Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Capacity assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 595 records · Page 33

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

In 2020, the United States had a cumulative 19 gigawatts (GWdc) of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. A growing percentage of these solar installations are paired with battery storage, up from 0.1% in 2015 to 8.1% in 2020. Some states are considering or have already adopted policy mandates to require solar and storage systems. The cost of installing residential solar and battery storage projects remains a barrier to widespread adoption nationwide. For example, the cost of a typical residential retrofit solar and storage system ranges from $\$ 26,153$ to $\$ 37,909$, which is 38% to 100% higher than a standalone PV system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Relationship between Weather, Traffic and Delay Based on Empirical Methods

The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Air Traffic Control Response to Delays: A System Study of Newark International Airport

Airport delays are a significant problem in the United States air transportation system. Between 1999 and 2000 the number of flights delayed increased by 20 percent despite only a 0.4% increase in total operations. Newark International Airport (EWR), one of New York City's primary airports, is one of the airports in the United States most impacted by delays. Newark had the highest percentage of operations delayed in 1999, and was second only to LaGuardia Airport in 2000. Nearly 85% of delays at Newark are caused by adverse weather impacting an airport that may be characterized as having limited capacity and a very full schedule. Although Newark is heavily impacted by weather, delays have not increased significantly since 1998. This indicates that the airlines, air traffic control (ATC), and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey have successfully adapted. On June 29, 2000, a research team from MIT visited Newark airport to assess the effectiveness of any adaptations made, and to collect data on airline and ATC departure operations, and of the national and local weather affecting the airport. Airline and ATC personnel were also interviewed. Results of this study indicate that airspace capacity limitations downstream of the airport are a primary flow constraint at the airport, and that these constraints are the source of most surface delays. A number of tactical ATC responses to delays were examined, including the application of restrictions, re-routing with the help of the National Playbook, and the use of decision-aiding tools such as the Dynamic Spacing Program (DSP) and the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS). Improved interfacility communications and further utilization of runway 11-29 were identified as other tactical responses to delays, whilst the formation of the Air Traffic Control System Command Center and the New York Airspace redesign were identified as thekey strategic ATC responses to delays. Particularly the New York airspace redesign has great potential to reduce delays at the airport. Because delays at Newark are caused by downstream flow constraints, the responses at the airport can be applied to other airports as delays from downstream constraints increase. Such an increase in delays system wide from downstream constraints is inevitable as the system becomes more congested.

Evans, Antony D.↗

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Implementing the GEOSS Water Strategy: From Observations to Decisions

In 2014, The GEOSS Water Strategy – From Observations to Decisions was published and steps were taken to implement the Strategy’s recommendations. The Strategy highlighted priority areas where the application of Earth observations to water research and water management decisions would have significant scientific and societal benefits. This article reviews the implementation of the Strategy’s recommendations over the past eight years. After a review of the Strategy’s assessment of the needs for water observations and their applications, it then reviews actions taken in response to the Strategy’s recommendations in its four major themes: improved data acquisition for Essential Water Variables, research and product development, interoperability, and capacity development. It highlights significant achievements in the implementation of the Strategy including some motivated by factors beyond this Strategy, reviews actions taken by participating agencies and programs for each of the main themes and summarizes the remaining challenges in achieving the Strategy’s full implementation. The article not only is an update for the Water Community regarding the GEOSS Water Strategy, but it is also an example of how other communities could develop and promulgate a set of strategic recommendations, monitor progress, and carry out assessments of their effectiveness.

Earth observations↗

City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of mixed fleet potential for space station launch and assembly

Reductions in expected STS flight rates of the Space Shuttle since the 51-L accident raise concerns about the ability of available launch capacity to meet both payload-to-orbit and crew rotation requirements for the Space Station. In addition, it is believed that some phases of Station build-up could be expedited using unmanned launch systems with significantly greater lift capacity than the STS. Examined is the potential use of expendable launch vehicles (ELVs), yet-to-be-developed unmanned shuttle-derived vehicles (SDVs), and international launch vehicles for meeting overall launch requirements to meet Space Station program objectives as defined by the 1986 Critical Evaluation Task Force (CETF). The study concludes that use of non-STS transportation can help meet several important program objectives as well as reduce the total number of STS flights. It also finds, however, that reduction of Space Station-dedicated STS flights below 8 per year forces a reduction in Station crew size assuming the CETF 90 day crew stay time baseline and seriously impairs scientific utilization of the Station.

Deryder, L. J.↗

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Electrochemical Performance of Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes Enabled by a Graphite Conductive Additive

Cobalt-free cation-disordered rocksalt (DRX) cathodes are a promising class of materials for next-generation Li-ion batteries. Although they have high theoretical specific capacities (>300 mA h/g) and moderate operating voltages (~3.5 V vs Li/Li + ), DRX cathodes typically require a high carbon content (up to 30 wt %) to fully utilize the active material which has a detrimental impact on cell-level energy density. To assess pathways to reduce the electrode’s carbon content, the present study investigates how the carbon’s microstructure and loading (10–20 wt %) influence the performance of DRX cathodes with the nominal composition Li 1.2 Mn 0.5 Ti 0.3 O 1.9 F 0.1 . While electrodes prepared with conventional disordered carbon additives (C65 and ketjenblack) exhibit rapid capacity fade due to an unstable cathode/electrolyte interface, DRX cathodes containing 10 wt % graphite show superior cycling performance (e.g., reversible capacities ~260 mA h/g with 85% capacity retention after 50 cycles) and rate capability (~135 mA h/g at 1000 mA/g). Furthermore, a suite of characterization tools was employed to evaluate the performance differences among these composite electrodes. Overall, these results indicate that the superior performance of the graphite-based cathodes is largely attributed to the: (i) formation of a uniform graphitic coating on DRX particles which protects the surface from parasitic reactions at high states of charge and (ii) homogeneous dispersion of the active material and carbon throughout the composite cathode which provides a robust electronically conductive network that can withstand repeated charge–discharge cycles. Overall, this study provides key scientific insights on how the carbon microstructure and electrode processing influence the performance of DRX cathodes. Based on these results, exploration of alternative routes to apply graphitic coatings is recommended to further optimize the material performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Ion Exchange of Selected Group II Metals and Lead by Crystalline Silicotitanate and Competition for Cs Exchange Sites

A series of batch contact tests were conducted to evaluate the exchange behavior of Ba, Ca, Pb, and Sr onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST) in support of an expedited Cs removal and pretreatment system at the Hanford site. Binary Na/M 2+ and ternary Na/Cs/M 2+ isotherms were generated to understand selectivity, capacity, and competitive impact of each analyte on Cs uptake from a simple 1 M NaOH/4.6 M NaNO 3 simulant. Analyte loading from a 0.1 M NaOH/5.5 M NaNO 3 simulant was assessed to determine the effect of hydroxide concentration on binary Na/M 2+ isotherms. Finally, results from binary and ternary isotherms indicated that group II metals, and Pb do not impact CST performance toward CST at concentrations expected in Hanford tank waste supernate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grid Modeling and Hosting Capacity Analysis

An interface with the OpenDSS distribution grid simulator, facilitating users in calibrating and validating models. Additionally, three distinct tools have been developed: PV Hosting Capacity: This tool allows users to determine the additional amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation that can be integrated into the system without breaching operational constraints. EV Hosting Capacity: This tool focuses on identifying the capacity for incorporating extra electric vehicle (EV) load into the system without surpassing operational limitations. Project Impact Analysis Tool: This tool is designed to assess and report all potential grid violations associated with a specific project, providing valuable insights into its impact on the distribution grid.

Poudel, Shiva↗

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory Electric and Hybrid Vehicle System Research and Development Project, 1977-1984: A Review

The JPL Electric and Hybrid Vehicle System Research and Development Project was established in the spring of 1977. Originally administered by the Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) and later by the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Division of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the overall Program objective was to decrease this nation's dependence on foreign petroleum sources by developing the technologies and incentives necessary to bring electric and hybrid vehicles successfully into the marketplace. The ERDA/DOE Program structure was divided into two major elements: (1) technology research and system development and (2) field demonstration and market development. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has been one of several field centers supporting the former Program element. In that capacity, the specific historical areas of responsibility have been: (1) Vehicle system developments (2) System integration and test (3) Supporting subsystem development (4) System assessments (5) Simulation tool development.

Kurtz, D.↗

Cooling Rates of Lunar Volcanic Glass Beads

It is widely accepted that the Apollo 15 green and Apollo 17 orange glass beads are of volcanic origin. The diffusion profiles of volatiles in these glass beads are believed to be due to degassing during eruption (Saal et al., 2008). The degree of degassing depends on the initial temperature and cooling rate. Therefore, the estimations of volatiles in parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits depend on melt cooling rates. Furthermore, lunar glass beads may have cooled in volcanic environments on the moon. Therefore, the cooling rates may be used to assess the atmospheric condition in an early moon, when volcanic activities were common. The cooling rates of glasses can be inferred from direct heat capacity measurements on the glasses themselves (Wilding et al., 1995, 1996a,b). This method does not require knowledge of glass cooling environments and has been applied to calculate the cooling rates of natural silicate glasses formed in different terrestrial environments. We have carried out heat capacity measurements on hand-picked lunar glass beads using a Netzsch DSC 404C Pegasus differential scanning calorimeter at University of Munich. Our preliminary results suggest that the cooling rate of Apollo 17 orange glass beads may be ~12 K/min, based on the correlation between temperature of the heat capacity curve peak in the glass transition range and glass cooling rate. The results imply that the parental magmas of lunar pyroclastic deposits may have contained more water initially than the early estimations (Saal et al., 2008), which used higher cooling rates, 60-180 K/min in the modeling. Furthermore, lunar volcanic glass beads could have been cooled in a hot gaseous medium released from volcanic eruptions, not during free flight. Therefore, our results may shed light on atmospheric condition in an early moon.

Hui, Hejiu↗

Impact of Fill Factor on Electro-slag Remelting Operations

Vacuum induction melting (VIM), electro-slag remelting (ESR) and vacuum arc remelting (VAR) are all techniques used to make high quality ingots of complex chemistries. In some cases, all three are used, e.g., alloys for aerospace applications and increasingly those for fossil power applications under extreme conditions. Electroslag remelting operation is a complicated endeavor, dependent upon several factors including operating current, voltage, and geometry. A research scale 440 lb capacity ESR furnace was used to melt low carbon steel (1018 steel) electrodes of different diameters using various melt rates. This was used to assess melt parameters and sidewall and other quality aspects of the product ingots. These observations were compared to results from ESR modeling using MeltFlow-ESR. It was found that fill factor had a significant impact on operating voltage while current had a significant impact on melt rate. Ultimately, a combination of fill factor and power gave the best prediction of melt rate during steady state.

Jablonski, Paul↗

Copper and bismuth-based sorbent characterization in simulated iodine off-gas streams

The effective capture of volatile radioiodine, a fission product present in used nuclear fuel (UNF), is of paramount importance for development of used fuel reprocessing schemes to prevent release of radioiodine during unit operations and to meet regulatory standards for air emissions. A well-studied method for iodine capture in off-gas streams is the use of silver-functionalized zeolite phases (AgZ), which exploit chemisorption of I to Ag. Advances into other Ag-functionalized materials, including aerogels and metal organic frameworks (MOFs), are underway [1]. Additional metals with the capability to chemisorb iodine, including Cu, Bi, and Sn, [1] are being evaluated as alternatives to Ag for potential applicability to iodine management in off-gas systems. The design of novel functionalized sorbents with Cu and Bi, including composites with metal particles embedded in PAN substrates [2] and composites with metal sulfides embedded in PAN [3], is an ongoing area of study for improved iodine capture. Previously reported work on novel PAN-based metal sorbents has provided the synthesis, characterization, and iodine capture efficiency of this new class of sorbent. Specifically, the metal sulfide PAN composites are found to be easy to produce and reproduce, as well as having a high iodine loading potential under static conditions [3]. Due to the favorable testing previously performed with metal sulfide PAN composites, further testing into the performance of these composites under gas streams containing I2(g) in combination with NO2(g) and H2O(g) is needed. Humid streams of NO2(g) may arise from dissolver off-gas streams, when used fuel is dissolved in HNO3(aq) [4]. NO2(g) has been found to reduce AgZ sorption capacity for I because of oxidation of Ag, the chemisorbing agent, to Ag2O [5]. It follows that performance evaluation of novel sorbents under highly oxidizing conditions such as NO2(g) streams is critical. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine the effect of flowing NO2(g) and H2O(g) streams on iodine sorption capacity and sorbent performance. This work utilizes custom-built gas handling capabilities for sorbent exposure along with solid-state characterization techniques to assess the physical and chemical properties of sorbents before and after exposure.

copper, bismuth, iodine capture, iodine sorbent, p↗