DOE OSTI2017
Used fuel discharged from nuclear reactors are presently stored in wet pools or in dry cask at-reactor and/or away-from- reactor sites. Only a few countries reprocess their civilian used fuel, notably France, Russia, and UK. No country has yet operated a geologic repository to dispose of civilian used fuel or high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). As a result, the management and disposal of used fuel and HLW are viewed as the Achilles' heel of nuclear power. Figure 1 shows the used fuel inventory in the United States (US) and East Asian nuclear power programs. The inventory is estimated based on that in 2010 and the projected growth of nuclear power in these programs to 2020 and 2030. Figure 1 indicates that in 2010, the US had about 63,900 tons of used fuel from light-water reactors (LWR), more than the statutory limit of what was supposed to go into the now-abandoned Yucca Mountain Repository, and accounting for more than 33% of global used LWR fuel total. Currently, about 2,000 tons of used fuel are generated in the existing US LWRs annually. Russia had 25,100 tons of used fuel in 2010. Based on a modest growth of nuclear power, its used fuel inventory is expected to increase to about 31,800 and 38,000 tons by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The nuclear energy programs in East Asia (China, Japan, ROK, and Taiwan) account for 19% of global used LWR fuel inventory in 2010. China's used fuel inventory in 2010 was relatively small at 1,900 tons, but is expected to grow rapidly to {approx}12,400 and {approx}31,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively, based on its expanding nuclear power program (from the current installed capacity of 21.8 GW to {approx}60 and {approx}200 GW in 2020 and 2030, respectively). Besides PWRs, China also operates 2 Candu reactors which each produces roughly 8 times more used fuel in tons than a PWR of the same power. The used Candu fuel inventory would increase from 950 tons in 2010 to 2,850 and 4,750 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Used fuel in Japan, ROK, and Taiwan are US-obligated. Japan's future trends of used fuel inventory are uncertain due to the unknown numbers and timing of the currently-shutdown nuclear power plants that would be allowed for restart, and the uncertain future of Japan's reprocessing at Rokkasho. Under two scenario cases (a no-nuke/no-reprocessing and a 80%-nuke with reprocessing), the Japanese used fuel inventory could be capped from 2020 to 2030 to {approx}21,500 tons for the first case, and to {approx}22,500 tons for the second. The ROK's used PWR fuel inventory would increase from 4,900 tons in 2010 to about 8,800 and 14,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Its used Candu fuel inventory would also increase from 5,900 tons in 2010 to about 9,700 and 13,500 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The Taiwan used fuel inventory should be kept at current level as nuclear power is being phase out. Its growth should be modest from 3,000 tons in 2010 to about 4,300 and 5,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively even if the 4. nuclear power station would start and the operation of existing LWRs is extended. Used fuel inventory in other East Asian countries (DPRK, Vietnam, etc.) should be small, if any before 2030.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗