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DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Parallel Plastic‐to‐X Pathways and Their Role in a Circular Economy for PET Bottles

Abstract The United States generates the most plastic waste of any country and is a top contributor to global plastic pollution. Multiple end‐of‐life strategies must be implemented to minimize environmental impacts and retain valuable plastic material, but it is challenging to compare options that generate products with different lifetimes and utilities. Herein, they present a material flow model equipped with consequential life cycle assessment, cost analysis, and a plastic circularity indicator that considers product quality and lifetime. The model is used to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, circularity, and cost of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle mechanical downcycling to lower‐quality resin, closed‐loop glycolysis to food‐grade PET, upcycling to glass fiber‐reinforced plastic, and conversion to non‐plastic products (electricity, oil) on a United States economy‐wide basis for the year 2020. A brute force algorithm suggests that a combination of 68% glycolysis, 11% mechanical recycling, 6% upcycling, 9% landfilling, and 5% incineration can minimize the cost and GHG emissions and maximize the circularity of the current PET economy. However, uncertainty around transportation distances, materials recovery facility efficiencies, and recycling yields can result in different “optimal” pathway mixes. This flexible framework enables informed decision‐making to move toward a cost‐ and environment‐conscious circular economy for plastic.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tailoring Molecular Space to Navigate Phase Complexity in Cs-Based Quasi-2D Perovskites via Gated-Gaussian-Driven High-Throughput Discovery

Cesium-based quasi-2D halide perovskites (HPs) offer promising functionalities and low-temperature manufacturability, suited to stable tandem photovoltaics. However, the chemical interplays between the molecular spacers and the inorganic building blocks during crystallization cause substantial phase complexities in the resulting matrices. To successfully optimize and implement the quasi-2D HP functionalities, a systematic understanding of spacer chemistry, along with the seamless navigation of the inherently discrete molecular space, is necessary. Herein, by utilizing high-throughput automated experimentation, the phase complexities in the molecular space of quasi-2D HPs are explored, thus identifying the chemical roles of the spacer cations on the synthesis and functionalities of the complex materials. Furthermore, a novel active machine learning algorithm leveraging a two-stage decision-making process, called gated Gaussian process Bayesian optimization is introduced, to navigate the discrete ternary chemical space defined with two distinctive spacer molecules. Through simultaneous optimization of photoluminescence intensity and stability that “tailors” the chemistry in the molecular space, a ternary-compositional quasi-2D HP film realizing excellent optoelectronic functionalities is demonstrated. Finally, this work not only provides a pathway for the rational and bespoke design of complex HP materials but also sets the stage for accelerated materials discovery in other multifunctional systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Smart connected worker edge platform for smart manufacturing: Part 1—Architecture and platform design

Abstract The challenge of sustainably producing goods and services for healthy living on a healthy planet requires simultaneous consideration of economic, societal, and environmental dimensions in manufacturing. Enabling technology for data driven manufacturing paradigms like Smart Manufacturing (a.k.a. Industry 4.0) serve as the technological backbone from which sustainable approaches to manufacturing can be implemented. Unfortunately, these technologies are typically associated with broader and deeper factory automation that is often too expensive and complex for the small and medium sized manufacturers (SMMs) that comprise the majority of manufacturing business in the USA and for whom their most valuable asset are the people whose jobs automation while replace. This paper describes an edge intelligent platform to integrate internet‐of‐things technologies with computing hardware, software, computational workflows for machine learning, and data ingestion, enabling SMMs to transition into smart manufacturing paradigms by leveraging the intelligence of their people. The platform leverages consumer grade electronics and sensors (affordable and portable), customized software with open source software packages (accessible), and existing communication network infrastructures (scalable). The software systems are implemented via Kubernetes orchestration of Docker containerization to ensure scalability and programmability. The platform is adaptive via computational workflow engines that produce information from data by processing with low‐cost edge computing devices while efficiently accessing resources of cloud servers as needed. The proposed edge platform connects workers to technological resources that provide computational intelligence (i.e., silicon‐based sensing and computation for data collection and contextualization) to enable decision making at the edge of advanced manufacturing.

Kim, Yoon G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring environmental and cost benefits of riparian buffers for drinking water production in a Midwest watershed

Here, this study focuses on the economic value and carbon benefits of riparian buffers in urban drinking water production. The impact of riparian buffers on the waterworks operation in the Raccoon River watershed was quantified using the following metrics: nitrate concentration, days of nitrate removal operation, material and energy cost (based on 17 years of historical records with a watershed model), regression, and cost analysis. The findings indicate that the presence of riparian buffers in agricultural land can substantially decrease nitrate concentration in the water intake of the waterworks during the crop-growing season: 19% in April, 9% in May, and 11% in June. These reductions mean less nitrate treatment of the plant intake flow: 23% in April, 12% in May, and 3% in June. These changes lead to significant resource savings: 425 metric tons of sodium chloride (NaCl), 147 810 kWh of electricity, 253 metric tons of powdered activated carbon, and 20.8 million liters of fresh water. The buffers would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 86.9 metric tons (CO 2 equivalent) in 17 years. The total cost saving was estimated at $\$$327 326, with the highest potential savings in May ($\$$215 100), followed by April ($\$$65 465), and June ($\$$46 761). When factoring in buffer installation, cropland loss, nitrate removal, and cost associated with buffer harvest for biofuel in an established biomass market, the benefit to the entire watershed community would be $\$$2.63 million annually. The results underscore the significant cost benefits and environmental benefits associated with cropland riparian buffers in a watershed community. The approach employed in this study holds promise for assessing riparian buffer benefits in other watersheds, contributes to an understanding of sustainable water management practices, and provides a basis for decision making in a wide range of agricultural regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Peanut allergy burden survey: Factors associated with health‐related quality of life in adolescents

Abstract Background Patients with peanut allergy (PA) experience significant burden of illness, which impacts health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), particularly in adolescence. There is a paucity of research evaluating drivers of HRQoL scores. Methods A prospective, online survey of adolescents with self‐reported, provider‐diagnosed PA completed from November 2018 to January 2019 was used to explore drivers of the real‐world impact of PA on HRQoL using the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL) and other measures. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify potential factors associated with PedsQL scores and to understand the level of association. Results A total of 102 adolescents were included. The final model included 10 variables: race, reported strict peanut avoidance, satisfaction with prophylaxis, moderate‐to‐severe reaction within the past 12 months, touching peanut as cause of most severe reaction, fear of reaction, age, gender, comorbidities, and daily life limitations. In total, three items were shown to be strong predictors of the PedsQL total score including cause of severe reaction was touching peanut (yes), level of agreement with avoiding peanut (completely agree), and satisfaction with prophylaxis (not very much/not at all). Conclusions There is substantial heterogeneity in the impact of the burden of PA on PedsQL scores across patients. This indicates the importance of shared and individualized decision making for PA management to optimize outcomes and improve HRQoL.

McCann, William A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating terrestrial scavenging ecology into contemporary wildlife conservation and management

Scavenging plays a vital role in maintaining ecosystem health and contributing to ecological functions; however, research in this sub-discipline of ecology is underutilized in developing and implementing wildlife conservation and management strategies. We provide an examination of the literature and recommend priorities for research where improved understanding of scavenging dynamics can facilitate the development and refinement of applied wildlife conservation and management strategies. Due to the application of scavenging research broadly within ecology, scavenging studies should be implemented for informing management decisions. In particular, a more direct link should be established between scavenging dynamics and applied management programs related to informing pharmaceutical delivery and population control through bait uptake for scavenging species, prevention of unintentional poisoning of nontarget scavenging species, the epidemiological role that scavenging species play in disease dynamics, estimating wildlife mortalities, nutrient transfer facilitated by scavenging activity, and conservation of imperiled facultative scavenging species. This commentary is intended to provide information on the paucity of data in scavenging research and present recommendations for further studies that can inform decisions in wildlife conservation and management. Additionally, we provide a framework for decision making when determining how to apply scavenging ecology research for management practices and policies. Due to the implications that scavenging species have on ecosystem health, and their overall global decline as a result of anthropic activities, it is imperative to advance studies in the field of scavenging ecology that can inform applied conservation and management programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Water Impacts on Interconnection-Scale Electricity System Planning

A growing literature emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change impacts into electricity system planning. Rising average temperatures can increase and shift electricity demand while reducing generator and transmission efficiency. Changes to water availability and quality can reduce the output of thermally cooled generators and hydropower. Electric power grids across the US and globally are undergoing transformational changes that present new opportunities and challenges to reliability assurance. However, electric utilities and system operators have limited internal capabilities to incorporate these effects into planning practices. This work addresses gaps in utility and system planner practices by integrating climate-water-electricity expertise from universities and U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratories with electricity system planners and stakeholders in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). Using a highly collaborative approach, global climate model data, high-resolution hydrology models, and long-term electric sector capacity expansion tools are employed to analyze a range of climate outcomes for future electricity scenarios aligned with recent WECC planning studies. Doing so allows WECC to expand its climate-agnostic planning assessments to consider how future temperature and precipitation patterns could influence generation and transmission planning. We explore how changes to climate-water conditions can affect power plant investment and operation, system economics, and environmental impacts, providing an expanded perspective on interconnection-wide decision making under climate uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards a Comprehensive Approach for Habitat Restoration in the Columbia Basin: Case Study in the Grande Ronde River

Abstract Despite immense resources directed towards habitat restoration, recovering fish populations remains a daunting and perplexing issue. In 2015, recommendations for a comprehensive approach to habitat restoration in the Columbia River basin were published in Fisheries, which included elements of landscape ecology and resilience, broad public support, governance for collaboration and integration, and capacity for learning and adaptation. Using the Grande Ronde River basin as a case study, we convened a working group consisting of local restoration practitioners, managers, and researchers involved in habitat restoration research, monitoring, and evaluation to assess progress towards meeting these recommendations. We concluded that partnerships and collaborations in governance have been formed and research using a landscape perspective has been integrated into decision making, but efforts would benefit from gaining broader public support, formalizing an adaptive management strategy, and defining objectives and indicators for biological and ecological diversity. Continued progress will require consistent policy and funding support from the broader region. We envision this self-assessment at the 5-year milestone would be helpful to other groups facing similar challenges.

White, Seth M. (ORCID:0000000349186865)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating the Role(s) of Human Actors in Complex System Design for Safety and Security

Traditional systems engineering demonstrates the importance of customer needs in scoping and defining design requirements; yet, in practice, other human stakeholders are often absent from early lifecycle phases. Human factors are often omitted in practice when evaluating and down-selecting design options due to constraints such as time, money, access to user populations, or difficulty in proving system robustness through the inclusion of human behaviors. Advances in systems engineering increasingly include non-technical influences into the design, deployment, operations, and maintenance of interacting components to achieve common performance objectives. Furthermore, such advances highlight the need to better account for the various roles of human actors to achieve desired performance outcomes in complex systems. Many of these efforts seek to infuse lessons and concepts from human factors (enhanced decision-making through Crew Resource Management), systems safety (Rasmussen's “drift toward danger”) and organization science (Giddens' recurrent human acts leading to emergent behaviors) into systems engineering to better understand how socio-technical interactions impact emergent system performance. Safety and security are examples of complex system performance outcomes that are directly impacted by varying roles of human actors. Using security performance of high consequence facilities as a representative use case, this article will outline the System Context Lenses to understand how to include various roles of human actors into systems engineering design. Several exemplar applications of this organizing lenses will be summarized and used to highlight more generalized insights for the broader systems engineering community.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Governance and Resilience: A Holistic Approach to Systems Security in Complex and Chaotic Environments

Here, a systems governance approach emphasizes a holistic perspective that identifies and navigates the interdependencies and conflicts between security and operational needs. Governance is defined as a collection of metasystems that provide the necessary constraints and processes to support, steer, adapt, transform, and sustain a system (Keating et al. 2022). Utilizing the Cynefin framework, which distinguishes between simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic environments (Snowden and Boone 2007), the article highlights the challenges faced by nuclear power plants in predatory contexts and the importance of integrating security objectives into governance frameworks. By incorporating security as a fundamental aspect of governance, the article underscores its significance for persistence, adaptation, and transformation in the face of uncertainty. Additionally, it introduces key heuristics of systems security, such as the importance of context, knowledge‐based decision‐making, and organization‐specific sociological factors (Williams and Caskey 2024). Ultimately, this work provides valuable insights into enhancing resilient operations in complex environments by reinforcing the connection between effective governance and security in systems engineering.

Caskey, Susan A. [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗

DOE OSTI2021

A stochastic biomass blending problem in decentralized supply chains

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the thermochemical conversion process at the mini-mum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass quality. The proposed CCP model ensures that process requirements, which are impacted by physical and chemical properties of biomass, are met most of the time. We consider two problem settings, a centralized and a decentralized supply chain. We propose a mixed-integer linear program to model the blending problem in the centralized setting and a bilevel program to model the blending problem in the decentralized setting. We use the sample average approximation method to approximate the chance constraints, and propose solution algorithms to solve this approximation. We develop a case study for South Carolina using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. Based on our results, the blends identified consist mainly of pine and softwood residues. The blends identified and the suppliers selected by both models are different. The cost of the centralized supply chain is 2%–6% lower. The implications of these results are twofold. First, these results could lead to improved collaborations in the supply chain. Second, these results provide an estimate of the approximation error from assuming centralized decision making in the supply chain.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Survey on stochastic distribution systems: A full probability density function control theory with potential applications

Complex systems seen either in general engineering practice or economics are subjected to ever increased uncertainties that are mostly represented as random variables or parameters, and the characteristics of random variables are represented by their probability density functions (PDFs). Controlling their PDFs means to shape their stochastic distributions and in general it would provide a full treatment for system analysis and operational control and optimization. This leads to the development of stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems theory in the past decades, where the original aim of the controller design is to realize a shape control of the distributions of certain random variables in their PDFs sense for some engineering processes. Indeed, once the PDFs of these random variables or parameters are used to describe their distribution characters, the control task is to obtain control signals so that the output PDFs of stochastic systems are made to follow their target PDFs. The subject of SDC was initially originated for non-Gaussian stochastic control systems design but has found a wide spectrum of applications in general systems in terms of data-driven modeling, analysis, signal processing (filtering), data mining via multivariable statistics, decision-making (optimization) for systems subjected to uncertainties and even in economics. In this context, SDC constitutes an effective primer tool for complex system analysis, control and operational optimizations. In this review paper, a detailed survey of the developments on the research of SDC systems will be made together with their wide spectrum applications and future perspectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The ReSWARM microgravity flight experiments: Planning, control, and model estimation for on‐orbit close proximity operations

Abstract On‐orbit close proximity operations involve robotic spacecraft maneuvering and making decisions for a growing number of mission scenarios demanding autonomy, including on‐orbit assembly, repair, and astronaut assistance. Of these scenarios, on‐orbit assembly is an enabling technology that will allow large space structures to be built in situ, using smaller building block modules. However, like many of these scenarios, robotic on‐orbit assembly involves several technical hurdles, such as changing system models. For instance, grappled modules moved by a free‐flying “assembler” robot can cause significant changes in the combined system inertia, which have cascading impacts on motion planning and control portions of the autonomy stack. Further, on‐orbit assembly and other scenarios require collision‐avoiding motion planning, particularly when operating in a “construction site” scenario of multiple assembler robots and structures. Multiple key technologies that address these complicating factors for autonomous microgravity close proximity operations are detailed in this work, in particular: (1) application of global long‐horizon planning, accomplished using offline and online sampling‐based planner options that consider the system dynamics; (2) adaptation of the recently proposed RATTLE information‐aware planning framework for on‐orbit reconfiguration model learning; and (3) connection with robust control tools to provide low‐level control robustness using current system knowledge. These approaches were demonstrated for an autonomous on‐orbit assembly use case by the RElative Satellite sWarming and Robotic Maneuvering (ReSWARM) experiments using NASA's Astrobee robots on the International Space Station. Results of the ReSWARM experiments are provided along with significant operational and implementation detail discussing the practicalities of hardware implementation and unique aspects of working with the Astrobee free‐flyer robots in microgravity. ReSWARM provides a base set of planning and control tools for robotic close proximity operations, demonstrates them in microgravity, and outlines some of the important hardware aspects that future autonomous free‐flyers will need to consider.

Robotics↗

DOE OSTI2024

AEcroscopy: A Software–Hardware Framework Empowering Microscopy Toward Automated and Autonomous Experimentation

Microscopy has been pivotal in improving the understanding of structure-function relationships at the nanoscale and is by now ubiquitous in most characterization labs. However, traditional microscopy operations are still limited largely by a human-centric click-and-go paradigm utilizing vendor-provided software, which limits the scope, utility, efficiency, effectiveness, and at times reproducibility of microscopy experiments. Here, in this work, a coupled software–hardware platform is developed that consists of a software package termed AEcroscopy (short for Automated Experiments in Microscopy), along with a field-programmable-gate-array device with LabView-built customized acquisition scripts, which overcome these limitations and provide the necessary abstractions toward full automation of microscopy platforms. The platform works across multiple vendor devices on scanning probe microscopes and electron microscopes. It enables customized scan trajectories, processing functions that can be triggered locally or remotely on processing servers, user-defined excitation waveforms, standardization of data models, and completely seamless operation through simple Python commands to enable a plethora of microscopy experiments to be performed in a reproducible, automated manner. This platform can be readily coupled with existing machine-learning libraries and simulations, to provide automated decision-making and active theory-experiment optimization to turn microscopes from characterization tools to instruments capable of autonomous model refinement and physics discovery.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics as tools for bridging climate science and applications

In climate science and applications, the term “metric” is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are “fit for purpose.” Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co-production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. Here, this paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Weather radar in Nepal: opportunities and challenges in a mountainous region

Extreme rainfall is one of the major causes of natural hazards in the central Himalayan region, including Nepal. The performance of strategies to manage hazards and related risks relies on the accuracy of quantitative hydrometeorological prediction. Rain gauges have traditionally been used to measure the rainfall amount. However, point measurements with limited gauge coverage cannot accurately represent spatial precipitation variability in complex topography. Weather radar have shown potential for useful information on accurate areal rainfall estimates. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in Nepal installed their first weather radar in 2019 in the western region of the country. Two more radars will be added to the planned radar network in the near future, in the country's central and eastern regions, respectively. We highlight both the opportunities and challenges with radar installation and observation in the mountainous regions. Radar-rainfall estimates across the Himalayas can be useful to inform decision-making in a broad range of infrastructure sectors, including water, energy, construction, transportation, and agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗