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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32

BrzostekEcologyLab/CORPSE-soil-jars

Efforts to manage soils for carbon (C) sequestration remain limited by our understanding of how differences in plant traits and microbial traits mechanistically drive soil organic C (SOC) storage. Addressing this uncertainty is particularly critical in bioenergy agriculture, due to its potential to enhance soil C and provide a C neutral fuel. As such, we examined differences between two contrasting feedstocks, Zea mays (corn) and Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus), in the ability of their litter to form new chemically resistant particulate SOC vs. physically protected mineral associated SOC and used this data to improve the parameterization of a microbial SOC model. We tested a hypothesized conceptual model whereby easy to decompose corn litters drive greater microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) and the formation of more mineral associated SOC over particulate SOC than more complex miscanthus litters. To do this, we performed a soil microcosm experiment where we added 13C enriched aboveground and belowground litters to soils and traced the fate of the 13C into microbial respiration and SOC pools. We found that corn litters promoted higher microbial CUE (0.37) than miscanthus litters (0.24). In turn, corn litter formed approximately 50% more mineral associated SOC than miscanthus litters. Similarly, structurally complex root litters promoted a lower CUE and formed less mineral associated SOC than leaf and shoot litters for both crops. When we used our data to parameterize the SOC model, we found that modeling microbial trait differences uniquely allowed the model to capture the fate of litter C in SOC. Collectively, we found a robust link between litter quality, microbial efficiency, and the formation of SOC. This link bridges the empirical uncertainty in how different crops can form new soil C and provides an empirical basis for modeling SOC transformations.

Ridgeway, Joanna↗

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Adaptive momentum management for large space structures

Momentum management is discussed for a Large Space Structure (LSS) with the structure selected configuration being the Initial Orbital Configuration (IOC) of the dual keel space station. The external forces considered were gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques. The goal of the momentum management scheme developed is to remove the bias components of the external torques and center the cyclic components of the stored angular momentum. The scheme investigated is adaptive to uncertainties of the inertia tensor and requires only approximate knowledge of principle moments of inertia. Computational requirements are minimal and should present no implementation problem in a flight type computer and the method proposed is shown to be effective in the presence of attitude control bandwidths as low as .01 radian/sec.

Hahn, E.↗

Adaptive momentum management for the dual keel Space Station

The report discusses momentum management for a large space structure with the structure selected configuration being the Initial Orbital Configuration of the dual-keel Space Station. The external torques considered were gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques. The goal of the momentum management scheme developed is to remove the bias components of the external torques and center the cyclic components of the stored angular momentum. The scheme investigated is adaptive to uncertainties of the inertia tensor and requires only approximate knowledge of principal moments of inertia. Computational requirements are minimal and should present no implementation problem in a flight-type computer. The method proposed is shown to be effective in the presence of attitude control bandwidths as low as 0.01 radian/sec.

Hopkins, M.↗

Addressing and Presenting Quality of Satellite Data via Web-Based Services

With the recent attention to climate change and proliferation of remote-sensing data utilization, climate model and various environmental monitoring and protection applications have begun to increasingly rely on satellite measurements. Research application users seek good quality satellite data, with uncertainties and biases provided for each data point. However, different communities address remote sensing quality issues rather inconsistently and differently. We describe our attempt to systematically characterize, capture, and provision quality and uncertainty information as it applies to the NASA MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth data product. In particular, we note the semantic differences in quality/bias/uncertainty at the pixel, granule, product, and record levels. We outline various factors contributing to uncertainty or error budget; errors. Web-based science analysis and processing tools allow users to access, analyze, and generate visualizations of data while alleviating users from having directly managing complex data processing operations. These tools provide value by streamlining the data analysis process, but usually shield users from details of the data processing steps, algorithm assumptions, caveats, etc. Correct interpretation of the final analysis requires user understanding of how data has been generated and processed and what potential biases, anomalies, or errors may have been introduced. By providing services that leverage data lineage provenance and domain-expertise, expert systems can be built to aid the user in understanding data sources, processing, and the suitability for use of products generated by the tools. We describe our experiences developing a semantic, provenance-aware, expert-knowledge advisory system applied to NASA Giovanni web-based Earth science data analysis tool as part of the ESTO AIST-funded Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor project.

Leptoukh, Gregory↗

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗

Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk

Abstract Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Uncertainty Propagation in Pre-Flight Prediction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Separation Violation

Current forecasts on the future of aeronautics suggest an in- creasing number of unmanned aerial vehicles entering the low- altitude airspace in the next decades (FAA, 2018; Kopardekar et al., 2016). Small vehicles for package delivery as well as larger vehicles for urban air mobility will change the airspace drastically, increasing density of operations both in time, i.e. high number of take-off and landings per unit time, and in space, operating in dense urban environment. This scenario poses challenges to the current approach to air traffic control, and large efforts from academia, industry and regulatory bodies are dedicated to the development of new traffic management strategies that leverage higher computing and simulating capabilities available today. In this paper, we propose a simple look-ahead approach to predict potential minimum separation violations at the strategic level, that is before vehicles start flying, depending on the predefined 4D trajectories and uncertainty affecting the wind acting along those routes. The wind field is extracted from the NOAA North America Mesoscale Forecast System and interpolated using Gaussian process regression, while uncertainty affecting the expected cruise airspeed is propagated through error intervals. The approach allows the prediction of aircraft separation as a function of time, highlighting potential safety violations that would go undetected if uncertainty affecting the expected 4D trajectories is not considered. The paper will also discuss issues related to accuracy and scalability of the approach to multiple vehicle operations.

Trajectory Prediction↗

Evaluation of Communication Issues in Primal-Dual-Based Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS): Preprint

With the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks, DERMS is becoming an attractive option to coordinate the control of DERs, especially primal-dual-based DERMS which is a well-developed class of them. In order to help lower the uncertainty in commercializing them, we evaluate and find the upper limits of severity for some common issues that can occur within the communication systems on which a primal-dual-based DERMS relies on; these include packet losses, link failures, and delays. This information can help a DERMS operator decide on the specifications for the communication infrastructure it will invest in for the DERMS. Our evaluation is based on numerical simulations of a real-world feeder with around 2,000 nodes and a DERMS that controls 163 PV generators and 140 energy storage batteries. In general, we found that the DERMS becomes less resistant to communication issues as the information flows closer to the DERs implementing the controllable power injections.

communication delay↗

A Framework for Assessment of Autonomy Challenges in Air Traffic Management

Traditionally, air traffic management services have been provided by air traffic controllers and managers stationed in ground facilities, employed or contracted by the public sector, and supported by automation. These centralized, human-centric air traffic management services do not scale to accommodate increasing demands from conventional and new entrant operations for access to the national airspace system. One transformation that provides much needed scalability is increasing the level of autonomy of air traffic management by enabling edge agents of the system, including vehicles, operators, and third-party service suppliers, to collectively self-manage independently from the centralized service providers and enabling the automation to also take on more independent traffic management responsibility from the human agents. This paper identifies challenges to increasing the level of autonomy of air traffic management services. It describes a framework to enable a systematic identification of these challenges. The framework consists of a functional breakdown of air traffic management services and several dimensions characterizing different autonomy scales. The autonomy dimensions include the automation level between human and machine agents, the locus of control between centralized and distributed edge agents, cognitive activities for autonomous situation awareness and decision making, intelligence levels ranging from skill-based to expertise-based autonomous behavior, and uncertainty levels of the dynamics and environment in which autonomous agents operate. Several challenges are identified and categorized using the different dimensions of the autonomy framework.

automation, autonomy framework, collective autonom↗

Analysis of SCALE Criticality and Sensitivity Calculations for Reflected HEU Cylinders

The SCALE code package offers multiple nuclear data libraries and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) methods supporting and derived from Monte Carlo (MC) transport. The CSAS and TSUNAMI-3D sequences use KENO MC, utilizing either continuous-energy (CE) cross sections or multigroup (MG) cross section libraries. TSUNAMI-3D has two CE calculational methods: the iterated fission probability (IFP) method, and the Contribution-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method. Previous work has shown poor agreement between CLUTCH and confirmatory direct perturbation calculations in specific applications (e.g., fissionable and polyethylene reflectors). The HEU-MET-FAST-084 (HMF-084) International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project evaluation consists of 27 cylindrical highly enriched uranium metal cores with 14 unique reflector materials of 0.5 and 1 in. thicknesses. Included in this list of reflector materials are natural uranium and polyethylene. This work utilized SCALE 6.2.4 models of the HMF-084 evaluation, with additional non-physical configurations to test both the MG bias and CLUTCH functionality across a variety of reflector material thicknesses. The evaluation’s use of concentric cylinders allowed for examination of several MG self-shielding methods: infinite homogenous, cylindrical, and spherical. The results indicate that the use of polyethylene reflectors with CLUTCH is not fundamentally impossible but sensitive to geometry. The poor performance of CLUTCH with fissionable reflectors was reaffirmed. The 2 in. and greater polyethylene-reflected calculations demonstrate the necessity of using the 302-group library for fast systems. The nickel MG bias was substantial, as discussed in a companion paper, as were cobalt and iron.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Shuttle Era

In May 2010 the National Research Council (NRC) was asked by NASA to address several questions related to the Astronaut Corps. The NRC's Committee on Human Spaceflight Crew Operations was tasked to: 1. How should the role and size of the activities managed by the Johnson Space Center Flight Crew Operations Directorate change following space shuttle retirement and completion of the assembly of the International Space Station (ISS)? 2. What are the requirements for crew-related ground-based facilities after the Space Shuttle program ends? 3. Is the fleet of aircraft used for training the Astronaut Corps a cost-effective means of preparing astronauts to meet the requirements of NASA's human spaceflight program? Are there more cost-effective means of meeting these training requirements? Although the future of NASA's human spaceflight program has garnered considerable discussion in recent years, and there is considerable uncertainty about what that program will involve in the coming years, the committee was not tasked to address whether or not human spaceflight should continue, or what form it should take. The committee's task restricted it to studying those activities managed by the Flight Crew Operations Directorate, or those closely related to its activities, such as crew-related ground-based facilities and the training aircraft.

Source record↗

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Global FEP catalogs describe important natural and man-made repository system features and identify events and processes that may affect these features into the future. By combining FEPs, many of which are uncertain, different possible future system evolution scenarios are derived. Repository licensing should consider both the reference or “base” evolution as well as alternative futures that may lead to radiation release, pollution, or exposures. Scenarios are used to derive and consider both base and alternative evolutions, often through production of scenario-specific SA models and the recombination of their results into an assessment of the risk of harm. Furthermore, while the FEP-based scenario development process outlined here has evolved somewhat since its development in the 1980s, the fundamental ideas remain unchanged. A spectrum of common approaches is given here (e.g., bottom–up vs. top–down scenario development, probabilistic vs. bounding handling of uncertainty), related to how individual numerical models for possible futures are converted into a determination as to whether the system is safe (i.e., how aleatoric uncertainty and scenarios are integrated through bounding or Monte Carlo approaches).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility GoldSim System Model

This report documents the development of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) trench system model. The GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software is utilized to model the release and transport of radiological inventory disposed (both currently and in the future) within Engineered and Slit Trenches. This model is in support of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the ELLWF Performance Assessment. The ELLWF system model utilizes a hybrid-approach to accurately describe the disposal system. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model provides the infiltration data to both PORFLOW and GoldSim. PORFLOW is used to calibrate the GoldSim model to ensure confidence in the stochastic results. Finally, the concentrations from GoldSim transport simulations are fed into the SRNL Dose Toolkit to calculate dose impacts and assess plume interaction

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A bootstrapping approach to social media quantification

Abstract This work considers the use of classifiers in a downstream aggregation task estimating class proportions, such as estimating the percentage of reviews for a movie with positive sentiment. We derive the bias and variance of the class proportion estimator when taking classification error into account to determine how to best trade off different error types when tuning a classifier for these tasks. Additionally, we propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that correctly adjusts for classification error when estimating these statistics. We conduct experiments on four document classification tasks comparing our methods to prior approaches across classifier thresholds, sample sizes, and label distributions. Prior approaches have focused on providing the most accurate point estimate while this work focuses on the creation of correct confidence intervals that appropriately account for classifier error. Compared to the prior approaches, our methods provide lower error and more accurate confidence intervals.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Theoretical and calculable dependent variables and their covariance in nuclear data libraries [Slides]

This presentation begins by defining observables, including theoretical observable, calculable observable, and measured observable. It also provides definitions and examples of experimental effects. Additionally, uncertainty in evaluated libraries and a metric to probe evaluated uncertainty is presented. In conclusion, being related to theoretical quantities such as resonance parameters, the uncertainty in ENDF libraries (e.g., ENDF/B-VIII.0) can be overestimated because it is usually evaluated under the guidance of experimental uncertainty: lim Δσexp.corr.→0 Δσ = Δσ theoretical model . The presentation states that a clear distinction of the uncertainty between nuclear theoretical models and experimental corrections should be revisited and this is important since (e.g., transport) simulations need theoretical quantities convoluted with specific operational parameters and material configurations. It also states that strong coupling between uncertainty quantification methodologies and optimization procedures exists, and it is necessary to develop methodologies to obtain uncertainty on theoretical models from physical and mathematical constraints.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Entry Descent and Landing Workshop Proceedings: Cost Drivers - Volume 1

Provide some perspective on characteristics or features which drive the cost of the EDL Instrumentation. Using MEDLI, MEDLI2, EFT1, and Ares I-X as case studies. Need to consider what program is funding the effort and how that program likes to manage projects. Need to define the limits of the measurement subsystem - what is being provided and implemented - and by whom. The yearly end of fiscal year drama will always introduce uncertainty which will impact the cost - and cost phasing.

Wright, Henry↗