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At least 595 records · Page 33

Global Patterns of Tectonism on Titan from Mountain Chains and Virgae

This research is based on the exploration of tectonic patterns on Titan from a global perspective. Several moons in the outer solar system display patterns of surface tectonic features that imply global stress fields driven or modified by global forces. Patterns such as these are seen in Europa's tidally induced fracture patterns, Enceladus's tiger stripes, and Ganymede's global expansion induced normal fault bands. Given its proximity to Saturn, as well as its eccentric orbit, tectonic features and global stresses may be present on Titan as well. Titan displays possible tectonic structures, such as mountain chains along its equator (Radebaugh et al. 2007), as well as the unexplored dark linear streaks termed virgae by the IAU. Imaged by Cassini with the RADAR instrument, mountain chains near the equator are observed with a predominante east-west orientation (Liu et al. 2012, Mitri et al. 2010). Orientations such as these can be explained by modifications in the global tidal stress field induced by global contraction followed by rotational spin-up. Also, due to Titan's eccentric orbit, its current rotation rate may be in an equilibrium between tidal spin-up near periapsis and spin-down near apoapsis (Barnes and Fortney 2003). Additional stress from rotational spin-up provides an asymmetry to the stress field. This, combined with an isotropic stress from radial contraction, favors the formation of equatorial mountain chains in an east-west direction. The virgae, which have been imaged by Cassini with both the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) instruments, are located predominately near 30 degrees latitude in either hemisphere. Oriented with a pronounced elongation in the east-west direction, all observed virgae display similar characteristics: similar relative albedos as the surrounding terrain however darkened with an apparent neutral absorber, broken-linear or rounded sharp edges, and connected, angular elements with distinct, linear edges. Virgae imaged during northern latitude passes are oriented with their long dimensions toward Titan's antiSaturn point. If the virgae are of tectonic origin, for instance if the turn out to be i.e. grabens, they could serve as markers to Titan's global stress field. Using them in this way allows for a mapping of global tectonic patterns. These patterns will be tested for consistency against the various sources of global stress and orientations of mountain chains. By determining what drives Titan's tectonics globally, we will be able to place Titan within the context of the other outer planet icy satellites.

Cook, C.↗

Effects of Hydrogen Bonding and Molecular Chain Flexibility of Substituted n-Alkyldimethylsilanes On Impact Ice Adhesion Shear Strength

The effects of hydrogen bonding and molecular flexibility upon ice adhesion shear strength were investigated using aluminum substrates coated with substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes. The location of the chemical group substitution was on the opposing end of the linear n-alkyl chain with respect to silicon. Three hydrogen-bonding characteristics were evaluated: 1) non-hydrogen bonding, 2) donor/acceptor, and 3) acceptor. Varying the length of the n-alkyl chain provided an assessment of molecular chain flexibility. Coated and uncoated aluminum surfaces were characterized by receding water contact angle and surface roughness. Ice adhesion shear strength was determined in the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand facility from -16 to -8°C that simulated aircraft in-flight icing conditions within the FAR Part 25/29 Appendix C icing envelope. Surface roughness of the coatings was similar allowing for comparison of the test results. An adhesion reduction factor, based on the ice adhesion shear strength data with respect to uncoated aluminum obtained at the same temperature, was calculated to compare the data. The results revealed complex interactions with impacting supercooled water droplets that were interdependent upon ice accretion temperature, surface energy characteristics of water and ice, hydrogen bonding characteristic of the substituent, and length of the n-alkyl chain. To aid in explaining the results, 1) changes in the surface energy component (i.e., non-polar and polar) values that water undergoes during its’ phase change from liquid to solid that arise from the freezing of impacting supercooled water droplets on the surface depended upon the temperature during accretion were taken into account and 2) the physical properties (i.e., water solubility and melting point) of small compounds analogous to the substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes used in this study were compared.

Smith, Joseph G.↗

O-Functionalized CNT Mediated CO Hydro-Deoxygenation and Chain Growth

Worldwide energy independence is reliant on the ability to leverage locally available resources for fuel production. Recently, syngas produced through gasification of carbonaceous materials provided a gateway to a host of processes for the production of various chemicals including transportation fuels. The basis of the production of gasoline and diesel-like fuels is the Fischer Tropsch Synthesis (FTS) process: A catalyzed chemical reaction that converts a mixture of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H 2 ) into long chain hydrocarbons. Until now, it has been argued that only transition metal catalysts (usually Co or Fe) are active toward the CO hydrogenation and subsequent chain growth in the presence of hydrogen. In this paper, we demonstrate that carbon nanotube (CNT) surfaces are also capable of hydro-deoxygenating CO and producing long chain hydrocarbons similar to that obtained through the FTS but with orders of magnitude higher conversion efficiencies than the present state-of-the-art FTS catalysts. We have used advanced experimental tools such as XPS and microscopy techniques to characterize CNTs and identify C-O functional groups as the active sites for the enhanced catalytic activity. Furthermore, we have conducted quantum Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations to confirm that C-O groups (inherent on CNT surfaces) could indeed be catalytically active towards reduction of CO with H 2 , and capable of sustaining chain growth. The DFT calculations have shown that the kinetically and thermodynamically feasible route for CO insertion and hydro-deoxygenation are different from that on transition metal catalysts. Experiments on a continuous flow tubular reactor with various nearly metal-free CNTs have been carried out and the products have been analyzed. CNTs functionalized by various methods were evaluated under different conditions. Reactor tests revealed that the hydrogen pre-treatment reduced the activity of the catalysts to negligible levels. Without the pretreatment, the activity for CO conversion as found to be 7 µmol CO/g CNT/s. The O-functionalized samples showed very activities greater than 85 µmol CO/g CNT/s with nearly 100% conversion. Analyses show that CO hydro-deoxygenation occurred at the C-O/O-H functional groups. It was found that while the products were similar to FT products, differences in selectivities were observed which, in turn, was a result of a different catalytic mechanism. Furthermore, these findings now open a new paradigm for CNT-based hydrogenation catalysts and constitute a defining point for obtaining clean, earth abundant, alternative fuels through the use of efficient and renewable catalyst.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analyzing Next-Generation Supply Chains Using the Materials Flows through Industry Tool

The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) tool is a supply chain modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. MFI was created to identify and analyze opportunities to reduce the energy and carbon intensities of the U.S. industrial sector (Hanes and Carpenter 2017). In this work, we present an overview of the MFI tool's structure and capabilities, as well as the results of using MFI to analyze a novel NREL-developed process to 'upcycle' PET plastic into higher-value composite materials (Rorrer et al. 2019). This process combines recycled PET (rPET) plastic with inputs that can be derived from biomass, including muconic acid, acrylic acid, and ethylene glycol, to chemically break down the plastic back to its monomers in a process called glycolization. Then, repolymerization and the application of fiberglass yields the valuable glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite, a performance material used in the manufacture of wind turbine blades, boat hulls, and other applications. This rPET-derived GFRP was found to have superior strength and fiberglass adhesion compared to conventional GFRP formulations. Our findings indicate that this GFRP production process, were it to be widely commercialized beyond its current lab-scale, could potentially reduce the fossil energy intensity of the GFRP supply chain by between 37% and 58% compared to the conventional method of GFRP manufacture from fossil-derived inputs. We also estimate potential supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions between 30% and 40% from this process. Scaling these GHG offset estimates up to annual GFRP production in the U.S. would be roughly equivalent to removing between 150,000 and 200,000 vehicles from U.S. roads. These ranges of impact estimates represent the range of differences associated with the various economic allocation methods we have assumed for the intensity contributions from the first life of the PET plastic. Following Shen et al. (2010), we derive economic allocation factors from the current price ratios of clear- and green-colored recycled PET plastic to virgin PET resin ('waste-valuation' approach) or assume them to be zero in a more simplistic allocation ('cutoff' approach). Future work involving the MFI modeling tool will also be discussed, including preliminary results comparing the energy intensity of conventional and bio-based nylons manufacturing. Attendees will also be encouraged to conduct MFI supply chain modeling of their own by requesting a user account on the MFI web application, which is freely available to the public at the following address: https://mfitool.nrel.gov.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

THE POTENTIAL FOR REUSE OF PRODUCED WATER IN THE CRITICAL MINERALS SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE POWDER RIVER BASIN OF WYOMING AND MONTANA

The Powder River Basin (PRB) Carbon Ore, Rare Earth, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) project is part of the Department of Energy sponsored CORE-CM initiative focused on domestic production of critical minerals and promoting economic development in traditionally fossil fuel producing basins. An important part of this project is regional assessment of waste streams and development of basinal strategies for waste stream reuse within the critical minerals (CM) supply chain. The availability of water for all parts of the CM supply chain is of particular concern in the arid mountain west. In the Wyoming PRB, average annual production of produced water (PW) by the oil and gas industry is more than 16 billion gallons (2015-2022). Through published data and engagement with industry partners, we conducted a preliminary investigation of PW in the PRB to understand volumes, quality, and the potential for use in the CM supply chain. PW was assessed for potential as a direct feedstock and for use in CM processing of a variety of conventional and unconventional feedstocks, including ore from the Bear Lodge Alkaline Complex, coal, and coal byproducts. Preliminary findings suggest that PRB PW contains significantly lower concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and lithium than would be considered economic at this time. For example, concentrations of REE+Sc measured in PRB PW are <1 ppb (DE-EE0007603), and only seven PRB PW samples reported in the USGS PW database had lithium concentrations ≥50 ppm. However, enrichment of CM in residual brine and sludge from PW evaporation and solidification treatment ponds may yield concentrations of interest over a pond lifetime and should be considered in future studies. Coal bed methane (CBM) PW accounted for 42% of all PW in the Wyoming PRB in 2022. Compared to non-CBM PW, PRB CBM water quality generally meets standards allowing surface discharge and reuse in local industries such as livestock. CBM PW may help to fill water needs within the CM supply chain. Understanding the distribution of CBM PW that is discharged versus reused will help develop basinal reuse strategies.

Jackson, Lily↗

The Magnox Clean-Up Programme - Integrating and Making Best Use of the Supply Chain - 16603

In 2010, the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) secured a funding settlement of British Pounds 2.5 Bn from the Government for the period to 2015 for the Magnox Care and Maintenance programme. This settlement was a reflection of the importance placed on discharging the decommissioning liability associated with the UK's first generation Magnox reactors. It also reflected the NDA's confidence in the Magnox Optimised Decommissioning Plan (MODP), which aimed to accelerate entry into Care and Maintenance and reduce the Magnox decommissioning liability by British Pounds 1.2 Bn. Despite the settlement, huge challenges remained if the MODP was to be delivered within the funding envelope. Essentially, the supply chain had to be able to participate in the delivery of the MODP and make the investment in skills and techniques required to minimise the threats and uncertainties remaining in the Programme. The Magnox Commercial and Supply Chain Strategy was, therefore, an integral part of the MODP. At the highest level, the Strategy involved: - Classifying and segregating procurements by risk and value - Moving the contracting philosophy from risk transfer to risk management - Focusing on relationships and results rather than activities and processes By aligning the supply chain to the MODP, Magnox was able to better organise itself to deliver against the MODP, to act on feedback from suppliers and enable a culture of 'Lead and Learn' to take root. Using feedback and learning from other organisations and applying these to contract management approaches improved project outcomes. In particular, learning from previous experience of dealing with Programme 'unknowns' increased the company's ability to control and improve on the overall Programme cost and schedule. The impact of the MODP was to reduce the Magnox baseline by over British Pounds 1.5 Bn and remove 34 reactor-years from the Care and Maintenance preparations period. This huge gain resulted from a range of technical, process and commercial improvements across the organisation. Perhaps the greatest achievement of the MODP and its supply chain strategy was to quantify and stabilise the Magnox Life-cycle scope and cost and enable the successful competition and transfer of the Management and Operating (M and O) contract in 2014 and lay the foundations for further cost-savings to the UK taxpayer. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Method for Understanding the Behaviour of Radioactive Decay Chains in Radiological Assessments - 19382

In many radiological groundwater pathway assessments, especially those where the assessment timescales of interest are relatively short (say a few thousand years or less), contributions to effective dose or radiological risk are dominated by radionuclides such as C-14, Cl-36 or I-129. Over longer timescales, additional radionuclides can also become key contributors to risk. In particular, members of the U-238 decay chain, notably Ra-226 and Pb-210, are likely to be key radionuclides. Other decay chains that can contribute significantly to dose or risk at times far into the future include Np-237 → U-233 → Th-229 and U-235 → Pa-231 → Ac-227. In this paper, a method is described for understanding decay chain behaviour in radiological assessments. The method uses a graphical approach in which the various modes of transport and decay in a system of connected compartments are represented as pathways between two nodes in a two-dimensional grid. Each pathway corresponds to a distinct transport and decay process. By so doing, the different transport and decay processes can be identified in a systematic way. The result is an algorithm for generating the contributions to effective dose or radiological risk without explicit solution of the transport equations. The method has been tested against numerical models and analytic solutions and found to give excellent agreement, while at the same time providing information about decay chain behaviour that would be difficult to obtain from a numerical assessment model. The power of the method is illustrated by applying it to some examples based on real repository concepts. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗

Two-Tower Quantum Matrix Chain Multiplication: Trading Qubits for Depth

Matrix chain multiplication -- computing $\mathcal{W} = M^{(0)}\cdots M^{(K-1)}$ where $M^{(k)} \in \mathbb{R}^{P_k \times P_{k+1}}$-- arises in scientific computing, machine learning, and graph analysis. Despite the importance of this problem, for chains of distinct matrices, the classical number of operations grows linearly with the chain length $K$ and polynomially in the matrix dimensions. We present \emph{Two-Tower Matrix Multiplication}, a quantum subroutine that encodes the product $\mathcal{W}$ of the $K$ matrices into a quantum state in circuit depth $\mathcal{O}(\max_{k} \mathrm{polylog} (P_k P_{k+1}))$, which is independent of~$K$ within the QRAM-based state-preparation model, whereas the qubit count is $\mathcal{O}\bigl(\sum_{k} \log P_k \bigr)$; the total gate count remains linear in $K$, so the gain is in the circuit depth. The construction interleaves state-preparation operators across two layers; within each layer, all operators act on disjoint registers and execute in parallel. This subroutine can be specialized for the chain-vector case, which computes the product of $K-1$ matrices applied to a vector. We prove the correctness of the subroutine for all $K$ and provide two implementations using the Qiskit and QCLAB frameworks. The subroutine is applicable to any downstream quantum algorithm that operates on a matrix encoded in the statevector, including norm estimation, graph-matrix powers, linear system solving, and quantum machine learning kernels.

Antonioli, Giacomo [Pisa U.] (ORCID:00090000668703↗

Chemical supply chain modeling for analysis of homeland security events

The potential impacts of man-made and natural disasters on chemical plants, complexes, and supply chains are of great importance to homeland security. To be able to estimate these impacts, we developed an agent-based chemical supply chain model that includes: chemical plants with enterprise operations such as purchasing, production scheduling, and inventories; merchant chemical markets, and multi-modal chemical shipments. Large-scale simulations of chemical-plant activities and supply chain interactions, running on desktop computers, are used to estimate the scope and duration of disruptive-event impacts, and overall system resilience, based on the extent to which individual chemical plants can adjust their internal operations (e.g., production mixes and levels) versus their external interactions (market sales and purchases, and transportation routes and modes). As a result, to illustrate how the model estimates the impacts of a hurricane disruption, a simple example model centered on 1,4-butanediol is presented.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spontaneously Broken Noninvertible Symmetries in Transverse-Field Ising Qudit Chains

Recent developments have revealed that symmetries need not form a group, but instead can be noninvertible. Here we use analytical arguments and numerical evidence to illuminate how spontaneous symmetry breaking of a noninvertible symmetry is similar yet distinct from ordinary, invertible, symmetry breaking. We consider one-dimensional chains of group-valued qudits, whose local Hilbert space is spanned by elements of a finite group 𝐺 (reducing to ordinary qubits when 𝐺=ℤ 2 ). We construct Ising-type transverse-field Hamiltonians with Rep⁡(𝐺) symmetry whose generators multiply according to the tensor product of irreducible representations (irreps) of the group 𝐺 . For non-Abelian 𝐺 , the symmetry is noninvertible. In the symmetry broken phase there is one ground state per irrep on a closed chain. The symmetry breaking can be detected by local order parameters but, unlike the invertible case, different ground states have distinct entanglement patterns. We show that for each irrep of dimension greater than one the corresponding ground state exhibits string order, entanglement spectrum degeneracies, and has gapless edge modes on an open chain—features usually associated with symmetry-protected topological order. Consequently, domain wall excitations behave as one-dimensional non-Abelian anyons with nontrivial internal Hilbert spaces and fusion rules. Our Letter identifies properties of noninvertible symmetry breaking that existing quantum hardware can probe.

1-dimensional spin chains↗

U.S. Offshore Wind Manufacturing and Supply Chain Development

This report seeks to provide an organized, analytical approach to identifying and bounding uncertainties around offshore wind manufacturing and supply chain capabilities; projecting potential component-level supply chain needs under three demand scenarios; and identifying key supply chain challenges and opportunities facing the future U.S. market and current suppliers of the nation’s landbased wind market.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Securing Digital Energy Infrastructure: Procurement, Contracting, and Supply Chain Risk Management Guidance

Recognizing the scale of this industry challenge, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Deployment Office (GDO) and Cybersecurity Energy Security & Emergency Response office have launched a multi-year BESS supply chain security initiative to identify consequence-driven approaches to addressing BESS supply chain security and provide resources to support prioritization of supply chain security efforts associated with the procurement of BESS equipment and services. This guide is one element of the supporting resources to be provided and sets forth a framework and guidance for procurement bidding, selection, risk analysis, and agreements stakeholders can implement to mitigate cybersecurity risks across the entirety of battery system component ecosystem, including the interconnected software and hardware required for control and monitoring BESSs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Cranberry Arabino-Xyloglucan and Pectic Oligosaccharides Induce Lactobacillus Growth and Short-Chain Fatty Acid Production

Numerous health benefits have been reported from the consumption of cranberry-derived products, and recent studies have identified bioactive polysaccharides and oligosaccharides from cranberry pomace. This study aimed to further characterize xyloglucan and pectic oligosaccharide structures from pectinase-treated cranberry pomace and measure the growth and short-chain fatty acid production of 86 Lactobacillus strains using a cranberry oligosaccharide fraction as the carbon source. In addition to arabino-xyloglucan structures, cranberry oligosaccharides included pectic rhamnogalacturonan I which was methyl-esterified, acetylated and contained arabino-galacto-oligosaccharide side chains and a 4,5-unsaturated function at the non-reducing end. When grown on cranberry oligosaccharides, ten Lactobacillus strains reached a final culture density (ΔOD) ≥ 0.50 after 24 h incubation at 32 °C, which was comparable to L. plantarum ATCC BAA 793. All strains produced lactic, acetic, and propionic acids, and all but three strains produced butyric acid. This study demonstrated that the ability to metabolize cranberry oligosaccharides is Lactobacillus strain specific, with some strains having the potential to be probiotics, and for the first time showed these ten strains were capable of growth on this carbon source. The novel cranberry pectic and arabino-xyloglucan oligosaccharide structures reported here combined with the Lactobacillus strains that can metabolize cranberry oligosaccharides and produce short-chain fatty acids, have excellent potential as health-promoting synbiotics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cybersecurity Supply Chain Risk Management: Forge Institute Presentation

In this talk, INL will discuss how to develop a cyber supply chain risk management program, to include assessment of vendor risk and applying appropriate mitigations. INL will discuss key risk factors and the challenges of securing supply chain in complex and dynamic vendor environments. Finally, INL will share example language that can be adopted in RFPs and procurement contracts to promote supply chain security.

battery energy storage system↗

Modular supply chain optimization considering demand uncertainty to manage risk

Supply chain under demand uncertainty has been a challenging problem due to increased competition and market volatility in modern markets. Flexibility in planning decisions makes modular manufacturing a promising way to address this problem. We report the problem of multiperiod process and supply chain network design is considered under demand uncertainty. A mixed integer two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated with integer variables indicating the process design and continuous variables to represent the material flow in the supply chain. The problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach. Benders decomposition is used to reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. To promote risk-averse decisions, a downside risk measure is incorporated in the model. The results demonstrate the several advantages of modular designs in meeting product demands. A pareto-optimal curve for minimizing the objectives of expected cost and downside risk is obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving Cooperative Interactions Between Halogenated Aromatic Additives and Aromatic Side Chain Acceptors for Realizing 19.22% Efficiency Polymer Solar Cells

Processing additive plays an important role in the standard operation procedures for fabricating top performing polymer solar cells (PSCs) through efficient interactions with key photovoltaic materials. However, improving interaction study of acceptor materials to high performance halogenated aromatic additives such as diiodobenzene (DIB) is a widely neglected route for molecular engineering toward more efficient device performances. Here, in this work, two novel Y-type acceptor molecules of BTP-TT and BTP-TTS with different aromatic side chains on the outer positions are designed and synthesized. The resulting aromatic side chains significantly enhanced the interactions between the acceptor molecules and DIB through an arene/halogenated arene interaction, which improved the crystallinity of the acceptor molecules and induced a polymorph with better photovoltaic performances. Thus, high power conversion efficiencies (PCEs) of 18.04% and 19.22% are achieved in binary and ternary blend devices using BTP-TTS as acceptor and DIB as additive. Aromatic side chain engineering for improving additive interactions is proved to be an effective strategy for achieving much higher performance photovoltaic materials and devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗