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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities

This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

economics↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Techno-Economic Analysis and Cost Reduction Roadmap for III-V Solar Cells

III-V materials have achieved the highest efficiency of any solar cell technology. They have been commercially available since the 1960s, and have been widely used in space applications where high performance is required. However, prices of III-V solar cells are currently 2 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than other technologies, prohibiting their use in mainstream photovoltaic (PV) markets outside of high concentration photovoltaic systems. In this report, we present bottom-up cost models for current III-V solar cell technology, and explore the reasons behind these high costs. Then, we examine the advances required to drive cost down, and present a roadmap illustrating potential pathways to reach costs that could enable III-Vs to be competitive in broader, terrestrial markets without concentration. We find that cell manufacturing costs of $0.40/W or below could be achieved in high volume production, but that this would require commercialization and scale-up of a low-cost epitaxial growth technique, implementation of alternative, low-cost metallization schemes, and, critically, significant research and development to address the high cost of the substrate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

ICME Guided Development of Advanced Cast Aluminum Alloys for Automotive Engine Applications (ADAPA)

Project Objectives: To develop a new class of advanced, cost competitive aluminum casting alloys providing a 25% improvement in component strength relative to components made with A319 or A356 alloys using sand and semi-permanent casting processes for high-performance engine applications. To demonstrate the power of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools for accelerating the development of new materials and processing techniques, as well as to identify the gaps in ICME capabilities. To develop comprehensive cost models to ensure that components manufactured with these new alloys do not exceed 110% of the cost using incumbents alloys A319 or A356. To develop a technology transfer and commercialization plan for deployment of these new alloys in automotive engine applications. The key targets and baseline are shown in the table below.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

ICME Guided Development of Advanced Cast Aluminum Alloys for Automotive Engine Applications (ADAPA) (Final Report)

Project Objectives include the following: 1) To develop a new class of advanced, cost competitive aluminum casting alloys providing a 25% improvement in component strength relative to components made with A319 or A356 alloys using sand and semi-permanent casting processes for highperformance engine applications; 2) To demonstrate the power of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) tools for accelerating the development of new materials and processing techniques, as well as to identify the gaps in ICME capabilities; 3) To develop comprehensive cost models to ensure that components manufactured with these new alloys do not exceed 110% of the cost using incumbent alloys A319 or A356; 4) To develop a technology transfer and commercialization plan for deployment of these new alloys in automotive engine applications; 5) The key targets and baseline are shown in the table below.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1977

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 5: Economic analysis

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems are studied along with a variety of economic and programmatic issues relevant to their development and deployment. The costs, uncertainties and risks associated with the current photovoltaic Satellite Solar Power System (SSPS) configuration, and issues affecting the development of an economically viable SSPS development program are addressed. In particular, the desirability of low earth orbit (LEO) and geosynchronous (GEO) test satellites is examined and critical technology areas are identified. The development of SSPS unit production (nth item), and operation and maintenance cost models suitable for incorporation into a risk assessment (Monte Carlo) model (RAM) are reported. The RAM was then used to evaluate the current SSPS configuration expected costs and cost-risk associated with this configuration. By examining differential costs and cost-risk as a function of postulated technology developments, the critical technologies, that is, those which drive costs and/or cost-risk, are identified. It is shown that the key technology area deals with productivity in space, that is, the ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space, not, as might be expected, with some hardware component technology.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2007

Distribution of Cost Growth in Robotic Space Science Missions

Cost growth characterization is a critical factor for effective cost risk analysis and project planning. This study analyzed low level budget changes in Jet Propulsion Laboratory-managed space science missions, which occurred during the development of the project. The data was then curve fit, according to cost distribution categories, to provide a reference set of distribution parameters with sufficient granularity to effectively model cost growth in robotic space science missions.

cost↗
DOE OSTI2024

RAP: Resource-aware Automated GPU Sharing for Multi-GPU Recommendation Model Training and Input Preprocessing

Ensuring high-quality recommendations for newly onboarded users requires the continuous retraining of Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) with freshly generated data. To serve the online DLRM retraining, existing solutions use hundreds of CPU computing nodes designated for input preprocessing, causing significant power consumption that surpasses even the power usage of GPU trainers. To this end, we propose RAP, an end-to-end DLRM training framework that supports Resource-aware Automated GPU sharing for DLRM input Preprocessing and Training. The core idea of RAP is to accurately capture the remaining GPU computing resources during DLRM training for input preprocessing, achieving superior training efficiency without requiring additional resources. Specifically, RAP utilizes a co-running cost model to efficiently assess the costs of various input preprocessing operations, and it implements a resource-aware horizontal fusion technique that adaptively merges smaller kernels according to GPU availability, circumventing any interference with DLRM training. In addition, RAP leverages a heuristic searching algorithm that jointly optimizes both the input preprocessing graph mapping and the co-running schedule to maximize the end-to-end DLRM training throughput. The comprehensive evaluation shows that RAP achieves 78.3× speedup on average over CPU-based DLRM input preprocessing frameworks. In addition, the end-to-end training throughput of RAP is only 2.04% lower than the ideal case, which has no input preprocessing overhead.

Wang, Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the operational characteristics and economic value of pumped thermal energy storage

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems use an electrically-driven heat pump to store electricity in the form of thermal energy, and subsequently dispatch the stored thermal energy to generate electricity using a thermodynamic heat engine. Optimal day-ahead operational scheduling and annual value of a PTES system based on Joule-Brayton thermodynamic cycles and two-tank molten salt hot thermal storage is evaluated in this work. Production cost models, which simultaneously optimize commitment and dispatch schedules for an entire set of generators to minimize the cost of satisfying electricity demand, are employed to determine system-optimal operation and day-ahead energy value of the PTES system within each of six hypothetical near-future grid scenarios intended to approximately represent the U.S. Western Interconnection or the Texas Interconnection. Sensitivity to grid scenario (including the contribution of variable renewable energy sources), thermal storage capacity, relative heat pump and heat engine capacities, and startup/shutdown cycling costs are evaluated. PTES energy value and heat engine annual capacity factor increase strongly as the contribution of variable renewable resources increases, heat pump capacity increases relative to heat engine capacity, or PTES cycling costs decrease. Grid scenarios in which the contribution of variable renewable energy is dominated by solar photovoltaics (PV) vs. wind produce inherently different PTES operational patterns. Annual PTES energy value within PV-dominated scenarios increased with storage capacity only up to approximately seven hours of full-load discharge capacity, whereas that within wind-dominated scenarios exhibited a continual increase with storage duration up to at least 16 hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Patterning Metal Grids for GaAs Solar Cells with Cracked Film Lithography: Quantifying the Cost/Performance Tradeoff

We introduce cracked film lithography (CFL) as a way to reduce the cost of III–V photovoltaics (PV). We spin-coat nanoparticle suspensions onto GaAs thin-film device stacks. The suspensions dry in seconds, forming crack networks that we use as templates through which to electroplate the solar cells’ front metal grids. For the first time, we show that heating the crack template allows it to flow and refill cracks, which decreases crack footprint and improves final grid transmittance. We demonstrate 24.7%-efficient single-junction GaAs solar cells using vacuum-free CFL grids. These devices are only 1.7% (absolute) less efficient than the baseline grids patterned by photolithography with the loss mostly resulting from the reduced transparency of the CFL pattern. Additional optimization could decrease this difference. Initial cost modeling suggests that CFL is more scalable than photolithography: In particular, CFL’s lower materials and equipment costs could greatly reduce the levelized cost of electricity of III–V PV at scale, a potential step toward terrestrial deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Low–Cost Bio-Based Carbon Fiber for High-Temperature Processing

GrafTech International Holdings Inc. (GTI), worked with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under CRADA No. NFE-15-05807 to develop lignin-based carbon fiber (LBCF) technology and to demonstrate LBCF performance in high-temperature products and applications. This work was unique and different from other reported LBCF work in that this study was application-focused and scalability-focused. Accordingly, the executed work was based on meeting criteria based on technology development, cost, and application suitability. The focus of this work was to demonstrate lab-scale LBCF from at least 4 different precursor feedstock sources that could meet the estimated production cost of $5.00/pound and have ash level of less than 500 ppm in the carbonized insulation-grade fiber. Accordingly, a preliminary cost model was developed based on publicly available information. The team demonstrated that 4 lignin samples met the cost criteria, as highlighted in Table 1. In addition, the ash level for the 4 carbonized lignin samples were below 500 ppm. Processing asreceived lignin to produce a high purity lignin fiber was a significant accomplishment in that most industrial lignin, prior to purification, had greater than 4X the ash level needed for this project, and prior to this work there was not a clear path of how to achieve the purity target. The lab scale development of LBCF was performed with a specific functional application in mind, specifically for high temperature rigid insulation. GTI is currently a consumer of foreignsourced pitch and rayon based carbon fibers for use in its high temperature insulation products, and the motivation was that LBCF had potential to decrease costs and increase product competitiveness in the marketplace through lowered raw material costs, lowered energy costs, and decreased environmental footprint. At the end of this project, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) remained at 5 for LBCF in high temperature insulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Low-Cost Bio-Based Carbon Fibers for High Temperature Processing

GrafTech International Holdings Inc. (GTI), under Award No. DE-EE0005779, worked with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under CRADA No. NFE-15-05807 to develop lignin-based carbon fiber (LBCF) technology and to demonstrate LBCF performance in high-temperature products and applications. This work was unique and different from other reported LBCF work in that this study was application-focused and scalability-focused. Accordingly, the executed work was based on meeting criteria based on technology development, cost, and application suitability. High-temperature carbon fiber based insulation is used in energy intensive industries, such as metal heat treating and ceramic and semiconductor material production. Insulation plays a critical role in achieving high thermal and process efficiency, which is directly related to energy usage, cost, and product competitiveness. Current high temperature insulation is made with petroleum based carbon fibers, and one goal of this protect was to develop and demonstrate an alternative lignin (biomass) based carbon fiber that would achieve lower cost, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption and result in insulation that met or exceeded the thermal efficiency of current commercial insulation. In addition, other products were targeted to be evaluated with LBCF. As the project was designed to proceed in stages, the initial focus of this work was to demonstrate lab-scale LBCF from at least 4 different lignin precursor feedstock sources that could meet the estimated production cost of $5.00/pound and have ash level of less than 500 ppm in the carbonized insulation-grade fiber. Accordingly, a preliminary cost model was developed based on publicly available information. The team demonstrated that 4 lignin samples met the cost criteria. In addition, the ash level for the 4 carbonized lignin samples was below 500 ppm. Processing as-received lignin to produce a high purity lignin fiber was a significant accomplishment in that most industrial lignin, prior to purification, had greater than 4X the ash level needed for this project, and prior to this work there was not a clear path of how to achieve the purity target. The lab scale development of LBCF was performed with a specific functional application in mind, specifically for high temperature rigid insulation. GTI is a consumer of foreign-sourced pitch and rayon based carbon fibers for use in its high temperature insulation products, and the motivation was that LBCF had potential to decrease costs and increase product competitiveness in the marketplace through lowered raw material costs, lowered energy costs, and decreased environmental footprint. At the end of this project, the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) remained at 5 for LBCF in high temperature insulation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Affordable Design: A Methodolgy to Implement Process-Based Manufacturing Cost into the Traditional Performance-Focused Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

The primary objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of process-based manufacturing and assembly cost models in a traditional performance-focused multidisciplinary design and optimization process. The use of automated cost-performance analysis is an enabling technology that could bring realistic processbased manufacturing and assembly cost into multidisciplinary design and optimization. In this paper, we present a new methodology for incorporating process costing into a standard multidisciplinary design optimization process. Material, manufacturing processes, and assembly processes costs then could be used as the objective function for the optimization method. A case study involving forty-six different configurations of a simple wing is presented, indicating that a design based on performance criteria alone may not necessarily be the most affordable as far as manufacturing and assembly cost is concerned.

Bao, Han P.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 /kW and 30 /kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. As an example, the unit price of a 5 MW standard design turbine could be 150 /W cheaper than the custom design. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup. In addition to manufacturing cost savings, there is a delivery time saving up to 10 months, which could have a positive effect to construction financing operation time. Another advantage of these standard turbines is their adaptability to different geothermal systems by operating at off-design conditions. We also modeled off-design turbine efficiencies within the commercially-favorable operating range of a standard ORC compared to custom-designed ORC equipment. Than we used these performance calculations and power output capacities in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of plant operations and financing, thereby creating representative techno economic models of a total geothermal power plant. I this scope we used NREL's System Advisor model (SAM) and performed DCF analysis of standard and custom design turbines using results from IPSEpro over range of temperatures of interest. In this scope 63 different off-design cases were analyzed. This helped us to answer the question; 'Can today's capital cost savings compensate the future revenue losses due to lower electricity generation?' The results showed that, the net capital cost savings for the modeled 5 MW case study may reach up to plus 1,298,672. Also, the difference between NPV of standard design and custom design turbine could reach up to 733,940. To sum up, when all the things mentioned above are taken into consideration, it can be said that, the standard turbines are competitive over a wide range of temperatures and flow rates and the give positive NPV differences for certain cases near their design point.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

2018 Research Highlight in Manufacturing: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 $/kW and 30 $/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. As an example, the unit price of a 5 MW standard design turbine could be 150 $/W cheaper than the custom design. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup. In addition to manufacturing cost savings, there is a delivery time saving up to 10 months, which could have a positive effect to construction financing operation time. Another advantage of these standard turbines is their adaptability to different geothermal systems by operating at off-design conditions. We also modeled off-design turbine efficiencies within the commercially-favorable operating range of a standard ORC compared to custom-designed ORC equipment. Than we used these performance calculations and power output capacities in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of plant operations and financing, thereby creating representative techno economic models of a total geothermal power plant. I this scope we used NREL's System Advisor model (SAM) and performed DCF analysis of standard and custom design turbines using results from IPSEpro over range of temperatures of interest. In this scope 63 different off-design cases were analyzed. This helped us to answer the question; 'Can today`s capital cost savings compensate the future revenue losses due to lower electricity generation?' The results showed that, the net capital cost savings for the modeled 5 MW case study may reach up to +$1,298,672. Also, the difference between NPV of standard design and custom design turbine could reach up to +$733,940. To sum up, when all the things mentioned above are taken into consideration, it can be said that, the standard turbines are competitive over a wide range of temperatures and flow rates and the give positive NPV differences for certain cases near their design point.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Development of a funding, cost, and spending model for satellite projects

The need for a predictive budget/funging model is obvious. The current models used by the Resource Analysis Office (RAO) are used to predict the total costs of satellite projects. An effort to extend the modeling capabilities from total budget analysis to total budget and budget outlays over time analysis was conducted. A statistical based and data driven methodology was used to derive and develop the model. Th budget data for the last 18 GSFC-sponsored satellite projects were analyzed and used to build a funding model which would describe the historical spending patterns. This raw data consisted of dollars spent in that specific year and their 1989 dollar equivalent. This data was converted to the standard format used by the RAO group and placed in a database. A simple statistical analysis was performed to calculate the gross statistics associated with project length and project cost ant the conditional statistics on project length and project cost. The modeling approach used is derived form the theory of embedded statistics which states that properly analyzed data will produce the underlying generating function. The process of funding large scale projects over extended periods of time is described by Life Cycle Cost Models (LCCM). The data was analyzed to find a model in the generic form of a LCCM. The model developed is based on a Weibull function whose parameters are found by both nonlinear optimization and nonlinear regression. In order to use this model it is necessary to transform the problem from a dollar/time space to a percentage of total budget/time space. This transformation is equivalent to moving to a probability space. By using the basic rules of probability, the validity of both the optimization and the regression steps are insured. This statistically significant model is then integrated and inverted. The resulting output represents a project schedule which relates the amount of money spent to the percentage of project completion.

Johnson, Jesse P.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Planning Optimization for Inductively Charged On-demand Automated Electric Shuttles Project at Greenville, South Carolina

Wireless charging technology presents an ideal fit for autonomous electric vehicles for realizing a fully automated system (vehicle and charger). This paper presents a planning optimization analysis for a pilot project of in-route wireless charging infrastructure serving fixed-route on-demand shared automated electric shuttles (SAESs) at Greenville, South Carolina, USA. A single-objective non-linear mixed integer system planning optimization problem is formulated. A comprehensive cost model representing the overall inductively charged SAESs system is developed, considering road construction, power electronics and materials, traction battery, and installation costs. The optimization problem is solved to determine the best combination of the system key design parameters (number and allocations of wireless chargers, charging power level, track length and on-board battery capacity) that show the most cost-effective solution and allow the SAESs to achieve charge-sustaining operation. The planning platform incorporates representative simulated traffic data (driving speed and routes) for four SAESs in the Greenville using the Simulation of Urban Mobility tool. These data are fed to a vehicle powertrain model and a wireless charger power model to predict the battery power, energy and state-of-charge profiles, which are provided to the search algorithm to assess the design objectives under specific constraints. Finally, the results indicate that implementing high-power (100 kW) wireless charger at a few designated stops for fixed-route SAESs with the proper track length allows the vehicles to realize charge-sustaining operation, infinite range, and zero recharge downtime, with a significant reduction in the on-board battery (36%) and road coverage (69%), at minimum cost.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗