationship between July GNDVI and biomass yield. Rows: 76 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Observed stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) 3. testData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the test dataset used to evaluate model performance. Rows: 29 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Predicted_Yield_MgDM/ha — Model-predicted stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) Observed_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹)

Potential yield, yield gap, in-field management, y↗

DOE OSTI2021

PastoralScape: An Environment-Driven Model of Vaccination Decision Making Within Pastoralist Groups in East Africa

Economic and cultural resilience among pastoralists in East Africa is threatened by the interconnected forces of climate change, contagious diseases spread and evolving national and international trade. A key factor in the resilience of livestock that communities depend on is human decision making regarding vaccination against prevalent diseases such as Rift Valley fever and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia. This paper describes an agent-based model that couples models of disease propagation, animal health, human decision making, and external GIS data sources capturing measures of foraging condition. We describe the design of the sub-models, their coupling, and demonstrate the sensitivity of the model to parameters that relate to controllable factors such as government and NGO information sources that can influence human decision making patterns. This model is intended to form the basis upon which richer economic and human factor models can be built.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of key energy and performance metrics for drug product manufacturing

During the development of pharmaceutical manufacturing processes, detailed systems-based analysis and optimization are required to control and regulate critical quality attributes within specific ranges, to maintain product performance. As discussions on carbon footprint, sustainability, and energy efficiency are gaining prominence, the development and utilization of these concepts in pharmaceutical manufacturing are seldom reported, which limits the potential of pharmaceutical industry in maximizing key energy and performance metrics. Based on an integrated modeling and techno-economic analysis framework previously developed by the authors, this study presents the development of a combined sensitivity analysis and optimization approach to minimize energy consumption while maintaining product quality and meeting operational constraints in a pharmaceutical process. The optimal input process conditions identified were validated against experiments and good agreement resulted between simulated and experimental data. Here, the results also allowed for a comparison of the capital and operational costs for batch and continuous manufacturing schemes under nominal and optimized conditions. Using the nominal batch operations as a basis, the optimized batch operation results in a 71.7% reduction of energy consumption, whereas the optimized continuous case results in an energy saving of 83.3%.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE-based Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for advanced open-source tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling

Tritium management is critical for the safety, sustainability, and economics of fusion energy systems, and advanced and reliable modeling tools help accelerate the development of tritium technologies. This paper presents the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8), an open-source, MOOSE-based application developed to provide state-of-the-art tritium transport and fuel cycle modeling capabilities. TMAP8 aims to expand the capabilities of previous versions (i.e., TMAP4 and TMAP7) by leveraging modern computational techniques, ensuring high software quality assurance standards (key to building trust), and enabling multispecies, multiscale, and multiphysics simulations for integrated tritium transport modeling in complex geometries. This paper outlines TMAP8’s scope and rigorous development practices, emphasizing its transparency, accessibility, modularity, and reliability. We present the current suite of verification and validation cases based on those from TMAP4, demonstrating TMAP8’s accuracy and reliability against analytical solutions and experimental data. Additionally, the paper showcases TMAP8’s integrated fuel cycle modeling capabilities, highlighting its applicability at various scales and levels. The TMAP8 code and documentation are openly available, promoting collaborative development and widespread adoption within the fusion community. Future work will soon expand TMAP8’s verification and validation suite to include those from TMAP7 and other recent experimental studies for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1975

Remote sensing inputs to water demand modeling

In an attempt to determine the ability of remote sensing techniques to economically generate data required by water demand models, the Geography Remote Sensing Unit, in conjunction with the Kern County Water Agency of California, developed an analysis model. As a result it was determined that agricultural cropland inventories utilizing both high altitude photography and LANDSAT imagery can be conducted cost effectively. In addition, by using average irrigation application rates in conjunction with cropland data, estimates of agricultural water demand can be generated. However, more accurate estimates are possible if crop type, acreage, and crop specific application rates are employed. An analysis of the effect of saline-alkali soils on water demand in the study area is also examined. Finally, reference is made to the detection and delineation of water tables that are perched near the surface by semi-permeable clay layers. Soil salinity prediction, automated crop identification on a by-field basis, and a potential input to the determination of zones of equal benefit taxation are briefly touched upon.

Estes, J. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Game theoretic modeling and optimization of competition and collaboration in dual channel electronic waste supply chains

The rapid growth of electronic waste (e-waste) presents critical challenges for sustainable resource recovery and environmental protection. This study develops a dual-channel closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) model formulated as a hierarchical Stackelberg game, that integrates dynamic pricing and cost-sharing mechanisms to optimize both economic and environmental outcomes. The model explicitly captures strategic interactions between manufacturer-led and third-party recycling channels, accounting for consumer behavior, regulatory incentives, and market competition. Numerical simulations conducted (implemented over a four-iteration horizon using a commercial optimization solver) show that, relative to the baseline equilibrium, manufacturer profit increases from 11.6 thousand USD to 37.9 thousand USD (+226.8%), total recycled volume rises from 7,848 to 7,942 units (+1.2%), and collector profit nearly doubles under cost-sharing, enabling more equitable profit distribution. Furthermore, scenario-based simulations across Sub-Saharan Africa, high-income economies, and emerging Asian industrial countries reveal that infrastructure quality, policy intensity, and labor costs critically shape recycling efficiency and profit allocation. These findings demonstrate that subsidies alone are insufficient to ensure system efficiency. Instead, coordinated strategies that integrate internal incentive alignment with context-sensitive policy support are required. Overall, this study offers a robust framework for designing resilient, efficient, and regionally adaptable e-waste management systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels (2019 State of Technology)

Each year, the DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) assesses progress in their research and development efforts toward sustainable production of renewable fuels. Technical and cost targets were previously established for the wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude upgrading pathway and summarized in a design report. The present report summarizes the research and associated techno-economic analysis (TEA) in support of the 2019 state of technology (SOT) assessment for this pathway. Data from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Conversion hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) program for wet waste was used to update the pathway techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the fiscal year 2019 State of Technology (2019 SOT). An overview of the current process model, experimental data and plant economics for the SOT is presented.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗