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DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

Abstract Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The In Situ Ion Irradiation Toolbox: Time-Resolved Structure and Property Measurements

Abstract The dynamic interactions of ions with matter drive a host of complex evolution mechanisms, requiring monitoring on short spatial and temporal scales to gain a full picture of a material response. Understanding the evolution of materials under ion irradiation and displacement damage is vital for many fields, including semiconductor processing, nuclear reactors, and space systems. Despite materials in service having a dynamic response to radiation damage, typical characterization is performed post-irradiation, washing out all information from transient processes. Characterizing active processes in situ during irradiation allows the mechanisms at play during the dynamic ion-material interaction process to be deciphered. In this review, we examine the in situ characterization techniques utilized for examining material structure, composition, and property evolution under ion irradiation. Covering analyses of microstructure, surface composition, and material properties, this work offers a perspective on the recent advances in methods for in situ monitoring of materials under ion irradiation, including a future outlook examining the role of complementary and combined characterization techniques in understanding dynamic materials evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A large-scale, agent-based simulation of metropolitan freight movements with passenger and freight market interactions

This study summarizes the first stage in the implementation of an agent-based freight modeling system that has a global representation of agents and detailed modeling of a large-scale transportation network. The model is used to evaluate the transportation and energy impacts of goods movement across urban and national scales. The framework is implemented within POLARIS, a C++-based Planning and Operations Language for Agent-based Regional Integrated Simulation, which consists of an activity-based modeling (ABM) and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) system that has robust features for passenger travel. This platform provides a tool to model interactions among consumers, producers, and the transportation system. The main objective of this initial implementation is to implement a freight model within POLARIS following an agent-based paradigm with behavioral and simulation methods. This paper presents the initial framework and illustrates the application of the model. Building upon earlier works, a parcel location assignment algorithm for business establishments in the population is documented, along with a method for estimating establishment production and consumption volumes. In addition to population generation, other features of the model include push-pull supply chains, multimodal path choice, choice of transportation logistics node, and dynamic traffic assignment. A module with e-commerce supply and demand was also developed to analyze the effects of e-commerce delivery on last-mile energy use and congestion.

agent-based freight↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying transport and electrocatalytic reaction processes in a gastight rotating cylinder electrode reactor via integration of Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling and experiments

Understanding the complexity of the multiple processes of mass, momentum, charge, and heat transport, and how these affect reaction kinetics at the electrode/electrolyte interface is one of the major challenges in the field of energy and catalysis. The rapid and rational scale-up of electrocatalytic systems to industrial scales require a detailed understanding of nonlinear transport-reaction processes, accessible only through the building of multi-physics models that capture with high fidelity the complexity of real-world devices. The gastight rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) reactor is a promising lab-scale tool that can decouple transport from intrinsic kinetics to generate data for first-principle models useful in the design of industrial, electrochemical reactors. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) studies have previously been used to investigate the bulk flow in RCE reactors for simple corrosion and electroplating processes. However, the quantification of changes in local concentration within the viscous layer where catalysis takes place requires capturing the correct flow conditions inside the hydrodynamic boundary layer near the surface of the electrode. Further, this requires simulations with spatial resolution in the nm and μm scale and temporal resolutions between ms and s scales that are similar to the timescales for reactions on the electrode surface. In this study, experimental electrocatalysis is combined with CFD modeling to elucidate and parameterize the hydrodynamics in a gastight RCE reactor. CFD simulations of the electrochemical ferricyanide reduction reaction under mass transport limited conditions are used to evaluate the validity of the CFD model parameters by comparing calculated dimensionless mass transport descriptors to dimensionless correlations obtained experimentally. Justifications for assumptions and details of the simulation methods used in this study are presented to provide a detailed understanding of the effect that each model parameter has on the ability to accurately simulate electrocatalysis in RCE systems. The simulation methodology reported here is a first step towards the development of multi-scale models for the study of transport dependent electrocatalytic processes, such as the electrochemical transformation of CO 2 to fuels and chemicals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multireference Methods for Chemistry and Materials Science: Automated Active Spaces, Efficient Dynamic Correlation, and Extended Systems

While multiconfigurational approaches have long been relegated to expert practitioners working on a case-by-case basis, recent developments have increasingly made these methods more routine and applicable to broader sets of systems. This article outlines the state-of-the-art in multiconfigurational approaches, with an emphasis on moving from delicate hand-selected pathways through configuration space toward more robust and efficient approaches to treating a host of challenging chemical systems accurately. First, we overview recent work in automated active-space selection, which has enabled increasingly large-scale applications of multireference methods to modeling vertical excitations and reactivity. Second, we highlight the increasingly efficient methods for recovering correlation energy beyond the active space, as headlined by extensions of pair-density functional theory and its role in accurate and efficient treatment of excited-state dynamics and its utilization to train machine-learned potentials. Finally, we highlight recent efforts to treat extended systems that until recently have lied beyond the traditional limits of active-space methods, giving center stage to product-form wave functions of the localized active space family of methods that allow for the computation of multiconfigurational band structures. These recent advancements point to a broader use of multireference approaches for high-impact chemical and materials science applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Atomic Evolution of Hydrogen Intercalation Wave Dynamics in Palladium Nanocrystals Revealed by Liquid-Phase Transmission Electron Microscopy

Solute-intercalation-induced phase separation creates spatial heterogeneities in host materials, a phenomenon ubiquitous in batteries, hydrogen storage, and other energy devices. Despite many efforts, probing intercalation processes at the atomic scale has been a significant challenge. By utilizing liquid-phase transmission electron microscopy (TEM), we study hydrogen (de)intercalation in palladium nanocrystals as a model system and have achieved unprecedented atomic-resolution imaging of hydrogen intercalation wave dynamics. Our observations reveal that intercalation wave mechanisms, instead of shrinking-core mechanisms, prevail at ambient temperature for palladium nanocubes ranging from ∼60 nm down to ∼10 nm. Systematic image analysis uncovers the atomic evolution of the hydrogen intercalation wave, transitioning from nonplanar and inclined boundaries to those closely aligned with {100} planes. Our kinetic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the observed intercalation wave dynamics correspond to sorption pathways minimizing the lattice mismatch strain at the phase boundary. In conclusion, unveiling the atomic intercalation pathways holds profound implications for engineering intercalation-mediated devices and advancements in energy sciences.

Lee, Daewon [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based quantum response theory and shadow Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

Graph-based linear scaling electronic structure theory for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations [A. M. N. Niklasson et al., J. Chem. Phys. 144, 234101 (2016)] is adapted to the most recent shadow potential formulations of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, including fractional molecular-orbital occupation numbers [A. M. N. Niklasson, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 104103 (2020) and A. M. N. Niklasson, Eur. Phys. J. B 94, 164 (2021)], which enables stable simulations of sensitive complex chemical systems with unsteady charge solutions. The proposed formulation includes a preconditioned Krylov subspace approximation for the integration of the extended electronic degrees of freedom, which requires quantum response calculations for electronic states with fractional occupation numbers. For the response calculations, we introduce a graph-based canonical quantum perturbation theory that can be performed with the same natural parallelism and linear scaling complexity as the graph-based electronic structure calculations for the unperturbed ground state. Further, the proposed techniques are particularly well-suited for semi-empirical electronic structure theory, and the methods are demonstrated using self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding theory both for the acceleration of self-consistent field calculations and for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations. Graph-based techniques combined with the semi-empirical theory enable stable simulations of large, complex chemical systems, including tens-of-thousands of atoms.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of scalable design optimization parameters for bi-component protective systems

Bi-component protection-systems need to withstand a variety of extreme loading conditions such as high-velocity projectile impact to shock and blast mitigation. The large number of parameters at each stage of bi-component protection system design process results in a near-infinite number of possible variables for optimization. The aim of this project is to identify the scaling laws linking material and geometric scales of the problem to the final impact performance, further including the effects of wave propagation/interaction and inter-component bonding. Specifically, the impact dynamics for different optimal projectile/target density ratios and relative component mass fractions are quantified for bonded ceramic/titanium alloy systems. The impact behavior such as wave mechanics and damage propagation within the target system is characterized and quantified via digital image correlation or via x-ray phase-contrast imaging.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Heat Integration Optimization and Dynamic Modeling Investigation for Advancing the Coal-Direct Chemical Looping Process

The purpose of the project is to address the optimization and startup operation of a modular coal direct chemical looping (CDCL) combustion system integrated with a steam cycle for power generation to reduce the risks involved in further scale-up of the technology. The modular reactor design of the CDCL process provides flexibility in the fabrication of the reactor and in its operating capacity (i.e. turndown ratio) at the cost of a more complex heat exchange network (HEN) design and integration. To address the technology gaps and advance the efficiency and economic feasibility of the CDCL technology, the project will perform a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the integration of a modular CDCL reactor system and a steam cycle system under both static and transient conditions via HEN process performance simulations and system dynamic modeling, respectively. The scope of work consists of 1) Experimental and computational studies of the CDCL combustor reactor 2) Comprehensive static (i.e. steady-state) system HEN design analysis in CDCL 550 MWe commercial unit for power generation and 3) Dynamic modeling of site specific design of 10MWe CDCL large pilot plant. The project team has successfully developed and validated a kinetic model for the oxidation of oxygen carriers in the combustor using the unreacted shrinking core model (UCSM). The model is capable of capturing the oxidation kinetics of fully or partially reduced oxygen carrier particles. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate the hydrodynamics, heat transfer, and chemical reaction occurring in the CDCL combustor. The model is developed in MFIX and ANSYS Fluent. Key aspects of CDCL combustor operation, including heat transfer, oxygen carrier oxidation, and the transport of oxygen carrier particles, are simulated using this CFD model. The HEN for a commercial scale 550 MWe CDCL power plant is simulated and optimized using ASPEN Plus. Practical design considerations are incorporated based on industrial experiences. The performance and cost for the commercial CDCL plant is updated based on these analyses. A dynamic model for the 10 MWe CDCL pilot plant is developed in ProTRAX simulation software. The model is based on the pilot plant design developed in project DE-FE0027654 “10 MWe CDCL Large Pilot Plang – Pre-FEED Study” and the steam cycle data obtained from Dover Light & Power plant. The transient behaviors during pilot plant load variation are simulated using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Steric effects of central dogma processes on the compaction and segregation of bacterial nucleoids

The bacterial cytoplasm is characterized by a distinctive membrane-less organelle, the nucleoid, which harbors the chromosomal DNA. Here, we investigate the steric effects of dynamic processes associated with transcription and translation on the structure of this organelle using coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations that incorporate out-of-equilibrium reactions. Our model captures the scale of the entire cell and incorporates a reaction-diffusion system for ribosomes and polyribosomes, coupling their nonequilibrium kinetics to DNA excluded volume interactions. Our findings demonstrate that out-of-equilibrium reactions increase the size of the nucleoid and the number of ribosomes in this subcellular region. In addition, we show that nucleoid size is proportional to transcriptional activity. Our model reproduces the time-dependent change in nucleoid size observed in rifampicin treatment experiments, where the pool of polyribosomes is depleted. Furthermore, we find that these active processes are essential for complete sister chromosome separation and correct nucleoid positioning within the cell. Overall, our study reveals the effects of the central dogma processes on the internal organization and localization of bacterial nucleoids.

Chang, Mu-Hung [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collapse of the waiting time effect in a spin glass

Waiting time measurements are reported here for a bulk polycrystalline sample of the spin glass Cu 0.95 Mn 0.05 . We observe a suppression of aging as the glass temperature is approached from below. These results are interpreted in terms of a spin-glass correlation length approaching and reaching crystallite sizes. They provide a direct experimental connection between the correlation length scale and relaxation times in the spin-glass state. In particular, these measurements track the value of the dynamic critical exponent as the system transitions from the critical temperature regime to its low-temperature, quasistatic nonequilibrium phase.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ice Multiplication by Fragmentation during Quasi-Spherical Freezing of Raindrops: A Theoretical Investigation

Ice multiplication by fragmentation during collision–freezing of supercooled rain or drizzle is investigated. A zero-dimensional dynamical system describes the time evolution of number densities of supercooled drops and ice crystals in a mixed-phase cloud. The characteristic time scale for this collision–freezing ice fragmentation is controlled by the collision efficiency, the number of ice fragments per freezing event, and the available number concentration of supercooled drops. The rate of the process is proportional to the number of supercooled drops available. Thus, ice may multiply extensively, even when the fragmentation number per freezing event is relatively small. The ratio of total numbers of ice particles to those from the first ice, namely, the “ice-enhancement factor,” is controlled both by the number of fragments per freezing event and by the available number concentration of supercooled drops in a similar manner. Especially, when ice fragmentation by freezing of supercooled drops is considered in isolation, the number of originally existing supercooled drops multiplied by the fragmentation number per freezing event yields the eventual number of ice crystals. When supercooled drops are continuously generated by coalescence, ice crystals from freezing fragmentation also continuously increase asymptotically at a rate equal to the generation rate of supercooled drops multiplied by the fragmentation number per freezing event. All these results are expressed by simple analytical forms, thanks to the simplicity of the theoretical model. These parameters can practically be used as a means for characterizing observed mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article - Fiscal Year 2023 (Final Report)

The Thermal Hydraulic Experimental Test Article (THETA) is a facility that is used to develop sodium components and instrumentation as well as acquire experimental data for validation of reactor thermal hydraulic and safety analysis codes. The facility simulates nominal conditions as well as protected/unprotected loss of flow accidents in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). High fidelity distributed temperature profiles of the developed flow field may be acquired with Rayleigh backscatter based optical fiber temperature sensors. The facility was designed in partnership with systems code experts to tailor the experiment to ensure the most relevant and highest quality data for code validation. THETA is comprised of a traditional primary coolant and secondary coolant system. The primary system is submerged in the pool of sodium and consists of a pump, electrically heated core, intermediate heat exchanger, and connected piping and thermal barriers (redan). The secondary system, located outside of the sodium pool, consists of a pump, sodium to air heat exchanger, and connected piping and valves. To date a test matrix has been completed utilizing the primary system of THETA. These tests, along with computational fluid dynamics and systems code models, determined the heat transfer across the core barrel and intermediate heat exchanger outlet was too great to effectively represent scaled thermal hydraulic phenomena of a liquid metal cooled reactor. Therefore, a significant effort was made to remove the primary system from the METL 28” test vessel #4 and clean the residual sodium from the primary system to facilitate upgrades. Thermal insulation was then incorporated in the core barrel and intermediate heat exchanger outlets. The primary system was then replaced, and a series of tests were performed to assess the performance of the thermal insulation. With primary system testing and upgrades complete, the secondary system could then be brought online. The tube side of the shell-and-tube intermediate heat exchanger was installed onto the primary system flange to begin installing the secondary system. The support structure for the secondary system was then erected on the METL mezzanine alongside the THETA primary system to facilitate installation of the secondary system components (sodium-to-air heat exchanger, flowmeter and pump). The piping and expansion tank were welded into the secondary system. Non-destructive examination of the secondary system welds was completed in order to satisfy ASME B31.3 pipe code for class M process fluids. The heating system and insulation were then added to prepare the system to be filled with sodium. The ancillary electrical equipment was installed which included the pump control box, blower VFD, pipe heater control system, etc. The secondary system will be filled, and a test matrix will be completed in early FY2024.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

VA EDH Advanced Software Pipeline Framework Report: Enhancing Automation and Scalability

The VA Environmental Determinants of Health (EDH) Advanced Software Pipeline Framework is designed to enhance the efficiency, scalability, and security of geospatial data processing workflows. This framework integrates modern data orchestration and containerization technologies, including Prefect for workflow automation, Docker for containerization, and PostgreSQL/PostGIS for geospatial data storage and analysis. It ensures standardized, reproducible, and automated data processing, supporting VA objectives related to substance use risk assessment and recovery research. The pipeline addresses key scalability and performance challenges through horizontal and vertical scaling, high-performance computing (HPC) integration, parallel processing, task caching, and dynamic resource allocation. These optimizations improve throughput and reduce latency, allowing the system to efficiently manage large and complex datasets. Additionally, security and compliance measures—such as data encryption (SSL), Role-Based Access Control (RBAC), and adherence to GDPR and HIPAA standards—safeguard sensitive information throughout data transmission and storage. A key implementation of this framework includes the automation of shelter list geolocation workflows, ensuring that up-to-date data is readily available for VA decision-making. Lessons learned from this project include the transition from in-memory processing to incremental storage writes, improving resource management and reliability. Future enhancements aim to expand automation, integrate AI-driven anomaly detection, and incorporate high-performance computing resources. This framework provides a scalable, secure, and adaptable solution for managing geospatial datasets, reinforcing the VA’s ability to support clinical and strategic initiatives through data-driven decision-making.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limitations for Quantum Algorithms to Solve Turbulent and Chaotic Systems

We investigate the limitations of quantum computers for solving nonlinear dynamical systems. In particular, we tighten the worst-case bounds of the quantum Carleman linearisation (QCL) algorithm answering one of their open questions. We provide a further significant limitation for any quantum algorithm that aims to output a quantum state that approximates the normalized solution vector. Given a natural choice of coordinates for a dynamical system with one or more positive Lyapunov exponents and solutions that grow sub-exponentially, we prove that any such algorithm has complexity scaling at least exponentially in the integration time. As such, an efficient quantum algorithm for simulating chaotic systems or regimes is likely not possible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Coal and Biomass – Integration of Combustor Boiler and DCC

Utilities and grid operators worldwide are under significant pressure to incorporate intermittent renewable sources while strategizing on how to maintain the necessary stability and reliability of the grid. The development of a power plant which will be capable of flexible operation to meet the needs of the grid as more intermittent sources like wind and solar energy are incorporated is key to maintain the reliability of the grid. Through the use of innovative and cutting-edge technologies that improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, and being small compared to today's conventional utility-scale power plants, the modular Staged, Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) process envisioned by and under development at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL) has the potential to achieve these goals. Specifically, the process offers: 1) a modular plant design that allows for better operational flexibility; 2) the utilization of fuel-staging and pressurized oxy-combustion, resulting in smaller plant size, improved plant efficiency, and reduced costs for pollutant and CO2 removal compared to traditional power plants with post-combustion capture technology; and 3) the use of small modular boilers and pollutant removal units that can be constructed off-site leading to reduced capital costs for the plant. WUSTL is advancing the development of the critical components for the SPOC power plant, including the integrated combustor-boiler system and the direct contact cooler. To demonstrate the boiler convective section and to obtain critical data for commercial-scale pressurized boiler design, a simulated convective heat transfer boiler test section was designed and integrated with the combustor (radiant section). A direct contact cooler (DCC) was integrated with the combustor-boiler to demonstrate the dynamic operation of the integrated system and the performance of the DCC, including the efficiency for simultaneous removal of NOx and SOx. This talk will present an update on the evaluation of the critical components for system integration, including heat transfer data from the simulated boiler, scrubbing efficiency for the DCC under different operating conditions, and CFD modeling and validation for burner and boiler development.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗