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Results for “Bayesian modeling”

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NASA NTRS2014

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment for the ASCENDS Satellite Mission

Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1 degree x 1 degree, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50 percent, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 micron candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 micron wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from 40 percent to 75 percent across our four instrument design cases, and from 65 percent to 85 percent for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr-1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of a physics-based crystal plasticity and damage model

In this work, we present a model parameter calibration procedure for a physics-based crystal plasticity model. The calibration process utilizes a powerful statistics-based Bayesian calibration method. Calibration of the crystal plasticity parameters makes use of experimentally-measured data, i.e. compressive stress–strain response, from $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$123$\rangle$ single crystal copper dynamically loaded via Kolsky bar tests. The calibration of damage parameters is achieved using experimentally-measured free-surface velocity history data from plate impact test on $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$110$\rangle$ single crystal copper, which generates shock compression followed by dynamic tensile failure. A validation assessment is then carried out by comparing the calibrated model predictions and experimental measurements of the dynamic tensile damage generated in an impacted bicrystal copper plate. Lastly, a model-informed rationale for the experimentally-observed dependence of the spatial distribution of ductile damage (porosity) on crystallography is provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Abundance and Migration Success of Overshoot Steelhead in the Upper Columbia River

Abstract Summer steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss may enter freshwater almost a year before spawning and potentially make long migrations (>1,000 km) to interior headwater habitats. However, in response to suboptimal freshwater habitat conditions (e.g., warmer water temperatures), adult summer steelhead may exhibit complex behaviors during upstream migration in the Columbia River basin. Steelhead may migrate upstream of their natal tributary (hereafter, referred to as “overshoot”) and spend days to several months before subsequently migrating downstream (hereafter, referred to as “fallback”) to their natal tributary to spawn. An expansion of an existing Bayesian patch occupancy model, derived from observations of adult steelhead that were PIT-tagged to estimate population-specific abundance upstream of the tagging location, incorporated downstream detection locations to estimate the abundance of overshoot fallbacks. Overshoot steelhead abundance at the tagging location was estimated based on the relationship between the number of known overshoot fallbacks (i.e., the number of steelhead that overshot and successfully migrated downstream to their natal tributary) and their model-estimated abundance. During the study period (2010–2017), the annual mean proportion of overshoot steelhead that successfully migrated downstream of the tagging location (Priest Rapids Dam) was 0.59 (SD = 0.14). The number of dams encountered by overshoot steelhead during their downstream migration was negatively correlated with their downstream migration success probability. Improved downstream passage survival for adult steelhead will increase the abundance of affected populations while reducing potential genetic introgression of upstream populations (i.e., strays). This is the first study to estimate the abundance of overshoot and fallback steelhead, providing the data necessary for scientists to estimate potential conservation benefits of improved downstream survival. For example, surface flow passage routes (e.g., sluiceways and temporary spillway weirs) are very effective in guiding and passing adult steelhead downstream of Columbia River hydroelectric projects and data from this assessment show that changes in dam operations throughout the downstream migration period may maximize conservation benefits.

Murdoch, Andrew R. (ORCID:0000000324827689)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Results of a fishery-independent longline survey targeting coastal sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979 and 2013

Long-term trends in shark abundance offer important insights for fisheries management. Few fisheries-independent, extended time-series data exist for coastal shark species in the northwest Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean outside of the United States. A decades old dataset comprised of standardized longline surveys provided us with the opportunity to characterize diversity and evaluate changes in the relative abundance of sharks in the eastern Bahamas between 1979–1990 and 2011–2013. Caribbean reef sharks Carcharhinus perezi and tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier were the two most commonly captured species throughout the survey and were the only two species analyzed in detail. For both species, sex ratios favored females. Using Bayesian generalized linear models, we found that Caribbean reef shark catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) exhibited a positive relationship with year and temperature, while size exhibited no relationship with year and a negative relationship with temperature. There was no relationship between tiger shark CPUE and year but there was a positive relationship between size and year. These results are presented in the context of Bahamian shark conservation efforts and the results of other surveys in the region.

Fisheries-independent survey, Caribbean reef shark↗

DOE OSTI2020

Anthropogenic Impacts on Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide Since the 19th Century Inferred From Polar Firn Air and Ice Core Measurements

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) was measured in firn air collected during seven different field campaigns carried out at four different sites in Greenland and Antarctica between 2001 and 2015. A Bayesian probabilistic statistical model is used to conduct multisite inversions and to reconstruct separate atmospheric histories for Greenland and Antarctica. The firn air inversions cover most of the 20th century over Greenland and extend back to the 19th century over Antarctica. The derived atmospheric histories are consistent with independent surface air time series data from the corresponding sites and the Antarctic ice core COS records during periods of overlap. Atmospheric COS levels began to increase over preindustrial levels starting in the 19th century, and the increase continued for much of the 20th century. Atmospheric COS peaked at higher than present-day levels around 1975 CE over Greenland and around 1987 CE over Antarctica. An atmosphere/surface ocean box model is used to investigate the possible causes of observed variability. The results suggest that changes in the magnitude and location of anthropogenic sources have had a strong influence on the observed atmospheric COS variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. Here we analyse measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations in DESI Data Release 1 and Data Release 2 and consider type Ia supernovae and a distance prior for the cosmic microwave background. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of Data Release 2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to Data Release 1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the equation of state for dark energy w(z) varies with redshift. Baryon acoustic oscillation data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the prior for the cosmic microwave background, they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. A Bayesian comparison of models shows moderate support for departures from Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) when several degrees of freedom in w(z) are allowed, corresponding to ~3σ tension with ΛCDM (and higher for some datasets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of the approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, Euclid and next-generation cosmic microwave background data will provide decisive tests.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical dark energy in light of the DESI DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations measurements

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of material parameters in modeling coupled metal and high explosive experiments

Experiments involving the coupling of metal and high explosives (HE) are of notable defense-related interest, and we seek to refine the uncertainty quantification associated with models of such experiments. In particular, our focus is on how uncertainty related to the metal constitutive model challenges our ability to infer high explosive model parameters when analyzing focused science experiments. We consider three focused experiments involving an HE accelerating metal: small plate tests with tantalum/LX-14 and tantalum/LX-17 pairings as well as a tantalum/LX-17 cylinder test. For all three models, we perform sensitivity analysis to ascertain the influence of metal strength on the coupled experimental response. Moreover, we calibrate each model in a Bayesian setting and study the quantification of metal strength on the inference of the HE parameters. Based on our results, we offer guidance for future metal/HE experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probability of committed warming exceeding 1.5 ∘ C and 2.0 ∘ C Paris targets

Abstract The feasibility of achieving the Paris 1.5 ∘ C target continues to be a complex and hotly debated question. To help resolve this question we calculate probability distributions of the committed warming that would ensue if all anthropogenic emissions were stopped immediately, or at successive future times. We use a simple Earth system model together with a Bayesian approach that incorporates multiple lines of evidence and accounts for known model biases. This analysis reveals a wide range of possible outcomes, including no further warming, but also a 15% chance of overshooting the 1.5 ∘ C target, and 1%–2% chance for 2 ∘ C, even if all emissions had stopped in 2020. If emissions merely stabilize in 2020 and stop in 2040, these probabilities increase to 90% and 17%. The uncertainty arises mainly from that of present forcing by aerosols. Rather than there being a fixed date by which emissions must stop, the probability of reaching either target—which is already below 100%—gradually diminishes with delays in eliminating emissions, by 3%–4% per year for 1.5 ∘ C.

Sherwood, Steven C. (ORCID:0000000174208216)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing variation in faecal glucocorticoid concentrations in gray whales exposed to anthropogenic stressors

Understanding how individual animals respond to stressors behaviourally and physiologically is a critical step towards quantifying long-term population consequences and informing management efforts. Glucocorticoid (GC) metabolite accumulation in various matrices provides an integrated measure of adrenal activation in baleen whales and could thus be used to investigate physiological changes following exposure to stressors. In this study, we measured GC concentrations in faecal samples of Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG) gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) collected over seven consecutive years to assess the association between GC content and metrics of exposure to sound levels and vessel traffic at different temporal scales, while controlling for contextual variables such as sex, reproductive status, age, body condition, year, time of year and location. We develop a Bayesian Generalized Additive Modelling approach that accommodates the many complexities of these data, including non-linear variation in hormone concentrations, missing covariate values, repeated samples, sampling variability and some hormone concentrations below the limit of detection. Estimated relationships showed large variability, but emerging patterns indicate a strong context-dependency of physiological variation, depending on sex, body condition and proximity to a port. Our results highlight the need to control for baseline hormone variation related to context, which otherwise can obscure the functional relationship between faecal GCs and stressor exposure. Therefore, extensive data collection to determine sources of baseline variation in well-studied populations, such as PCFG gray whales, could shed light on cetacean stress physiology and be used to extend applicability to less-well-studied taxa. GC analyses may offer greatest utility when employed as part of a suite of markers that, in aggregate, provide a multivariate measure of physiological status, better informing estimates of individuals’ health and ultimately the consequences of anthropogenic stressors on populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the contamination of the DES-Y1 cluster sample with SPT-SZ selected clusters

ABSTRACT We perform a cross validation of the cluster catalogue selected by the red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation algorithm (redMaPPer) in Dark Energy Survey year 1 (DES-Y1) data by matching it with the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect (SZE) selected cluster catalogue from the South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. Of the 1005 redMaPPer selected clusters with measured richness $\hat{\lambda }\gt 40$ in the joint footprint, 207 are confirmed by SPT-SZ. Using the mass information from the SZE signal, we calibrate the richness–mass relation using a Bayesian cluster population model. We find a mass trend λ ∝ MB consistent with a linear relation (B ∼ 1), no significant redshift evolution and an intrinsic scatter in richness of σλ = 0.22 ± 0.06. By considering two error models, we explore the impact of projection effects on the richness–mass modelling, confirming that such effects are not detectable at the current level of systematic uncertainties. At low richness SPT-SZ confirms fewer redMaPPer clusters than expected. We interpret this richness dependent deficit in confirmed systems as due to the increased presence at low richness of low-mass objects not correctly accounted for by our richness-mass scatter model, which we call contaminants. At a richness $\hat{\lambda }=40$, this population makes up ${\gt}12{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile) of the total population. Extrapolating this to a measured richness $\hat{\lambda }=20$ yields ${\gt}22{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile). With these contamination fractions, the predicted redMaPPer number counts in different plausible cosmologies are compatible with the measured abundance. The presence of such a population is also a plausible explanation for the different mass trends (B ∼ 0.75) obtained from mass calibration using purely optically selected clusters. The mean mass from stacked weak lensing (WL) measurements suggests that these low-mass contaminants are galaxy groups with masses ∼3–5 × 1013 M⊙ which are beyond the sensitivity of current SZE and X-ray surveys but a natural target for SPT-3G and eROSITA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

An intergalactic medium temperature from a giant radio galaxy

ABSTRACT The warm–hot intergalactic medium (warm–hot IGM, or WHIM) pervades the filaments of the Cosmic Web and harbours half of the Universe’s baryons. The WHIM’s thermodynamic properties are notoriously hard to measure. Here we estimate a galaxy group–WHIM boundary temperature using a new method. In particular, we use a radio image of the giant radio galaxy (giant RG, or GRG) created by NGC 6185, a massive nearby spiral. We analyse this extraordinary object with a Bayesian 3D lobe model and deduce an equipartition pressure Peq = 6 × 10−16 Pa – among the lowest found in RGs yet. Using an X-ray-based statistical conversion for Fanaroff–Riley II RGs, we find a true lobe pressure $P = 1.5\substack{+1.7\\ -0.4}\times 10^{-15}\ \mathrm{Pa}$. Cosmic Web reconstructions, group catalogues, and MHD simulations furthermore imply an Mpc–scale IGM density $1 + \delta _\mathrm{IGM} = 40\substack{+30\\ -10}$. The buoyantly rising lobes are crushed by the IGM at their inner side, where an approximate balance between IGM and lobe pressure occurs: PIGM ≈ P. The ideal gas law then suggests an IGM temperature $T_\mathrm{IGM} = 11\substack{+12\\-5} \times 10^6\ \mathrm{K}$, or $k_\mathrm{B}T_\mathrm{IGM} = 0.9\substack{+1.0\\-0.4}\ \mathrm{keV}$, at the virial radius – consistent with X-ray-derived temperatures of similarly massive groups. Interestingly, the method is not performing at its limit: in principle, estimates TIGM ∼ 4 × 106 K are already possible – rivalling the lowest X-ray measurements available. The technique’s future scope extends from galaxy group outskirts to the WHIM. In conclusion, we demonstrate that observations of GRGs in Cosmic Web filaments are finally sensitive enough to probe the thermodynamics of galaxy groups and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

Abstract The long‐term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N 2 O flux measurements with site‐specific Michaelis–Menten kinetics of nitrification‐derived N 2 O, we test the relative importance of nitrification‐derived N 2 O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N 2 O fluxes was 13%–17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27%–42% in a low‐input cover‐cropped annual cropping system, and 52%–63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be <10% of these values because of low N 2 O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04%–8% of NH 3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available in situ. Most nitrification‐derived N 2 O was produced by ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria rather than archaea, who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification‐derived N 2 O (higher V max ) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N 2 O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based Bayesian optimization to accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature applications

Two crucial properties influencing the performance of high-temperature alloys are coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and phase constitution. It is desirable to have alloys with low CTE, which reduces CTE mismatch with the surface oxide and the likelihood of oxide spallation. Reducing the amount of brittle intermetallic phases such as Sigma (σ) enhances alloy ductility and processability. Here, we propose a multi-objective Bayesian Optimization (BO) model to simultaneously minimize CTE (at an operational temperature of 1150 °C) and T σ (temperature when the Sigma phase completely dissolves in the metal matrix), properties which are obtained from high-throughput CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD). The model successfully identifies several alloys with CTE ≤ 2 × 10 –5 /K and T σ ≤ 500 °C by exploring just 7% of the nickel–chromium–cobalt–aluminum–iron (Ni–Cr–Co–Al–Fe) composition space. Such multi-objective alloy design frameworks can be used to inform additive manufacturing experiments and accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Direct Measurement of Mass-Temperature Distributions in the Core of Implosions on the National Ignition Facility (Full Technical Final Report)

Inertial confinement fusion plasmas are characterized by several kilo-electron-volt (keV) electron temperatures and ion and electron densities approaching 100 to 1000 times solid. In these implosions which simulate the dynamics of our sun, spectroscopic dopants can lead to detailed exploration of the plasma gradients that are not possible in other places. This is both in the central core pressure and temperature as well as any “mix” resultant from ablation and hydrodynamic interactions. This work will show new Bayesian atomic physics models applied to ICF plasmas to give both the temperature and density of the internal hot spot to better describe the physical nature of these implosions along with trying to spatially resolve the mix coming from the ablator region. The mission impact is to demonstrate this effect and to lead to a more quantitative description of mix in inertial confinement plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗