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At least 595 records · Page 33

Granger Causality for prediction in Dynamic Mode Decomposition: Application to power systems

Here, the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) technique extracts the dominant modes characterizing the innate dynamical behavior of the system within the measurement data. For appropriate identification of dominant modes from the measurement data, the DMD algorithm necessitates ensuring the quality of the input measurement data sequences. On that account, for validating the usability of the dataset for the DMD algorithm, the paper proposed two conditions: Persistence of excitation (PE) and the Granger Causality Test (GCT). The virtual data sequences are designed with the hankel matrix representation such that the dimensions of the subspace spanning the essential system modes are increased with the addition of new state variables. The PE condition provides the lower bound for the trajectory length, and the GCT provides the order of the model. Satisfying the PE condition enables estimating an approximate linear model, but the predictability with the identified model is only assured with the temporal causation among data searched with GCT. The proposed methodology is validated with the application for coherency identification (CI) in a multi-machine power system (MMPS), an essential phenomenon in transient stability analysis. The significance of PE condition and GCT is demonstrated through various case studies implemented on 22 bus six generator system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The quest for efficient oxygenated fuels: Examining interactions between lubricant components and oxygenates

This work empirically evaluated oxygenated blendstock-lubricant compatibility using a novel but simple method. The reactivity or compatibility was evaluated via gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector (GC-FID) before and after heating for 2h at 150 °C, which would roughly mimic conditions encountered in the combustion chamber of an Spark Ignition (SI) or Compression-Ignition (CI) engine. Five oxygenate blendstocks spanning several functional groups and chain lengths (prenol, isoprenol, butyl acetate, isohexanol, polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers) were evaluated in a base fuel with nine variations of lubricant components of controlled concentrations, including fully formulated commercial lubricants. Baseline comparative examples were also generated, to decouple the effect of the oxygenate on the mixture, by heating only the base fuel with the lubricant component. Results demonstrate the relative compatibility between noted lubricants and oxygenates in base fuel upon heating. This was illustrated by minimal to no changes in the GC-FID traces. However, reactions of several of the chosen lubricants, especially Molybdenum di (2-ethylhexyl) phosphorodithioate (Molyvan L) and zinc dialkyldithiophosphate (ZDDP), with prenol and polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers blendstocks showed substantial side reactions compared to corresponding baseline examples. Control experiments without oxygenates but comprising the same lubricant components showed no change in the mixture with heating. We concluded the incompatibility is due to the oxygenate and not the components of the base fuel. This preliminary work is valuable in establishing trends as well as provide useful information when a new component is introduced in the fuel.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dolomites in hydrated fine-grained Antarctic micrometeorites: Effective tools for analyzing secondary processes

We report detailed transmission electron microscope (TEM) observations of carbonates from one hydrated fine-grained Antarctic micrometeorite (H-FgMM). These carbonates show the occurrence of complex chemical variations and microstructures that provide important evidence regarding the formation and evolution of rarely analyzed H-FgMMs. The chemical variations were identified at both micrometer and nanometer scales, indicating that these carbonates formed under localized fluid conditions that suggest a variable chemical microenvironment. Individual carbonates grew from isolated reservoirs of fluid. Moreover, these carbonates contain manganese amounts almost twice as high as those measured in CM chondrites but similar to those identified in CI chondrites. Their particular compositions indicate reducing and progressively evolving conditions in the fluid from which these carbonates precipitated, probably due to water consumption during phyllosilicates formation. In addition to the compositional variability, microstructural features are pervasive in these carbonates, similar to those described in heavily shocked meteorites indicating that these carbonates were probably modified during shock processes after their formation. Since carbonates are highly susceptible to shock metamorphism, we suggest that it is essential to investigate their structure in detail before interpreting the isotopic measurements related to the time of their formation. Additionally, associated with carbonates, ubiquitous phosphates were identified in the micrometeorite analyzed. Future studies of these mineral associations will provide us further insight into the formation and evolution of asteroids, especially since they were both identified in the surface materials of Ryugu and Bennu.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nickel-rich, volatile depleted iron meteorites: Relationships and formation processes

Ungrouped iron meteorites Tishomingo, Willow Grove, and Chinga, and group IVB iron meteorites, are Ni-rich. Similarities include enrichments of 10–100 × CI for some refractory siderophile elements, and equivalent depletions in more volatile siderophile elements. Superimposed on the overall enrichment/depletion trend, certain siderophile elements (P, W, Fe, Mo) are depleted relative to elements of similar volatility. All three ungrouped irons derive from parent bodies formed in the early Solar System. Willow Grove and Chinga are characterized by cosmic ray exposure corrected 182 W/ 184 W consistent with metal-silicate segregation on their parent bodies within 1–3 Myr of Solar System formation, within the age range determined for segregation of magmatic iron meteorite parent bodies, including group IVB irons. Tishomingo is characterized by a younger model age 4–5 Myr subsequent to Solar System formation, reflecting either late stage melting resulting from 26 Al decay, or an impact resetting. The discovery of stishovite in Tishomingo, indicating exposure to a minimum shock pressure of 8–9 GPa, is consistent with the latter. Stishovite in Tishomingo and chromite included in troilite-daubréelite in IVB irons allows oxygen isotopic composition comparison between these meteorites. Different mass independent oxygen isotopic compositions of IVB irons and Tishomingo indicate genetically distinct parent bodies. By contrast, mass independent Mo isotopic compositions overlap within analytical uncertainties, indicating a similar, carbonaceous chondrite (CC) type genetic heritage. Molybdenum and 183 W isotopic data for Chinga and Willow Grove indicate derivation from CC type parent bodies. Willow Grove shares Mo and 183 W isotopic compositions with the Ni-rich South Byron Trio (SBT) grouplet and the Milton pallasite. These Ni-rich meteorites likely formed in the same general nebular environment as other CC planetesimals, likely the outer Solar System. Highly siderophile element (HSE) abundances of Willow Grove and Tishomingo are similar to some IVB meteorites, consistent with formation by moderate degrees of fractional crystallization from initial metallic melts with low S and P, and modestly fractionated HSE. The comparable HSE abundances of Tishomingo and Willow Grove to some IVB irons, yet substantially higher Ni concentrations, indicate formation on parent bodies with lower bulk HSE abundances or HSE concentration in proportionally smaller volumes of metal. HSE abundances in Chinga are considerably lower than in IVB irons, highly fractionated, and processes responsible for these remain elusive. For IVB irons and these ungrouped irons, high temperature condensation likely dominated the enrichment and depletion of the refractory and volatile siderophile elements, respectively. Parent body degassing may have also played a role. Relative depletion of volatile siderophile elements is not, however, a universal feature of high-Ni meteorites. The SBT and Milton pallasite are Ni-rich, but less depleted in the more volatile siderophile elements. Nickel enrichment was likely driven by oxidation of Fe metal during parent body accretion or core segregation. Oxidation of the Tishomingo and Willow Grove parent bodies may have occurred at ~ IW + 1, indicated by relative Mo and W depletions due to metal/water reaction during differentiation. Late-stage reduction, indicated by the presence of Cr-bearing sulfides in Tishomingo and IVB irons, may have resulted from exhaustion of the oxidant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonequilibrium spherulitic magnetite in the Ryugu samples

Here, we have investigated several particles collected during each of two touchdowns of the Hayabusa2 spacecraft at the surface of the C-type asteroid 162173 Ryugu using various electron microscope techniques. Our detailed transmission electron microscopy study shows the presence of magnetite with various morphologies coexisting in close proximity. This is characteristic of CI chondrite-like materials and consistent with the mineral assemblages and compositions in the Ryugu parent body. We describe the microstructural characteristics of magnetite with different morphologies, which could have resulted from the chemical conditions (growth vs. diffusion rate) during their formation. Furthermore, we describe the presence of magnetites with a spherulitic structure composed of individual radiating fibers that are characterized by pervasive, homogeneously distributed euhedral to subhedral pores that have not been described in previous chondrite studies. This particular spherulitic structure is consistent with crystallization under nonequilibrium conditions. Additionally, the presence of a high density of defects within the magnetite fibers, the high surface/volume ratio of this morphology, and the presence of amorphous materials in several pores and at the edges of the acicular fibers further support their formation under nonequilibrium conditions. We suggest that the growth processes that lead to this structure result from the solution reaching a supersaturated state, resulting in an adjustment to a lower free energy condition via nucleation and rapid growth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of the earliest NC and CC planetesimals: Evidence from ungrouped iron meteorites

Isotope anomalies in meteorites reveal a fundamental dichotomy between Non-Carbonaceous- (NC) and Carbonaceous-type (CC) planetary bodies. Until now, this dichotomy is established for the major meteorite groups, representing about 36 distinct parent bodies. Ungrouped meteorites represent an even larger number of additional parent bodies, but whether they conform to the overall NC-CC dichotomy is unknown. Here, the genetics and chronology of 26 ungrouped iron meteorites are considered through nucleosynthetic Mo and radiogenic W isotopic compositions. Secondary cosmic ray-induced modifications of these isotope compositions are corrected using Pt isotope measurements on the same samples. We find that all of the ungrouped irons have Mo isotope anomalies within the range of the major meteorite groups and confirm the NC-CC dichotomy for Mo, where NC and CC meteorites define two distinct, subparallel s-process mixing lines. All ungrouped NC irons fall on the NC-line, which is now precisely defined for 41 distinct parent bodies. The ungrouped CC irons show scatter around the CC-line indicative of small r-process Mo heterogeneities among these samples. These r-process Mo isotope variations correlate with O isotope anomalies, most likely reflecting mixing of CI chondrite-like matrix, chondrule precursors, and Ca-Al-rich inclusions. This implies that CC iron meteorite parent bodies accreted the same nebular components as the later-formed carbonaceous chondrites. The Hf-W model ages of core formation for the ungrouped irons overlap with those of the iron meteorite groups from each reservoir and reveal a narrow age peak at ∼3.3 Ma after Ca-Al-rich inclusions for the CC irons. By contrast, the NC irons display more variable ages, including younger ages indicative of impact-induced melting events, which seem absent among the CC irons. This is attributed to the more fragile and porous nature of the CC bodies, making impact-induced melting on their surfaces difficult. The chemical characteristics of all iron meteorites together reveal slightly more oxidizing conditions during core formation for CC compared to NC irons. More strikingly, strong depletions in moderately volatile elements, typical of many iron meteorite parent bodies, predominantly occur among CC irons, for reasons that remain unclear at present.

Chondrite components↗

Mechanically strengthened heterogeneous Sm-Co sintered magnets

Samarium-cobalt sintered magnets offer excellent magnetic properties, thermal stability, and corrosion resistance. They are used in a variety of defense and civilian applications, especially when elevated operation temperatures (e.g., 200 ºC to 550 ºC) are required. However, the utilization of these materials is restricted by their brittleness. Improving their mechanical resilience would make them more cost-effective, efficient, and robust in decarbonization and other function-related applications while reducing the pressure on critical material supply chains. In this paper, we engineer a series of novel heterogeneous microstructures, such as laminated coarse grain (CG)/fine grain (FG) and core/shell CG/FG microstructures, to produce unprecedented combinations of superior mechanical and magnetic properties without altering the chemical compositions of the magnets or common heat treatment procedures. Further, a 60% flexural strength enhancement is obtained using heterogeneous Sm 2 (CoFeCuZr) 17 sintered magnets with little impact on their magnetic properties. The mechanically robust heterogeneous Sm-Co sintered magnets have a minor (e.g., less than 4.6%) reduction in the energy product (BH) max due to a slightly reduced squareness of the demagnetization curve, with no decrease in either the remanence (B r ) or the intrinsic coercivity (H ci ). The flexural strengths of these heterogeneous Sm-Co magnets depend on the volume ratios and mean grain sizes of the FG/CG regions, as well as their microstructural architectures. The fine-grained regions act as mechanical strengthening sites, which can be strategically used when designing the magnet for different applications. This technology is highly compatible with existing magnet manufacturing processes and thus can be adopted readily by the magnet industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Natural Gas and Lactic Acid Production from Waste Feedstocks

Producing fuels and chemicals from waste is considered economically favorable, due to low feedstock cost, and environmentally favorable, due to avoided emissions from conventional waste management practices. In this study, we evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction benefits of renewable natural gas (RNG) and lactic acid (LA) production from four types of wet waste feedstocks (wastewater sludge, food waste, swine manure, and fats, oil, and grease [FOG]) via anaerobic digestion (AD) and LA fermentation, respectively. RNG can be used as an alternative to fossil natural gas, while LA from waste feedstocks can displace conventional LA production pathways (mainly from corn via fermentation). Providing comprehensive life cycle GHG emissions of the combinations of waste feedstocks and products through different routes helps identify the GHG hotspots and show where emissions savings come from. The results show that the carbon intensities (CIs) of waste-derived RNG and LA are much lower than those of their counterparts. We estimated the life cycle GHG emissions for RNG to be between -146 and 27 g carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/MJ, much lower than the CI of fossil fuels. Waste-derived LA pathways also show substantially lower CIs, ranging from -4.2 to -1.4 kgCO2e/kg LA, compared to the CIs of LA from corn and corn stover (1.2 and 0.3 kgCO2e/kg LA, respectively). We will also discuss that the low CIs of waste-derived products can come from low yields leading to high emission credits. Thus, life cycle analysis results presented per weight of treated waste can be used to support decisions about which waste feedstocks and products are to be used for sustainable waste valorization. In addition, we found that monetary emission reduction credits can play an important role in driving waste valorization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Characterization of Spent Purolite A530E Resin with Implications for Long-Term Radioactive Contaminant Removal

Direct removal of pertechnetate anion (TcO4-) from the subsurface contaminated plumes at legacy nuclear weapons production sites, is effective remediation strategy to prevent their spread to adjacent aquifers but is also challenging because TcO4- is a trace component of the contaminated groundwater typically containing large access of other anionic constituents, such nitrate, sulfate, chloride and others. It can be achieved through ion exchange treatment using Purolite A530E resin which to date however has only been evaluated under laboratory conditions and many questions regarding its long-term operational performance remain. To address this need, here we report comprehensive characterization of the spent Purolite A530E resin which processed over 5.38x109 L of contaminated groundwater and successfully removed about 3.78 Ci of Tc-99 during four years of operation at the 200 West Pump & Treat facility at the US DOE Hanford site. This Tc-99 loading constitutes however only about 0.034% of the theoretical capacity of the resin which retained significant amounts of sulfate. Among other radioactive contaminants, small quantities of U-238, Co-60, and I-129 were retained by the resin. The total loading of iodine (combined 1-127 and I-129) on the spent resin exceeded that of Tc-99. To elucidate the mechanism of iodine retention, ion exchange behavior of iodide and iodate was investigated. Purolite A530E resin exhibited highly efficient uptake of iodide and only moderate affinity for iodate in accord with their Gibbs energy of hydration. Sorption isotherms for both anions obeyed Freundlich model.

Levitskaia, Tatiana G.↗

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Compression molding of anisotropic NdFeB bonded magnets in a polycarbonate matrix

Anisotropic bonded Nd 2 Fe 14 B (NdFeB) magnets in a polycarbonate (PC) binder matrix are fabricated using a compression molding process. The weight fractions (w.f.) of NdFeB in PC on the batch mixer are 20, 50, 75, 85 and 95% compared to the twin screw extruder with 20, 50 and 75% respectively. The density of the 95% batch mixed magnets fabricated was 5.34 g/cm 3 and the magnetic properties are, intrinsic coercivity H ci = 942.99 kA/m, remanence B r = 0.86 T, and energy product (BH) max = 120.96 kJ/m 3 . Furthermore, the measured tensile properties are in the range of 27-59 MPa, comparable to that of polyamide (PA), polyphenylene sulfide (PPS) bonded magnets and demonstrating potential for bonded magnet applications. Scanning electron microscopy showed that the onset of failure occurs in the magnetic particle- matrix interface. This study demonstrates that compression additive molding technique can be used to fabricate high performance NdFeB polycarbonate composite magnets with improved mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Preclinical studies of a PARP targeted, Meitner-Auger emitting, theranostic radiopharmaceutical for metastatic ovarian cancer

Advanced ovarian cancer currently has few therapeutic options. Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors bind to nuclear PARP and trap the protein-inhibitor complex to DNA. This work investigates a theranostic PARP inhibitor for targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy of ovarian cancer in vitro and PET imaging of healthy mice in vivo. Methods: [ 77 Br]RD1 was synthesized and assessed for pharmacokinetics and cytotoxicity in human and murine ovarian cancer cell lines. [ 76 Br]RD1 biodistribution and organ uptake in healthy mice were quantified through longitudinal PET/CT imaging and ex vivo radioactivity measurements. Organ-level dosimetry following [ 76/77 Br]RD1 administration was calculated using RAPID, an in-house platform for absorbed dose in mice, and OLINDA for equivalent and effective dose in human. Results: The maximum specific binding (B max ), equilibrium dissociation constant (K d ), and nonspecific binding slope (NS) were calculated for each cell line. These values were used to calculate the cell specific activity uptake for cell viability studies. The half maximal effective concentration (EC 50 ) was measured as 0.17 (95 % CI: 0.13–0.24) nM and 0.46 (0.13–0.24) nM for PARP(+) and PARP(–) expressing cell lines, respectively. The EC 50 was 0.27 (0.21–0.36) nM and 0.30 (0.22–0.41) nM for BRCA1(–) and BRCA1(+) expressing cell lines, respectively. When measuring the EC 50 as a function of cellular activity uptake and nuclear dose, the EC 50 ranges from 0.020 to 0.039 Bq/cell and 3.3–9.2 Gy, respectively. Excretion through the hepatobiliary and renal pathways were observed in mice, with liver uptake of 2.3 ± 0.4 %ID/g after 48 h, contributing to estimated absorbed dose values in mice of 19.3 ± 0.3 mGy/MBq and 290 ± 10 mGy/MBq for [ 77 Br]RD1 and [ 76 Br]RD1, respectively. Conclusion: [ 77 Br]RD1 cytotoxicity was dependent on PARP expression and independent of BRCA1 status. Finally, the in vitro results suggest that [ 77 Br]RD1 cytotoxicity is driven by the targeted Meitner-Auger electron (MAe) radiotherapeutic effect of the agent. Further studies investigating the theranostic potential, organ dose, and tumor uptake of [ 76/77 Br]RD1 are warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

A techno-economic assessment of carbon dioxide removal pathways via biochemical conversion of lignocellulose to biofuels and bioplastics

Biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) is a promising pathway to mitigate climate change via large scale removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). We modeled several fermentation technologies, producing a variety of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks, to understand their levelized cost of CO 2 removal under multiple scenarios. Lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accounted to provide cradle-to-grave estimates of carbon intensity (CI). We did not account for the avoided fossil CO 2 emissions from the use of biofuels in our CO 2 removal cost calculations, because avoided emissions do not contribute to CO 2 removal. The main products from the fermentation technologies we modeled include renewable diesel, ethanol, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and polyethylene (PE), with co-products including CO 2 , adipic acid, steam, and electricity. PE, depending on its end-of-life management, can serve as a form of biogenic carbon storage. PE has the potential to remove 1.2–1.5 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, whereas biofuels have the potential to remove 0.3–0.9 tCO 2 per dry t-biomass, indicating that PE production is a more efficient method of carbon removal. We quantify costs of CO 2 removal to be $\$$60 – $\$$675 per metric tCO 2 removed across the various fermentation pathways. Under the scenarios analyzed, bioplastic production from lignocellulosic biomass is a more cost-effective route to CO 2 removal than biofuel production, with costs of CO 2 removal via bioplastics being 50–90 % lower than that of biofuels. Future research should explore the potential benefits and drawbacks of expanding bioplastic production for large-scale CO 2 removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 µg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 µg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions is key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Liu, Song↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Moon, Mars and Minds: Evaluating Parkinson’s disease mortality among U.S. radiation workers and veterans in the million person study of low-dose effects

Background: Radiation is one of the most important stressors related to missions in space beyond Earth’s orbit. Epidemiologic studies of exposed workers have reported elevated rates of Parkinson’s disease. The importance of cognitive dysfunction related to low-dose rate radiation in humans is not defined. A meta-analysis was conducted of six cohorts in the Million Person Study (MPS) of low-dose health effects to learn whether there is consistent evidence that Parkinson’s disease is associated with radiation dose to brain. Materials and methods: The MPS evaluates all causes of death among U.S. radiation workers and veterans, including Parkinson’s disease. Systematic and consistent methods are applied to study all categories of workers including medical radiation workers, industrial radiographers, nuclear power plant workers, atomic veterans, and Manhattan Projects workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and at Rocky Flats. Consistent methods for all cohorts are used to estimate organ-specific doses and to obtain vital status and cause of death. Results: The meta-analysis include 6 cohorts within the MPS, consisting of 517,608 workers and 17,219,001 person-years of observation. The mean dose to brain ranged from 6.9 to 47.6 mGy and the maximum dose from 0.76 to 2.7 Gy. Five of the 6 cohorts revealed positive associations with Parkinson’s disease. The overall summary estimate from the meta-analysis was statistically significant based on 1573 deaths due to Parkinson’s disease. The summary excess relative risk at 100 mGy was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.05; 0.29). Conclusions: Parkinson’s disease was positively associated with radiation in the MPS cohorts indicating the need for careful evaluation as to causality in other studies, delineation of possible mechanisms, and assessing possible implications for space travel as well as radiation protection guidance for terrestrial workers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optical 14 C Tracing for Biological and Pharmaceutical Applications Using Two-Color Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy

Laser-based 14 C quantitation has been proposed as a more affordable, higher-throughput, table-top alternative to accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of a mid-IR 14 C detector based on two-color cavity ringdown spectroscopy (2C-CRDS) for low-level 14 C isotope tracing in biological studies. The 2C-CRDS technique quantifies the sample 14 C content by measuring the 14 CO 2 absorption signals from the combusted samples with mid-IR lasers. With 2C-CRDS, we previously demonstrated the most sensitive and accurate optical measurements of 14 CO 2 . The current detection sensitivity and quantitation accuracy of the instrument, at a few parts per quadrillion (where a quadrillion = 10 15 ) 14 C/C mole fraction, is competitive against AMS. Here, by applying the 2C-CRDS 14 C sensor to two applications relevant to 14 C-labeled biochemical analysis and pharmaceutical studies, we demonstrate sub-fCi level (where 1 fCi = 10 –15 Ci) quantitation of sample 14 C activity, with a minimum sample-size requirement of 3 mg of carbon. The current measurement throughput, ~25 min/sample, is largely limited by the sampling efficiency of the online combustion and CO 2 processing interface to the 2C-CRDS instrument. The possibility of a significantly improved measurement throughput of a few minutes per sample is suggested by the results of a flow-through 14 CO 2 sampling scheme. In conclusion, this improved measurement efficiency, combined with the relatively low cost and compact size of a 2C-CRDS sensor, could potentially revolutionize high-sensitivity 14 C tracing in biological, pharmaceutical, and clinical studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗