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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A library of AI-assisted FAIR water cycle and related disturbance datasets to enable model training, parameterization and validation

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods. Here we describe how FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Reusable, Interoperable) datasets related to water cycle extremes are essential for successful implementation of ML in Earth System and other models. We also describe how AI can be used to acquire and integrate water cycle data related to extreme events to create a library of FAIR datasets for training and evaluating algorithms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MODFLOW6 models used to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions driving water-level fluctuations in well ER-5-3-2, Frenchman Flat, Southern Nevada

The hydrograph for well ER-5-3-2 in Frenchman Flat, southern Nevada, has previously unexplained water-level fluctuations. Four, three-dimensional, groundwater models (MODFLOW 6) were developed to evaluate potential stresses and hydrologic conditions affecting the well ER-5-3-2 hydrograph. Four model scenarios were developed that simulated: (1) wellbore leakage without recharge, (2) wellbore leakage with recharge, (3) shallow (low transmissivity) and deep (high transmissivity) carbonate rocks, and (4) lateral heterogeneity of carbonate rocks. Input and output files for the four model scenarios are in the model and output directories, respectively. Hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and wellbore-leakage rates (when simulated) were estimated with parameter estimation (PEST) by minimizing a weighted composite, sum-of-squares objective function. The objective function was informed by measurement and Tikhonov regularization observations. Measurement observations included drawdowns from the constant-rate aquifer test and water-level altitudes measured in well ER-5-3-2 from 2001-2021. Tikhonov regularization informed hydraulic conductivity and specific storage parameters that were insensitive to measurement observations, where homogeneity was the preferred relation. Batch files, executables, and MODFLOW 6, PEST, and post-processing utilities are in the ancillary directory. Supplementary data also are included in the ancillary directory, including site information, high-frequency water-level and aquifer-test data, transmissivity estimates, water-chemistry data, and water-temperature analyses. This USGS data release contains data, analyses, and model files for the simulations and analysis results described in U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225132).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Structure of an Atmospheric River over Australia and the Southern Ocean. Part I: Tropical and Midlatitude Water Vapor Fluxes

An atmospheric river (AR) impacting Australia-Tasmania and the Southern Ocean during the Austral summer on 28-29 January 2018 during the SOCRATES campaign is analyzed using both a modeling and observational approach. Gulfstream-V dropsonde measurements and GPM radar analyses were used in conjunction with Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with water vapor tracers to investigate the relative contributions of tropical and mid-latitude moisture sources to the AR. Moisture associated with a monsoonal tropical depression became entrained into a mid-latitude frontal system that extended to 60°S over the Southern Ocean reaching the associated low pressure system 850 km off the east coast of Antarctica – effectively connecting the tropics and the polar region. Tropical moisture contributed to about 50% of the precipitable water within the AR. The tropical contribution to precipitation decreased with latitude, from > 70% over the Australian continent, to ~50% off the Australian coast, to less than 10% poleward of 60°S. Precipitation in the AR conformed to a seeder-feeder model, the seeder precipitation forming primarily from tropical sourced moisture above the altitude of the 0°C isotherm, and the feeder precipitation sourced from mid-latitude sourced moisture below the altitude of the 0°C isotherm. The integrated vapor transport (IVT) through the core of the AR reached above 500 kg m-1s-1 during 1200 UTC 28 January to 0600 UTC 29 January 29, 1.29 times the average amount of water carried by the world’s largest river, the Amazon. The high IVT strength might be attributed to the higher water vapor content associated with the warmer temperatures in Austral summer.

Rauber, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

INVESTIGATION OF ROCK-FLUID INTERACTIONS USING GEOMATERIAL MICROFLUIDICS

Illite and Illite-Smectite clays are reportedly the Caney Shale's most prevalent clay minerals. The swelling and fines migration of clays may occur when water-based fluids contact the clay minerals. This may result in the reduction of pore space and permeability, and wettability alteration. Therefore, we quantified the swelling potentials, fines migration and wettability alteration of Illite and Illite-Smectite clays upon exposure to model brines and a produced water, and a model oil and a crude oil. We measured density, viscosity, pH, TDS, and interfacial tension as they are important in multiphase flow and displacement characteristics. Geomaterial microfluidics is recently being used to study physicochemical interactions of solid-fluid systems. It facilitates visualizing the surface behavior upon exposure to various fluids. This study includes preparation and characterization of Illite-Smectite clay-coated glass capillary tubes. Illite and Illite-Smectite clay-coated geomaterial microfluidic surfaces were prepared to investigate the effects of first contact fluid, brine salinity, and aging on wettability. In this work, advancing and receding contact angles of model brine-air, model oil-air, produced water-air, crude oil-air, model brine-model oil systems, and produced water-crude oil systems have been measured in the untreated, and clay-coated microfluidic channels of 1000 µm width and 50 µm depth. The aging effect was studied by retaining the non-aqueous and aqueous solutions in the corresponding microfluidic channels for approximately 24 h in the case of channels first contacted by aqueous and non-aqueous solutions, respectively. The advancing and receding contact angles of Caney shale-crude oil-produced water systems were also measured. The experimental findings indicate the swelling potential, fines migration, and wettability alteration of Illite and Illite-Smectite clays. The results signify the influence of first contact fluid, brine salinity, and aging on wettability of the untreated and clay-coated microfluidic surfaces. The experiments also demonstrate the wetting nature of the Caney shale samples from reservoir and non-reservoir zones.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

RiverPIXELS: paired Landsat images and expert-labeled sediment and water pixels for a selection of rivers v1.0

RiverPIXELS contains GeoTIFFs of hand-labeled water and sediment pixels from Landsat images containing rivers. Each of the 104 labeled patches contains 256 x 256 Landsat pixels (30 meter resolution). Our aim in releasing RiverPIXELS is to provide an "off-the-shelf" training and testing dataset for building machine-learned models to automatically identify rivers from multispectral imagery. While a number of trained models and/or surface water products already exist, RiverPIXELS aims for pixel-level accuracy in order to precisely identify river boundaries in particular. Our selection of rivers is heavily Arctic, but we include tropical and temperate rivers as well. Patches are provided for the Colville (7), Indigirka (6), Kolyma (4), Ucayali (54), Waitaki (21), and Yana (12) Rivers. For each patch, all surface water pixels are labeled (1) and all in-channel sediment pixels are labeled (2). Sediments not in-channel are considered part of the land (0) class. RiverPIXELS also includes paired surface water data from the Global Surface Water dataset that may be useful as additional features in machine learning models. Each patch therefore contains four aligned GeoTIFFs: labeled, landsat, gswmo, and gswocc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning Coarse-Grained Potentials for Binary Fluids

Even though atomistic and CG models have been used to simulate liquid nanodroplets in vapor, very few rigorous studies of the liquid-liquid interface structure are available, and most of them are limited to planar interfaces. In this work, we evaluate several existing force fields (FF)s, including two atomistic and three CG FFs, with respect to modeling the interface structure and thermodynamic properties of the water-hexane interface. Both atomistic FFs are able to quantitatively reproduce the interfacial tension and the coexisting densities of the experimentally-observed planar interface. We use the atomistic FFs to model water droplets in hexane and use these simulations to test the CG FFs. We found that the tested CG FFs cannot reproduce the interfacial tensions of planar and/or curved interfaces. Finally, we propose a new approach for learning coarse-grained (CG) potentials within the CG SDK (Shinoda-DeVane- Klein) FF framework from atomistic simulation data. We demonstrate that the new potential significantly improves the prediction of both the interfacial tension and structure of water-hexane planar and curved interfaces.

Gao, Peiyuan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smectite phase separation is driven by hydration-mediated interfacial charge

Smectite clay minerals have an outsize impact on the response of clay-rich media to common stimuli, such as hydration and ion exchange, motivating extensive effort to understand behaviors resulting from these processes such as swelling and exfoliation. Smectites are common and historic systems for investigating colloidal and interfacial phenomena, with two swelling regimes commonly identified across myriad clays: osmotic swelling at high water activity and crystalline swelling at low water activity. However, no current swelling model seamlessly spans the full ranges of water, salt and clay content encountered in natural or engineered settings. Here, we show that structures previously rationalized as either osmotic or crystalline coexist as a rich array of distinct colloidal phases that differ by water content, layer stacking thickness, and curvature. We present an analytical model for intermolecular potentials among water, salt and clay in both mono- and divalent electrolytes that predicts swelling pressures across high and low water activities. Our results indicate that all clay swelling is osmotic swelling, but that the osmotic pressure of charged mineral interfaces becomes attractive and dominates that of the electrolyte at high clay activities. Global energy minima are often not reached on experimental timescales due to many local energy minima that promote long-lived intermediate states with vast differences in clay, ion, and water mobilities, leading to hyperdiffusive layer dynamics driven by variable hydration-mediated interfacial charge.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Hydropower Representation in Power System Models (Summary of Technical Workshop)

In March 2019, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) held a workshop to discuss the characterization of hydropower resources within electric power system models. The workshop took place at the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in Salt Lake City, Utah, and was sponsored by the Water Power Technologies Office of the US Department of Energy. The intention of the workshop is to support the federal energy research initiative HydroWIRES. The Initiative has a specific technical objective to advance the representation of hydropower resources in relevant water and power models and to address the seams between the two. This report describes the workshop, contributions from attendees, a summary of the findings of the event and proposed next steps. The themes and recommendations from this workshop have provided foundational guidance for future research and program strategy.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anti-Icing Coatings using Ionomer Film Layer Structuring

This research effort examined the application of Nafion polymers in alcohol solvents as an anti-ice surface coating, as a mixture with hydrophilic polymers and freezing point depressant salt systems. Co-soluble systems of Nafion, polymer and salt were applied using dip coating methods to create smooth films for frost observation over a Peltier plate thermal system in ambient laboratory conditions. Cryo-DSC was applied to examine freezing events of the Nafion-surfactant mixtures, but the sensitivity of the measurement was insufficient to determine frost behavior. Collaborations with the Fog Chamber at Sandia-Albuquerque, and in environmental SAXS measurements with CINT-LANL were requested but were not able to be performed under the research duration. Since experimental characterization of these factors is difficult to achieve directly, computational modeling was used to guide the scientific basis for property improvement. Computational modeling was performed to improve understanding of the dynamic association between ionomer side groups and added molecules and deicing salts. The polyacrylic acid in water system was identified at the start of the project as a relevant system for exploring the effect of varying counterions on the properties of fully deprotonated polyacrylic acid (PAA) in the presence of water. Simulations were modeled with four different counterions, two monovalent counterions (K+ and Na+) and two divalent counterions (Ca2+ and Mg2+). The wt% of PAA in these systems was varied from ~10 to 80 wt% PAA for temperatures from 250K to 400K. In the second set of simulations, the interpenetration of water into a dry PAA film was studied for Na+ or Ca2+ counterions for temperatures between 300K and 400K. The result of this project is a sprayable Nafion film composite which resists ice nucleation at -20 °C for periods of greater than three hours. It is composed of Nafion polymer, hydrophilic polyethylene oxide polymer and CaCl2 anti-ice crosslinker. Durability and field performance properties remain to be determined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complex Dependence of Calcite Crack Kinetics on Salinity: The Role of DLVO and Hydration Forces

Abstract Subcritical crack growth (SCG) plays an important role in many geological processes such as delayed earth rupture and rock weathering. The complex dependency of SCG on the in‐crack fluid chemistry, however, is still poorly understood. In this study, we utilize the newly developed surface force‐based fracture theory (SFFT) to elucidate the relative contributions of surface forces and solute transport to the crack growth kinetics of calcite in NaCl solutions. Expanding on Barenblatt's cohesive crack model, SFFT introduces an effective stress intensity at the crack tip that encompasses all the relevant intermolecular forces across the crack in addition to the external far‐field stresses. The nonlinear system of equations portraying the crack opening profile, the solute distribution in a propagating crack, and the crack growth velocity are numerically solved via an implicit scheme. After carefully calibrating the model for calcite‐water systems, the SFFT is used to predict the SCG response of calcite at different NaCl concentrations, based on various hypotheses. These predictions are then compared to existing SCG data from the literature. We demonstrate that the experimentally observed variation of SCG rate with NaCl concentration cannot be explained solely by DLVO forces (electrostatic and Van der Waals interactions). This can be remediated by introducing an exponentially decaying hydration force with a nonlinear, nonmonotonic dependence on NaCl concentration. Furthermore, we demonstrate that accounting for both diffusive and advective transport of ions is important in explaining the absence of a stage‐II SCG response for calcite in electrolyte solutions. Plain Language Summary Subcritical crack growth (SCG) refers to the slow propagation of cracks in materials under a stress below the threshold for catastrophic failure. SCG is a key process in many geological events, for example, delayed earth ruptures and rock weathering. New initiatives such as underground CO 2 and H 2 storage in carbonate reservoirs further call for better understanding of SCG in carbonate minerals subjected to varying fluid chemistry. This study examines the SCG of calcite, a key mineral found in carbonate rocks, intergranular cement in sandstones, and filling material in mineral veins and faults, determining their deformation and strength. A mathematical model is developed to describe how the crack opens and propagates, how solutes (like salts) distribute within the crack, and how the crack surfaces interact with each other. We used the model to predict calcite SCG in water at different salt concentrations and compared it with experimental data. Our results revealed that the hydration force is the dominating factor in determining the complex, non‐linear dependency of SCG on salinity. We also found that both the movement of ions by diffusion and by bulk water flow are crucial for explaining the SCG rates, especially when the cracks grow quickly. Key Points Surface Force‐Based Fracture Theory predicts the complex subcritical crack growth patterns of calcite crystals immersed in NaCl solutions Results highlight the dominant role of hydration forces in altering the fracture behavior of calcite compared to VdW and electric double‐layer forces Advective solute transport explains the absence of stages‐II and ‐III subcritical crack growth responses in solid‐liquid systems

DLVO↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Semi‐Mechanistic Model for Partitioning Evapotranspiration Reveals Transpiration Dominates the Water Flux in Drylands

Abstract Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well‐suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine‐scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi‐mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process‐based models, and loosely constrains time‐varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross‐wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub‐yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem‐scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat pump water heater enhanced with phase change materials thermal energy storage: Modeling study

A promising solution to improve the first hour rating (FHR) of a heat pump water heater (HPWH) involves employing a secondary tank which contains phase change material (PCM) capsules. To better understand the influence of PCM thermal storage on the HPWH operational performance, a dynamic model was developed to simulate and analyze the behavior of a newly developed HPWH technology that incorporates PCM storage into a standard HPWH to optimize key parameters such as the uniform energy factor and FHR. Mathematical models of several key components of the proposed HPWH-PCM integrated thermal energy storage (TES) system, e.g., water heater tank, PCM TES tank, evaporator, compressor, and expansion valve, have been elaborated. Also, a model-based control co-simulation platform was developed to integrate a embed PCM storage HPWH dynamic model with a control model for better supporting control design, analysis, verification, and validation. The model accuracy has been validated through comparing simulation results with lab test results, with a mean average percentage error of <5.5% for most of the selected performance variables. In addition, using the developed co-simulation platform, the demand response control strategy was studied to evaluate the load flexibility of the combined HPWH-PCM storage system by shifting system power usage to outside of the 3.5 h peak load period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase equilibrium of liquid water and hexagonal ice from enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations

We study the phase equilibrium between liquid water and ice Ih modeled by the TIP4P/Ice interatomic potential using enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations. Our approach is based on the calculation of ice Ih-liquid free energy differences from simulations that visit reversibly both phases. The reversible interconversion is achieved by introducing a static bias potential as a function of an order parameter. The order parameter was tailored to crystallize the hexagonal diamond structure of oxygen in ice Ih. Furthermore, we analyze the effect of the system size on the ice Ih-liquid free energy differences, and we obtain a melting temperature of 270 K in the thermodynamic limit. This result is in agreement with estimates from thermodynamic integration (272 K) and coexistence simulations (270 K). Since the order parameter does not include information about the coordinates of the protons, the spontaneously formed solid configurations contain proton disorder as expected for ice Ih.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗