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NASA NTRS2014

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗

NASA NTRS1972

Radiative lifetimes and absolute oscillator strengths for the SiO A/super 1/Pi to X/super 1/Sigma+ transition.

Measurement of a radiative lifetime of 9.6 (plus or minus 1.0) nsec for the SiO A(super 1)Pi state is reported. RKR Franck-Condon factors have been computed and, with these, absolute oscillator strengths are calculated. A band system at 3022 A has been found that may be due to SiO+, but the band is not resolved at our experimental resolution, and identification remains uncertain. The upper state of the carrier of this spectrum has a radiative lifetime of 8.3 (plus or minus 0.8) nsec.

Smith, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Progress on Intelligent Guidance and Control for Wind Shear Encounter

Low altitude wind shear poses a serious threat to air safety. Avoiding severe wind shear challenges the ability of flight crews, as it involves assessing risk from uncertain evidence. A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The primary functions of a cockpit advisory expert system for wind shear avoidance are discussed. Also introduced are computational techniques being implemented to enable these primary functions.

Stratton, D. Alexander↗

NASA NTRS1991

A design rationale for NASA TileWorld

Automated systems that can operate in unrestricted real-world domains are still well beyond current computational capabilities. This paper argues that isolating essential problem characteristics found in real-world domains allows for a careful study of how particular control systems operate. By isolating essential problem characteristics and studying their impact on autonomous system performance, we should be able to more quickly deliver systems for practical real-world problems. For our research on planning, scheduling, and control, we have selected three particular domain attributes to study: exogenous events, uncertain action outcome, and metric time. We are not suggesting that studies of these attributes in isolation are sufficient to guarantee the obvious goals of good methodology, brilliant architectures, or first-class results; however, we are suggesting that such isolation facilitates the achievement of these goals. To study these attributes, we have developed the NASA TileWorld. We describe the NASA TileWorld simulator in general terms, present an example NASA TileWorld problem, and discuss some of our motivations and concerns for NASA TileWorld.

Philips, Andrew B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Alkali Metal Rankine Cycle Boiler Technology Challenges and Some Potential Solutions for Space Nuclear Power and Propulsion Applications

Alkali metal boilers are of interest for application to future space Rankine cycle power conversion systems. Significant progress on such boilers was accomplished in the 1960's and early 1970's, but development was not continued to operational systems since NASA's plans for future space missions were drastically curtailed in the early 1970's. In particular, piloted Mars missions were indefinitely deferred. With the announcement of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) in July 1989 by President Bush, interest was rekindled in challenging space missions and, consequently in space nuclear power and propulsion. Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) were proposed for interplanetary space vehicles, particularly for Mars missions. The potassium Rankine power conversion cycle became of interest to provide electric power for NEP vehicles and for 'dual-mode' NTP vehicles, where the same reactor could be used directly for propulsion and (with an additional coolant loop) for power. Although the boiler is not a major contributor to system mass, it is of critical importance because of its interaction with the rest of the power conversion system; it can cause problems for other components such as excess liquid droplets entering the turbine, thereby reducing its life, or more critically, it can drive instabilities-some severe enough to cause system failure. Funding for the SEI and its associated technology program from 1990 to 1993 was not sufficient to support significant new work on Rankine cycle boilers for space applications. In Fiscal Year 1994, funding for these challenging missions and technologies has again been curtailed, and planning for the future is very uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to review the technologies developed in the 1960's and 1970's in the light of the recent SEI applications. In this way, future Rankine cycle boiler programs may be conducted most efficiently. This report is aimed at evaluating alkali metal boiler technology for space Rankine cycle systems. Research is summarized on the problems of flow stability, liquid carryover, pressure drop and heat transfer, and on potential solutions developed, primarily those developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center in the 1960's and early 1970's.

Stone, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systematic Source Determination and X-Ray Radiography Detection of Nonuniformities on High-Density Carbon Ablators

Recent deuterium-tritium (D-T)–layered implosion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have achieved a burning plasma and >1-MJ neutron yield. A series of repeat experiments have shown that the degree of performance is very likely dependent on capsule quality, including the quantity of what are collectively termed “high- Z particles.” These particles are detected on a custom-built radiography system, known as the Sagometer, during the final target qualification process. The term particles is misleading, as the source of these nonuniformities in the capsule images is uncertain; the term detection will be used instead. An increased number of D-T targets have been rejected at the final stages of production due to Sagometer detections. Late detections are deleterious in terms of loss of production parts, effort, and overall operating efficiency. In response, we undertook an effort to determine the origin of these detections and to ultimately mitigate target losses caused by them. Through careful testing and analysis, we have determined neither insufficient production cleanliness nor hohlraum shedding is responsible for the detections on the capsule. Here, we determined that the detections are inherent to the capsule and have made efforts to use the Zeiss Xradia to identify them earlier in the production process. While testing revealed the Xradia is not currently sufficient for identifying such particles using radiography images, we continue to look to other forms of metrology to down select the capsules early in the process.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1991

951 Gaspra - A pre-Galileo estimate of its surface evolution

An effort is made to quantitatively model the collisional environment and surface evolution of asteroid 951 Gaspra prior to the flyby of the Galileo spacecraft later this year. Gaspra's average intrinsic collisional probability is calculated to be 5.4 x 10 to the -18th/sq km per year with a root mean square impact velocity of 5.0 km/sec. The projectile population and impact strength for Gaspra are highly uncertain and a range of values is considered. Based on these models, Gaspra is unlikely to be a primordial object surviving from the beginning of the solar system. It is most likely a second or multiple generation fragment forming about 100 million yr ago. For a low impact flux, the crater size distribution directly reveals the size distribution of the impacting population. For a nonequilibrium surface, model-dependent isochrons for estimating the age of the surface are given. Lower limits are set by the model for Gaspra's age (about 1 billion yr) and flux for the case of a high impact flux producing an equilibrium surface.

Namiki, Noriyuki↗

NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Control of Plans with Temporal Uncertainty

Certain planning systems that deal with quantitative time constraints have used an underlying Simple Temporal Problem solver to ensure temporal consistency of plans. However, many applications involve processes of uncertain duration whose timing cannot be controlled by the execution agent. These cases require more complex notions of temporal feasibility. In previous work, various "controllability" properties such as Weak, Strong, and Dynamic Controllability have been defined. The most interesting and useful Controllability property, the Dynamic one, has ironically proved to be the most difficult to analyze. In this paper, we resolve the complexity issue for Dynamic Controllability. Unexpectedly, the problem turns out to be tractable. We also show how to efficiently execute networks whose status has been verified.

Morris, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Ten-Year Global Record of Absorbing Aerosols Above Clouds from OMI's Near-UV Observations

Aerosol-cloud interaction continues to be one of the leading uncertain components of climate models, primarily due to the lack of an adequate knowledge of the complex microphysical and radiative processes associated with the aerosol-cloud system. The situations when aerosols and clouds are found in the same atmospheric column, for instance, when light-absorbing aerosols such as biomass burning generated carbonaceous particles or wind-blown dust overlay low-level cloud decks, are commonly found over several regional of the world. Contrary to the cloud-free scenario over dark surface, for which aerosols are known to produce a net cooling effect (negative radiative forcing) on climate, the overlapping situation of absorbing aerosols over cloud can potentially exert a significant level of atmospheric absorption and produces a positive radiative forcing at top-of-atmosphere. The magnitude of direct radiative effects of aerosols above cloud depends directly on the aerosol loading, microphysical-optical properties of the aerosol layer and the underlying cloud deck, and geometric cloud fraction. We help in addressing this problem by introducing a novel product of optical depth of absorbing aerosols above clouds retrieved from near-UV observations made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA's Aura platform. The presence of absorbing aerosols above cloud reduces the upwelling radiation reflected by cloud and produces a strong 'color ratio' effect in the near-UV region, which can be unambiguously detected in the OMI measurements. Physically based on this effect, the OMACA algorithm retrieves the optical depths of aerosols and clouds simultaneously under a prescribed state of atmosphere. The algorithm architecture and results from a ten-year global record including global climatology of frequency of occurrence and above-cloud aerosol optical depth, and a discussion on related future field campaigns are presented.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Navigation & Environment Characterization in the Planar-Restricted Two-Body Problem

As science, exploration, and commercial space missions become increasingly complex, so does the need for efficient, autonomous, and integrated spacecraft navigation and operations techniques. Key operational functions, including data collection and transmission, environment characterization, systems constraints, human factors, and navigation, often are intertwined and conflicted. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers a framework for addressing integrated spacecraft navigation and planning in an uncertain dynamical environment. The goal of this study is to evaluate the utility of DRL for integrated spacecraft navigation and planning. This is achieved by developing a simple environmental characterization training environment in the Planar-Restricted 2-Body Problem (PR2BP), establishing benchmarks and heuristic baselines, and designing a previously unstudied Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation. This MDP formulation enables the spacecraft DRL agents to appropriately balance navigation and actuation capabilities. The resulting DRL-derived policy exceeds a random or untrained policy and meets or exceeds the level of performance of a heuristic without actuation. In the process, valuable intuition is gained about the problem with insight into how DRL methods could scale to increasingly more realistic scenarios, including net-work design and training architectures, efficient state space representations, and methods for encouraging exploration in a parametric action space, among others.

navigation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linear and Nonlinear Solvers for Simulating Multiphase Flow within Large-Scale Engineered Subsurface Systems

Simulation of multiphase flow in the subsurface is well-known to be computationally challenging. While there have been many studies that have explored approaches to overcoming these challenges, they often utilize relatively simple case studies. In this paper, we focus on the unique numerical challenges posed by modeling large-scale engineered subsurface systems, characterized by discrete features embedded in a heterogeneous natural subsurface setting. The man-made features such as shafts, tunnels, and barriers often cause multiple challenges in modeling the domain for multiphase porous media flow. This flow scenario can have a wide range of applications such as nuclear waste repositories, enhanced recovery of a petroleum reservoir, geothermal engineering, and carbon sequestration. An example of these severe numerical challenges is the case of performance assessment (PA) for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the only operating deep geological repository in the US, which simulates extreme material properties of bedded salt rock formation and extreme contrast due to open excavation next to the formation. The models have extremes not only of permeability and porosity but also of the constitutive models needed for multiphase flow; additionally, they have process models like salt creep closure reducing porosity over time, fracturing in clay and anhydrite interbeds of the bedded salt, gas generation from the waste materials, and unintentional human borehole intrusions in some scenarios. Numerical simulations require the solution of coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs; in our work, we use the open-source simulator PFLOTRAN which is based on Finite Volume discretization. The solution of the nonlinear equations requires use of the Newton-Raphson iteration at each time step, which entails the solution of the linearized Jacobian system at each iteration. The effects of all the processes (i.e., large number of unknowns, highly nonlinear constitutive relations, large contrasts in material properties in short distances) lead to an ill-conditioned Jacobian matrix that severely challenges traditional linear solver, i.e., stabilized biconjugate gradient with block Jacobi incomplete LU preconditioner (BCGS-ILU) leading to non-convergence for traditional Newton-Raphson nonlinear solver causing unacceptably long computation time for each model. This paper presents linear solvers such as constrained pressure residual (CPR) two-stage preconditioner with alternate-block-factorization (ABF) and quasi- implicit pressure and explicit saturation (QIMPES) decouplers and flexible generalized residual solver (FGMRES). The new general-purpose nonlinear solver, Newton trust-region dogleg Cauchy (NTRDC), is also introduced to resolve extreme nonlinearities in the models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of each method relative to the default BCGS-Newton solver. The two best cases had nearly 50 times speed-up and achieved completion of a simulation in 14 hours that never completed due to non-convergence with the default solver. We also investigate the strong scalability of each method and discuss some of the deficiencies found for Block Jacobi preconditioner using parallel domain decomposition, and node packing effects of modern processor architecture.

Preconditioner, Nonlinear, Porous media, Multiphas↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle remote manipulator system using H2 and H(infinity) optimization

Three linear controllers are desiged to regulate the end effector of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) operating in Position Hold Mode. In this mode of operation, jet firings of the Orbiter can be treated as disturbances while the controller tries to keep the end effector stationary in an orbiter-fixed reference frame. The three design techniques used include: the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), H2 optimization, and H-infinity optimization. The nonlinear SRMS is linearized by modelling the effects of the significant nonlinearities as uncertain parameters. Each regulator design is evaluated for robust stability in light of the parametric uncertanties using both the small gain theorem with an H-infinity norm and the less conservative micro-analysis test. All three regulator designs offer significant improvement over the current system on the nominal plant. Unfortunately, even after dropping performance requirements and designing exclusively for robust stability, robust stability cannot be achieved. The SRMS suffers from lightly damped poles with real parametric uncertainties. Such a system renders the micro-analysis test, which allows for complex peturbations, too conservative.

Prakash, OM, II↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven analysis of relight variability of jet fuels induced by turbulence

For safety purposes, reliable reignition of aircraft engines in the event of flame blow-out is a critical requirement. Typically, an external ignition source in the form of a spark is used to achieve a stable flame in the combustor. However, such forced turbulent ignition may not always successfully relight the combustor, mainly because the state of the combustor cannot be precisely determined. Uncertainty in the turbulent flow inside the combustor, inflow conditions, and spark discharge characteristics can lead to variability in sparking outcomes even for nominally identical operating conditions. Prior studies have shown that of all the uncertain parameters, turbulence is often dominant and can drastically alter ignition behavior. For instance, even when different fuels have similar ignition delay times, their ignition behavior in practical systems can be completely different. In practical operating conditions, it is challenging to understand why ignition fails and how much variation in outcomes can be expected. The focus of this work is to understand relight variability induced by turbulence for two different aircraft fuels, namely Jet-A and a variant named C1. A detailed, previously developed simulation approach is used to generate a large number of successful and failed ignition events. Using this data, the cause of misfire is evaluated based on a discriminant analysis that delineates the difference between turbulent initial conditions that lead to ignition or failure. From the discriminant analysis, a compressed sensing algorithm is then applied to help pinpoint the locations of relevant turbulent features. Findings from the discriminant analysis are confirmed with the time history of near kernel properties. Next, a clustering strategy is used to identify ignition and misfire modes. With this approach, it was determined that the cause of ignition failure is different for the two fuels. While it was found that Jet-A is influenced by fuel entrainment, C1 was found to be more sensitive to small scale turbulence features. Finally, a larger variability is found in the ignition modes of C1, which can be subject to extreme events induced by kernel breakdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Glacial fluctuations in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination and implications for tropical climate following the Last Glacial Maximum

The tropics are a dynamic component of the global climate system and exert a profound influence on modern climate variability. Yet the role of the tropics in past climate changes, for example during the last glacial termination, is uncertain. This uncertainty is due in part to the relative paucity of terrestrial temperature records from the tropics, which hinders efforts to understand the mechanisms that influenced deglacial warming and abrupt climate events. Tropical glaciers are sensitive to changes in climate, and mapping and dating past tropical glacial fluctuations provides a valuable record of terrestrial climate changes in the low latitudes. We report a chronology of past glacial extents in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda (0.3°N, 29.9°E) based on 51 beryllium-10 ( 10 Be) surface-exposure ages from three separate glacial catchments. Results indicate that Rwenzori glaciers retreated considerably during Heinrich Stadial 1. The rate of net glacial recession slowed between ~15 and 11 ka, although glaciers continued to retreat during this period. Rwenzori glaciers then retreated more rapidly during the early Holocene. The Rwenzori glacial chronology is broadly similar to glacial chronologies reconstructed elsewhere in East Africa and in tropical South America. We suggest that this similarity may reflect coherent, tropics-wide temperature fluctuations during the last deglaciation. We report that the Rwenzori glacial chronology provides crucial information on the global footprint of deglacial warming and abrupt climate events and, thus, the potential mechanisms that influenced tropical climate during the last glacial termination.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Np(VI) Nitrate Speciation Control through Temperature and Optical Spectroscopy

Numerous areas of nuclear processing, such as radioisotope production, nuclear waste remediation, and separations, depend upon the speciation of f-elements in the solution state. However, fundamental knowledge of the actinides─particularly Np─lags behind most of the elements on the periodic table. Despite the importance of Np(VI) chemistry in separations and nuclear processing, its speciation in HNO 3 remains uncertain. This work addresses some of these gaps by investigating the effect of HNO 3 concentration and temperature on the spectra and speciation of the Np(VI) nitrate system. Six samples of Np in 1 to 10 M HNO 3 were prepared and treated with (NH 4 ) 2 [Ce(NO 3 ) 6 ] to stabilize the hexavalent oxidation state. The absorbance spectrum of the 10 M HNO 3 is drastically different from the spectra of the other samples; the 10 M spectrum indicates coordination of nitrate ligands to the Np(VI)O 2 2+ ion to form a complex with high symmetry. Additionally, absorbance spectra were recorded over the temperature range of 15 to 40 °C, and systematic increases and decreases in certain spectral features of the ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis)–near-infrared (NIR) spectra are present in the spectra. The difference in spectral features suggests that Np(VI) nitrate speciation depends on temperature. Dilution studies of this sample were monitored with UV–vis–NIR and Raman spectroscopies. Spectral data indicate the presence of multiple complexes with different symmetries, including a high-symmetry complex with an inversion center. As samples are diluted and aquo ligands replace nitrate ligands bound to the Np(VI) neptunyl cation, changes in spectroscopic signals indicate a decrease in the high-symmetry nitrate complex and an increase in the lower-symmetry aquo complex. Additionally, the Raman band associated with the Np(VI)O 2 2+ symmetric stretch broadens with dilution and is fitted with two peaks. These peaks are assigned to Np(VI) aquo and nitrato complexes, indicating that this vibrational mode is sensitive to the coordination environment of the Np(VI) neptunyl cation and that contributions from these two Np(VI) complexes can be distinguished. This unique experimental data could be used to advance computational models describing the electronic transitions of complex actinyl ions.

Absorption↗

NASA NTRS2001

General Temporal Knowledge for Planning and Data Mining

We consider the architecture of systems that combine temporal planning and plan execution and introduce a layer of temporal reasoning that potential1y improves both the communication between humans and such systems, and the performance of the temporal planner itself. In particular, this additional layer simultaneously supports more flexibility in specifying and maintaining temporal constraints on plans within an uncertain and changing execution environment, and the ability to understand and trace the progress of plan execution. It is shown how a representation based on single set of abstractions of temporal information can be used to characterize the reasoning underlying plan generation and execution interpretation. The complexity of such reasoning is discussed.

Morris, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Grid Strength under Uncertain Renewable Generation

The increasing displacement of synchronous generators with renewable resources such as wind and solar via power electronic interfaces causes a reduction in short-circuit strength and weak grid issues. The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy increase challenges for identifying weak grid conditions. This paper proposes an efficient method to analyze the impact of uncertain renewable energy on grid strength. The proposed method uses the probabilistic collocation method (PCM) to approximate the results of grid strength assessment under uncertain renewable generation, in order to reduce computational burden without compromising result accuracy when compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method integrates the K-means clustering technique with PCM to select the approximation samples of input variables. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with MCS on the modified IEEE 9-bus system and modified IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators.

grid strength↗