Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence interval”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from single- and double-Higgs production with the ATLAS detector using $pp$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling are set by combining double-Higgs boson analyses in the $b\overline{b}$$b\overline{b}$, $b\overline{b}$$τ^+$$τ^–$ and $b\overline{b}$$γγ$ decay channels with single-Higgs boson analyses targeting the $γγ$, $\overline{Z}$$\overline{Z}$$^*$, $WW^*$, $τ^+$$τ^–$ and $b\overline{b}$ decay channels. The data used in these analyses were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 126–139 fb –1 . The combination of the double-Higgs analyses sets an upper limit of $μ_{HH}$ < 2.4 at 95% confidence level on the double-Higgs production cross-section normalised to its Standard Model prediction. Combining the single-Higgs and double-Higgs analyses, with the assumption that new physics affects only the Higgs boson self-coupling ($λ_{HHH}$), values outside the interval –0.4 < $κ_λ$ = ($λ_{HHH}$/${λ}_{HHH}^{SM}$) < 6.3 are excluded at 95% confidence level. The combined single-Higgs and doubleHiggs analyses provide results with fewer assumptions, by adding in the fit more coupling modifiers introduced to account for the Higgs boson interactions with the other Standard Model particles. In this relaxed scenario, the constraint becomes –1.4 < $κ_λ$ < 6.1 at 95% CL.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for a cH signal in the associated production of at least one charm quark with a Higgs boson in the diphoton decay channel in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

This paper presents the first search for a cH signal sensitive to the coupling of the charm quark (c) to the Higgs boson (H) in the associated production of at least one charm quark with a Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The results are based on a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Assuming the standard model (SM) rates for all other Higgs boson production processes, the observed (expected) upper limit at 95% confidence level on the cH signal strength is 243 (355) times the SM prediction. Under the same assumption, the observed (expected) allowed interval on the Higgs boson to charm quark coupling modifier, κ c , is |κ c | < 38.1 (|κ c | < 72.5) at 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ and tH production rates in the H → $\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}$ decay channel using proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

An analysis of the production of a Higgs boson (H) in association with a top quark-antiquark pair ($\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$) or a single top quark (tH) is presented. The Higgs boson decay into a bottom quark-antiquark pair (H → $\textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}}$) is targeted, and three different final states of the top quark decays are considered, defined by the number of leptons (electrons or muons) in the event. The analysis utilises proton-proton collision data collected at the CERN LHC with the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV in 2016–2018, which correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The observed $\sqrt{s}$ production rate relative to the standard model expectation is 0.33 ± 0.26 = 0.33 ± 0.17(stat) ± 0.21(syst). Additionally, the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ production rate is determined in intervals of Higgs boson transverse momentum. An upper limit at 95% confidence level is set on the tH production rate of 14.6 times the standard model prediction, with an expectation of ${19.3}_{-6.0}^{+9.2}$. Finally, constraints are derived on the strength and structure of the coupling between the Higgs boson and the top quark from simultaneous extraction of the $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{H}$ and tH production rates, and the results are combined with those obtained in other Higgs boson decay channels.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Probing the chiral magnetic wave with charge-dependent flow measurements in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC

The Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW) phenomenon is essential to provide insights into the strong interaction in QCD, the properties of the quark-gluon plasma, and the topological characteristics of the early universe, offering a deeper understanding of fundamental physics in high-energy collisions. Measurements of the charge-dependent anisotropic flow coefficients are studied in Pb-Pb collisions at center-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV to probe the CMW. In particular, the slope of the normalized difference in elliptic (v 2 ) and triangular (v 3 ) flow coefficients of positively and negatively charged particles as a function of their event-wise normalized number difference, is reported for inclusive and identified particles. The slope ${r}_3^{\textrm{Norm}}$ is found to be larger than zero and to have a magnitude similar to ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$, thus pointing to a large background contribution for these measurements. Furthermore, ${r}_2^{\textrm{Norm}}$ can be described by a blast wave model calculation that incorporates local charge conservation. In addition, using the event shape engineering technique yields a fraction of CMW (f CMW ) contribution to this measurement which is compatible with zero. This measurement provides the very first upper limit for f CMW , and in the 10–60% centrality interval it is found to be 26% (38%) at 95% (99.7%) confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

EMU processing - A myth dispelled

The refurbishment-and-checkout 'processing' activities entailed by the Space Shuttle Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) are currently significantly more modest, at 1050 man-hours, than when Space Shuttle services began (involving about 4000 man-hours). This great improvement in hardware efficiency is due to the design or modification of test rigs for simplification of procedures, as well as those procedures' standardization, in conjunction with an increase in hardware confidence which has allowed the extension of inspection, service, and testing intervals. Recent simplification of the hardware-processing sequence could reduce EMU processing requirements to 600 man-hours in the near future.

Peacock, Paul R.↗

Real time prediction of marine vessel motions using Kalman filtering techniques

The present investigation is concerned with the prediction of the future behavior of a vessel within some confidence bounds at a specific instant of time, taking into account an interval of a few seconds. The ability to predict accurately the motions of a vessel can reduce significantly the probability of failure of operations in rough seas. The investigation was started as part of an effort to ensure safe landing of aircraft on relatively small vessels. However, the basic principles involved in the study are the same for any offshore operation, such as carbo transfer in the open sea, structure installation, and floating crane operation. The Kalman filter is a powerful tool for achieving the goals of the prediction procedure. Attention is given to a linear optimal predictor, the equations of motion of the vessel, the wave spectrum, rational approximation, the use of Kalman filter and predictor in an application for a ship, and the motions of a semisubmersible.

Triantafyllou, M. S.↗

A Model for Effective Professional Development of Formal Science Educators

The Lunar Workshops for Educators (LWE) series was developed by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) education team in 2010 to provide professional development on lunar science and exploration concepts for grades 6-9 science teachers. Over 300 educators have been trained to date. The LWE model incorporates best practices from pedagogical research of science education, thoughtful integration of scientists and engineer subject matter experts for both content presentations and informal networking with educators, access to NASA-unique facilities, hands-on and data-rich activities aligned with education standards, exposure to the practice of science, tools for addressing common misconceptions, follow-up with participants, and extensive evaluation. Evaluation of the LWE model via pre- and post-assessments, daily workshop surveys, and follow-up surveys at 6-month and 1-year intervals indicate that the LWE are extremely effective in increasing educators' content knowledge, confidence in incorporating content into the classroom, understanding of the practice of science, and ability to address common student misconceptions. In order to address the efficacy of the LWE model for other science content areas, the Dynamic Response of Environments at Asteroids, the Moon, and moons of Mars (DREAM2) education team, funded by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, developed and ran a pilot workshop called Dream2Explore at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in June, 2015. Dream2Explore utilized the LWE model, but incorporated content related to the science and exploration of asteroids and the moons of Mars. Evaluation results indicate that the LWE model was effectively used for educator professional development on non-lunar content. We will present more detail on the LWE model, evaluation results from the Dream2Explore pilot workshop, and suggestions for the application of the model with other science content for robust educator professional development.

Orbiter↗

Upper limits to the quiet-time solar neutron flux from 10 to 100 MeV

The UCR large area solid-angle double scatter neutron telescope was flown to search for solar neutrons on 3 balloon flights on September 26, 1971, May 14, 1972 and September 19, 1972. The first two flights were launched from Palestine, Texas and the third from Cape Girardeau, Missouri. The float altitude on each flight was at about 5 g/sq cm residual atmosphere. Neutrons from 10 to 100 MeV were measured. No solar flares occurred during the flights. Upper limits to the quiet time solar neutron fluxes at the 95% confidence level are .00028, .00046, .00096 and .00090 neutrons/sq cm-sec in the energy intervals of 10-30, 30-50, 50-100 and 10-100 MeV, respectively.

Moon, S.↗

Variance and bias confidence criteria for ERA modal parameter identification

For the ERA system identification algorithm, perturbation methods are used to develop expressions for variance and bias of the identified modal parameters. Based on the statistics of the measurement noise, the variance results serve as confidence criteria by indicating how likely the true parameters are to lie within any chosen interval about their identified values. This replaces the use of expensive and time-consuming Monte Carlo computer runs to obtain similar information. The bias estimates help guide the ERA user in his choice of which data points to use and how much data to use in order to obtain the best results, performing the trade-off between the bias and scatter. Also, when the uncertainty in the bias is sufficiently small, the bias information can be used to correct the ERA results. In addition, expressions for the variance and bias of the singular values serve as tools to help the ERA user decide the proper modal order.

Longman, Richard W.↗

Isotopic composition of the anomalous low energy cosmic ray nitrogen and oxygen

The isotopic composition of the enhanced fluxes of cosmic ray nitrogen and oxygen observed below 30 MeV/nuc is of interest, whether the nuclei are a sample from some nearby galactic source region that is underabundant in carbon, or a sample of the neutral interstellar medium. Enhanced fluxes in the 6 to 12 MeV/nuc energy interval were measured over a two year period with the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer on IMP-7. The observed low-energy nitrogen and oxygen nuclei are predominantly N-14 and O-16, with upper limits (84% confidence level) of N-15/N below 0.26, O-17/0 below 0.13, and O-18/0 below 0.12 for other isotopes in the 6-12 MeV/nuc energy interval. The implications of these results for the origin of the enhanced nitrogen and oxygen fluxes are discussed.

Mewaldt, R. A.↗

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters from the T2K experiment using $$3.6\times 10^{21}$$ protons on target

Abstract The T2K experiment presents new measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters using $$19.7(16.3)\times 10^{20}$$ 19.7 ( 16.3 ) × 10 20 protons on target (POT) in (anti-)neutrino mode at the far detector (FD). Compared to the previous analysis, an additional $$4.7\times 10^{20}$$ 4.7 × 10 20 POT neutrino data was collected at the FD. Significant improvements were made to the analysis methodology, with the near-detector analysis introducing new selections and using more than double the data. Additionally, this is the first T2K oscillation analysis to use NA61/SHINE data on a replica of the T2K target to tune the neutrino flux model, and the neutrino interaction model was improved to include new nuclear effects and calculations. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses are presented, including results on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 and the impact of priors on the $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}$$ δ CP measurement. Both analyses prefer the normal mass ordering and upper octant of $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}$$ sin 2 θ 23 with a nearly maximally CP-violating phase. Assuming the normal ordering and using the constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 from reactors, $$\sin ^2\theta _{23}=0.561^{+0.021}_{-0.032}$$ sin 2 θ 23 = 0 . 561 - 0.032 + 0.021 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\varDelta {}m^2_{32}=2.494_{-0.058}^{+0.041}\times 10^{-3}~\text {eV}^2$$ Δ m 32 2 = 2 . 494 - 0.058 + 0.041 × 10 - 3 eV 2 using constant $$\varDelta \chi ^{2}$$ Δ χ 2 intervals. The CP-violating phase is constrained to $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=-1.97_{-0.70}^{+0.97}$$ δ CP = - 1 . 97 - 0.70 + 0.97 using Feldman–Cousins corrected intervals, and $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}}=0,\pi $$ δ CP = 0 , π is excluded at more than 90% confidence level. A Jarlskog invariant of zero is excluded at more than $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ credible level using a flat prior in $$\delta _{\textrm{CP}},$$ δ CP , and just below $$2\sigma $$ 2 σ using a flat prior in $$\sin \delta _{\textrm{CP}}.$$ sin δ CP . When the external constraint on $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}$$ sin 2 θ 13 is removed, $$\sin ^2\theta _{13}=28.0^{+2.8}_{-6.5}\times 10^{-3},$$ sin 2 θ 13 = 28 . 0 - 6.5 + 2.8 × 10 - 3 , in agreement with measurements from reactor experiments. These results are consistent with previous T2K analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimal checkpointing of real-time tasks

Analytical models for the design and evaluation of checkpointing of real-time tasks are developed. First, the execution of a real-time task is modeled under a common assumption of perfect coverage of on-line detection mechanisms (which is termed a basic model). Then, the model is generalized (to an extended model) to include more realistic cases, i.e., imperfect coverages of on-line detection mechanisms and acceptance tests. Finally, an optimal placement of checkpoints is determined to minimize the mean task execution time while the probability of an unreliable result (or lack of confidence) is kept below a specified level. In the basic model, it is shown that equidistant intercheckpoint intervals are optimal, whereas this is not necessarily true in the extended model. An algorithm for calculating the optimal number of checkpoints and intercheckpoint intervals is presented with some numerical examples for the extended model.

Shin, Kang G.↗

A comment on the suspected solar neutrino -- solar activity connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (namely, solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (namely, solar particles), based on the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the chi-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Conical-Domain Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The conical-domain model is a computational model, now undergoing development, for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Relative to the standard ionospheric delay model described below, the conical-domain model offers improved accuracy. In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere is the largest source of error for single-frequency users of GPS. Because ionospheric signal delays contribute to errors in GPS position and time measurements, satellite-based augmentation systems (SBASs) have been designed to estimate these delays and broadcast corrections. Several national and international SBASs are currently in various stages of development to enhance the integrity and accuracy of GPS measurements for airline navigation. In the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the United States, slant ionospheric delay errors and confidence bounds are derived from estimates of vertical ionospheric delay modeled on a grid at regularly spaced intervals of latitude and longitude. The estimate of vertical delay at each ionospheric grid point (IGP) is calculated from a planar fit of neighboring slant delay measurements, projected to vertical using a standard, thin-shell model of the ionosphere. Interpolation on the WAAS grid enables estimation of the vertical delay at the ionospheric pierce point (IPP) corresponding to any arbitrary measurement of a user. (The IPP of a given user s measurement is the point where the GPS signal ray path intersects a reference ionospheric height.) The product of the interpolated value and the user s thin-shell obliquity factor provides an estimate of the user s ionospheric slant delay. Two types of error that restrict the accuracy of the thin-shell model are absent in the conical domain model: (1) error due to the implicit assumption that the electron density is independent of the azimuthal angle at the IPP and (2) error arising from the slant-to-vertical conversion. At low latitudes or at mid-latitudes under disturbed conditions, the accuracy of SBAS systems based upon the thin-shell model suffers due to the presence of complex ionospheric structure, high delay values, and large electron density gradients. Interpolation on the vertical delay grid serves as an additional source of delay error. The conical-domain model permits direct computation of the user s slant delay estimate without the intervening use of a vertical delay grid. The key is to restrict each fit of GPS measurements to a spatial domain encompassing signals from only one satellite. The conical domain model is so named because each fit involves a group of GPS receivers that all receive signals from the same GPS satellite (see figure); the receiver and satellite positions define a cone, the satellite position being the vertex. A user within a given cone evaluates the delay to the satellite directly, using (1) the IPP coordinates of the line of sight to the satellite and (2) broadcast fit parameters associated with the cone. The conical-domain model partly resembles the thin-shell model in that both models reduce an inherently four-dimensional problem to two dimensions. However, unlike the thin-shell model, the conical domain model does not involve any potentially erroneous simplifying assumptions about the structure of the ionosphere. In the conical domain model, the initially four-dimensional problem becomes truly two-dimensional in the sense that once a satellite location has been specified, any signal path emanating from a satellite can be identified by only two coordinates; for example, the IPP coordinates. As a consequence, a user s slant-delay estimate converges to the correct value in the limit that the receivers converge to the user s location (or, equivalently, in the limit that the measurement IPPs converge to the user s IPP).

Sparks, Lawrence↗

Creation of the VADER Code in SCALE [Abstract]

The VADER (Validation Analysis Data Evaluation Resource) is a new module in SCALE 6.3 that has been derived from the legacy USLSTATS program. VADER is a tool that allows the determination of bias and bias uncertainty for criticality safety computational methods. The older USLSTATS program, written in Java, existed outside of SCALE and provided tools to calculate only the confidence band with administrative margin (sometimes called USL-1) and the single-sided uniform width closed interval (USL-2). For normality testing it only offered a crude chi- squared normality test that had no user-configurable options and presented a simple pass/no-pass functionality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scale Invariance of Hot Spot Formation in TATB High Explosives

Shock-induced detonation of insensitive high explosives based on 1,3,5-triamino-2,4,6-trinitrobenzene starts with formation of hot spots at microstructural defects but has eluded atomistic modeling treatment at micron length scales. To this end, we performed multimicron scale all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of hot spots that form during the collapse of cylindrical pores with diameters between 10 and 300 nm. Our MD simulations show that hot spots formed at pores larger than 20 nm exhibit temperature fields with scale-invariant features for sizes up to at least 300 nm. Through a continuum-based grain-scale modeling framework, we span and extend beyond the size scales currently accessible to MD and find that hot spot scale invariance is a general feature that arises when the mechanical strength is insensitive to strain rate. Finally, our results demonstrate the applicability of all-atom MD to simulate the complicated dynamical evolution of micron-sized systems and bolster confidence in insights from MD simulations of materials that exhibit strength with negligible rate dependence over the relevant intervals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗