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At least 577 records · Page 32

An evaluation of the consistency of extremes in gridded precipitation data sets

Noting a strong imperative to understand precipitation extremes, and that considerable uncertainty affects observational data sets, this paper compares the representation of extremes in a number of widely used daily gridded products, derived from rain gauge data, satellite retrieval and reanalysis for the conterminous United States. Analysis is based upon the concept of “tail dependence” arising in multivariate extreme value theory, and we infer the level of temporal dependence in the joint tail of the precipitation probability distribution for pairwise comparisons of products. In this way, we consider the range of products more like an ensemble and examine the relationships between members, and do not attempt to define, or compare products to, some ground truth. Linear correlation between products is also computed. Considerable discrepancy between groups of products, both annually and seasonally, is linked to source data and complex terrain. In particular, products based on rain gauge data showed remarkable similarity, but differed considerably, showing almost total loss of extremal dependence during DJF in mountainous regions, when compared with satellite products. Additionally, simulated re-forecasts revealed reasonable temporal agreement with large scale generated extremes. The diversity and extent of discrepancies identified across all products raises important questions about their use, and we urge caution, particularly for products derived from satellite data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Real-Time Detection and Tracking of Spatio-Temporal Features: Blob-Filaments in Fusion Plasma [Spatio-Temporal Features in Large Irregular Data: Blob-Filaments in Fusion Plasma]

This work was originally motivated the need to identify and track blob filaments, a feature often associated with instability in magnetically confined fusion plasma. Understanding and mitigating such instability would improve fusion reactors and make fusion a truly inexhaustible source of clean energy. Similar spatio-temporal features are important in many other applications, for example, ignition kernels in combustion and tumor cells in a medical image. This work presents an approach for extracting these features by dividing the overall task into three steps: local identification of feature cells, grouping feature cells into extended feature, and tracking movement of feature through overlapping in space. Through our extensive work in parallelization, we demonstrate that this approach can effectively make use of a large number of compute nodes to detect and track blobs in fusion plasma. On a set of 4.3TB data, we observed linear speedup on 1024 processes and completed blob detection in less than three milliseconds using Edison, a Cray XC30 system at NERSC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Layer-wise Imaging Dataset from Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Machine Learning Applications (Peregrine v2022-10.1)

This release consists of six datasets which together include multi-modal layer-wise powder bed images from two different powder bed printing technologies. These datasets are designed primarily to facilitate the development and testing of new computer vision and machine learning based anomaly and defect detection algorithms. The authors provide both training data with corresponding ground truth pixel masks and evaluation data with corresponding baseline prediction pixel masks made by a trained neural network. The laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) datasets are sourced from EOS M290 and AddUp FormUp 350 printers and the binder jet (BJ) dataset is sourced from an ExOne M-Flex printer. The materials represented in these datasets include 17-4 PH Stainless Steel, GammaPrint-700, Inconel 718, Maraging Steel, and H13 Steel. The sensor imaging modalities represented include visible-light (VL), temporally-integrated (i.e., long duration exposure) near-infrared (TI-NIR), and wide-band infrared (IR). To download the dataset: (1) Create a Globus account. (2) Create a Globus Endpoint on your computer. (3) Transfer the dataset from the OLCF DOI-DOWNLOADS Collection to your Collection. Common troubleshooting steps: (a) Confirm that the transfer is going from OLCF DOI-DOWNLOADS to your Collection. (b) Create an exception for Globus in your antivirus software so that it can create an Endpoint. (c) Manually create a Globus access directory (where the data will be downloaded) by going to the Preferences > Access tab.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of Inflow Spatiotemporal Discretization on Wake Meandering and Turbine Structural Response using FAST.Farm

FAST.Farm is a newly developed multiphysics, midfidelity engineering tool that can be used to predict turbine power and structural loads of wind turbines in a wind farm with minimal computational expense. Previous studies have shown similarities and differences in wind turbine performance between FAST.Farm and high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LES) using both LES precursor-generated inflow and TurbSim-generated synthetic inflow. While conservative resolutions have been used to date, no formal spatial or temporal discretization study has been performed for the FAST.Farm model wind domains. This work aims to study the effects of varying the spatial and temporal discretization of the wind domains on wake meandering (low-resolution domain) and turbine structural response (high-resolution domains) and resulting wake and load calculations. The purpose of this study is to establish convergence criteria and recommendations for discretization values in terms of rotor diameter (D, expressed in meters) that will maximize computational efficiency. To ensure a percent error of ≤ 1% in standard deviation of wake center position relative to the finest included resolution, a low-resolution time step of 0.024D s, 0.016D s, and 0.0079D s and a low-resolution spatial discretization of 0.079D m, 0.16D m, and 0.24D m is recommended for 8 m/s, 12 m/s, and 18 m/s mean ambient wind speed at hub height, respectively. These guidelines are likely applicable to other implementations of the dynamic wake meandering model. To ensure a percent error of ≤ 1% in standard deviation of all considered structural response outputs, a high-resolution time step that captures the highest influential excitation and natural frequencies in the system and a high-resolution spatial discretization comparable to the maximum airfoil cord length is recommended. Lastly, these guidelines are likely applicable to any aeroelastic analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Spatio-Temporal Characterization of Synchrophasor Data Against Spoofing Attacks in Smart Grids

“Source ID Mix” has emerged as a new type of highly deceiving attack which can alter the source information of synchrophasor data measured by multiple phasor measurement units, thereby paralyzing many wide-area measurement systems applications. To address such sophisticated cyber attacks, we have exploited the spatio-temporal characteristics of synchrophasor data for authenticating measurements’ source information. Specifically, the source authentication is performed when the measurements are subjected to three types of spoofing attacks. Some practical difficulties in applying the proposed method on real-time authentication caused by insufficient measurement data have also been solved. Experimental results with real synchrophasor measurements have validated the effectiveness of the proposed method in detecting such complicated data spoofing and improving power systems’ cyber security.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AMR-Wind: A Performance-Portable, High-Fidelity Flow Solver for Wind Farm Simulations

We present AMR-Wind, a verified and validated high-fidelity computational-fluid-dynamics code for wind farm flows. AMR-Wind is a block-structured, adaptive-mesh, incompressible-flow solver that enables predictive simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer and wind plants. It is a highly scalable code designed for parallel high-performance computing with a specific focus on performance portability for current and future computing architectures, including graphical processing units (GPUs). In this paper, we detail the governing equations, the numerical methods, and the turbine models. Establishing a foundation for the correctness of the code, we present the results of formal verification and validation. The verification studies, which include a novel actuator line test case, indicate that AMR-Wind is spatially and temporally second-order accurate. The validation studies demonstrate that the key physics capabilities implemented in the code, including actuator disk models, actuator line models, turbulence models, and large eddy simulation (LES) models for atmospheric boundary layers, perform well in comparison to reference data from established computational tools and theory. We conclude with a demonstration simulation of a 12-turbine wind farm operating in a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer, detailing computational performance and realistic wake interactions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Blind identification of full-field vibration modes of output-only structures from uniformly-sampled, possibly temporally-aliased (sub-Nyquist), video measurements

Enhancing the spatial and temporal resolution of vibration measurements and modal analysis could significantly benefit dynamic modelling, analysis, and health monitoring of structures. For example, spatially high-density mode shapes are critical for accurate vibration-based damage localization. In experimental or operational modal analysis, higher (frequency) modes, which may be outside the frequency range of the measurement, contain local structural features that can improve damage localization as well as the construction and updating of the modal-based dynamic model of the structure. In general, the resolution of vibration measurements can be increased by enhanced hardware. Traditional vibration measurement sensors such as accelerometers have high-frequency sampling capacity; however, they are discrete point-wise sensors only providing sparse, low spatial sensing resolution measurements, while dense deployment to achieve high spatial resolution is expensive and results in the mass-loading effect and modification of structure's surface. Non-contact measurement methods such as scanning laser vibrometers provide high spatial and temporal resolution sensing capacity; however, they make measurements sequentially that requires considerable acquisition time. As an alternative non-contact method, digital video cameras are relatively low-cost, agile, and provide high spatial resolution, simultaneous, measurements. Combined with vision based algorithms (e.g., image correlation or template matching, optical flow, etc.), video camera based measurements have been successfully used for experimental and operational vibration measurement and subsequent modal analysis. However, the sampling frequency of most affordable digital cameras is limited to 30–60 Hz, while high-speed cameras for higher frequency vibration measurements are extremely costly. This work develops a computational algorithm capable of performing vibration measurement at a uniform sampling frequency lower than what is required by the Shannon-Nyquist sampling theorem for output-only modal analysis. In particular, the spatio-temporal uncoupling property of the modal expansion of structural vibration responses enables a direct modal decoupling of the temporally-aliased vibration measurements by existing output-only modal analysis methods, yielding (full-field) mode shapes estimation directly. Then the signal aliasing properties in modal analysis is exploited to estimate the modal frequencies and damping ratios. Furthermore, the proposed method is validated by laboratory experiments where output-only modal identification is conducted on temporally-aliased acceleration responses and particularly the temporally-aliased video measurements of bench-scale structures, including a three-story building structure and a cantilever beam.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Apparatus for skidding sensitivity testing of energetic materials

A remote-operated apparatus for testing the detonation sensitivity of energetic materials is detailed. Using an air ram and rotating disk, the normal force and transverse velocity of the impact plane are controlled independently, enabling the exploration of varying impact conditions over a wide parameter space. A microcontroller local to the apparatus is used to automate apparatus operation and ensure temporal alignment of the impacting ram head with the rotating disk. Calculation of the firing parameters and issuing of operational commands are handled by a remote computer and relayed to the local microcontoller for execution at the hardware level. Finally, impact forces are taken from fast strain measurements obtained from gauges incorporated into the ram head. Infrared imaging of explosive samples provides insight to the peak thermal temperatures experienced at the sample surface during the impact event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Using extended MHD to explore lasers as a trigger for x-pinches

X-pinches have been shown to be a source of extremely intense x-ray emissions useful for diagnosing plasma dynamics and imaging biological objects. The most striking feature of an x-pinch is the hotspot, the point source from where all the x rays come from. Unfortunately, the exact timing and location of the hotspot are still unpredictable. Since an x-pinch hotspot forms from instabilities (like an m = 0 mode), we will computationally explore whether we can use a high-power laser to control the timing and location of these instabilities. Our goal is to reduce the temporal and spatial jitter associated with the x-ray burst. Using an extended MHD (XMHD) code, we explore the non-relativistic instability generation using a current profile of a 250 kA linear transformer driver system and laser characteristics of SLAC's Matter in Extreme Conditions laboratory. Our results include both laser-penetration results using a boundary-defined electromagnetic (EM) wave and instability results from a power-deposition method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Road Network State Estimation Using Random Forest Ensemble Learning

Network-scale travel time prediction not only enables traffic management centers (TMC) to proactively implement traffic management strategies, but also allows travelers make informed decisions about route choices between various origins and destinations. In this paper, a random forest estimator was proposed to predict travel time in a network. The estimator was trained using two years of historical travel time data for a case study network in St. Louis, Missouri. Both temporal and spatial effects were considered in the modeling process. The random forest models predicted travel times accurately during both congested and uncongested traffic conditions. The computational times for the models were low, thus useful for real-time traffic management and traveler information applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Model-free Load Control for High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation

This paper presents a new model-free control (MFC) mechanism that enables the local distribution level circuit consumption of the photovoltaic (PV) generation by local building loads, in particular, distributed heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) units. The local consumption of PV generation will help minimize the impact of PV generation on the distribution grid, reduce the required battery storage capacity for PV penetration, and increase solar PV generation penetration levels. The proposed MFC approach with its corresponding intelligent controllers does not require any precise modeling for buildings, where their reliable modeling is a demanding task. Even when assuming the availability of a good model, the various building architectures would compromise the performance objectives of any model-based control strategy. The objective is to consume most of the PV generation locally while maintaining occupants comfort and physical constraints of HVAC units. That is, by enabling proper scheduling of responsive loads temporally and spatially to minimize the difference between demand and PV production, it would be possible to reduce voltage variations and two-way power flow. Computer simulations show promising results where a significant proportion of the PV generation can be consumed by building HVAC units with the help of intelligent control.

Bara, Ouassim↗

DOE-ICoM/RIFT

Rapid Infrastructure Flood Tool (RIFT) is a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model based on the complete shallow water equations. RIFT has specifically been designed with rapid simulation in mind by utilizing commodity high performance computing technology and best-available nation-wide data. RIFT is used to predict the movement of water over land and resolve the spatial and temporal variability of flood depths, extent, and velocity. RIFT can be applied to many flood situations and has primarily been used to quantify flood extents from dam/levee failure or inland rainfall flooding.

Perkins, Bill [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fully Convolutional Spatio-Temporal Models for Representation Learning in Plasma Science

We have trained a fully convolutional spatio-temporal model for fast and accurate representation learning in the challenging exemplar application area of fusion energy plasma science. The onset of major disruptions is a critically important fusion energy science issue that must be resolved for advanced tokamak plasmas such as the $25B burning plasma international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) experiment. While a variety of statistical methods have been used to address the problem of tokamak disruption prediction and control, recent approaches based on deep learning have proven particularly compelling. In the present paper, we introduce further improvements to the fusion recurrent neural network (FRNN) software suite, which delivered cross-machine disruption predictions with unprecedented accuracy using a large database of experimental signals from two major tokamaks. Up to now, FRNN was based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) variant of recurrent neural networks to leverage the temporal information in the data. Here, we implement and apply the "temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)" architecture to the time-dependent input signals. Furthermore, this allows highly optimized convolution operations to carry the majority of the computational load of training, thus enabling a reduction in training time, and the effective use of high-performance computing resources for hyperparameter tuning. At the same time, the TCN-based architecture achieves better predictive performance when compared with the LSTM architecture for various tasks for a representative fusion database.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Higher-Order, Space-Time Adaptive Finite Volume Methods: Algorithms, Analysis and Applications

The four main goals outlined in the proposal for this project were: 1. Investigate the use of higher-order (in space and time) finite-volume methods for fluid flow problems. 2. Explore the embedding of iterative temporal methods within traditional block-structured AMR algorithms. 3. Develop parallel in time methods for ODEs and PDEs. 4. Work collaboratively with the Center for Computational Sciences and Engineering (CCSE) at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab towards incorporating new algorithms within existing DOE application codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Strategy and gaps for modeling, simulation, and control of hybrid systems

The purpose of this report is to establish a strategy for modeling and simulation of candidate hybrid energy systems. Modeling and simulation is necessary to design, evaluate, and optimize the system technical and economic performance. Accordingly, this report first establishes the simulation requirements to analysis candidate hybrid systems. Simulation fidelity levels are established based on the temporal scale, real and synthetic data availability or needs, solution accuracy, and output parameters needed to evaluate case-specific figures of merit. Accordingly, the associated computational and co-simulation resources needed are established; including physical models when needed, code assembly and integrated solutions platforms, mathematical solvers, and data processing. This report first attempts to describe the figures of merit, systems requirements, and constraints that are necessary and sufficient to characterize the grid and hybrid systems behavior and market interactions. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and effective cost of Effective Cost of Energy (ECE), as opposed to the standard Levelized Cost of Electricty (LCOE), are introduced as technical and economical indices for integrated energy system evaluations. Financial assessment methods are subsequently introduced for evaluation of non-traditional, hybrid energy systems. Algorithms for coupled and iterative evaluation of the technical and economic performance are subsequently discussed. This report further defines modeling objectives, computational tools, solution approaches, and real-time data collection and processing (in some cases using real test units) that will be required to model, co-simulate, and optimize; (a) an energy system components (e.g., power generation unit, chemical process, electricity management unit), (b) system domains (e.g., thermal, electrical or chemical energy generation, conversion, and transport), and (c) systems control modules. Co-simulation of complex, tightly coupled, dynamic energy systems requires multiple simulation tools, potentially developed in several programming languages and resolved on separate time scales. Whereas further investigation and development of hybrid concepts will provide a more complete understanding of the joint computational and physical modeling needs, this report highlights areas in which co-simulation capabilities are warranted. The current development status, quality assurance, availability and maintainability of simulation tools that are currently available for hybrid systems modeling is presented. Existing gaps in the modeling and simulation toolsets and development needs are subsequently discussed. This effort will feed into a broader Roadmap activity for designing, developing, and demonstrating hybrid energy systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Intrinsic feature-based pose measurement for imaging motion compensation

Systems and methods for generating motion corrected tomographic images are provided. A method includes obtaining first images of a region of interest (ROI) to be imaged and associated with a first time, where the first images are associated with different positions and orientations with respect to the ROI. The method also includes defining an active region in the each of the first images and selecting intrinsic features in each of the first images based on the active region. Second, identifying a portion of the intrinsic features temporally and spatially matching intrinsic features in corresponding ones of second images of the ROI associated with a second time prior to the first time and computing three-dimensional (3D) coordinates for the portion of the intrinsic features. Finally, the method includes computing a relative pose for the first images based on the 3D coordinates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path to failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗