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NASA NTRS1995

Probing the galactic disk and halo. 2: Hot interstellar gas toward the inner galaxy star HD 156359

We present Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph intermediate-resolution measurements of the 1233-1256 A spectral region of HD 156396, a halo star at l = 328.7 deg, b = -14.5 deg in the inner Galaxy with a line-of sight distance of 11.1 kpc and a z-distance of -2.8 kpc. The data have a resolution of 18 km/s Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) and a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 50:1. We detect interstellar lines of Mg II, S II, S II, Ge II, and N V and determine log N/(Mg II) = 15.78 +0.25, -0.27, log N(Si II) greater than 13.70, log N(S II) greater than 15.76, log N(Ge II) = 12.20 +0.09,-0.11, and log N(N v) = 14.06 +/- 0.02. Assuming solar reference abundances, the diffuse clouds containing Mg, S, and Ge along the sight line have average logarithmic depletions D(Mg) = -0.6 +/- 0.3 dex, D(S) greater than -0.2 dex, and D(Ge) = -0.2 +/- 0.2 dex. The Mg and Ge depletions are approximately 2 times smaller than is typical of diffuse clouds in the solar vicinity. Galactic rotational modeling of the N v profiles indicates that the highly ionized gas traced by this ion has a scale height of approximately 1 kpc if gas at large z-distances corotates with the underlying disk gas. Rotational modeling of the Si iv and C iv profiles measured by the IUE satellite yields similar scale height estimates. The scale height results contrast with previous studies of highly ionized gas in the outer Milky Way that reveal a more extended gas distribtion with h approximately equals 3-4 kpc. We detect a high-velocity feature in N v and Si II v(sub LSR) approximately equals + 125 km/s) that is probably created in an interface between warm and hot gas.

Sembach, Kenneth R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evidence for active hotspots on Venus from analysis of Magellan gravity data

The 500-Myr average crater retention age for Venus has raised questions about the present-day level of tectonic activity. In this study we examine the relationship between the gravity and topography of four large volcanic swells, Beta, Atla, Bell, and Western Eistla Regiones, for clues about their stage evolution. The Magellan line-of-sight gravity data are inverted using a point mass model of the anomalous mass to solve for the local vertical gravity field. Spectral admittance calculated from both the local gravity inversions and a spherical harmonic model is compared to three models of compensation: local compensation, a 'flexural' model with local and regional compensation of surface and subsurface loads, and a 'hotspot' model of compensation that includes top loading by volcanoes and subsurface loading due to a deep, low density mass anomaly. The coherence is also calculated in each region, but yields an elastic thickness estimate only at Bell Regio. In all models, the long wavelengths are compensated locally. Our results may indicate a relatively old, possibly inactive plume.

Smrekar, Suzanne E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

First-Order System Least-Squares for the Navier-Stokes Equations

This paper develops a least-squares approach to the solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. As with our earlier work on Stokes equations, we recast the Navier-Stokes equations as a first-order system by introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations. We show that the resulting system is well-posed, and that an associated least-squares principle yields optimal discretization error estimates in the H(sup 1) norm in each variable (including the velocity flux) and optimal multigrid convergence estimates for the resulting algebraic system.

Bochev, P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

First-Order System Least Squares for the Stokes Equations, with Application to Linear Elasticity

Following our earlier work on general second-order scalar equations, here we develop a least-squares functional for the two- and three-dimensional Stokes equations, generalized slightly by allowing a pressure term in the continuity equation. By introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations, we are able to establish ellipticity in an H(exp 1) product norm appropriately weighted by the Reynolds number. This immediately yields optimal discretization error estimates for finite element spaces in this norm and optimal algebraic convergence estimates for multiplicative and additive multigrid methods applied to the resulting discrete systems. Both estimates are uniform in the Reynolds number. Moreover, our pressure-perturbed form of the generalized Stokes equations allows us to develop an analogous result for the Dirichlet problem for linear elasticity with estimates that are uniform in the Lame constants.

Cai, Z.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Adjoint-Based, Three-Dimensional Error Prediction and Grid Adaptation

Engineering computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and design applications focus on output functions (e.g., lift, drag). Errors in these output functions are generally unknown and conservatively accurate solutions may be computed. Computable error estimates can offer the possibility to minimize computational work for a prescribed error tolerance. Such an estimate can be computed by solving the flow equations and the linear adjoint problem for the functional of interest. The computational mesh can be modified to minimize the uncertainty of a computed error estimate. This robust mesh-adaptation procedure automatically terminates when the simulation is within a user specified error tolerance. This procedure for estimating and adapting to error in a functional is demonstrated for three-dimensional Euler problems. An adaptive mesh procedure that links to a Computer Aided Design (CAD) surface representation is demonstrated for wing, wing-body, and extruded high lift airfoil configurations. The error estimation and adaptation procedure yielded corrected functions that are as accurate as functions calculated on uniformly refined grids with ten times as many grid points.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of Sulfur Flow Emplacement on Io from Galileo Data and Numerical Modeling

Galileo images of bright lava flows surrounding Emakong Patera have been analyzed and numerical modeling has been performed to assess whether these flows could have resulted from the emplacement of sulfur lavas on Io. Images from the solid-state imaging.(SSI) camera show that these bright, white to yellow Emakong flows are up to 370 km long and contain dark, sinuous features that are interpreted to be lava conduits, approx. 300-500 m wide and > 100 km long. Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) thermal emission data yield a color temperature estimate of 344 K +/- 60 K (less than or equal to 131 C) within the Emakong caldera. We suggest that these bright flows likely resulted from either sulfur lavas or silicate lavas that have undergone extensive cooling, pyroclastic mantling, and/or alteration with bright sulfurous materials. The Emakong bright flows have estimated volumes of approx. 250-350 cu km, similar to some of the smaller Columbia River Basalt flows. If the Emakong flows did result from effusive sulfur eruptions, then they are orders of magnitude greater in volume than any terrestrial sulfur flows. Our numerical modeling results show that sulfur lavas on Io could have been emplaced as turbulent flows, which were capable of traveling tens to hundreds of kilometers, consistent with the predictions of Sagan [ 19793 and Fink et al. [ 19831. Our modeled flow distances are also consistent with the measured lengths of the Emakong channels and bright flows. Modeled thermal erosion rates are approx. 1-4 m/d for flows erupted at approx. 140-180 C, which are consistent with the melting rates of Kieffer et al. [2000]. The Emakong channels could be thermal erosional in nature; however, the morphologic signatures of thermal erosion channels cannot be discerned from available images. There are planned Galileo flybys of Io in 2001 which provide excellent opportunities to obtain high-resolution morphologic and color data of Emakong Patera. Such observations could, along with further modeling, provide additional information to better constrain whether sulfur lavas produced the Emakong flows.

Williams, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Preservation and Enhancement of the Spacewatch Data Archives

In March of 1998, the asteroid 1997 XF11 was announced to be potentially hazardous after being tracked over 90 days. A potential two year wait for confirming observations was shortened to under 24 hours because of the existence of archived photographic prediscovery images. Spacewatch was a pioneer in using CCD scanning and possesses a valuable digital archive of its scans. Unfortunately these data are aging on magnetic tape and will soon be lost. Since 1990, the Spacewatch project gathered some 1.5 Terabytes of scan data covering roughly 75,000 degrees of sky to a limiting magnitude of V = 21.5. The data have not yet been mined for all of their asteroids for scientific studies and orbit determination. Spacewatch's real-time motion detection program MODP was constrained by the computers of the era to use simplified image processing algorithms at a reduced efficiency. Jedicke and Herron estimated MODP's efficiency at finding asteroids to be approximately 60 percent to V=18 and improving somewhat thereafter. This lead to a substantial bias correction in their analyses. Larsen has developed a MODP replacement capable in excess of 90 percent efficiency in the same range and able to push a magnitude fainter in completeness. We propose a program of post-processing and re-archiving Spacewatch data. Our scans would be transferred from tape to CD-ROMs and converted to FITS images -- establishing a consistent data format and media for both past and future Spacewatch observations. Larsen's MODP replacement would mine these data for previously undetected motions, which would be made available to the Minor Planet Center and our ongoing asteroid population studies. A searchable observation record would be made generally available for prediscovery work. We estimate the net asteroid yield of this proposal is equivalent to three full years of Spacewatch operations.

Larsen, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Analysis of the ST-T complex of the electrocardiogram using the Karhunen--Loeve transform: adaptive monitoring and alternans detection

The Karhunen-Loeve transform (KLT) is applied to study the ventricular repolarisation period as reflected in the ST-T complex of the surface ECG. The KLT coefficients provide a sensitive means of quantitating ST-T shapes. A training set of ST-T complexes is used to derive a set of KLT basis vectors that permits representation of 90% of the signal energy using four KLT coefficients. As a truncated KLT expansion tends to favor representation of the signal over any additive noise, a time series of KLT coefficients obtained from successive ST-T complexes is better suited for representation of both medium-term variations (such as ischemic changes) and short-term variations (such as ST-T alternans) than discrete parameters such as the ST level or other local indices. For analysis of ischemic changes, an adaptive filter is described that can be used to estimate the KLT coefficient, yielding an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio of 10 dB (u = 0.1), with a convergence time of about three beats. A beat spectrum of the unfiltered KLT coefficient series is used for detection of ST-T alterans. These methods are illustrated with examples from the European ST-T Database. About 20% of records revealed quasi-periodic salvos of ischemic ST-T change episodes and another 20% exhibit repetitive, but not clearly periodic patterns of ST-T change episodes. About 5% of ischemic episodes were associated with ST-T alterans.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2008

The CME Flare Arcade and the Width of the CME in the Outer Corona

Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007, ApJ, 668, 1221) present evidence that (1) a CME is typically a magnetic bubble, a low-beta gplasmoid with legs h having roughly the 3D shape of a light bulb, and (2) in the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure equilibrium with the ambient magnetic field. They present three CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO, each from a very different source located near the limb. One of these CMEs came from a compact ejective eruption from a small part of a sunspot active region, another came from a large quiet-region filament eruption, and the third CME, an extremely large and fast one, was produced in tandem with an X20 flare arcade that was centered on a huge delta sunspot. Each of these CMEs had more or less the classic lightbulb silhouette and attained a constant heliocentric angular width in the outer corona. This indicates that the CME plasmoid attained lateral magnetic pressure balance with the ambient radial magnetic field in the outer corona. This lateral pressure balance, together with the standard scenario for CME production by the eruption of a sheared-core magnetic arcade, yields the following simple estimate of the strength B(sub Flare) of the magnetic field in the flare arcade produced together with the CME: B(sub Flare) 1.4(theta CME/theta Flare)sup 2 G, where theta (sub CME) is the heliocentric angular width of the CME plasmoid in the outer corona and theta (sub Flare) is the heliocentric angular width of the full-grown flare arcade. Conversely, theta (sub CME) approximately equal to (R(sub Sun)sup -1(phi(sub Flare)/1.4)sup 1/2 radians, where Flare is the magnetic flux covered by the full-grown flare arcade. In addition to presenting the three CMEs of Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007) and their agreement with this relation between CME and Flare, we present a further empirical test of this relation. For CMEs that erupt from active regions, the co-produced flare arcade seldom if ever covers the entire active region: if AR is the total magnetic flux of the active region, Flare . AR, and we predict that CME. (R(sub Sun))sup -1(theta AR/1.4)sup 1/2 radians. For a random sample of 31 CMEs that erupted from active regions within 30 of the limb, for each CME we have measured CME from LASCO/C3 and have measured AR from a SOHO/MDI magnetogram of the source active region when it was within 30 of disk center. We find that each CME obeys the above predicted inequality, none having width greater than half of the upper bound given by theta(sub AR). Thus, an active region's magnetic flux content, together with its location on the solar disk, largely determines whether the active region can possibly produce a CME that is wide enough to intercept the Earth.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Doppler Shifts of GPS Signals To Measure Angular Speed

A method has been proposed for extracting information on the rate of rotation of an aircraft, spacecraft, or other body from differential Doppler shifts of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals received by antennas mounted on the body. In principle, the method should be capable of yielding low-noise estimates of rates of rotation. The method could eliminate the need for gyroscopes to measure rates of rotation. The method is based on the fact that for a given signal of frequency ft transmitted by a given GPS satellite, the differential Doppler shift is attributable to the difference between those components of the instantaneous translational velocities of the antennas that lie along the line of sight from the antennas to the GPS satellite.

Campbell, Charles E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Effect on the Lunar Exosphere of a Coroual Mass Ejection Passage

Solar wind bombardment onto exposed surfaces in the solar system produces an energetic component to the exospheres about those bodies. The solar wind energy and composition are highly dependent on the origin of the plasma. Using the measured composition of the slow wind, fast wind, solar energetic particle (SEP) population, and coronal mass ejection (CME), broken down into their various components, we have estimated the total sputter yield for each type of solar wind. We show that the heavy ion component, especially the He++ and 0+7 can greatly enhance the total sputter yield during times when the heavy ion population is enhanced. Folding in the flux, we compute the source rate for several species during different types of solar wind. Finally, we use a Monte Carlo model developed to simulate the time-dependent evolution of the lunar exosphere to study the sputtering component of the exosphere under the influence of a CME passage. We simulate the background exosphere of Na, K, Ca, and Mg. Simulations indicate that sputtering increases the mass of those constituents in the exosphere a few to a few tens times the background values. The escalation of atmospheric density occurs within an hour of onset The decrease in atmospheric density after the CME passage is also rapid, although takes longer than the increase, Sputtered neutral particles have a high probability of escaping the moon,by both Jeans escape and photo ionization. Density and spatial distribution of the exosphere can be tested with the LADEE mission.

Killen, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2018

Can Egypt Become Self-Sufficient in Wheat?

Egypt produces half of the 20 million tons of wheat that it consumes with irrigation and imports the other half. Egypt is also the world's largest importer of wheat. The population of Egypt is currently growing at 2.2% annually, and projections indicate that the demand for wheat will triple by the end of the century. Combining multi-crop and -climate models for different climate change scenarios with recent trends in technology, we estimated that future wheat yield will decline mostly from climate change, despite some yield improvements from new technologies. The growth stimulus from elevated atmospheric CO2 will be overtaken by the negative impact of rising temperatures on crop growth and yield. An ongoing program to double the irrigated land area by 2035 in parallel with crop intensification could increase wheat production and make Egypt self-sufficient in the near future, but would be insufficient after 2040s, even with modest population growth. Additionally, the demand for irrigation will increase from 6 to 20 billion m3 for the expanded wheat production, but even more water is needed to account for irrigation efficiency and salt leaching (to a total of up to 29 billion m3). Supplying water for future irrigation and producing sufficient grain will remain challenges for Egypt.

Asseng, Senthold↗
NASA NTRS2020

Remote Sensing of Diatom Bloom Succession

Marine diatoms are major biogeochemical and ecological “influencers” that contribute to a large fraction of the carbon export and supplying fisheries (Falkowski 2015). The fluxes of carbon transfer to the food web or to the deep ocean vary according to the stage of a diatom bloom (Du Toit 2018). Stages can be determined using inherent optical properties that reflect their physiological state, such as the chlorophyll fluorescence to particulate backscattering ratio (ChlF/b(sub bp), Cetinic et al. 2015). Identifying the bloom stage can potentially improve biogeochemical models of carbon export and fishery management. However, it is not yet possible to adequately determine the stage of phytoplankton blooms using satellites. Satellite-derived remote sensing reflectance R(sub rs)(𝜆) allow for remote identification of diatom blooms in the open ocean (Sathyendranath et al. 2004), and there are techniques to estimate the fluorescence quantum yield (𝜑) that, when high, can indicate the nutrient limitation that often takes place when blooms start to senesce (Behrenfeld et al. 2009). The goal of this study is to use the ratio between the normalized fluorescence line height from R(sub rs)(𝜆) (nFLH) and the particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)(443)) provided by satellites to identify exponentially growing and senescent diatom blooms from space.

Lange, Priscila K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prospects for TTV Detection and Dynamical Constraints with TESS

We consider the potential for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) to detect transit timing variations (TTVs) during both its nominal and extended mission phases. Building on previous estimates of the overall yield of planetary systems from the TESS mission, we predict that during its nominal two-year mission, TESS will observe measurable TTVs in ~30 systems, from which planet will get precise mass measurements from TTVs alone, ~5 planets will have significant constraints placed on their masses from TTVs, and over a dozen systems will be singly transiting TTV systems. We consider a number of different extended mission scenarios, and predict that in a typical scenario, an extended mission will allow TESS to increase the number of systems with measurable TTVs to a total of ~90, from which ~15 planets will have precise mass measurements, another ~15 will have significant constraints placed on their masses, and ~60 will be singly transiting TTV systems. We also describe how follow-up transit observations of multiplanet systems discovered by the TESS mission can be optimally planned to maximize TTV mass and eccentricity constraints.

planets↗
NASA NTRS2020

KELT-9 b's Asymmetric TESS Transit Caused by Rapid Stellar Rotation and Spin-Orbit Misalignment

KELT-9 b is an ultra-hot Jupiter transiting a rapidly rotating, oblate early-A-type star in a polar orbit. We model the effect of rapid stellar rotation on KELT-9 b’s transit light curve using photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite to constrain the planet’s true spin–orbit angle and to explore how KELT-9 b may be influenced by stellar gravity darkening. We constrain the host star’s equatorial radius to be 1.089±0.017 times as large as its polar radius and its local surface brightness to vary by∼38% between its hot poles and cooler equator. We model the stellar oblateness and surface brightness gradient and find that it causes the transit light curve to lack the usual symmetry around the time of minimum light. We take advantage of the light-curve asymmetry to constrain KELT-9b’s true spin–orbit angle (87degree+ -10degrees/-11degrees), agreeing with Gaudi et al. that KELT-9 b is in a nearly polar orbit. We also apply a gravity-darkening correction to the spectral energy distribution model from Gaudi et al. and find that accounting for rapid rotation gives a better fit to available spectroscopy and yields a more reliable estimate for the star’s polar effective temperature.

Exoplanets↗
NASA NTRS2020

Continued Discussion of Failure Mode Modeling and Overall Component Reliability: Are the Data Missing or Censored?

This paper is the continuation of a paper presented at the 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, in which a methodology of modeling failure modes of complex components was presented; see Paulos and Smith (2016). This methodology is not particularly helpful in the space industry where there is a lack of failure data, but is more helpful in industries that see a lot of component repairs and improvements, such as in the aircraft or automotive industries. The previous paper demonstrated how the typical approach of treating failure modes as being exponential in nature may yield optimistic predictions when estimating how improvements to components will perform in the future. It is more accurate to model the failure modes as a race in time; unfortunately, this does not give a closed-form solution. This paper uses simulation to solve for the model of the world, and the results compared to the standard methodology of treating the failure modes as being exponential random failures. The standard method is shown to have optimistic predictions, which will lead to prediction errors when failure modes are removed or “fixed.” The failure mode methodology presented in the first paper treated the data as being censored when the test stopped. In this paper, we will compare the results from treating the data as both censored and missing.

Smith, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS2021

Photospheric Radius Expansion and a Double-peaked Type-I X-Ray Burst from GRS 1741.9-2853

We present an analysis of two type-I X-ray bursts observed by NuSTAR originating from the very faint transient neutron star (NS) low-mass X-ray binary GRS 1741.9–2853 during a period of outburst in 2020 May. We show that the persistent emission can be modeled as an absorbed, Comptonized blackbody in addition to Fe Kα emission, which can be attributed to relativistic disk reflection. We measure a persistent bolometric, unabsorbed luminosity of L(bol) = 7.03(+0.04, -0.05) x 10^(36) erg/s, assuming a distance of 7 kpc, corresponding to an Eddington ratio of 4.5%. This persistent luminosity combined with light-curve analysis leads us to infer that the bursts were the result of pure He burning rather than mixed H/He burning. Time-resolved spectroscopy reveals that the bolometric flux of the first burst exhibits a double-peaked structure, placing the source within a small population of accreting NSs that exhibit multiple-peaked type-I X-ray bursts. We find that the second, brighter burst shows evidence for photospheric radius expansion (PRE) and that at its peak, this PRE event had an unabsorbed bolometric flux of F(peak)= 2.94 (+0.28, -0.26) 10^(-8) erg/sq.cm s. This yields a new distance estimate of d = 9.0 ± 0.5 kpc, assuming that this corresponds to the Eddington limit for pure He burning on the surface of a canonical NS. Additionally, we performed a detailed timing analysis that failed to find evidence for quasi-periodic oscillations or burst oscillations, and we place an upper limit of 16% on the rms variability around 589 Hz, the frequency at which oscillations have previously been reported.

Sean N. Pike↗