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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0-15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 10 7 M⊙ and/or M 1500 < -17 out to at least z ~ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. Additionally, the faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 10 7 M⊙ or M 1500 > -17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M 1500 = -17 down to M 1500 = -12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ~ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Redox Potentials for Hydrogen Species in Acetonitrile and Tetrahydrofuran

The properties of the fundamental hydrogen species, proton (H+), hydrogen atom (H•), and hydride anion (H-) are critical to a vast range of chemical processes, yet their thermodynamic properties in nonaqueous solvents are not well established. A hybrid supermolecule-continuum approach is used to predict the Gibbs free energies of solvation (?G°solv) and standard redox potentials (E°) for the 2H+/H2 and H•/H- couples in acetonitrile (MeCN) and tetrahydrofuran (THF) following the approach previously used for water. Gas phase geometry optimizations were done using density functional theory (DFT) with the ?B97XD functional, Møller-Plesset second-order perturbation theory (MP2) with augmented correlation-consistent basis sets and composite-correlated molecular orbital theory (G3MP2 and G3MP2B3). Additional single point calculations in gas phase were performed for H- affinity for MeCN and THF at the coupled cluster CCSD(T) level using MP2 geometries. Solvation was included using the self-consistent reaction field SMD model. For H+, the ?G°solv values are predicted to be -252.2 kcal/mol in MeCN and -261.0 kcal/mol in THF. The redox potentials for the 2H+/H2 couple are +0.49 V in MeCN and +0.11 V in THF relative to the aqueous SHE, consistent with the available experimental data. The ?G°solv for H- is predicted to be -80 kcal/mol in MeCN and -68 in THF, and for H•, ?G°solv is predicted to be -1.3 kcal/mol in THF and -2.0 kcal/mol in MeCN. These solvation energies yield respective calculated redox potentials for the H•/H- couple of -0.14 V in MeCN and -0.68 V in THF relative to the aqueous SHE. H2 solvation is slightly exergonic in MeCN (-3.3 kcal/mol) and near thermoneutral in THF (+1.3 kcal/mol). The pKa(H2) is predicted to be 45.4 in MeCN and 47.8 in THF. The proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) accounting term CG was evaluated giving values on the ferrocene scale within approximately 2 kcal/mol of literature in both solvents. These results provide benchmarks for hydrogen redox chemistry in MeCN and THF and improve consistency across E°, ?G°solv, pKa, and CG. These results provide benchmarks for hydrogen redox chemistry in nonaqueous media challenging previous estimates based on indirect extrapolations and assumptions.

Duda, Damian P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recommendations for an Applicant to Calculate Activity Data for Greenhouse Gases Estimates

In 2009, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to address climate change issues and consider the impacts of the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) in its environmental reviews for major licensing actions (NRC 2009b). To implement this direction from the Commission, the staff issued guidance in 2011 and updated guidance in 2014 in Attachment 1 to Interim Staff Guidance COL/ESP-ISG-026 (NRC 2011; NRC 2014). This guidance provides a simpler method than the method described in RG 4.2 Rev. 3, that an applicant can use to meet the plant parameter envelope (PPE) value from the Generic Environmental Impact Statement for Licensing of New Nuclear Reactors (NR GEIS). NRC staff estimated the 97-year lifecycle GHG emissions from a reference 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) light-water reactor (LWR) for various activities associated with construction, operation (including uranium fuel cycle), and decommissioning of nuclear power plants and presented the results in Appendix H of the NR GEIS. Appendix H of the NR GEIS includes estimates of direct emissions from construction equipment and emergency diesel engines in a nuclear facility and indirect emissions from workforce vehicular traffic, fuel transportation and the uranium fuel cycle. The NR GEIS Section 3.3 extended the estimates in Appendix H for the installation of two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors on the same site. Scaling factors were used to extrapolate the GHG emissions of a reference 1000 MWe reactor to a two-unit nuclear reactor plant (each reactor unit generating 1000 MWe). GHG emission estimates for building, operation, decommissioning and safe storage (SAFSTOR) for a two-unit nuclear reactor plant would be based on the plant’s physical size, and therefore estimates for these source categories were assumed to be twice the value of the reference 1000 MWe reactor. However, GHG emissions from the fuel cycle (including fuel transportation) were scaled upward by a factor of 3, based on plant efficiencies greater than the 80 percent assumption in Appendix H. Table 1 below shows the PPE emissions for two 1000 MWe nuclear reactors as provided in NR GEIS. The total GHG emissions for two 1000 MWe reactors were calculated as 2,534,000 metric tons (MT) of CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 (e)) based on a 97 year GHG life cycle period. The GHG emissions lifetime of 97 years for a reference nuclear reactor includes a 7-year building phase, 40 years of operation, 10 years of active decommissioning, and 40 years of SAFSTOR operations (NRC 2024). Construction equipment and vehicular traffic from workers commute would contribute to the GHG emissions during a 7-year building phase. Uranium fuel cycle, vehicular traffic, fuel and waste transportation, and testing of standby diesel generators would contribute to GHG emissions during the 40-year operations phase. While NRC’s regulations allow up to 60 years of reactor facility decommissioning, Appendix H estimated that most of the GHGs would occur over an estimated 10-year period during which to the licensee would engage in significant demolition and earth-moving activities, as discussed in Supplement 1 to NUREG-0586 (NRC 2002). Vehicular traffic by the workforce during a 40-year SAFSTOR period would additionally contribute GHG emissions. The carbon footprint for a 40-year SAFSTOR period was separately analyzed from the decommissioning activities as provided in Table YYYY-2 of the staff issued guidance in 2011 (NRC 2011).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing Intra-Halo Light with Galaxy Stacking in CIBER Images

We study the stellar halos of 0.2 ≲ $z$ ≲ 0.5 galaxies with stellar masses spanning $M$* ~ 10 10.5 to 10 12 $M$ ⊙ (approximately $L$* galaxies at this redshift) using imaging data from the Cosmic Infrared Background Experiment (CIBER). A previous CIBER fluctuation analysis suggested that intra-halo light (IHL) contributes a significant portion of the near-infrared extragalactic background light (EBL), the integrated emission from all sources throughout cosmic history. In this work, we carry out a stacking analysis with a sample of ~30,000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometric galaxies from CIBER images in two near-infrared bands (1.1 and 1.8 $μ$m) to directly probe the IHL associated with these galaxies. We stack galaxies in five sub-samples split by brightness and detect an extended galaxy profile beyond the instrument point-spread function (PSF) derived by stacking stars. We jointly fit a model for the inherent galaxy light profile plus large-scale one- and two-halo clustering to measure the extended galaxy IHL. We detect nonlinear one-halo clustering in the 1.8 $μ$m band at a level consistent with numerical simulations. Furthermore, by extrapolating the fraction of extended galaxy light, we measure to all galaxy mass scales, we find ~30%/15% of the total galaxy light budget from galaxies is at radius $r$ > 10/20 kpc, respectively. These results are new at near-infrared wavelengths at the $L$* mass scale and suggest that the IHL emission and one-halo clustering could have appreciable contributions to the amplitude of large-scale EBL background fluctuations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase Transitions and Thermal Equation of State of Fe‐9wt.%Si Applied to the Moon and Mercury

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the phase transitions and thermoelastic properties of candidate iron alloys, such as Fe‐Si alloys, is essential for understanding the nature and dynamics of planetary cores. The phase diagrams of some Fe‐Si alloys between 1 atm and 16 GPa have been back‐extrapolated from higher pressures, but the resulting phase diagram of Fe 83.6 Si 16.4 (9 wt.% Si) is inconsistent with temperature‐induced changes in its electrical resistivity between 6 and 8 GPa. This study reports in situ synchrotron X‐ray diffraction (XRD) measurements on pre‐melted and powder Fe 83.6 Si 16.4 samples from ambient conditions to 60 GPa and 900 K using an externally heated diamond‐anvil cell. Upon compression at 300 K, the bcc phase persisted up to ∼38 GPa. The hcp phase appeared near 8 GPa in the pre‐melted sample, and near 17 GPa in the powder sample. The appearance of the hcp phase in the pre‐melted sample reconciles the reported changes in electrical resistivity of a similar sample, thus resolving the low‐pressure region of the phase diagram. The resulting high‐temperature Birch‐Murnaghan equation of state (EoS) and thermal EoS based on the Mie‐Gruneisen‐Debye model of the bcc and hcp structures are consistent with, and complement the literature data at higher pressures. The calculated densities based on the thermal EoS of Fe‐9wt.%Si indicate that both bcc and hcp phases agree with the reported core density estimates for the Moon and Mercury.

Berrada, Meryem↗
DOE OSTI2025

New state of matter between the hadronic phase and the quark-gluon plasma?

Lattice-quantum chromodynamics (QCD) simulations and theoretical arguments hint at the existence of an intermediate phase of strongly interacting matter between a confined hadron gas and a deconfined quark-gluon plasma (QGP). We qualitatively and semiquantitatively explore and differentiate the phase structures in the temperature window from the QCD pseudocritical temperature 𝑇 c ≃ 160 MeV to the pure gluonic deconfinement temperature 𝑇 d ≃ 285 MeV. We propose a three-regime picture using a hadron resonance gas description augmented with the exponential spectrum of strings, corresponding to highly excited mesons and glueballs, based on the analysis of a large number 𝑁 c of colors. We estimate the entropy density from our model to confirm that the lattice-QCD data are bracketed with three regimes, i.e., a hadron gas, a QGP, and a new phase for 𝑇 c ≲ 𝑇 ≲ 𝑇 d . In this new phase, which we name a spaghetti of quarks with glueballs (SQGBs), thermal degrees of freedom of quarks are liberated, yet gluons remain confined in glueballs. Since the Hagedorn temperature 𝑇 H ∼ 285 MeV is universal in the meson and the glueball sectors, in the infinite-𝑁 c limit, the phase diagram in the plane of the baryon chemical potential and the temperature is reduced to one with the confined and deconfined phases and quarkyonic matter at high density. At large but finite 𝑁 c , an SQGB window may open between these phases. We point out that the SQGB has interesting similarities with quarkyonic matter and that this matter in the large-𝑁 c limit is confined as measured by the interaction between heavy quarks, but behaves in other respects like a quasifree gas of quarks. As a result of the extrapolation to 𝑁 c = 3, we present a revised phase diagram with the SQGB phase bounded by thermal crossovers. Finally, we give a quantitative analysis of chiral-symmetry restoration in the SQGB phase.

Color confinement↗
DOE OSTI2022

MEGASIM: Lifetimes and Resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids—The Death of Primordial ETAs?

Abstract We present an analysis of lifetimes and resonances of Earth Trojan Asteroids (ETAs) in the MEGASIM data set. Trojan asteroids co-orbit the Sun with a planet, but remain bound to the Lagrange points, L4 (60° leading the planet) or L5 (60° trailing). In the circular three-body approximation, the stability of a Trojan asteroid depends on the ratio of the host planet mass and the central mass. For the inner planets, the range of stability becomes increasingly small, so perturbations from the planets have made primordial Trojans rare. To date, there have been just two ETAs (2010 TK 7 and 2020 XL 5 ), several Mars Trojans, and a Venus Trojan discovered. The estimated lifetimes of the known inner system Trojans are shorter than a million years, suggesting they are interlopers rather than members of a stable and long-lasting population. With the largest ETA n -body simulation to date, we are able to track their survival across a wide initialized parameter space. We find that the remaining fraction of ETAs over time is well fit with a stretched exponential function that, when extrapolated beyond our simulation run time, predicts zero ETAs by 2.33 Gyr. We also show correlations between ETA ejections and the periods of the Milankovitch cycles. Though Earth’s orbital dynamics dominate the instabilities of ETAs, we provide evidence that ETA ejections are linked to resonances found in the variation of the orbital elements of many if not all of the planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deriving cloud droplet number concentration from surface-based remote sensors with an emphasis on lidar measurements

Abstract. Given the importance of constraining cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) in low-level clouds, we explore two methods for retrieving Nd from surface-based remote sensing that emphasize the information content in lidar measurements. Because Nd is the zeroth moment of the droplet size distribution (DSD), and all remote sensing approaches respond to DSD moments that are at least 2 orders of magnitude greater than the zeroth moment, deriving Nd from remote sensing measurements has significant uncertainty. At minimum, such algorithms require the extrapolation of information from two other measurements that respond to different moments of the DSD. Lidar, for instance, is sensitive to the second moment (cross-sectional area) of the DSD, while other measures from microwave sensors respond to higher-order moments. We develop methods using a simple lidar forward model that demonstrates that the depth to the maximum in lidar-attenuated backscatter (Rmax⁡) is strongly sensitive to Nd when some measure of the liquid water content vertical profile is given or assumed. Knowledge of Rmax⁡ to within 5 m can constrain Nd to within several tens of percent. However, operational lidar networks provide vertical resolutions of > 15 m, making a direct calculation of Nd from Rmax⁡ very uncertain. Therefore, we develop a Bayesian optimal estimation algorithm that brings additional information to the inversion such as lidar-derived extinction and radar reflectivity near the cloud top. This statistical approach provides reasonable characterizations of Nd and effective radius (re) to within approximately a factor of 2 and 30 %, respectively. By comparing surface-derived cloud properties with MODIS satellite and aircraft data collected during the MARCUS and CAPRICORN II campaigns, we demonstrate the utility of the methodology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generating high-resolution total canopy SIF emission from TROPOMI data: Algorithm and application

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a rapidly advancing front in modeling global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). Canopy total SIF emissions (SIF total ) are mechanistically linked to the plant photosynthesis, and can be estimated from satellite observed SIF (SIF obs ) through radiative transfer modeling. However, the current satellite SIF obs and thus SIF total are available only at coarse spatial resolutions from several kilometers to tens of kilometers, inhibiting the application at fine spatial scales. Here, in this work, we proposed an algorithm to generate both global high-resolution SIF total (HSIF total ) and high-resolution SIF obs (HSIF obs ) at 1 km from low-resolution SIF obs (LSIF obs ) from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), which has a spatial resolution at nadir of 3.5 km by 5.6–7 km. Our statistical method is based on the law of energy conservation and uses satellite derived fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, fluorescence efficiency, and the escape probability of fluorescence. We evaluated the accuracy of our HSIF total using the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 SIF (R 2 = 0.78). We found that the spatial resolution had clear effects on the relationship between HSIF total and GPP. We also compared HSIF total to 8-day averaged tower GPP from 135 flux sites and found that they were better correlated when HSIF total was averaged over a 1-km radius around the tower than when averaged over a larger radius. Our study provided a unique high-resolution HSIF total product, which will advance the estimation of GPP by extrapolating site-level relationships to the global scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Performance of Refractory Liners for Molten Chloride Salt Thermal Energy Storage Systems

A chloride-based molten-salt system that uses a ternary blend of MgCl2/KCl/NaCl is investigated to provide higher temperature thermal energy storage capability. Despite higher thermal stability, molten chlorides present several unique challenges, including the design of internal refractory-ceramic liners to prevent the corrosion and thermal stress of alloy tank shells. This work discusses issues and potential solutions related to containment of molten chloride salt, specifically the optimization of the refractory material at the molten salt interface (hot face). The down-selected hot face candidate limits permeation of salt through the material and forms a highly stable secondary surface phase in equilibrium with the molten salt. A mortar is created using the corrosion resistant hot face brick. Brick and mortar composite are subjected to mechanical stress/strain analysis, in order to calculate composite material properties and better inform thermomechanical models. The U.S. Department of Energy Generation 3 (DOE Gen3) program seeks to develop higher efficiency CSP plants that can provide cost-competitive, flexible power in the U.S. electric grid. The proposed Gen3 Liquid Pathway CSP plant closely resembles the configuration of current nitrate salt power towers with two-tank storage (Gen2). The differences between Gen2 and Gen3 include the types of compatible materials used in salt storage tank construction. Stainless steel loses strength at Gen3 temperatures, and although nickel superalloys would be capable of withstanding sustained high temperatures, these materials are prohibitively expensive at scale. Uninsulated tank shells also pose a significant risk as common steels are highly susceptible to chemical attack from molten chloride salt. To address these concerns, refractory-ceramic based containment materials are proposed to line the inside of the hot and cold storage tanks. In doing so, stainless or carbon steel shells may be used in construction depending on the level of insulation provided. The composition of the internal liner requires careful consideration to maximize the efficacy of multiple parameters including corrosion resistance, strength at operating temperature, durability, and cost. This is particularly true for the material at the interface with the salt, known as the "hot face", which is responsible for protecting the insulating layers between the tank shell and the hot face brick layer. The molten salt in this system is superheated over 300 °C above its freeze temperature. Therefore, unlike other industrial processes which use refractory-lined vessels, it is not expected that a freeze plane will develop in the hot face. Therefore, the hot face must be designed to withstand chemical corrosion and inhibit permeation of molten salt into the insulating layers. A down selection was performed to identify a hot face candidate best equipped to maintain thermal, mechanical, and chemical integrity when exposed to molten salt over extended periods of time. Long-duration chemical capability experiments were conducted with the down selected hot face refractory fully immersed in molten chloride salt for up to 3000 hours. The average salt penetration does not exceed 100 microns. When extrapolated to 20 and 30 years of continuous exposure, the expected salt penetration depth is approximately 2.0 mm and 2.9 mm, respectively. A magnesium-rich secondary phases develops at the salt/refractory interface. X-ray diffraction identifies the material as forsterite (Mg2SiO4), which is reported to form synthetically in molten chloride salt solutions. These results suggest the selected hot face will adequately inhibit salt permeation. While there is optimism that the hot face brick will inhibit salt permeation, mortar joints are typically the weakest point of a refractory brick liner. From a thermochemical perspective, differing thermal expansion coefficients may result in the mortar and brick to grow independent of each other, creating gaps through which molten salt can penetrate. To address this issue, NREL has developed an in-house mortar composed of the down selected hot face brick that has been shown to be compatible with the salt. Compressive stress/strain analyses have been performed on the brick/ mortar composites to generate stress/strain curves. Modulus of elasticity and Poisson's ratio of the composite may be calculated from the stress/strain curves, in order to provide more representative data to finite element mechanical models for accurate approximation of stress on the tank shell and the amount of thermal expansion expected within the tank liner.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the contamination of the DES-Y1 cluster sample with SPT-SZ selected clusters

ABSTRACT We perform a cross validation of the cluster catalogue selected by the red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation algorithm (redMaPPer) in Dark Energy Survey year 1 (DES-Y1) data by matching it with the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect (SZE) selected cluster catalogue from the South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. Of the 1005 redMaPPer selected clusters with measured richness $\hat{\lambda }\gt 40$ in the joint footprint, 207 are confirmed by SPT-SZ. Using the mass information from the SZE signal, we calibrate the richness–mass relation using a Bayesian cluster population model. We find a mass trend λ ∝ MB consistent with a linear relation (B ∼ 1), no significant redshift evolution and an intrinsic scatter in richness of σλ = 0.22 ± 0.06. By considering two error models, we explore the impact of projection effects on the richness–mass modelling, confirming that such effects are not detectable at the current level of systematic uncertainties. At low richness SPT-SZ confirms fewer redMaPPer clusters than expected. We interpret this richness dependent deficit in confirmed systems as due to the increased presence at low richness of low-mass objects not correctly accounted for by our richness-mass scatter model, which we call contaminants. At a richness $\hat{\lambda }=40$, this population makes up ${\gt}12{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile) of the total population. Extrapolating this to a measured richness $\hat{\lambda }=20$ yields ${\gt}22{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile). With these contamination fractions, the predicted redMaPPer number counts in different plausible cosmologies are compatible with the measured abundance. The presence of such a population is also a plausible explanation for the different mass trends (B ∼ 0.75) obtained from mass calibration using purely optically selected clusters. The mean mass from stacked weak lensing (WL) measurements suggests that these low-mass contaminants are galaxy groups with masses ∼3–5 × 1013 M⊙ which are beyond the sensitivity of current SZE and X-ray surveys but a natural target for SPT-3G and eROSITA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel application of neutrinos to evaluate U.S. nuclear weapons performance

There is a growing realization that neutrinos can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the inner workings of a nuclear weapon. Robust estimates demonstrate that an Inverse Beta Decay (IBD) neutrino scintillation detector built at the Nevada Test Site with a 1000-ton active target mass at a standoff distance of 500 m would detect thousands of antineutrino events per nuclear test. This would provide less than 4% statistical error on the measured antineutrino rate and 5% error on antineutrino energy. Extrapolating this to an error on the test device explosive yield requires knowledge from evaluated nuclear databases, non-equilibrium fission rates, and assumptions on internal neutron fluxes. Initial calculations demonstrate that the total number of neutrinos emitted per fission in the first 10 3 s after a short pulse of 239 Pu fission is about a factor of two less than that from Pu fissioning under steady state conditions. Furthermore, there are significant energy spectral differences as a function of time after the pulse that must be considered. These and other model dependencies will be discussed in the paper. In the absence of nuclear weapons testing, many of the technical and theoretical challenges of a full nuclear test could be mitigated with a low cost smaller scale 20 ton fiducial mass IBD demonstration detector placed near a pulsed reactor. Potential reactors include the Texas A&M University TRIGA 1 GW–10 ms pulsed facility or the Sandia Annular Core Research Reactor. The short duty cycle and repeatability of pulses would provide critical real environment testing and measurements, which would be valuable for planning a possible real test shot in the future. Furthermore, the antineutrino rate as a function of time data would provide unique constraints on fission databases and model assumptions. Finally, there are impactful science drivers such as sensitive searches for ∼1 eV 2 sterile neutrinos and ∼MeV scale axions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Remark on Algorithm 1012: Computing Projections with Large Datasets

In ACM TOMS Algorithm 1012, the DELAUNAYSPARSE software is given for performing Delaunay interpolation in medium to high dimensions. When extrapolating outside the convex hull of the training set, DELAUNAYSPARSE calls the nonnegative least squares solver DWNNLS to compute projections onto the convex hull. However, DWNNLS and many other available sum-of-squares optimization solvers were not intended for usage with many variable problems, which result from the large training sets that are typical in machine learning applications. Thus, a new PROJECT subroutine is given, based on the highly customizable quadratic program solver BQPD. This solution is shown to be as robust as DELAUNAYSPARSE for projection onto both synthetic and real-world datasets, where other available solvers frequently fail. Although it is intended as an update for DELAUNAYSPARSE, due to the difficulty and prevalence of the problem, this solution is likely to be of external interest as well.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗