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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design for Reliability (DfR) in Space Life Support

The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.

Reliability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tools And Methods to Analyze Plant Outage Schedule and Assist Schedulers in Improving Outage Resilience

Refueling outages of nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considered one of the most critical phases throughout the plant lifetime. In such instances, tens of thousands of activities (e.g., maintenance, surveillance) are performed in a short amount of time (typically 2-3 weeks unless major backfitting or modernization projects are carried out) by a large number of crews (e.g., electricians, mechanics) that are hired as contractors. As a consequence, a plant outage can be expensive not only in terms of costs (e.g., contractor labor, material), but also in terms of loss generation since the plant is taken off the grid during the full outage duration (an indicative metric is about 1.2M$/day of loss of revenue). Thus, there is a continuous need to decrease the economic impact of outages on plant finances. This can be done by: decreasing the frequency of plant outages (e.g., from 18 to 24 months), reducing the time to complete the outage, and reducing the risk of outage delays. The Optimization of Outage Activities project under the Risk Informed Systems Analysis Pathway (RISA) sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program focuses on developing tools and methods to support NPPs with outage schedule optimization. The developed tools and methods are designed to analyze plant outage schedule with the goal of identify critical elements in the schedule that might pose a high risk of delays. These methods and tools can be considered resource-centric in the sense that they address outage challenges as a resource optimization problem. In this context, resources are either time and crews; outage delays occurs when either (or both) resources are insufficient to complete the set of tasks assigned at a specific time instant of the outage. This report provides details on how plant resources (time and crews) can be allocated in such a way that delays are minimized. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: the first one focuses on the time resource and how variability of the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays. The second one integrates available resources to assess when dailies activities should be performed such that the risk of outage delays are minimized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗
NASA NTRS2008

Large Space Optics: From Hubble to JWST and Beyond

If necessity truly is the mother of invention, then advances in lightweight space mirror technology have been driven by launch vehicle mass and volume constraints. In the late 1970 s, at the start of Hubble development, the state of the art in ground based telescopes was 3 to 4 meter monolithic primary mirrors with masses of 6000 to 10,000 kg - clearly too massive for the planned space shuttle 25,000 kg capability to LEO. Necessity led Hubble to a different solution. Launch vehicle mass constraints (and cost) resulted in the development of a 2.4 meter lightweight eggcrate mirror. At 810 kg (180 kg/m2), this mirror was approximately 7.4% of HST s total 11,110 kg mass. And, the total observatory structure at 4.3 m x 13.2 m fit snuggly inside the space shuttle 4.6 m x 18.3 m payload bay. In the early 1990 s, at the start of JWST development, the state of the art in ground based telescopes was 8 meter class monolithic primary mirrors (16,000 to 23,000 kg) and 10 meter segmented mirrors (14,400 kg). Unfortunately, launch vehicles were still constrained to 4.5 meter payloads and 25,000 kg to LEO or 6,600 kg to L2. Furthermore, science now demanded a space telescope with 6 to 8 meter aperture operating at L2. Mirror technology was identified as a critical capability necessary to enable the next generation of large aperture space telescopes. Specific telescope architectures were explored via three independent design concept studies conducted during the summer of 1996 (1). These studies identified two significant architectural constraints: segmentation and areal density. Because the launch vehicle fairing payload dynamic envelop diameter is approximately 4.5 meters, the only way to launch an 8 meter class mirror is to segment it, fold it and deploy it on orbit - resulting in actuation and control requirements. And, because of launch vehicle mass limits, the primary mirror allocation was only 1000 kg - resulting in a maximum areal density of 20 kg/m2. At the inception of JWST in 1996, such a capability did not exist. A highly successful technology development program was initiated resulting in matured and demonstrated mirror technology for JWST (2, 3). Today, the JWST 6.5 meter primary mirror has an areal density of 25 kg/m2 for a total mass of 625 kg or 9.6% of the total JWST observatory mass of 6,500 kg. Looking into the future, science requires increasing larger collecting apertures. Ground based telescopes are already moving towards 30+ meter mirrors. The only way to meet this challenge for space telescopes is via even lower areal density mirrors or on-orbit assembly or larger launch vehicles (4). The planned NASA Ares V with its 10 meter fairing and 55,000 kg payload to L2 eliminates this constraint (5).

Stahl, H. Philip↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis for Microalgae Conversion Pathways to Fuels and Products

This technology case study report details the cost and sustainability prospects for an emerging feedstock - microalgae - converted to fuels and products via a fractionation and upgrading approach termed combined algae processing (CAP). Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) are conducted for the conversion of farmed algae biomass, with two primary scenarios considering the conversion of either high-compositional-quality biomass enriched in lipids (high-lipid [HL]) or lower-quality biomass enriched in protein (high-protein [HP]). Each scenario employs a different biorefinery configuration tailored towards extracting the maximum value from the given biomass composition. The HL scenario produces fuels and non-isocyanate polyurethane (NIPU) as the primary products, while the HP scenario products fuels and a residual solid coproduct which can be used as a co-feed for producing thermoplastics. The results for the HL scenario were particularly promising, with a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $\$$3.68 per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and fuel GHG emissions translating to 54%-76% reduction compared to petroleum fuels depending on the coproduct handling method used. In contrast, the HP scenario faced more challenges in producing biofuels economically, projecting an MFSP of $\$$7.92/GGE despite significant revenues from the residual algae solids. LCA results for the HP case reflected a 24% reduction potential in biorefinery-level GHG emissions. However, these GHG reductions were primarily associated with the thermoplastic coproduct, which accounted for 93% of all biorefinery outputs by mass. Using a process-level allocation method, carbon intensity results were less promising, indicating a net increase in fuel GHG emissions versus petroleum fuels and highlighting the reliance of this scenario on the thermoplastic coproduct.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2015

TTEthernet for Integrated Spacecraft Networks

Aerospace projects have traditionally employed federated avionics architectures, in which each computer system is designed to perform one specific function (e.g. navigation). There are obvious downsides to this approach, including excessive weight (from so much computing hardware), and inefficient processor utilization (since modern processors are capable of performing multiple tasks). There has therefore been a push for integrated modular avionics (IMA), in which common computing platforms can be leveraged for different purposes. This consolidation of multiple vehicle functions to shared computing platforms can significantly reduce spacecraft cost, weight, and design complexity. However, the application of IMA principles introduces significant challenges, as the data network must accommodate traffic of mixed criticality and performance levels - potentially all related to the same shared computer hardware. Because individual network technologies are rarely so competent, the development of truly integrated network architectures often proves unreasonable. Several different types of networks are utilized - each suited to support a specific vehicle function. Critical functions are typically driven by precise timing loops, requiring networks with strict guarantees regarding message latency (i.e. determinism) and fault-tolerance. Alternatively, non-critical systems generally employ data networks prioritizing flexibility and high performance over reliable operation. Switched Ethernet has seen widespread success filling this role in terrestrial applications. Its high speed, flexibility, and the availability of inexpensive commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components make it desirable for inclusion in spacecraft platforms. Basic Ethernet configurations have been incorporated into several preexisting aerospace projects, including both the Space Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS). However, classical switched Ethernet cannot provide the high level of network determinism required by real-time spacecraft applications. Even with modern advancements, the uncoordinated (i.e. event-driven) nature of Ethernet communication unavoidably leads to message contention within network switches. The arbitration process used to resolve such conflicts introduces variation in the time it takes for messages to be forwarded. TTEthernet1 introduces decentralized clock synchronization to switched Ethernet, enabling message transmission according to a time-triggered (TT) paradigm. A network planning tool is used to allocate each device a finite amount of time in which it may transmit a frame. Each time slot is repeated sequentially to form a periodic communication schedule that is then loaded onto each TTEthernet device (e.g. switches and end systems). Each network participant references the synchronized time in order to dispatch messages at predetermined instances. This schedule guarantees that no contention exists between time-triggered Ethernet frames in the network switches, therefore eliminating the need for arbitration (and the timing variation it causes). Besides time-triggered messaging, TTEthernet networks may provide two additional traffic classes to support communication of different criticality levels. In the rate-constrained (RC) traffic class, the frame payload size and rate of transmission along each communication channel are limited to predetermined maximums. The network switches can therefore be configured to accommodate the known worst-case traffic pattern, and buffer overflows can be eliminated. The best-effort (BE) traffic class behaves akin to classical Ethernet. No guarantees are provided regarding transmission latency or successful message delivery. TTEthernet coordinates transmission of all three traffic classes over the same physical connections, therefore accommodating the full spectrum of traffic criticality levels required in IMA architectures. Common computing platforms (e.g. LRUs) can share networking resources in such a way that failures in non-critical systems (using BE or RC communication modes) cannot impact flight-critical functions (using TT communication). Furthermore, TTEthernet hardware (e.g. switches, cabling) can be shared by both TTEthernet and classical Ethernet traffic.

Loveless, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2017

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project KDP-C Review

The topics discussed are the UAS-NAS project life-cycle and ARMD thrust flow down, as well as the UAS environments and how we operate in those environments. NASA's Armstrong Flight Research Center at Edwards, CA, is leading a project designed to help integrate unmanned air vehicles into the world around us. The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS in the NAS, will contribute capabilities designed to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The project falls under the Integrated Systems Research Program office managed at NASA Headquarters by the agency's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. NASA's four aeronautics research centers - Armstrong, Ames Research Center, Langley Research Center, and Glenn Research Center - are part of the technology development project. With the use and diversity of unmanned aircraft growing rapidly, new uses for these vehicles are constantly being considered. Unmanned aircraft promise new ways of increasing efficiency, reducing costs, enhancing safety and saving lives 460265main_ED10-0132-16_full.jpg Unmanned aircraft systems such as NASA's Global Hawks (above) and Predator B named Ikhana (below), along with numerous other unmanned aircraft systems large and small, are the prime focus of the UAS in the NAS effort to integrate them into the national airspace. Credits: NASA Photos 710580main_ED07-0243-37_full.jpg The UAS in the NAS project envisions performance-based routine access to all segments of the national airspace for all unmanned aircraft system classes, once all safety-related and technical barriers are overcome. The project will provide critical data to such key stakeholders and customers as the Federal Aviation Administration and RTCA Special Committee 203 (formerly the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) by conducting integrated, relevant system-level tests to adequately address safety and operational challenges of national airspace access by unmanned aircraft systems, or UAS. In the process, the project will work with other key stakeholders to define necessary deliverables and products to help enable such access. Within the project, NASA is focusing on five sub-projects. These five focus areas include assurance of safe separation of unmanned aircraft from manned aircraft when flying in the national airspace; safety-critical command and control systems and radio frequencies to enable safe operation of UAS; human factors issues for ground control stations; airworthiness certification standards for UAS avionics and integrated tests and evaluation designed to determine the viability of emerging UAS technology. Five Focus Areas of the UAS Integration in the NAS Project Separation Assurance Provide an assessment of how planned Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) separation assurance systems, with different functional allocations, perform for UAS in mixed operations with manned aircraft Assess the applicability to UAS and the performance of NASA NextGen separation assurance systems in flight tests with realistic latencies and uncertain trajectories Assess functional allocations ranging from today's ground-based, controller-provided aircraft separation to fully autonomous airborne self-separation Communications Develop data and rationale to obtain appropriate frequency spectrum allocations to enable safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Develop and validate candidate secure safety-critical command and control system/subsystem test equipment for UAS that complies with UAS international/national frequency regulations, standards and recommended practices and minimum operational and aviation system performance standards for UAS Perform analysis to support recommendations for integration of safety-critical command and control systems and air traffic control communications to ensure safe and efficient operation of UAS in the NAS Human Systems Integration Develop a research test bed and database to provide data and proof of concept for GCS - ground control station - operations in the NAS Coordinate with standards organizations to develop human-factors guidelines for GCS operation in the NAS Certification Define a UAS classification scheme and approach to determining Federal Aviation Regulation airworthiness requirements applicable to all UAS digital avionics Provide hazard and risk-related data to support development of type design criteria and best development practices Integrated Tests and Evaluation Integrate and test mature concepts from technical elements to demonstrate and test viability Evaluate the performance of technology development in a relevant environment (full-mission, human-in-the-loop simulations and flight tests)

outreach↗
DOE OSTI2025

AMF diversity promotes plant community phosphorus acquisition and reduces carbon costs per unit of phosphorus

Plants may benefit from more diverse communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), as functional complementarity of AMF may allow for increased resource acquisition, and because a high AMF diversity increases the probability of plants matching with an optimal AMF symbiont. Here, we repeatedly radiolabeled plants and AMF in the glasshouse over c. 9 months to test how AMF species richness (SR) influences the exchange of plant C ( 14 C) for AMF P ( 32 P & 33 P) and resulting shoot nutrients and mass from a biodiversity–ecosystem functioning perspective. Plant P acquisition via AMF increased with sown AMF SR, as did shoot biomass, shoot P, and shoot N. The rate of plant C transferred to AMF for this P (C:P) decreased with sown AMF SR. Plants in plant communities benefit from inoculation with a variety of AMF species via more favorable resource exchange. Surprisingly, this effect did not differ among functionally distinct communities comprised entirely of either legumes, nonlegume forbs, or C3 grasses.

arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Springtime Drought Shifts Carbon Partitioning of Recent Photosynthates in 10-Year Old Picea mariana Trees, Causing Restricted Canopy Development

Springtime bud-break and shoot development induces substantial carbon (C) costs in trees. Drought stress during shoot development can impede C uptake and translocation. This is therefore a channel through which water shortage can lead to restricted shoot expansion and physiological capacity, which in turn may impact annual canopy C uptake. We studied effects of drought and re-hydration on early season shoot development, C uptake and partitioning in five individual 10-year old Picea mariana [black spruce] trees to identify and quantify dynamics of key morphological/physiological processes. Trees were subjected to one of two treatments: (i) well-watered control or (ii) drought and rehydration. We monitored changes in morphological [shoot volume, leaf mass area (LMA)], biochemical [osmolality, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC)] and physiological [rates of respiration (R d ) and light-saturated photosynthesis ( A sat )] processes during shoot development. Further, to study functional compartmentalization and use of new assimilates, we 13 C-pulse labeled shoots at multiple development stages, and measured isotopic signatures of leaf respiration, NSC pools and structural biomass. Shoot water potential dropped to a minimum of −2.5 MPa in shoots on the droughted trees. Development of the photosynthetic apparatus was delayed, as shoots on well-watered trees broke-even 14 days prior to shoots from trees exposed to water deficit. R d decreased with shoot maturation as growth respiration declined, and was lower in shoots exposed to drought. We found that shoot development was delayed by drought, and while rehydration resulted in recovery of A sat to similar levels as shoots on the well-watered trees, shoot volume remained lower. Water deficit during shoot expansion resulted in longer, yet more compact (i.e., with greater LMA) shoots with greater needle osmolality. The 12 C: 13 C isotopic patterns indicated that internal C partitioning and use was dependent on foliar developmental and hydration status. Shoots on drought-stressed trees prioritized allocating newly fixed C to respiration over structural components. In conclusion, temporary water deficit delayed new shoot development and resulted in greater LMA in black spruce. Since evergreen species such as black spruce retain active foliage for multiple years, impacts of early season drought on net primary productivity could be carried forward into subsequent years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

NASA Graduate Student Researchers Program Ronald E. McNair PhD Program

The NASA Ronald E. McNair PHD Program was funded in September 1995. Implementation began during the spring of 1996. The deferment of the actual program initial semester enabled the program to continue support through the fall semester of 1998. This was accomplished by a no-cost extension from August 15, 1998 through December 31, 1998. There were 12 fellows supported by the program in 1996, 15 fellows in 1997, and 15 fellows 1998. Current program capacity is 15 fellows per funding support. Support for the academic outreach component began in spring 1998. The program was named the "Good Enough" Crew Activity (GECA) in honor of Dr. McNair's philosophy of everyone being good enough to achieve anything they want bad enough. The program currently enrolls 65 students from the third through the eight grades. The program is held 12 Saturdays per semester. The time is 9:00 AM to 12:30 PM each Saturday Morning. Program direction and facilitation is jointly administered with the PHD fellows and the Saturday Academy staff. Dr. John Kelly, REM-PHD Principal Investigator serves in a program oversight and leadership capacity. Ms. Sunnie Howard, The NASA REM-PHD Administrative Coordinator serves in an administrative and logistical capacity. Mr. Aaron Hatch, the NASA-AMES Liaison Officer, serve@'in a consultative and curriculum review capacity. The first recognition activity will be held on December 12, 1998, with the students, parents, faculty, PHD fellows, and other local student support services persons. Program outreach efforts are jointly supported by the NASA REM-PHD Program and the National Space Grant College and Fellowship Program. The Ph.D. program reached its first milestone in May 1998. North Carolina A&T State University graduated the first Ph.D. fellows. The first three Ph.D. Alumni were Ronald E. McNair PHD Program Fellows. It is hoped that this is just the beginning of a highly acclaimed doctoral program. The ultimate program success will be recognized when the program begins to graduate 15 fellows per year. The Ph.D. Program is only three and a half years old and the expectations of graduating PH.D's in that timeframe, is a phenomenal accomplishment for any program in the country. Since inception of the NASA REM-PHD program, tuitions and fees have increased. Stipend support was increased to offer the Ph.D. program on a competitive basis. These increases will place allocation restraints on r_ the current level of funding. These issues are being addressed in the proposal and will bear their own merit.

Howard, Sunnie↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating uncertainty for enhanced leaderboard scoring and ranking in data competitions

Data competitions have become a popular and cost-effective approach for crowdsourcing versatile solutions from diverse expertise. Current practice relies on the simple leaderboard scoring based on a given set of competition data for ranking competitors and distributing the prize. However, a disadvantage of this practice in many competitions is that a slight difference in the scores due to the natural variability of the observed data could result in a much larger difference in the prize amounts. In this article, we propose a new strategy to quantify the uncertainty in the rankings and scores from using different data sets that share common characteristics with the provided competition data. By using a bootstrap approach to generate many comparable data sets, the new method has four advantages over current practice. Furthermore, during the competition, it provides a mechanism for competitors to get feedback about the uncertainty in their relative ranking. After the competition, it allows the host to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithm performance and their robustness across representative data sets. It also offers a transparent mechanism for prize distribution to reward the competitors more fairly with superior and robust performance. Finally, it has the additional advantage of being able to explore what results might have looked like if competition goals evolved from their original choices. The implementation of the strategy is illustrated with a real data competition hosted by Topcoder on urban radiation search.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sex ratio of Western Bluebirds ( Sialia mexicana ) is mediated by phenology and clutch size

Mothers may produce more of one sex to maximize their fitness if there are differences in the cost of producing each sex or there are differences in their relative reproductive value. Breeding date and clutch size are known to influence offspring sex ratios in birds through sex differences in dispersal, social behaviours, differential mortality and available food resources. We tested whether breeding date, clutch size and drought conditions influenced offspring sex ratios in a sexually size-monomorphic species, the Western Bluebird Sialia mexicana, by interrogating a 21-year dataset. After controlling for differential mortality, we found that hatch dates late in the breeding season were associated with the production of more females, suggesting that the value of producing males declines as the breeding season progresses. When clutch size was taken into account, small clutches yielded significantly more females late in the breeding season than in the early and middle parts of the breeding season, which produced significantly more males. Here, large clutches early in the season tended to produce more females, although this was not significant. Drought severity was not correlated with sex ratio adjustment. We propose and discuss several explanations for these patterns, including male offspring, but not female offspring, acting as helpers, increased female nestling provisioning late in the breeding season, differences in food abundance and egg-laying order. Future work will help to uncover the mechanisms leading to these patterns. Identifying patterns and mechanisms of sex ratio skew from long-term datasets is important for informing predictions regarding life-history trade-offs in wildlife populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerocapture Trajectory Design for Uranus Orbiter

Introduction: The recently released National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032 [1] identified the Ice Giants as the top priority science destination. While the survey acknowledged the potential for either a Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission or a Neptune-Triton Odyssey mission, it ultimately identified the former as the highest priority new flagship mission. UOP missions calls for a launch window of opportunity between 2031-2038 with 12-15 year interplanetary cruise time along with a fully-propulsive Uranus Orbit Insertion burn on the order of a few km/s. However, a mission to Uranus with the same science payload could utilize aerocapture for orbit insertion to achieve both a significant reduction in the interplanetary cruise time and reduction in propulsive burn costs. Why Aerocapture: Aerocapture is a promising propellant and time-saving orbital insertion technique for planetary destinations with an atmosphere. Although not flight-proven, previous aerocapture systems studies in the literature have demonstrated both the validity and robustness of the technique at various planetary destinations. With respect to the Ice Giant planets, Neptune has seen more of the analysis in the literature. For science missions at Neptune, aerocapture can enable 1.4 times more delivered mass to orbit than an all-propulsive mission for the same launch vehicle while reducing interplanetary cruise times by more than 3 years [2] Additionally with modern guidance and control, Neptune aerocapture with blunt-body aeroshells is realizable [3][4]. There are limited papers in the literature investigating Uranus aerocapture with those available providing a preliminary feasibility assessment [5]. Consequently, the two-year funded NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded project, titled Aerocapture System as an Enabling Technology for Ice Giants Missions, aims to mature the analysis and technology state of Uranus aerocapture. Trajectory Design: This paper presents the current state of the trajectory design in support of the new aerocapture project. The project design philosophy is inspired from recent Neptune aerocapture studies, which employed modern guidance and control, in the sense that blunt-body aeroshells are analyzed. An assessment of the theoretical flight path angle corridor width is conducted for a range of ballistic coefficients and lift-to-drag ratios for both Space Launch System and Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle interplanetary trajectory solutions. The results from the corridor width assessment provide an assessment of the aerocapture design-space and qualitative metrics on trajectory design considerations. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is utilized to run Monte Carlo simulations of Uranus aerocapture three-degree-of-freedom bank angle modulated trajectories using a closed-loop numerical-predictor corrector guidance algorithm. UranusGRAM 2021 is utilized as the atmospheric model [6]. A Uranus-developed aerodatabase, originally derived from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), is utilized to provide vehicle aerodynamics over a wide range of hypersonic flow regimes. A MSL-derived 70 deg 4.5m diameter sphere-cone aeroshell that houses the UOP payload mass is assumed. Robustness testing and performance analysis is conducted, including the assessment of entry state errors, atmosphere density variations, and aerodynamic dispersions. Post-aerocapture Delta-V and aerothermal statistics are formulated into propellant mass and TPS requirements. The results presented in the paper will demonstrate the trajectory viability of Uranus aerocapture. Preliminary Results: Preliminary trajectory design results indicates successful Uranus aerocapture with a blunt-body aeroshell housing the same payload mass as the UOP mission from an Earth-to-Uranus interplanetary trajectory arriving in less than 7 years. From this interplanetary trajectory, aerocapture provides an orbit insertion Delta-V capability of 6.9 km/s requiring less than 300 m/s for post-aerocapture correction burns (15% of wet mass allocated to propellant). To put this into perspective, the UOP study utilized an Earth-to-Uranus trajectory that arrives in 13 years and requires more than 1000 m/s for fully-propulsive orbit insertion (40% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Achieving the same 6.9 km/s Delta-V capability fully-propulsively is mass prohibitive (97% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Nevertheless, aerocapture has the potential to reduce interplanetary transit times to Uranus by half while delivering the same payload mass to orbit in a reduced propellant mass footprint.

Rohan Deshmukh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗