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Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.
When parallel algorithms for simulation were introduced in the 1970s, their development and use interested only experts in parallel computation. This circumstance changed as multi-core processors became commonplace, putting a parallel computer into the hands of every modeler. A natural outcome is growing interest in parallel simulation among persons not intimately familiar with parallel computing. At the same time, parallel simulation tools continue to be developed with the implicit assumption that the modeler is knowledgeable about parallel programming. The unintended consequence is a rapidly growing number of users of parallel simulation tools that are unlikely to recognize when the interaction of race conditions, partitioning strategies, and simultaneous action in their simulation models make results non-reproducible, thereby calling into question the validity of conclusions drawn from the simulation data. Here, we illustrate the potential dangers of exposing parallel algorithms to users who are not experts in parallel computation with example models constructed using existing parallel simulation tools. By doing so, we hope to refocus tool developers on usability, even if this new focus incurs loss of some performance.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.
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Last year, we refactored the major components of the SpotSDC visualization platform and added a visualization component for fault tolerance boundary. Also, we designed a new analysis framework to understand an application resiliency with a significantly less amount of samples compared to previous approaches. We evaluated the visualization platform and analysis framework for multiple critical HPC computation kernels and collected evidence for the effectiveness of the method developed.
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