SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Change detection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2008

Effects of hand soldering MIL-PRF 55365 tantalum capacitors

Different values of MIL-PRF-55365 tantalum capacitors were subjected to three different types of soldering conditions— Convection Reflow, JPL Standard Hand Soldering, and Optimized Hand Soldering. The electrical parameters for a large number of capacitors of each value were measured before and after thermal soldering stress. The results indicate that tantalum capacitors subjected to convection reflow conditions experience detectable changes in electrical parameters; capacitors subjected to hand solder conditions show reduced changes in electrical parameters when compared to the reflow samples. Optimized hand solder conditions are shown to have a minimal effect on electrical parameters.

Sheldon, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS1993

Automated Inspection for Remote Telerobotic Operations

This paper reports on automated inspection techniques being researched and developed for surface inspection of remote space platforms. The unique problems of performing visual telerobotic inspection in space are identified, An image differencing method to detect changes to surfaces over a period of time is presented together with a scale-space technique for flaw identification. Examples from a laboratory mockup of space platform modules are presented to illustrate the results.

inspection↗

NASA NTRS2018

Design Principles for Smallsat SARs

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is by now a mature remote sensing technique to obtain spatially-resolved radar measurements of terrain. Currently, SAR image data are readily available from an ever-expanding multitude of SAR satellites in Earth orbit. Many spaceborne SAR systems currently in use or planned for the near-term are multifunctional: their designs tend to maximize the menu of image modes available to the end user. They also follow fairly conventional design principles, laid down decades ago, that lead almost inevitably to large antennas and even larger spacecraft. This raises the question: how does one go about designing a SAR system that fits in a Smallsat (<200 kg) form factor? The design principles for Smallsat SARs outlined in this paper have been developed over a twenty-year period in architecting Earth-orbiting SARs such as NASA/JPL’s NISAR and ESA’s Biomass mission, as well as planetary SAR mission concepts. Example mission concepts following this approach will be presented at the end of the paper. These include an S-Band Smallsat geodetic constellation to measure surface deformation, as called for by the 2018 National Academy Decadal Survey for Earth Observation from Space. Another example is a Ka-band cubesat-sized system designed to detect changes on Earth’s surface.

Freeman, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS2020

COSMIC: Content-based Onboard Summarization to Monitor Infrequent Change

Interplanetary exploration occurs at vast distancesthat severely limit communication bandwidth to spacecraft exploringother planets. It is possible to collect much morescientific data than can ever be downlinked given current communicationcapabilities. Therefore, we are developing a systemcalled COSMIC (Content-based Onboard Summarization toMonitor Infrequent Change) that will opportunistically analyzedata onboard a Mars orbiter to alert scientists when meaningfulchanges have occurred. COSMIC will allow future spacecraftto continuously collect data to search for rare, transient phenomenasuch as fresh impacts or seasonally changing polarlandforms under a constrained downlink budget. In this paper,we describe the overall goals and architecture of COSMIC,plans to enable specific scientific studies, label acquisition toenable supervised approaches to surface landform classification,a new machine learning evaluation framework for analyzingthe trade-offs between classifier accuracy and computationalrequirements, and lessons learned about constraints that COSMICwill face operating onboard a spacecraft. In particular, wediscuss design considerations surrounding computational andstorage constraints, change detection strategies, and localizingdetected landforms of interest within a global coordinate frame.Finally, we describe challenges and open research questions thatmust be addressed prior to deploying COSMIC.

Trockman, Asher↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Large Footprint of Small-scale Artisanal Gold Mining in Ghana

Gold mining has played a significant role in Ghana's economy for centuries. Regulation of this industry has varied over time and while industrial mining is prevalent in the country, the expansion of artisanal mining, or Galamsey has escalated in recent years. Many of these artisanal mines are not only harmful to human health due to the use of Mercury (Hg) in the amalgamation process, but also leave a significant footprint on terrestrial ecosystems, degrading and destroying forested ecosystems in the region. In this study, the Landsat image archive available through Google Earth Engine was used to quantify the total footprint of vegetation loss due to artisanal goldmines in Ghana from 2005 to 2019 and understand how conversion of forested regions to mining has changed over a decadal period from 2007 to 2017. A combination of machine learning and change detection algorithms were used to calculate different land cover conversions and the timing of conversion annually. Within the study area of southwestern Ghana, our results indicate that approximately 47,000 ha (⨦2218 ha) of vegetation were converted to mining at an average rate of ~2600 ha yr−1. The results indicate that a high percentage(~50%) of this mining occurred between 2014 and 2017. Around 700 ha of this mining occurred within protected areas as mapped by the World Database of Protected Areas. In addition to deforestation, increased artisanal mining activity in recent years has the potential to affect human health, access to drinking water resources and food security. This work expands upon limited research into the spatial footprint of Galamseyin Ghana, complements mapping efforts by local geographers, and will support efforts by the government of Ghana to monitor deforestation caused by artisanal mining.

Abigail Barenblitt↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communicating Metrics of Land Surface Temperature Variability Using Multi-sensor Machine Learning

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Further, time series clustering approaches are examined with the objective of identifying key indicators of change in diurnal cycling and extremes on a continental scale. Communicating LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Duffy↗

NASA NTRS2021

ICESat-2 Early Mission Synopsis and Observatory Performance

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimetry System (ATLAS) onboard the NASA Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is the newest and most recent Earth observing satellite for global elevation studies. The primary objectives for ICESat-2 follow that of its predecessor, ICESat, and focus on providing cryospheric measurements to determine ice sheet mass balance, and monitor both sea ice thickness and extent. However, the global observations support secondary science objectives such as biomass estimation, inland water elevation, sea state height and aerosol concentrations. In all, ATLAS measurements support 7 along-track geophysical products with multiple gridded products to provide regional and global change detection for seasonal and annual cycles. Since the launch of ICESat-2, the instrument has operated nominally and collected more than a trillion measurements. This paper provides an overview of the mission, a description of the operational components that support the altimeter products for science discovery and on-orbit observatory performance.

Lori Magruder↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LEO Sensor to GEO Sensor Algorithm Transfer Models for Land Surface Temperature

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Communicating diurnal LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Marie Duffy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unlocking the Mysteries of the Moon’s Shadowed Regions

The Moon poles host large quantities of water-ice deposits in the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), which are vital for enabling sustainable human space exploration, making these regions high-priority targets for upcoming Artemis missions [1]. Unfortunately, today, the best available orbital lunar imagery [2, 3] lacks the meter-scale resolution and signal needed to understand the geomorphology and trafficability of PSRs, complicating the planning and execution of future missions seeking to explore PSRs. We have developed an image enhancement tool called HORUS (Hyper-effective nOise Removal Unet Software) [4, 5], designed to enhance LRO Narrow-Angle Camera (NAC) optical low-light imagery of permanently shadowed regions by effectively removing the CCD-related, photon, and other residual noises that corrupt the images. The tool is composed of two deep learning neural networks trained on environmental metadata and real and synthetic imagery, the latter generated by a physical noise model (LROC). We demonstrated that HORUS effectively produces low-noise, high-resolution images (~1.5m/px), achieving a 5 to 10x improvement over existing long-exposure images of PSRs. HORUS allows scientists and engineers to identify geomorphic features (e.g., craters and boulders) in shadowed regions as small as 3 meters across as well as to peek inside of small shadowed regions, for the first time. The tool was deployed and thoroughly validated for NASA's VIPER mission [6], where it was applied to 20 candidate target regions across the lunar South Pole. Additionally, we conducted different approaches to validate the resulting HORUS-processed images. With HORUS denoised images, VIPER scientists can increase their confidence on what surface features (previously unseen) exist in the shadowed regions, helping them plan rover traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1) In this manuscript, we will describe how VIPER scientists are utilizing HORUS denoised images to extract new information from the terrain and increase their confidence in what surface features exist in the shadowed regions. In combination with other high-resolution images and digital elevation maps, HORUS images are helping the team analyze potential lading and science sites, as well as planning traverses more safely and efficiently (e.g., Fig. 1). Additionally, we will describe how HORUS tool unlocks a broad range of scientific and exploration applications to other Artemis and CPLS missions to the lunar poles, including (but not limited to) geomorphic analysis, change detection, surface hazard detection, and terrain relative navigation.

artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2022

File Specification for MERRA-2 Climate Statistics Products

The Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains a wealth of information that can be used for weather and climate studies. By combining the assimilation of observations with a frozen version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a global analysis is produced at an hourly temporal resolution spanning from January 1980 through present (Gelaro et al., 2017). It can be difficult to parse through a multidecadal dataset such as MERRA-2 to evaluate the interannual variability of weather that occurs on a daily timescale, let alone determine the occurrence of an extreme weather event. Furthermore, it was recognized that standard metrics were needed to evaluate climate change among climate models and international research efforts. As a result of these concerns, the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) developed a set of indices that represent the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events using a daily time series of 2-m air temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Alexander et al., 2016). These indices were used as a basis to comprise a list of fields that represent daily extreme temperature and precipitation events, heatwaves, multi-day precipitation, as well monthly percentile statistics from the MERRA-2 dataset. Also included in this data product is a climatological long term mean and standard deviation representing the interannual variability on a monthly timescale.

MERRA-2↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Head-Trunk Coordination Measures for Monitoring Postflight Sensorimotor Readaptation Strategies

During exploration missions, individual health assessments will be required to account for variability in neurosensory adaptation and task readiness for the initial extravehicular activities (EVAs). Previous research has identified postflight vestibular alterations and disruptions in head-trunk coordination after both short and long duration spaceflight missions. Astronauts were found to minimize head angular displacement and utilize a consistent forward head tilt theorized as a compensatory approach to stabilize the cephalic system and reduce motion sickness during readaptation to Earth’s gravity. Further, anecdotal self-reports from Shuttle crewmembers stated that pitch and side-to-side head movements immediately post-landing typically resulted in perceived angular self-motion. Notable disruptions also occur upon arrival in orbit, with astronauts choosing waist rotation rather than head movements during dynamic tasks. It is thought that the underlying sensorimotor disruptions may contribute to motion sickness in space and upon landing, postflight gait dysfunction, and inaccurate spatial orientation when performing daily tasks. To better characterize microgravity-induced sensorimotor adaptations, it is important to develop measures and monitoring tools that have high sensitivity in detecting changes in head-trunk coordination.

H M Weiss↗

NASA NTRS2023

Capitol Reef Ecological Conservation: Mapping Vegetation Functional Groups to Inform Invasive Vegetation Management, Ecological Conservation and Restoration in Capitol Reef National Park

Invasive exotic plant (IEP) species have been found within the park boundaries of Capitol Reef National Park (CARE) in Utah. Currently, remotely sensed datasets such as the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have been used to investigate IEP species within the park, but validation of the national RAP program is necessary for informing decisions at a local scale. CARE seeks a remote monitoring solution that can precisely target managerial efforts within the park’s challenging terrain and hard-to-reach locations. To fulfill this objective, we harnessed Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery and leveraged Random Forest (RF) modeling to generate classification maps characterizing vegetation functional groups for 2013 and 2022 within the park. Subsequently, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Idrisi TerrSet facilitated the production of a predicted classification map for 2033. The team also devised an annual grass probability map to accentuate areas impacted by exotic grasses. A comparative assessment between the RF classification map and the RAP map for 2022 revealed an overall agreement of 47.41%, with disparities primarily arising from differences in bare soil and shrub areas. Significantly, the 2022 RF-generated classification map showcased an impressive overall accuracy of 92.17%. In short, the probability map, the land cover change detection spanning 2013 to 2022, and the forecasting of observed trends into the future aids in the evaluation of invasive plant impacts and facilitation of CARE’s preparedness for potential ecological disturbances. Notably, in comparison to the RAP, the RF classification method generates functional group maps that are more representative of the study area.

Vanchy Li↗

NASA NTRS2024

The Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka as Suitable Terrestrial Analogs Within the AVENGERS Initiative: An Opportunity for In-Situ Operational Tests for Future Landing Venus Missions

The next decade will see the return to Venus thanks to a number of missions which have been recently selected and proposed for launch. The Roscosmos Venera-D mission, along with the NASA DAVINCI, NASA VERITAS, ESA EnVision, the ISRO Shukrayaan-1, and the CNSA VOICE missions will open a new era for the exploration of the Earth’s hellish twin planet. The next missions to Venus should be able to shed new light on the science questions such as: a) whether the volcanic activity on this planet is locally constrained, or volcanism acts on a global scale, b) the rate of the present-day volcanic activity, and c) the style of volcanism on Venus, whether it is predominantly effusive, or the occurrence of local episodes of pyroclastic volcanism is also possible. In preparation for the future missions to Venus, the Analogs for VENus’ Geologically Recent Surfaces (AVENGERS) initiative will select and analyze a number of active terrestrial volcanoes as suitable analogs for the identification and analysis of active volcanism on Venus. Among the future missions to Venus, the Roscosmos Venera-D is the only one to be equipped with a lander which will analyze the elemental and mineralogical composition of the surface. As the young topographic rises (areas characterized by recent volcano-tectonic activity) on Venus are being proposed as one of the possible terrain types for the Venera-D landing, it is crucial to look for volcanic areas on Earth where to perform operational tests such as surface drilling and in-situ elemental composition analysis. To this regard, we propose here the analysis of the active volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia as a very suitable analog for the Venera-D mission, as well as for the analysis of surface change detection due to ongoing eruptions. The Kamchatka Peninsula is located on the eastern margin of the Eurasia plate, in proximity of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. The volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula are among the most active volcanoes of the world, making them a suitable terrestrial analog in the search for active volcanism on Venus. Moreover, the volcanoes of Kamchatka are characterized by pyroclastic activity. Since the previous Soviet Venera and Vega missions landed over areas which elemental composition was most likely consistent with that of tholeiitic basalts, performing operational tests over areas characterized by pyroclastic activity also offers the unique opportunity to provide us the tools to potentially interpret the diverse output given by landing over portions of the surface of Venus possibly characterized by explosive volcanic products. Finally, the frequent eruptions characterizing the volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula make them also a suitable terrestrial analog for the possible detection of ongoing eruptions on Venus by future missions, which can be achieved by comparing two (or more) radar images of the same volcano (and its surroundings) in two (or more) different moments of time.

Planetary Geology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Cloud Fraction Derived from a New Geostationary Satellite Cloud Retrieval Algorithm for CERES and Progress Towards Cross-platform Continuity

For over two decades The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has produced long-term records of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface irradiances for detecting changes in the Earth’s radiation budget and advancing understanding of how clouds contribute to those changes. Accurate characterization of the spatial and temporal distributions of clouds are a critical component for producing CERES datasets. The CERES Cloud Working Group (CWG) derives cloud properties from both geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sensors in order to provide complete global coverage at hourly temporal resolution. However, the use of multiple sensors to provide this spatiotemporal coverage throughout a long-term record presents some challenges, because the various sensors generally have different spectral band characteristics (e.g., spectral band width and response) and spatial resolution. These differences can result in spatial artifacts at the coverage boundary between two sensors or temporal artifacts when one sensor replaces another in the record. For the upcoming Edition 5 release of CERES products, the CWG is developing cloud retrieval algorithms which utilize only spectral bands common to most modern passive satellite radiometers and account for differences in spectral width and response. The goal with this approach is to provide global cloud properties for CERES with greater cross-platform consistency than the previous Edition 4 products and thus mitigate artifacts which are evident at the interface of two sensors. This study focuses on retrieval of total cloud fraction from various GEO sensors, and we use Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations to assess the accuracy of total cloud fraction derived from the various sensors. The Edition 5 cloud mask algorithm depends on estimates of cloud-free TOA spectral radiances to differentiate clear and cloudy conditions, and CALIOP is used to assess the accuracy of those estimates when cloud-free conditions are indeed observed.

CALIOP↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Anomalous Events in Electronic Health Records

Over the past decade, Health Information Technology (Health IT) has enabled an explosion in the amount of digital information stored in electronic health records (EHRs). According to recent studies, safety-related issues in healthcare can present themselves as anomalies in EHR data. Motivating examples of anomalous events in EHRs include clinical events related to invalid order cancellations or rejections, which may be initiated by clinical staff or automatic software routines in Health IT systems. Such events may be detected using anomaly detection or change point detection methods. In this paper, we explore the use of a forecasting approach to detect anomalies in EHR data using an online Support Vector Regression technique. Specifically, the proposed approach uses temporal frequency of activities in EHRs, coupled with dynamic robust confidence intervals, to characterize events as normal or anomalous. Once an event is characterized as an anomaly, our approach suppresses its effects in subsequent time intervals. The proposed approach shows encouraging results using real-world EHR data from the Veterans Affairs' corporate data warehouse

Pellett, Jordan J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Data Quality-Aware Framework to Reliably Forecast Photovoltaic Generation and Consumer Load for an Improved Resilience of Microgrids

Photovoltaic (PV) power and consumer load forecasting plays a critical role to ensure operational resilience of the electric grid. Most data-driven forecasting algorithms rely heavily on the continuous availability of good quality data for periodic training and validation. When deployed at the grid’s edge, prolonged disruptions to communications during extreme events degrade data quality. Factors such as missing observations, epistemic uncertainties, data drift, and concept drift are manifestations of data quality that impact the generalization of such field-deployed forecasting models. Currently, there exists no mechanism in the literature to dynamically switch between models under varying degrees of data quality as quantified by certain metrics for each factor highlighted above. This paper addresses this shortcoming by conceptually introducing a data qualityaware framework for reliable PV generation and consumer load forecasting. The framework’s design incorporates components of missing values, divergence tests, and continuous monitoring of generalization performance to detect changes in data quality caused by communications disruptions and trigger specific classes of forecasting models grouped under three use cases (UC1- UC3). As a first step towards validating this framework, real data collected from an actual field microgrid system is used to demonstrate the viability of the three use cases. Results show that the performance is the best in UC1 with an unadjusted R-square value of 0.954, followed by 0.939 for UC2 and 0.757 for UC3.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Conductivity Degradation in High Burnup U-Pu-Zr Fuel

Recent advancements in the characterization of irradiated U-Pu-Zr fuels have revealed complexities that challenge existing understanding of constituent redistribution. Traditionally, models have proposed three concentric regions within the fuel, each characterized by distinctive phases and porosity. However, through detailed analysis of high burnup U-Pu-Zr, we discovered the presence of four distinct constituent redistribution regions. Particularly novel is the observation of significant Pu redistribution, a previously unreported phenomenon that necessitates a reevaluation of current models. This work aims to delve deeper into these findings, seeking to correlate mesoscale measurements of thermal diffusivity and respective thermal conductivity with the phases present in each redistribution region. To achieve this objective, we employed mesoscale thermoreflectance methods using the unique, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) developed, Thermal Conductivity Microscope (TCM) at INL’s Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory. The TCM employs two tightly focused lasers: one for heating to generate periodic thermal waves in the substrate, and another spatially separated probe laser to detect changes in the optical reflectivity of the gold-coated substrate resulting from thermal wave diffusion. We conducted several thermal diffusivity measurements within each region of constituent redistribution of a U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pin cross section irradiated to 11 at. % burnup. The TCM measurement positions strategically aligned with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) lift-out locations previously collected from the fuel sample. Complementary microstructural analysis techniques such as optical and scanning electron microscopy (OM/SEM), electron probe microanalysis for chemical compositions, and TEM-based selective area electron diffraction (SAED) analysis for crystallographic insights into each phase were also utilized. This comprehensive approach allowed us to correlate local thermal diffusivity data with microstructural characteristics, enabling the computation of local thermal conductivity at each position. The significance of this contribution lies in its pioneering use of the TCM for ternary fuel mesoscale examination, shedding light on the previously overlooked effects of Pu redistribution on local thermal conductivity. By informing current models capturing constituent redistribution and heat transfer, our findings pave the way for more accurate predictions of metallic fuel performance. Moreover, this work sets the stage for future comparisons with similar TCM examinations on U-19Pu-10Zr fuels at ultra-low burnup, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of thermal property changes across different burnup levels. Ultimately, our study not only enriches our understanding of the thermophysical properties of individual redistribution regions within U-Pu-Zr fuel but also offers valuable insights for the design and operational parameters of proposed next-generation fast reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗