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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced manufacturing and digital twin technology for nuclear energy*

Advanced manufacturing techniques and digital twin technology are rapidly transforming the nuclear industry, offering the potential to enhance productivity, safety, and cost-effectiveness. Customized parts are being produced using additive manufacturing, automation, and robotics, while digital twin technology enables the virtual modeling and optimization of complex systems. These advanced technologies can significantly improve operational efficiency, predict system behavior, and optimize maintenance schedules in the nuclear energy sector, leading to heightened safety and reduced downtime. However, the nuclear industry demands the highest levels of safety and security, as well as intricate manufacturing processes and operations. Thus, challenges such as data management and cybersecurity must be addressed to fully realize the potential of advanced manufacturing techniques and digital twin technology in the nuclear industry. This comprehensive review highlights the critical role of digital twin technology with advanced manufacturing toward nuclear energy to improve performance, minimize downtime, and heighten safety, ultimately contributing to the global energy mix by providing dependable and low-carbon electricity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of Ego Vehicle and System Level Benefits of Eco-Driving on Chassis Dynamometer

Eco-Driving with connected and automated vehicles has shown potential to reduce energy consumption of an individual (i.e., ego) vehicle by up to 15%. In a project funded by ARPA-E, a team led by Southwest Research Institute demonstrated an 8-12% reduction in energy consumption on a 2017 Prius Prime. This was demonstrated in simulation as well as chassis dynamometer testing. The authors presented a simulation study that demonstrated corridor-level energy consumption improvements by about 15%. This study was performed by modeling a six-kilometer-long urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio for traffic simulations. Five powertrain models consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles were developed. The design of experiment consisted of sweeps for various levels of traffic, penetration of smart vehicles, penetration of technology, and powertrain electrification. The large-scale simulation study consisted of doing approximately 96,000 powertrain simulations. A sophisticated clustering scheme was built and utilized to down select representative traces for each scenario from the simulation study for vehicle testing on a chassis dynamometer. Furthermore, this paper provides a summary of individual ego vehicle testing as well as a comprehensive overview of the method utilized for down selecting representative traces from large scale simulation studies that can be used to quantify corridor level benefits. Vehicle test results along with corresponding analyses are presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Simple, Revolutionary Approach to Waste Packaging Utilizing Proven Technology - 20201

Historically, removing hazardous waste from gloveboxes involves the use of bags as the primary containment method. This method can prove tedious, repetitive, and time consuming to ensure the process follows all safeguards required to contain the waste and mitigate any breach of containment. Layers of bags, yards of tape, and multiple filters are added to the waste stream in order to transfer the hazardous waste from the glovebox safely into the drum package. Then, finally, it can be shipped and disposed of. The process to cut, tie, and tape each bag for disposal involves manual effort by multiple operators. Following Administrative Safety Controls, good operators are able to safely perform those tasks; but, since the bag is the only confinement layer, incidents can occur. Operators, in some cases, are also at close proximity to this waste which may increase the risk of radiation exposure. Once the waste is transferred out through these bags, it is nearly impossible to remove packaged waste that may contain higher dosage levels, thus increasing drum disposal costs incurred by the facility. Exceeding the allowable radiation levels, and drums not fully filled, both contribute significantly to excess disposal costs. Central Research Laboratories (CRL), based in Red Wing Minnesota, has developed the Waste Drum Transfer System (WDTS) building upon the proven technology and containment of the Rapid Transfer Port (RTP) as an alternate, more efficient method of waste transfer. This solution consists of an RTP Alpha port mounted inside a glovebox and Beta assembly unit composed of a drum liner fitted inside a standard 55 gallon drum. The use of the Beta drum liner bypasses the typical use of bags, sleeves or tape to provide leak tight containment. The process to connect and disconnect a drum from the glovebox is achieved by the self-docking and rotating system controls of the RTP Alpha, all done with only one operator standing in an upright ergonomic position. This system also allows for greater flexibility in available Beta connection options, expanding the overall functionality of the system. This system can be disconnected and reconnected multiple times to maximize volume containment. This will minimize drum disposal costs and reduce the overall volume of waste output by more efficiently filling the drums. Radiation levels inside each drum can be monitored and adjusted more efficiently by operators utilizing the reconnect option. Minimal As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) levels are also achievable with this system. This paper will show how highly efficient packaging and disposal of hazardous waste can be accomplished in a cost-effective manner utilizing the proven RTP technology. Maximized operator productivity and safety, as well as minimized radiation dose exposure, are all attainable through the system's engineered controls. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low temperature hydrogen superpermeation in vanadium composite metal foil pumps

Palladium-based foil membranes are an effective option for hydrogen isotope recovery from the plasma exhaust of future fusion plants, but cost and availability are concerns. Vanadium (V) is a relatively low cost, neutron tolerant material with high hydrogen permeability. It has been well-studied as a superpermeable membrane at high temperature (>500 °C), but V displays negligible superpermeation at low temperature (75–200 °C) due to catalytic limitations. Composite membranes were fabricated by depositing thin layers (~100 nm) of either Pd or BCC PdCu on sputter-cleaned vanadium foils (100 μm). Symmetric membranes elevated superpermeation to levels approaching bulk Pd or PdCu foils, with ~5X higher flux in the latter reflecting the superior properties of PdCu. Asymmetric membranes revealed that the Pd-based catalyst layer was critical for both efficient absorption of superthermal hydrogen upstream as well as catalyzing re-combinative desorption downstream. At T ≥ 150 °C composite membrane superpermeation was equivalent to the Pd-based foils, but the flux was attenuated by a factor of 2-3X as the temperature was reduced. This deviation from pure foil performance coincided with the formation of vanadium hydride (β-V 2 H), which also impacted the transient response. Nevertheless, no embrittlement was observed under the conditions examined and elevating the temperature >150 °C removed the hydride and restored full performance. The achievement of palladium-level performance with a >99% reduction in Pd inventory makes these V composite metal foils pumps an attractive option for low temperature hydrogen isotope recovery in future fusion plants.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) [and subsequently titled] Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022) (Final Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the DOE Measurement Innovation grant DE-SC0017998 titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Edge and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2017-2019) and subsequently titled Neutral Atomic Beam Techniques for Diagnosis of Interior and Scrape-Off Layer Plasmas (2019-2022). The grant was funded by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) for the period 1 September 2017 – 31 May 2022. Work performed through the grant has resulted in diagnostic innovations and new measurement capabilities that could improve understanding of magnetic equilibrium, edge localized modes in tokamaks, and bootstrap and Pfirsch-Schlüter currents in stellarators. We have performed simulations of a novel non-hydrogen beam-based diagnostic that would determine a local value (in the plasma) of the poloidal flux function by measuring the toroidal angle of the beam particles' velocity at a detector external to the plasma. The approach is similar to that of a Heavy Ion Beam Probe (HIBP), but would be able to operate with a smaller, more economical detection systems and, in doing so, may enable substantial extension of scenarios in which beam-based diagnostics are deployed. Key results include: Identification of the neutral and singly charged atoms that are most appropriate for use in the beam based diagnostic and the ionization cross-sections that are important for studying the plasma edge of a large device; Development of a promising geometry for operation in which the beam is injected horizontally near the torus midplane; Implementation of simulations using banana orbit trajectories of secondary beam ions to access plasma regions that are commonly in-accessible to an HIBP diagnostic, including sample volumes near the X-point of a diverted tokamak; Assessment of the ability of the diagnostic concept (originally developed under the assumption of, and reliant on, symmetry) to work in stellarators by performing simulations with both quasi-symmetric fields and non-quasi-symmetric fields; Measurement of noise levels with a prototype detector on a stellarator and exploration of techniques to minimize effects of noise on a diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing Oxidation-Driven Amorphized Surfaces in a Ta(110) Film for Superconducting Qubit

Recent advances in superconducting qubit technology have led to significant progress in quantum computing, but the challenge of achieving a long coherence time remains. Despite the excellent lifetime performance that tantalum (Ta) based qubits have demonstrated to date, the majority of superconducting qubit systems, including Ta-based qubits, are generally believed to have uncontrolled surface oxidation as the primary source of the two-level system loss in two-dimensional transmon qubits. Therefore, atomic-scale insight into the surface oxidation process is needed to make progress toward a practical quantum processor. Here, in this study, the surface oxidation mechanism of native Ta films and its potential impact on the lifetime of superconducting qubits were investigated using advanced scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) techniques combined with density functional theory calculations. The results suggest an atomistic model of the oxidized Ta(110) surface, showing that oxygen atoms tend to penetrate the Ta surface and accumulate between the two outermost Ta atomic planes; oxygen accumulation at the level exceeding a 1:1 O/Ta ratio drives disordering and, eventually, the formation of an amorphous Ta 2 O 5 phase. In addition, we discuss how the formation of a noninsulating ordered TaO 1–δ (δ < 0.1) suboxide layer could further contribute to the losses of superconducting qubits. Subsurface oxidation leads to charge redistribution and electric polarization, potentially causing quasiparticle loss and decreased current-carrying capacity, thus affecting superconducting qubit coherence. The findings enhance the comprehension of the realistic factors that might influence the performance of superconducting qubits, thus providing valuable guidance for the development of future quantum computing hardware.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide

Formulation of targets and establishing which factors in different contexts will achieve these targets are critical to successful decarbonization of the building sector. To contribute to this, we have performed an evidence map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings (ZLECB) worldwide, including a list and classification of documents in an on-line geographical map, a description of gaps, and a narrative review of the knowledge gluts. We have retrieved 1219 scientific documents from Scopus, extracted metadata from 274 documents, and identified 117 roadmaps, policies or plans from 27 countries worldwide. We find that there is a coverage bias towards more developed regions. The identified scientific studies are mostly recommendations to policy makers, different types of case studies, and demonstration projects. The geographical inequalities found in the coverage of the scientific literature are even more extreme in the coverage of the roadmaps. These underexplored world regions represent an area for further investigation and increased research/policy attention. Our review of the more substantial amount of literature and roadmaps for developed regions shows differences in target metrics and enforcement mechanisms but that all regions dedicate some efforts at national and local levels. Roadmaps generally focus more on new and public buildings than existing buildings, despite the fact that the latter are naturally larger in number and total floor area, and perform less energy efficiently. A combination of efficiency, technical upgrades, and renewable generation is generally proposed in the roadmaps, with behavioral measures only reflected in the use of information and communication technologies, and minimal focus being placed on lifecycle perspectives. We conclude that insufficient progress is being made in the implementation of ZLECB. More work is needed to couple the existing climate goals, with realistic, enforceable policies to make the carbon savings a reality for different contexts and stakeholders worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Sustainable Post-Exascale Leadership Computing

As computing systems approach the limits of traditional silicon technology, the diminishing returns in performance per watt present a significant barrier to sustaining growth in HPC. From a large-scale scientific supercomputing facility point of view, we propose a multifaceted strategy toward specialized hardware and architectures that are optimized for energy efficiency in specific applications. We also emphasize the need for integrating energy-aware practices across all levels of HPC, from system design and software development to operational policies. We discuss strategic opportunities such as the adoption of application-specific accelerators, the development of energy-efficient algorithms, and the implementation of data-driven operational analytics. Our goal is to develop a comprehensive roadmap ensuring that future leadership systems at OLCF can meet scientific demands while operating within stringent energy budgets, thereby supporting sustainable computing growth.

Shin, Woong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Porous Membranes for Moisture Probe Protection (SR18024)

In the presence of contaminants, moisture probes can give false moisture readings and have shorter lifetimes. Absolute humidity probes are composed of porous, hygroscopic metallic oxide thin films (Al 2 O 3 ) coupled to electrodes (e.g. Au and Al). While these materials provide absolute humidity readings at low water levels at a relatively low cost, they are sensitive to the presence of contaminants, especially ammonia, due to its high hygroscopicity and ability to bind to the probe. Without frequent recalibration, especially in the presence of contaminants, the humidity levels are inaccurately reported due to measurement drift that occurs when the pores close, changing the impedance of the probe. The goal of this project was to improve the stability and reliability of these moisture probes by incorporating a molecular sieve into the probe to allow only the water to reach the sensor. Molecular sieves contain pores that allow molecule specific permeation. Two dimensional inorganic nanosheets (e.g. BN, MoO 2 , MoS 2 ) have recently been shown to behave as molecular sieves for water. Compared to zeolites, nanoporous materials have higher flux rates through the pores, leading to faster water permeation. Graphene oxide sheets have also been successfully employed for unimpeded water permeation; however, at lower humidity levels, the structure is unstable and the pores shrink, preventing the sieving of molecules. Compared to graphene oxide, sheets based off of inorganic materials, such as molybdenum, have been found to be more stable at lower humidity levels and have faster permeation rates. By creating a barrier in before the Al 2 O 3 sensor chip to prevent the permeation of contaminants into the probe, the lifetime of the probe will be extended. While the molybdenum sheets are a promising material for this application, their performance against ammonia and tritiated compounds have not yet been evaluated. This technology can be applied to other applications, including gas and liquid purification for environmental remediation, single molecule sensors, field effect transistors, and catalysts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cost of Capturing CO 2 from Industrial Sources

This systems analysis by the National Energy Technology Laboratory's Strategic Systems Analysis and Engineering directorate) evaluates the cost and performance impacts of capturing CO 2 emissions from nine industrial sources (ammonia, ethylene oxide, and ethanol production, natural gas process, coal- and gas-to-liquids, refinery hydrogen production, iron and steel, and cement manufacturing). The industrial sectors examined are segregated according to the CO 2 purity level of the flue gas stream, prior to treatment. Certain sectors naturally produce a gas stream that is inherently high in CO 2 purity, and these sectors can achieve 99-100% removal. Other sectors produce a lower purity CO 2 flue gas stream and achieving 90-99% removal requires deeper levels of treatment, adding cost. In addition to the report that documents the analysis, a Carbon Capture Retrofit Database tool was also created that allows users to apply CO 2 capture to selected industries, to evaluate the cost of capture and compare across multiple plants, as well as across different industries. Users have the ability to change select input parameters (such as fuel price, capture rate, and financing assumptions) to evaluate the impact on industrial CO 2 capture economics.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement report: The Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation phase 1 (FIN-01): intercomparison of single-particle mass spectrometers

Knowledge of the chemical composition and mixing state of aerosols at a single-particle level is critical for gaining insights into atmospheric processes. One common tool to make these measurements is single-particle mass spectrometry. There remains a need to compare the performance of different single-particle mass spectrometers (SPMSs). An intercomparison of SPMSs was conducted at the Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) chamber at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in November 2014, as part of the first phase of the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation (FIN-01). In this paper we compare size distributions and mass spectra of atmospherically relevant particle types measured by five SPMSs. These include different minerals, desert and soil dusts, soot, bioaerosol (Snomax; protein granule), secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and SOA-coated mineral particles. Most SPMSs reported similar vacuum aerodynamic diameter (d va ) within typical instrumental ranges from ~100–200 nm (lower limit) to ~2–3 µm (upper limit). In general, all SPMSs exhibited a wide dynamic range (up to ~10 3 ) and high signal-to-noise ratio (up to ~10 4 ) in mass spectra. Common spectral features with small diversities in mass spectra were found with high average Pearson's correlation coefficients, i.e., for average positive spectra r avg-pos =0.74 ± 0.12 and average negative spectra r avg-neg =0.67 ± 0.22. We found that instrument-specific detection efficiency (DE) was more dependent on particle size than particle type, and particle identification favored the use of bipolar, rather than monopolar, instruments. Particle classification from “blind experiments” showed that all instruments differentiated SOA, soot, and soil dust and detected subtle changes in the particle internal mixing but had difficulties differentiating among specific mineral types and dusts. This study helps to further understand the capabilities and limitations of the single-particle mass spectrometry technique in general and the specific performance of the instrument in characterizing atmospheric aerosol particles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Analysis of Postclosure DPC Criticality Consequences

One of the objectives of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy's Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the U.S. has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act 1982). Any repository licensed to dispose the SNF must meet requirements regarding the longterm performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A two-phase study has been initiated to begin examining the potential consequences, with respect to longterm repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. Phase I, a scoping phase, consisted of developing an approach intended to be a starting point for the development of the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be required either to exclude criticality from or to include criticality in a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; Phase I is documented in Price et al. (2019). The Phase I approach guided the analyses and simulations done in Phase II to further the development of these modeling tools and techniques as well as the overall knowledge base. The purpose of this report is to document the results of the analyses conducted during Phase II. The remainder of Section 1 presents the background, objective, and scope of this report, as well as the relevant key assumptions used in the Phase II analyses and simulations. Subsequent sections discuss the analyses that were conducted (Section 2), the results of those analyses (Section 3), and the summary and conclusions (Section 4). This report fulfills the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign deliverable M2SF-20SN010305061.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions

What makes you hold on to that old car? While the vast majority of household vehicles are still powered by conventional internal combustion engines, the progress of adopting emerging vehicle technologies will critically depend on how soon the existing vehicles are transacted out of the household fleet. Leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study examines how household decisions to dispose of or replace a given vehicle are: 1) influenced by the vehicle’s attributes, 2) mediated by households’ concurrent socio-demographic and economic attributes, and 3) triggered by key life cycle events. Coupled with a newly developed machine learning interpretation tool, TreeExplainer, we demonstrate an innovative use of machine learning models to augment traditional logit modeling to both generate behavioral insights and improve model performance. We find the two gradient-boosting-based methods, CatBoost and LightGBM, are the best performing machine learning models for this problem. The multinomial logistic model can achieve similar performance levels after its model specification is informed by TreeExplainer. Both machine learning and multinomial logit models suggest that while older vehicles are more likely to be disposed of or replaced than newer ones, such probability decreases as the vehicles serve the family longer. Pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles are less likely to be disposed of or replaced than cars, and leased vehicles are more likely to be transacted than owned vehicles. We find that married families, families with higher education levels, homeowners, and older families tend to keep their vehicles longer. Life events such as childbirth, residential relocation, and change of household composition and income are found to increase vehicle disposal and/or replacement. We provide additional insights on the timing of vehicle replacement or disposal, in particular, the presence of children and childbirth events are more strongly associated with vehicle replacement among younger parents.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of argon addition on hydrogen superpermeation through palladium alloy metal foil pumps during direct internal recycling

Metal foil pumps (MFPs) are a leading technology for the direct internal recycling (DIR) of hydrogen isotopes from the plasma exhaust of fusion devices. MFPs rely on the concept of superpermeation, where plasma-generated atomic hydrogen absorbs into the metal foil, rapidly diffuses, and desorbs downstream. To date, studies of superpermeation have predominantly employed pure hydrogen or in some cases trace levels of impurities. In practice the plasma exhaust may contain significant levels of plasma enhancement gases such as argon, an inert gas with metastable states that can enhance the plasma. In this work, we systematically study the impact of Ar addition on the performance of PdCu and PdAg MFPs at low temperature. Performance was strongly dependent on the DIR fraction. At negligible DIR levels Ar addition did not significantly improve the flux over dilution effects. However, under appreciable DIR operation the flux was enhanced up to 90 % relative to pure H 2 , with the optimal concentration range being 5–10 % Ar exiting the system. Beyond 15 % addition plasma enhancement benefits were offset by dilution. Performance correlated with the atomic H emission, and benefits were more pronounced for PdAg than PdCu. Operation at significant DIR levels dramatically alters the flow dynamics resulting in concentration gradients near the MFP, creating plasma conditions that promote H 2 dissociation.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of high concentration photovoltaics (HCPV) power plants in the US Southwest: Economic assessment and sensitivity analysis

High concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) technologies offer several advantages over typical PV systems. In this study, a detailed economic assessment and sensitivity analysis of deploying HCPV plants in the US southwest is performed. To do this, a 20 MWdc HCPV power plant is designed using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and is evaluated from both technical and financial aspects. The sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the installed cost per capacity of the HCPV system can significantly improve the economics and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized power purchase agreement (LPPA). Also, providing proper incentives including both investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), loan debt ratio, and interest rate are among the most influential parameters. The analysis shows that with the 30% ITC, the LCOE, and LPPA of the designed HCPV projects are between $65.4/MWh and $69.3/MWh and between $71.0/MWh and $75.2/MWh, respectively. The estimated LCOE and LPPA values are almost 50% higher than the utility-scale PV projects. If proper funding is provided to continue the support of the HCPV system, they would become more economical and competitive with PV plants. Federal and state government policies must also be established to advocate HCPV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Versatile Test Reactor Conceptual Core Design

The VTR is a 300-MW(thermal) sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designed for the specific purpose of delivering unique testing capabilities to enable the advancement of all reactor technologies. With its flux level, irradiation volume, and operational flexibility, the VTR will enable accelerated testing of materials, fuels, and various components needing irradiation testing. Proven SFR technologies and design approaches have been leveraged in designing the VTR core, ensuring the highest possible readiness level. This resulted in the VTR using ternary metallic fuel and delivering fast flux levels in excess of 4 x 10 15 n/cm 2 ∙ s over large useful volumes, corresponding to about 60 dpa/year in steel. As part of the design efforts, the VTR core performance has been determined for a representative configuration, ensuring that the reactivity control systems offer sufficient shutdown margins, that the core can be safely cooled in all situations, and that reactivity feedback coefficients are conducive to a favorable safety behavior. Furthermore, the incorporation of features such as fuel assembly storage in the shield region supports the flexible and reliable operation of the VTR. Additional design work has been ongoing as well. This includes thorough shielding performance evaluations to ensure safe operation of the VTR, verification and validation of the design tools used to achieve compliance with Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) requirements, early assessment of the impact of irradiation experiments on the core performance envelope and associated margins, and in-depth uncertainty quantification efforts to quantify the anticipated range of performance characteristics. An experimental program supporting the VTR core design has been set up, with the current focus being on thermal-hydraulic experiments. The purpose of this experimental program is to obtain confirmatory measurements to serve directly as part of the core design basis or as part of the validation cases supporting the simulation tools used.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗