Cloud temperatures and prediction of hurricane intensity
Equivalent black body temperatures of clouds around tropical cyclones are used in a statistical technique to forecast changes in maximum winds for 24 hours in advance.
Gentry, R. C.↗
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Results for “wind forecasting”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Oceanographic and meteorological research based on the data products of SEASAT
Reservations were expressed concerning the sum of squares wind recovery algorithm and the power law model function. The SAS sum of squares (SOS) method for recovering winds from backscatter data leads to inconsistent results when V pol and H pol winds are compared. A model function that does not use a power law and that accounts for sea surface temperature is needed and is under study both theoretically and by means of the SASS mode 4 data. Aspects of the determination of winds by means of scatterometry and of the utilization of vector wind data for meteorological forecasts are elaborated. The operational aspect of an intermittent assimilation scheme currently utilized for the specification of the initial value field is considered with focus on quantifying the absolute 12-hour linear displacement error of the movement of low centers.
Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗
Measuring ocean waves from space; Proceedings of the Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD, Apr. 15-17, 1986
Papers are presented on ocean-wave prediction; the quasi-universal form of the spectra of wind-generated gravity waves at different stages of their development; the limitations of the spectral measurements and observations of the group structure of surface waves; the effect of swell on the growth of wind wave; operational wave forecasting; ocean-wave models, and seakeeping using directional wave spectra. Consideration is given to microwave measurements of the ocean-wave directional spectra; SIR research; estimating wave energy spectra from SAR imagery, with the radar ocean-wave spectrometer, and SIR-B; the wave-measurement capabilities of the surface contour radar and the airborne oceanographic lidar; and SIR-B ocean-wave enhancement with fast-Fourier transform techniques. Topics discussed include wave-current interaction; the design and applicability of Spectrasat; the need for a global wave monitoring system; the age and source of ocean swell observed in Hurricane Josephine; and the use of satellite technology for insulin treatment.
Beal, Robert C.↗
Examples of, reasons for, and consequences of the poor quality of wind data from ships for the marine boundary layer - Implications for remote sensing
Wind reports by data buoys are used to demonstrate that these reports have in the past provided useful values for the synoptic scale winds and that at present these reports provide very reliable value for the synoptic scale winds. Past studies of wind reports by ships have revealed that the data are of poor quality, but the causes for this poor quality are not identified. Examples of the poor quality of wind data from ships are obtained by comparing ship reports with buoy reports and comparing reports of different kinds of ships with each other. These comparisons identify many different reasons for the poor quality of wind data from ships. Suggestions are made for improving the quality of ship data. The consequences of the poor quality of ship winds are described in terms of the effects on weather and wave forecasts. The implications for remotely sensed winds are discussed.
Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗
NWP Impact of Cloud Top and Boundary Layer Winds from a Satellite Borne Lidar: an Observing System Simulation Experiment
Observing systems simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide a powerful tool to assess the impact of proposed satellite borne observing systems on meteorological applications models. We describe the results of an OSSE conducted to assess the impact of data from a low power lidar wind sensor on the forecast accuracy of a global spectral numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Global Data Assimilation System. The instrument would be operating at near-infrared wavelengths thereby increasing the backscatter signal relative to comparable infrared lidar.
Isaacs, R. G.↗
Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)
This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2010 (October - December 2009). A detailed project schedule is included in the Appendix. Included tasks are: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool, Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Phase II, (4) Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS), (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) Update and Maintainability, (5) Verify 12-km resolution North American Model (MesoNAM) Performance, and (5) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) Graphical User Interface.
Bauman, William↗
Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-09
This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 (July - September 2009). Tasks reports include: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool. Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting. Phase II, (4) Update and Maintain Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), (5) Verify MesoNAM Performance (6) develop a Graphical User Interface to update selected parameters for the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLlT)
Bauman, William↗
Applied Meteorology Unit Quarterly Report. First Quarter FY-13
The AMU team worked on five tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford continued work on the objective lightning forecast task for airports in east-central Florida. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work on the task for Vandenberg Air Force Base to create an automated tool that will help forecasters relate pressure gradients to peak wind values. (3) Dr. Huddleston began work to develop a lightning timing forecast tool for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area. (3) Dr. Bauman began work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on east-central Florida. (4) Dr. Watson completed testing high-resolution model configurations for Wallops Flight Facility and the Eastern Range, and wrote the final report containing the AMU's recommendations for model configurations at both ranges.
Source record↗
Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU)
This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2007 (January - March 2007). Tasks reported on are: Obiective Lightning Probability Tool, Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting, Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida, Anvil Threat Corridor Forecast Tool in AWIPS, Volume Averaqed Heiqht lnteq rated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Tower Data Skew-t Tool, and Weather Research and Forecastini (WRF) Model Sensitivity Study
Bauman, William↗
Science Service Status 2019 World Radiocommunication Conference
Science missions such as Earth-exploration and remote sensing thatuse frequencies allocated for Earth Exploration-Satellite Service(EESS) provide valuable information about, for example: (1) Air quality monitoring (2) Soil moisture mapping (3) Sensing sea salinity (4) Weather forecasting and climate models (winds, storms, clouds).Another set of science missions use Space Research Service (SRS)allocations. These space research missions can support: (1) On orbit research that for example can help in the creation of new drugsor the impact of the space environment on satellites (2) Scientific information about the universe – stars, planetary science, solarsystem, and the future evolution of the universe.
Roura, Corali↗
Minimizing Wind Power Producer's Balancing Costs Using Electrochemical Energy Storage: Preprint
This paper examines how electrochemical energy storage can be used to decrease the balancing costs of a wind power producer in the Nordic market. Because electrochemical energy storage is developing in both technological and financial terms, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the most important variables in the wind-storage hybrid system. The system was studied from a wind power producer's point of view. The main result is that there are no technical limitations to using storage for reducing the balancing costs. However, in terms of economic feasibility, installing hybrid wind-storage systems such as the one studied in this paper faces challenges in both the short and long terms.
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Initialization of a mesoscale model for April 10, 1979, using alternative data sources
A 35 km grid limited area mesoscale model was initialized with high density SESAME radiosonde data and high density TIROS-N satellite temperature profiles for April 10, 1979. These data sources were used individually and with low level wind fields constructed from surface wind observations. The primary objective was to examine the use of satellite temperature data for initializing a mesoscale model by comparing the forecast results with similar experiments employing radiosonde data. The impact of observed low level winds on the model forecasts was also investigated with experiments varying the method of insertion. All forecasts were compared with each other and with mesoscale observations for precipitation, mass and wind structure. Several forecasts produced convective precipitation systems with characteristics satisfying criteria for a mesoscale convective complex. High density satellite temperature data and balanced winds can be used in a mesoscale model to produce forecasts which verify favorably with observations.
Kalb, M. W.↗
Integration of New Technology Considering the Trade-Offs Between Operational Benefits and Risks: A Case Study of Dynamic Line Rating
Electric grid operators are adept at handling complexity and uncertainty. However, with increasing introduction of renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and more frequent severe weather events, operators will experience new workload and challenging decision scenarios. Here, this paper quantifies risks and benefits from an operator's perspective of introducing weather based forecast Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) using variable wind conditions in addition to ambient temperature to relieve transmission congestion and facilitating more offshore wind (OSW). A concept of operations (CONOPS) applied to a forecast DLR implementation and its integration with OSW is defined. A method for evaluating tradeoffs of derating to make the rating more conservative but decreasing the benefit was developed and applied to a case study for two existing overhead transmission lines on Long Island, New York. The CONOPS uses historical day-ahead and hour-ahead High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecasts and weather station data to support planning and real-time operations. The analysis determines the risk of downgrades in real-time operational rating compared to the forecast and quantifies the frequency and severity of last-minute downgrades. The risk is compared against the benefits in increased capacity to provide insights on the additional amount of uncertainty DLR and OSW will add to the operator's workload.
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Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Simulating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method in ERF
This study investigates the simulation of marine stratocumulus (stratoCu) clouds – common in many offshore and coastal wind energy regions - using Lagrangian Superdroplet Method (SDM) implemented in Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model. Developed by the Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), ERF is a high-resolution atmospheric modeling tool that relies on traditional bulk microphysics schemes. Under an LLNL-led Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project, SDM was integrated into ERF to improve cloud process fidelity by explicitly tracking individual “superdroplets”. This enables a realistic representation of the droplet size spectrum, cloud-atmosphere interactions, and potential feedbacks from wind plants on atmospheric flow and cloud structure.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012
This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of theeleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.
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Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field
Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.
Watson, Andrew I.↗
Final Report for Project: Impacts of stratification and non-equilibrium winds and waves on hub-height winds
This project used a combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations, single-column modeling (where turbulence is parameterized), and currently available observations to improve, assess, and develop a parameterization of the impact of non-equilibrium wave states and stratification on the buoy-observed winds to establish reliable wind data at the turbine hub-height level. Analysis of turbulence-resolving simulations and observations illuminates the non-linear coupling between the atmosphere and the undulating sea surface. This analysis guides modification of existing boundary layer parameterizations to include wave influences for upward extrapolation of surface-based observations through the turbine layer. Our surface roughness modifications account for the interaction between stratification and the effects of swell’s amplitude and wavelength as well as swell’s relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The single-column version of the open source Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model (Skamarock et al., 2008) serves as our platform to test our proposed planetary boundary layer parameterization modifications that account for wave effects on marine atmospheric boundary layer flows. WRF has been widely adopted for wind resource analysis and forecasting. The single column version is particularly suitable to development, analysis, and testing of new boundary layer parameterizations. We utilize WRF’s single-column version to verify and validate our proposed modifications to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization (Nakanishi and Niino, 2004). We explore the implications of our modifications for two-way coupling between WRF and wave models (e.g.,Wavewatch III). The newly implemented parameterization accounting for marine atmospheric boundary layer-wave coupling is then tested in three-dimensional WRF simulations at grid sizes near 1 km. These simulations identify the behavior of simulated winds at the wind plant scale. Overall project conclusions include; In the presence of fast-moving swell (significant wave height Hs = 6.4 m, and phase speed cp = 18 ms -1 ), the atmospheric boundary layer grows more rapidly when waves propagate opposite to the winds compared to when winds and waves are aligned. Pressure drag increases by nearly a factor of 2 relative to the turbulent stress for the extreme case where waves propagate at 180° compared to the pressure gradient forcing. Net wind speed reduces by nearly 15% at hub-height for the 180°-case compared to the 0°-case, and turbulence intensities increase by nearly a factor of 2. These impacts diminish with decreasing wave age; Stratification increases hub height wind speeds and increases the vertical shear of the mean wind across the rotor plane. Fortuitously, this stability-induced enhanced shear does not influence turbulence intensity at hub height, but does increase (decrease) turbulence intensity below (above) hub height. Increased stability also increases the wave-induced pressure stress by ~ 10%; Off the East Coast of the United States during Coupled Boundary Layers Air-Sea Transfer - Low Wind (CBLAST-Low), cases with short fetch include thin stable boundary layers with depths of only a few tens of meters. In the coastal zone, the relationship between the mean wind and the surface fiction velocity (u*(V )) is significantly related to wind direction for weak winds but is not systematically related to the air sea difference of virtual potential temperature, δθv; since waves generally propagate from the south at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) tower, these results suggest that under weak wind conditions waves likely influence surface stress more than stratification does; and Winds and waves are frequently misaligned in the coastal zone. Stability conditions persist for long duration. Over a four year period, the Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee Nr. 1 (FINO1) tower (a site with long fetch) primarily experienced weakly-unstable conditions, while stability at the ASIT tower (with a larger influence of offshore winds) experiences a mix of both unstable and stable conditions, where the summer months are predominantly stable. Wind-wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed non-dimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s (2012) relationship between u* and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased u* produced by wave-induced pressure drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds, temperature, and wave state to upscale buoy measurements to hub-height and across the rotor plane. Our parameterization of wave-state influences on surface drag has been submitted for inclusion in the next publicly available release. In combination, our project elucidates the impacts of two important physical processes (non-equilibrium wind/waves and stratification) on the atmosphere within which offshore turbines operate. This knowledge should help guide and inform manufacturers making critical decisions surrounding design criteria of future turbines to be deployed in the coastal zone. Reductions in annually averaged hub height wind speed error using our new wave-state-aware surface layer parameterization are relatively modest. However since wind turbine power production depends on the wind speed cubed, the error in estimated power production is close to 5%; which is significant and can substantially impact wind resource assessment and decision making with regards to the viability of particular location for a wind plant location. For a single 30-hour forecast, significant reductions in wind speed prediction errors can yield substantially improved wind power forecast skill, thereby mitigating costs and/or increasing revenue through improved; forecasting for maintenance operations and planning; day-ahead forecasting for power trading and resource allocation; and short-term forecasting for dispatch and grid balancing.
17 WIND ENERGY↗