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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional-scale soil carbon predictions can be enhanced by transferring global-scale soil–environment relationships

Accurate modelling and mapping soil organic carbon are crucial for supporting soil health restoration and climate change mitigation at both regional and global scales. However, regional soil predictions often suffer from data scarcity and high prediction uncertainty. Utilizing a pre-trained global-to-regional soil carbon predictive model can be a potential solution to address this challenge. Despite its promise, how to construct and apply the global-scale model to enhance regional-scale soil carbon mapping remains largely unexplored. Here, we propose the Global Soil Carbon Pre-trained Model (GSoilCPM), a deep-learning-based domain adaptative model, to enhance regional-scale soil carbon predictions. Based on large amount of environmental covariate data and 106,167 soil samples across the globe, we verify our hypothesis of the effectiveness of this 'global-to-regional' modelling strategy. The pre-trained model can be then transferred and fine-tuned to bridge the regional- and global-scale soil–environment relationships. We applied and validated this modelling strategy in four regional-scale study areas, three in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern Hemisphere, each with distinct environmental background. Compared to traditional modelling approaches as a baseline, four case studies all demonstrated significant improvement in prediction accuracy across diverse environments and varying data availabilities. The average percentage improvement across all regions is 10.93% (absolute values decreased by 1.20 g kg−1 averagely) in MAE and 29.04% (absolute values increased by 0.10 averagely) in CCC. The applicability and future horizons of using GSoilCPM were further discussed. We further reveal that regions with fewer soil samples or lower baseline accuracy benefit more from the pre-trained global model. Our findings highlight the advantages of leveraging the generalized knowledge from global models to enhance specifically localized soil modelling, positioning a potential paradigm shift in digital soil mapping, and far-reaching implications for soil monitoring and land management.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Time-warping invariant quantum recurrent neural networks via quantum-classical adaptive gating

Adaptive gating plays a key role in temporal data processing via classical recurrent neural networks (RNNs), as it facilitates retention of past information necessary to predict the future, providing a mechanism that preserves invariance to time warping transformations. This paper builds on quantum RNNs (QRNNs), a dynamic model with quantum memory, to introduce a novel class of temporal data processing quantum models that preserve invariance to time-warping transformations of the (classical) input-output sequences. The model, referred to as time warping-invariant QRNN (TWI-QRNN), augments a QRNN with a quantum–classical adaptive gating mechanism that chooses whether to apply a parameterized unitary transformation at each time step as a function of the past samples of the input sequence via a classical recurrent model. The TWI-QRNN model class is derived from first principles, and its capacity to successfully implement time-warping transformations is experimentally demonstrated on examples with classical or quantum dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Differentially Private Map Matching (DPMM) v1.0

Human mobility trajectories provide valuable information for developing mobility applications, as they contain diverse and rich information about the users. User mobility data is valuable for various applications such as intelligent transportation systems (ITS), commercial business models, and disease-spread models. However, such spatio-temporal traces may pose a threat to user privacy. GPS trajectories in their raw form are not suitable for transportation studies, as they require matching locations with nearest road links — a process called map-matching. This software implements a differential privacy (DP)-based map-matching algorithm, called DPMM, that generates link-level location trajectories in a privacy-preserving manner to protect users' origin destinations (OD) and travel paths. OD privacy is achieved by injecting Planar Laplace noise to the user OD GPS points. Travel-path privacy is provided with randomized travel path construction using exponential DP mechanism. The injected noise level is selected adaptively, by considering the link density of the location and the functional category of the localized links. For path privacy, our mechanism samples waypoints and selects candidate paths between waypoints. DPMM provides privacy effectively with respect to link density instead of other trajectory samples in the database compared to other privacy mechanisms. Compared to the different baseline models our DP-based privacy model offers closer query responses to the raw data in terms of individual and aggregate trajectory-level statistics with an average at absolute deviation from the baseline for individual statistics on ϵ = 1.0. Beyond individual trajectory statistics, the DPMM outperforms the other benchmark DP-based mechanisms on different aggregate statistics with up to 8x improvement in utility.

Peisert, Sean [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2024

The ancestral environment of teosinte populations shapes their root microbiome

Summary Background The composition of the root microbiome affects the host’s growth, with variation in the host genome associated with microbiome variation. However, it is not known whether this intra-specific variation of root microbiomes is a consequence of plants performing targeted manipulations of them to adapt to their local environment or varying passively with other traits. To explore the relationship between the genome, environment and microbiome, we sampled seeds from teosinte populations across its native range in Mexico. We then grew teosinte accessions alongside two modern maize lines in a common garden experiment. Metabarcoding was performed using universal bacterial and fungal primers to profile their root microbiomes. Results The root microbiome varied between the two modern maize lines and the teosinte accessions. We further found that variation of the teosinte genome, the ancestral environment (temperature/elevation) and root microbiome were all correlated. Multiple microbial groups significantly varied in relative abundance with temperature/elevation, with an increased abundance of bacteria associated with cold tolerance found in teosinte accessions taken from high elevations. Conclusions Our results suggest that variation in the root microbiome is pre-conditioned by the genome for the local environment (i.e. non-random). Ultimately, these claims would be strengthened by confirming that these differences in the root microbiome impact host phenotype, for example, by confirming that the root microbiomes of high-elevation teosinte populations enhance cold tolerance.

Genetics & Heredity↗

NASA NTRS1981

Modeling of photodegradation in solar cell modules of substrate and superstrate design made with ethylene-vinyl acetate as pottant material

The rates of hydrogen abstraction by peroxy radicals were proven to be too slow for significant oxidation of the alkane substrate to be important. The numerical procedure, independent of our particular data base was verified by reproducing concentration time profiles for a model reaction set describing the cesium flare system in the upper atmosphere. Simulation was identical to that given in the literature. Experimental verification of the data base is to be attempted by weatherometry studies in the coming year. Work on the new diagnostic techniques was completed. The adapted automated viscometer was demonstrated to be an efficient and reliable tool for routine measurements of viscosity (molecular weight) changes in solid samples after batch solutions have been made up. The laser photolysis GC method for monitoring extremely low levels of oxidation in polymers proved to be impractical because the yields of carbon monoxide were too low for quantification. Much progress was made with the computer model. The reaction matrix was completely revised, resulting in a new scheme of 31 reactions and time, lifetimes in excess of ten years. The results to date lead us to some tentative observations.

Somersall, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

Young, G. E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Measuring Hydrogen Concentrations in Metals

Commercial corrosion-measurement system adapted to electrochemical determination of hydrogen concentrations in metals. New technique based on diffusion of hydrogen through foil specimen of metal. In sample holder, hydrogen produced on one side of foil, either by corrosion reaction or by cathodic current. Hydrogen diffused through foil removed on other side by constant anode potential, which leads to oxidation of hydrogen to water. Anode current is measure of concentration of hydrogen diffusing through foil. System used to study hydrogen uptake, hydrogen elimination by baking, effect of heat treatment, and effect of electroplating on high-strength steels.

Danford, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Some practical universal noiseless coding techniques, part 3, module PSl14,K+

The algorithmic definitions, performance characterizations, and application notes for a high-performance adaptive noiseless coding module are provided. Subsets of these algorithms are currently under development in custom very large scale integration (VLSI) at three NASA centers. The generality of coding algorithms recently reported is extended. The module incorporates a powerful adaptive noiseless coder for Standard Data Sources (i.e., sources whose symbols can be represented by uncorrelated non-negative integers, where smaller integers are more likely than the larger ones). Coders can be specified to provide performance close to the data entropy over any desired dynamic range (of entropy) above 0.75 bit/sample. This is accomplished by adaptively choosing the best of many efficient variable-length coding options to use on each short block of data (e.g., 16 samples) All code options used for entropies above 1.5 bits/sample are 'Huffman Equivalent', but they require no table lookups to implement. The coding can be performed directly on data that have been preprocessed to exhibit the characteristics of a standard source. Alternatively, a built-in predictive preprocessor can be used where applicable. This built-in preprocessor includes the familiar 1-D predictor followed by a function that maps the prediction error sequences into the desired standard form. Additionally, an external prediction can be substituted if desired. A broad range of issues dealing with the interface between the coding module and the data systems it might serve are further addressed. These issues include: multidimensional prediction, archival access, sensor noise, rate control, code rate improvements outside the module, and the optimality of certain internal code options.

Rice, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Comet nucleus and asteroid sample return missions

Three Advanced Design Projects have been completed this academic year at Penn State. At the beginning of the fall semester the students were organized into eight groups and given their choice of either a comet nucleus or an asteroid sample return mission. Once a mission had been chosen, the students developed conceptual designs. These were evaluated at the end of the fall semester and combined into three separate mission plans, including a comet nucleus same return (CNSR), a single asteroid sample return (SASR), and a multiple asteroid sample return (MASR). To facilitate the work required for each mission, the class was reorganized in the spring semester by combining groups to form three mission teams. An integration team consisting of two members from each group was formed for each mission so that communication and information exchange would be easier among the groups. The types of projects designed by the students evolved from numerous discussions with Penn State faculty and mission planners at the Johnson Space Center Human/Robotic Spacecraft Office. Robotic sample return missions are widely considered valuable precursors to manned missions in that they can provide details about a site's environment and scientific value. For example, a sample return from an asteroid might reveal valuable resources that, once mined, could be utilized for propulsion. These missions are also more adaptable when considering the risk to humans visiting unknown and potentially dangerous locations, such as a comet nucleus.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2018

Transitory Microbial Habitat in the Hyperarid Atacama Desert

Traces of life are nearly ubiquitous on Earth. However, a central unresolved question is whether these traces always indicate an active microbial community or whether, in extreme environments, such as hyperarid deserts, they instead reflect just dormant or dead cells. Although microbial biomass and diversity decrease with increasing aridity in the Atacama Desert, we provide multiple lines of evidence for the presence of an at times metabolically active, microbial community in one of the driest places on Earth. We base this observation on four major lines of evidence: (i) a physico-chemical characterization of the soil habitability after an exceptional rain event, (ii) identified biomolecules indicative of potentially active cells [e.g., presence of ATP, phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs), metabolites, and enzymatic activity], (iii) measurements of in situ replication rates of genomes of uncultivated bacteria reconstructed from selected samples, and (iv) microbial community patterns specific to soil parameters and depths. We infer that the microbial populations have undergone selection and adaptation in response to their specific soil microenvironment and in particular to the degree of aridity. Collectively, our results highlight that even the hyperarid Atacama Desert can provide a habitable environment for microorganisms that allows them to become metabolically active following an episodic increase in moisture and that once it decreases, so does the activity of the microbiota. These results have implications for the prospect of life on other planets such as Mars, which has transitioned from an earlier wetter environment to today’s extreme hyperaridity.

Schulze-Makuch, Dirk↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shock wave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantifications↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extended Accelerated Stress Testing of Lamination-Free Edge-Sealed Photovoltaic Minimodules

Lamination-free minimodules are constructed with silicon solar cells between glass sheets and an edge seal of polyisobutylene and silicone. These samples are stressed using a repeated sequential testing sequence including ultraviolet-containing simulated solar spectrum light exposure at elevated temperature, damp heat, humidity freeze, and thermal cycling adapted from the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TS 63209-2:2022. The minimodule performance throughout the stressing is characterized by flash testing and electroluminescence imaging. Results are compared to conventional laminated minimodules using the same type of solar cells. The lamination-free minimodules experience up to 8% power loss compared to roughly 3% for the laminated versions. However, those losses, dominated by current and fill factor, are caused by glass soiling and busbar ribbon separation on the cells. When glass is replaced and the stressed cells are contacted with probes bypassing the delaminated ribbons, the initial performance is recovered, and overall losses of the lamination-free samples become negligible.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Variational inference of effective range parameters for 3 He− 4 He scattering

We use two different methods, Monte Carlo sampling and variational inference (VI), to perform a Bayesian calibration of the effective-range parameters in 3 He– 4 He elastic scattering. The parameters are calibrated to data from a recent set of 3 He– 4 He elastic scattering differential cross section measurements. Analysis of these data for E lab ≤ 4.3 MeV yields a unimodal posterior for which both methods obtain the same structure. However, the effective-range expansion amplitude does not account for the 7/2 − state of 7 Be so, even after calibration, the description of data at the upper end of this energy range is poor. The data up to E lab = 2.6 MeV can be well described, but calibration to this lower-energy subset of the data yields a bimodal posterior. After adapting VI to treat such a multi-modal posterior we find good agreement between the VI results and those obtained with parallel-tempered Monte Carlo sampling.

effective field theory↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning with knowledge constraints for process optimization of open-air perovskite solar cell manufacturing

Perovskite photovoltaics (PV) have achieved rapid development in the past decade in terms of power conversion efficiency of small-area lab-scale devices; however, successful commercialization still requires further development of low-cost, scalable, and high-throughput manufacturing techniques. One of the critical challenges of developing a new fabrication technique is the high-dimensional parameter space for optimization, but machine learning (ML) can readily be used to accelerate perovskite PV scaling. Herein, we present an ML-guided framework of sequential learning for manufacturing process optimization. We apply our methodology to the Rapid Spray Plasma Processing (RSPP) technique for perovskite thin films in ambient conditions. With a limited experimental budget of screening 100 process conditions, we demonstrated an efficiency improvement to 18.5% as the best-in-our-lab device fabricated by RSPP, and we also experimentally found 10 unique process conditions to produce the top-performing devices of more than 17% efficiency, which is 5 times higher rate of success than the control experiments with pseudo-random Latin hypercube sampling. Our model is enabled by three innovations: (a) flexible knowledge transfer between experimental processes by incorporating data from prior experimental data as a probabilistic constraint; (b) incorporation of both subjective human observations and ML insights when selecting next experiments; (c) adaptive strategy of locating the region of interest using Bayesian optimization first, and then conducting local exploration for high-efficiency devices. Furthermore, in virtual benchmarking, our framework achieves faster improvements with limited experimental budgets than traditional design-of-experiments methods (e.g., one-variable-at-a-time sampling). This framework shows the capability of incorporating researchers’ domain knowledge into the ML-guided optimization loop; therefore, it has the potential to facilitate the wider adoption of ML in scaling to perovskite PV manufacturing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil Water Retention and Hydraulic Conductivity Data and Model at Trail Creek in Taylor River Watershed, Colorado 2024-2025

This data package includes soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity data and model fitting results from measurements of ex-situ soil samples and in-situ soil sensors near Trail Creek. Soil water retention curves (SWRC) characterize soil water content as a function of soil water potential. SWRC depends on soil texture and pore structure and can be used to describe the constraints on biogeochemical processes in terms of soil water availability. In this data package, the sample identification follows the format TR-X-Y, where TR refers to Trail Creek, X is the treatment block identifier, and Y is the location identifier. Specifically, TR-ASCC1 is the control treatment block under the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) project, and TR-ASCC2 is the clear-cut treatment block. TR-ASCC-EHSn is associated with ecohydrology sites under the East-Taylor Watershed Community Observatory Sites directory, and TR-ASCC-ERTn (upslope n=1) are ecohydrology sites along the electrical resistivity tomography transects. The sample and location information can be found in metadata.csv, and the data from the soil sensors will be included in a future data version when the observation period becomes sufficiently long for data analysis. Sampling and Measurements Each sample falls into one of the two sampling methods – (1) intact cores or (2) soil sensors – and one of the two measurement methods – (a) laboratory or (b) in-situ. The intact cores were measured using the laboratory methods, which include measurements of soil water potential (HYPROP & WP4C, METER), saturated (KSAT, METER) and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP). The in-situ method uses a pair of co-located soil sensors to measure volumetric water content (TEROS12, METER) and soil water potential (TEROS21, METER), and the hydraulic conductivity was not measured. In comparison, the laboratory methods progress from full saturation to dry conditions, and the in-situ method includes both dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry cycles. The sampling and measurement methods for each sample can be found in metadata.csv, and more information about the measurements is detailed in the Methods section below. Models Retention and hydraulic conductivity data were fitted with four van-Genuchten-type models (specified by “model_name” column in the files): (1) traditional constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained”), (2) traditional unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained”), (3) PDI-variant of the constrained van Genuchten model (“vG_constrained_PDI”), and (4) PDI-variant of the unconstrained van Genuchten model (“vG_unconstrained_PDI”). The difference between the constrained (1: n) and the unconstrained (2: n, m) van Genuchten models is the number of pore-size distribution parameters in the model equations, giving the unconstrained model more degrees of freedom when fitting the data. Between the traditional and the PDI-variant models, model fitting differs the most at the dry end of the measurements. The traditional models allow infinite suction at the residual water content (water content does not drop below residual water content), and the PDI-variant models enforce a soil water potential value of pF=6.8 (~ -630 MPa) at oven-dryness (water content reaches 0). The inclusion of the van-Genuchten-type models is due to their common application. If other retention models are required, users can access the data in data.csv for further data fitting. More information about the models can be found in the Methods section below. Fitting Tasks The model fitting can be categorized into three levels of tasks (specified by “fitting_task” column in the files). Level 1 (“fit_retention”) only includes retention data fitting (the only level available for the in-situ method). Level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks, a parameter of the hydraulic conductivity functions) is fixed by the measurements from KSAT. Level 3 (“fit_retention_conductivity_Ks”) also includes both retention and hydraulic conductivity data fitting, but Ks is a fitted parameter without the constraints from KSAT measurements. Among the same retention models (e.g. vG_constrained models of the same sample), level 1 should produce the best retention data fitting. Level 2 should have the highest misfit of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data, because the retention and hydraulic conductivity functions share common model parameters, and the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (HYPROP) data fitting is subject to Ks measured independently by KSAT. Level 3 should have mid-level misfits of the retention and hydraulic conductivity data. While level 3 fits the hydraulic conductivity data better than level 2, the fitted Ks value might be unreasonable due to the lack of constraints at the wet end of the measurements. General recommendation when using this data package: (1) Choice of sampling methods: Intact cores might suffer from sample gaps that would lead to overestimation of Ks (sample gaps can be inferred from the “soil_sample_volume” column in metadata.csv when the value is < 249). In-situ method has higher uncertainty in characterizing the wet end of the SWRC because of sensor limitations and the difficulty in reaching full saturation under natural conditions. (2) Choice of fitting tasks: When only retention data is needed, level 1 (“fit_retention”) should be prioritized. When both retention and hydraulic conductivity data are needed, level 2 (“fit_retention_conductivity”) could be prioritized. (3) Choice of models: This could depend on what the downstream models call for. If no specific model is required, model misfit could be used as a ranking criterion. Model misfit values in terms of RMSE can be found in model_parameters.csv. The following files are included in this data package: (1) metadata.csv – This file includes the general information of each sample, including location (description, geocoordinates, elevation), sampling and measurements details (method, depth, time or period, volume, instruments), and soil physical properties (bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, only applicable to physical soil samples). (2) data.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity data of each sample. Column “instrument” specifies the instrument (HYPROP, WP4C, or TEROS) used to perform the measurements. (3) model_fit.csv – This file includes soil water potential, volumetric water content, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity fitted from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the variable does not apply to that fitting task. (4) model_parameters.csv – This file includes the fitted model parameters, model misfits, and conventional water content thresholds (field capacity and wilting point) from the four models and three fitting tasks. Column “model_name” specifies the retention model used, and “fitting_task” specifies the level of data fitting. Missing values indicate that the parameter does not apply to that model and/or that fitting task. (5) data_Ks.csv – This file includes the saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements from KSAT. (6) /figure/*.png – This folder includes three quick visualizations of the data, retention model fitting results and misfits, and hydraulic conductivity model fitting results, misfits, and parameters. The model fitting results are separated by samples and fitting tasks and colored by models. Zoom-in required. (7) /hyprop/*.bdhx – This folder includes proprietary hyprop files that require the free Labros SoilView-Analysis (METER) to open. Users can explore data fitting using other retention models (i.e. Brooks-Corey, Fredlund-Xing, Kosugi, bimodal models). Be aware that Ks value is pre-entered under “Fitting tab, Conductivity functions parameters” for level 2 fitting. If the value is lost, please refer to metadata.csv under “Ks” column. (8) Six file-level metadata that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > SOILS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2022

2019 ARIA Proposal Final Report Public Abstract: What Happens to Life in an Ocean World Plume?

The NASA Cassini mission to Saturn discovered persistent jets of water being ejected into space from a subsurface ocean on the small moon Enceladus and evidence that this ocean is habitable for life. The ice resulting from these plumes forms the E Ring of Saturn. Missions are under study to fly through these plumes and collect and analyze samples to look for evidence of life. To support design and instrument selection for these missions, there is a critical need to understand what happens to microbial life adapted to a liquid environment when suddenly ejected into the vacuum of space. We experimentally determined the structural changes in microbial cells in liquid medium when ejected into vacuum. We first developed a vacuum chamber fitted with a feedthrough and nozzle allowing fluid to be injected into vacuum. The nozzle dispersed the fluid into micron-sized droplets. Fluid containing a population of E. Coli microbes was injected into the chamber and droplets were collected on microscope slides and small cups for imaging with a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Epifluorescence microscopy, using a lipid stain, and SEM imaging were used to evaluate the cellular integrity of E. coli after injection through the pressurized nozzle into vacuum. The experimental samples showed a 94% decrease in visible intact E. coli cells as compared with control samples but showed a fluorescent residue in the shape of the sublimated droplets that indicated the presence of lipids. E. coli was selected for testing although other cell types could vary physiologically which could affect their response to a vacuum environment. More testing is needed to determine whether other types of microbial cells can survive the plume environment. However, these results suggest that lipids may be directly detectable evidence of life in icy world plumes, but organisms are unlikely to survive due to disruption of their cell walls.

C. R. Stoker↗