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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 595 records · Page 33
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Partner with a Third-Party Delivery Service or Not? A Prediction-and-Decision Tool for Restaurants Facing Takeout Demand Surges During a Pandemic

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

The History of a Decision: A Standard Vibration Test Method for Qualification

As Mil-Std-810G and subsequent versions have included multiple degree of freedom vibration test methodologies, it is important to understand the history and factors that drove the original decision in Mil-Std-810 to focus on single degree of freedom (SDOF) vibration testing. By assessing the factors and thought process of early Mil-Std-810 vibration test methods, it enables one to better consider the use of multiple degree of freedom testing now that it is feasible with today’s technology and documented in Mil-Std-810. This paper delves into the details of the decision made in the 1960s for the SDOF vibration testing standards in Mil-Std-810 beyond the limitations of technology at the time. We also consider the implications for effective test planning today considering the advances in test capabilities and improvements in understanding of the operational environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Sustainable Approach to Decision-Making in CCUS Systems

This study proposes a methodology for operational decision-making leading to the sustainability CO 2 -EOR systems. The methodology is a simple, yet comprehensive, integration of environmental and economic carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) performance. Understanding the interplay between the environmental and economic conditions allows the EOR operator to manage the CO 2 -EOR flood so it remains within the limits of carbon balance neutrality and favorable economics under given prices and costs. The environmental performance and the main operational inputs (fluid production, CO 2 injection, and purchase requirements) were taken from a dynamic carbon Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study previously performed for a CO 2 -EOR site in Cranfield, Mississippi. The LCA study accounts for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions within a gate-to-grave CCUS system boundary, considering four different CO 2 injection strategies and four gas separation processes. The economic performance assessment was made through a marginalist analysis (Marginalist Production Theory), which determines important technical and economic relations through basic differential calculus derived from production, cost, and income functions. This method allows to define the operational economic optimum (optimum profit). The assessment considers four CO 2 price scenarios and uses World Bank estimated oil prices. In a first step of the proposed methodology, environmental limits of the operation are estimated. These limits are then compared with operative maximum productivity as well as with the economic optimum. According to the methodology, the EOR operation is sustainable as long as the environmental optimum is greater, or lasts longer, than the economic optimum along the project’s life. Results show that for this operation and assumed parameters, CO 2 -EOR could be classified as a sustainable activity depending on the operator’s strategic decision-making. In the case study, all injection strategies reach the environmental optimum after maximum productivity is reached. As a result, only two strategies (continuous gas injection and water alternating gas) find their economic optimum within the environmental limits, fulfilling the defined necessary and sufficient condition for CCUS sustainability.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2013

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Engel, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Quick Start User’s Guide for the PATH/AWARE Decision Support System

The Prioritization Analysis Tool for All-Hazards/Analyzer for Wide Area Restoration Effectiveness (PATH/AWARE) software system, developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a comprehensive decision support tool designed to analyze situational awareness, as well as response and recovery actions, following a wide-area release of chemical, biological or radiological materials. The system provides capability to prioritize critical infrastructure assets and services for restoration. It also provides a capability to assess resource needs (e.g., number of sampling teams, laboratory capacity, decontamination units, etc.), timelines for consequence management activities, and costs. PATH/AWARE is a very comprehensive tool set with a considerable amount of database information managed through a Microsoft SQL (Structured Query Language) database engine, a Geographical Information System (GIS) engine that provides comprehensive mapping capabilities, as well as comprehensive decision logic to carry out the functional aspects of the tool set. This document covers the basic installation and operation of the PATH/AWARE tool in order to give the user enough information to start using the tool. A companion user's manual is under development with greater specificity of the PATH/AWARE functionality.

Knowlton, Robert G.↗
DOE OSTI2013

RE-ASSUME: A Decision Maker's Guide to Evaluating Energy Scenarios, Modeling, and Assumptions

The desire for a “crystal ball” to peer into the future has perhaps never been stronger among energy and environmental planners. While the future has always been uncertain, the interconnectedness of modern economic systems serves to enhance the ripple effect of our energy actions. Today's decisions also seem to be made under heightened uncertainty, as demonstrated by the number of recent unexpected events, such as a prolonged economic recession, an unfolding shale energy revolution, the Fukushima disaster, the Arab Spring, and a notable reduction in photovoltaic costs. Policymakers have historically relied on energy scenarios and modeling to help inform decision making. While there exists a wealth of advanced model, data, and energy scenario options, important questions remain about how to effectively apply these tools to help plan for an uncertain future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2013

Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 105: Area 2 Yucca Flat Atmospheric Test Sites, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

This Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report presents information supporting the closure of Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 105: Area 2 Yucca Flat Atmospheric Test Sites, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada. CAU 105 comprises the following five corrective action sites (CASs): -02-23-04 Atmospheric Test Site - Whitney Closure In Place -02-23-05 Atmospheric Test Site T-2A Closure In Place -02-23-06 Atmospheric Test Site T-2B Clean Closure -02-23-08 Atmospheric Test Site T-2 Closure In Place -02-23-09 Atmospheric Test Site - Turk Closure In Place. The purpose of this Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 105 based on the implementation of the corrective actions. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from October 22, 2012, through May 23, 2013, as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 105: Area 2 Yucca Flat Atmospheric Test Sites; and in accordance with the Soils Activity Quality Assurance Plan, which establishes requirements, technical planning, and general quality practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 567: Miscellaneous Soil Sites - Nevada National Security Site, Nevada with ROTC 1

This Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report presents information supporting the closure of Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 567: Miscellaneous Soil Sites, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada. The purpose of this Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report is to provide justification and documentation supporting the recommendation that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 567 based on the implementation of the corrective actions. The corrective actions implemented at CAU 567 were developed based on an evaluation of analytical data from the CAI, the assumed presence of COCs at specific locations, and the detailed and comparative analysis of the CAAs. The CAAs were selected on technical merit focusing on performance, reliability, feasibility, safety, and cost. The implemented corrective actions meet all requirements for the technical components evaluated. The CAAs meet all applicable federal and state regulations for closure of the site. Based on the implementation of these corrective actions, the DOE, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office provides the following recommendations: • No further corrective actions are necessary for CAU 567. • The Nevada Division of Environmental Protection issue a Notice of Completion to the DOE, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office for closure of CAU 567. • CAU 567 be moved from Appendix III to Appendix IV of the FFACO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 550: Smoky Contamination Area Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

This Corrective Action Decision Document/Closure Report presents information supporting the closure of Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 550: Smoky Contamination Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada. CAU 550 includes 19 corrective action sites (CASs), which consist of one weapons-related atmospheric test (Smoky), three safety experiments (Ceres, Oberon, Titania), and 15 debris sites (Table ES-1). The CASs were sorted into the following study groups based on release potential and technical similarities: • Study Group 1, Atmospheric Test • Study Group 2, Safety Experiments • Study Group 3, Washes • Study Group 4, Debris The purpose of this document is to provide justification and documentation supporting the conclusion that no further corrective action is needed for CAU 550 based on implementation of the corrective actions listed in Table ES-1. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed between August 2012 and October 2013 as set forth in the Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 550: Smoky Contamination Area; and in accordance with the Soils Activity Quality Assurance Plan. The approach for the CAI was to investigate and make data quality objective (DQO) decisions based on the types of releases present. The purpose of the CAI was to fulfill data needs as defined during the DQO process. The CAU 550 dataset of investigation results was evaluated based on a data quality assessment. This assessment demonstrated the dataset is complete and acceptable for use in fulfilling the DQO data needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 573: Alpha Contaminated Sites Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

CAU 573 comprises the following corrective action sites (CASs): • 05-23-02, GMX Alpha Contaminated Area • 05-45-01, Atmospheric Test Site - Hamilton These two CASs include the release at the Hamilton weapons-related tower test and a series of 29 atmospheric experiments conducted at GMX. The two CASs are located in two distinctly separate areas within Area 5. To facilitate site investigation and data quality objective (DQO) decisions, all identified releases (i.e., CAS components) were organized into study groups. The reporting of investigation results and the evaluation of DQO decisions are at the release level. The corrective action alternatives (CAAs) were evaluated at the FFACO CAS level. The purpose of this CADD/CAP is to evaluate potential CAAs, provide the rationale for the selection of recommended CAAs, and provide the plan for implementation of the recommended CAA for CAU 573. Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities were performed from January 2015 through November 2015, as set forth in the CAU 573 Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP). Analytes detected during the CAI were evaluated against appropriate final action levels (FALs) to identify the contaminants of concern. Assessment of the data generated from investigation activities conducted at CAU 573 revealed the following: • Radiological contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs (based on the Occasional Use Area exposure scenario). • Chemical contamination within CAU 573 does not exceed the FALs. • Potential source material—including lead plates, lead bricks, and lead-shielded cables—was removed during the investigation and requires no additional corrective action.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 413: Clean Slate II Plutonium Dispersion (TTR) Tonopah Test Range, Nevada. Revision 0

This Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan provides the rationale and supporting information for the selection and implementation of corrective actions at Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 413, Clean Slate II Plutonium Dispersion (TTR). CAU 413 is located on the Tonopah Test Range and includes one corrective action site, TA-23-02CS. CAU 413 consists of the release of radionuclides to the surface and shallow subsurface from the Clean Slate II (CSII) storage–transportation test conducted on May 31, 1963. The CSII test was a non-nuclear detonation of a nuclear device located inside a concrete bunker covered with 2 feet of soil. To facilitate site investigation and the evaluation of data quality objectives decisions, the releases at CAU 413 were divided into seven study groups: 1 Undisturbed Areas 2 Disturbed Areas 3 Sedimentation Areas 4 Former Staging Area 5 Buried Debris 6 Potential Source Material 7 Soil Mounds Corrective action investigation (CAI) activities, as set forth in the CAU 413 Corrective Action Investigation Plan, were performed from June 2015 through May 2016. Radionuclides detected in samples collected during the CAI were used to estimate total effective dose using the Construction Worker exposure scenario. Corrective action was required for areas where total effective dose exceeded, or was assumed to exceed, the radiological final action level (FAL) of 25 millirem per year. The results of the CAI and the assumptions made in the data quality objectives resulted in the following conclusions: The FAL is exceeded in surface soil in SG1, Undisturbed Areas; The FAL is assumed to be exceeded in SG5, Buried Debris, where contaminated debris and soil were buried after the CSII test; The FAL is not exceeded at SG2, SG3, SG4, SG6, or SG7. Because the FAL is exceeded at CAU 413, corrective action is required and corrective action alternatives (CAAs) must be evaluated. For CAU 413, three CAAs were evaluated: no further action, clean closure, and closure in place. The CAAs were evaluated on technical merit focusing on performance, reliability, feasibility, safety, and cost. Based on the evaluation of analytical data from the CAI, review of future and current operations at CAU 413, and the detailed and comparative analysis of CAAs, clean closure was selected as the preferred CAA for CAU 413 by the U.S. Air Force, Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, and U.S. Department of Energy at the CAA meeting held on August 24, 2016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 1

This corrective action decision document (CADD)/corrective action plan (CAP) has been prepared for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 97, Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), Nevada. The Yucca Flat/Climax Mine CAU is located in the northeastern portion of the NNSS and comprises 720 corrective action sites. A total of 747 underground nuclear detonations took place within this CAU between 1957 and 1992 and resulted in the release of radionuclides (RNs) in the subsurface in the vicinity of the test cavities. The CADD portion describes the Yucca Flat/Climax Mine CAU data-collection and modeling activities completed during the corrective action investigation (CAI) stage, presents the corrective action objectives, and describes the actions recommended to meet the objectives. The CAP portion describes the corrective action implementation plan. The CAP presents CAU regulatory boundary objectives and initial use-restriction boundaries identified and negotiated by DOE and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP). The CAP also presents the model evaluation process designed to build confidence that the groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling results can be used for the regulatory decisions required for CAU closure. The UGTA strategy assumes that active remediation of subsurface RN contamination is not feasible with current technology. As a result, the corrective action is based on a combination of characterization and modeling studies, monitoring, and institutional controls. The strategy is implemented through a four-stage approach that comprises the following: (1) corrective action investigation plan (CAIP), (2) CAI, (3) CADD/CAP, and (4) closure report (CR) stages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Decision Trees for Analysis of Strategies to Deter Limited Nuclear Use in a Generic Scenario

We assert that analysis of a decision tree model can reveal key insights for deterring limited nuclear use in a conventional conflict. To illustrate the method, we develop a decision analysis model to explore the choices an attacker would make and how they can be influenced by his perceptions of the defender’s capabilities and potential responses. Sensitivity analysis with the model can provide insights into strategies and actions the defender might take in order to influence the choices the attacker would make. This methodology is widely applicable and could provide insight into a variety of scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantifying Uncertainty to Improve Decision Making in Machine Learning

Data-driven modeling, including machine learning methods, continue to play an increasing role in society. Data-driven methods impact decision making for applications ranging from everyday determinations about which news people see and control of self-driving cars to high-consequence national security situations related to cyber security and analysis of nuclear weapons reliability. Although modern machine learning methods have made great strides in model induction and show excellent performance in a broad variety of complex domains, uncertainty remains an inherent aspect of any data-driven model. In this report, we provide an update to the preliminary results on uncertainty quantification for machine learning presented in SAND2017-6776. Specifically, we improve upon the general problem definition and expand upon the experiments conducted for the earlier re- port. Most importantly, we summarize key lessons learned about how and when uncertainty quantification can inform decision making and provide valuable insights into the quality of learned models and potential improvements to them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

DiaMonD: An Integrated Multifaceted Approach to Mathematics at the Interfaces of Data, Models, and Decisions

For many problems in computational science and engineering, the so-called forward problem—solution of the underlying mathematical model to yield output quantities of interest, given input parameters—is difficult enough for frontier complex models, which are often characterized by coupled multiphysics and possibly stochastic behavior over a wide range of length and time scales. However, we face the need to move beyond the forward problem, to address what is often the ultimate goal of CS&E: decision making. This requires us to tackle a spectrum of mathematical problems that subsume, and are thus even more difficult than, the forward problem. First, given experimental data, we wish to estimate unknown parameters characterizing a model of a natural or engineered system by solving an inverse problem. Second, we seek the optimal configuration of the system (or experiments) by solving an optimal design problem. Third, the optimal operation of the system must be determined by solving an optimal control problem. And fourth, we must quantify uncertainties as they propagate through all of the preceding problems, from data to model inference to prediction and finally to optimal design and control. Optimal mathematical methods and algorithms for such end-to-end, data-to-decisions modeling and simulation of complex problems—requiring integrated solution of forward, inverse, optimization, and UQ problems for large, multiphysics, multiscale models—entails challenges of the highest order, while also presenting great opportunities for applied mathematics research. Unfortunately, research on forward, inverse, optimization, and UQ problems has all-too-often progressed in isolation. This has led to mathematical methods that perform well when considering the forward simulation in isolation, but are prohibitive or suboptimal or unstable when combined with other methods within the framework of inversion, optimization, or UQ. The reverse is also true: general-purpose methods developed within the inversion, optimization, and UQ fields often become prohibitive when applied to complex CS&E problems since they do not exploit their structure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

DiaMonD: An Integrated Multifaceted Approach to Mathematics at the Interfaces of Data, Models, and Decisions

DiaMonD is a multi-institutional DOE MMICC effort that aims to address the challenges of end-to-end, data-to-decisions modeling and simulation for complex computational science and engineering problems in a unified, systematic, and integrated fashion. Institutions involved are Colorado State, Florida State, Los Alamos, MIT, Oak Ridge, Stanford, and UT-Austin. The goals of DiaMonD are (1) to develop advanced mathematical methods and analysis for multimodel, multiphysics, multiscale model problems driven by frontier DOE applications, including those in subsurface energy and environmental flows, materials for energy storage and conversion, and ice sheet dynamics; (2) to create theory and algorithms for integrated inversion, optimization, and uncertainty quantification for these complex problems; and (3) to disseminate the philosophy of an integrated end-to-end, data-to-decisions approach to modeling and simulation of complex problems to the broader applied math and computational science communities through workshops and other outreach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Valuation Framework for Informing Grid Modernization Decisions: Guidelines

Advances in technologies to provide electric power (e.g., renewable energy and battery storage), measurements and monitoring (e.g., synchrophasors, smart meters), communication (e.g., cellular service, Internet utilities), computing (powerful distributed microprocessors), and innovations in grid topologies and configurations (e.g., microgrids) have markedly changed the options available to provide electricity to end-users. The value propositions for electrical service have similarly become much more complex and diverse. The values of a grid design option can no longer be expressed by just using historical costemissions-reliability metrics. Nor can major decisions be made through closed analysis without consideration of the different stakeholders affected by a decision. This valuation framework provides a structure for valuation that is deliberate, inclusive, and transparent, documenting the intermediate and final results to ensure clarity, accountability and repeatability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗