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At least 577 records · Page 32

An analysis of mesoscale VAS retrievals using statistical structure functions

Mesoscale sounding data from a truth rawinsonde network and a VAS from March 6-7, 1982 are statistically studied. The parameters of temperature, geopotential height, and mixing ratio at 850, 700, 500, 300, and 200 mb levels, and thickness and precipitable water are examined. The VAS retrieval gradients derived from a physical algorithm and from a regression technique are analyzed; the analysis reveals that both techniques have similar error characteristics and capabilities for calculating gradients of mesoscale temperature and geopotential height. Ground-truth rawinsonde data and VAS retrievals are compared; it is observed that VAS data describes weaker gradients than rawinsonde data.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

A complete sample of double-lobed radio quasars for VLBI tests of source models - Definition and statistics

A complete, flux-density-limited sample of double-lobed radio quasars is defined, with nuclei bright enough to be mapped with the Mark III VLBI system. It is shown that the statistics of linear size, nuclear strength, and curvature are consistent with the assumption of random source orientations and simple relativistic beaming in the nuclei. However, these statistics are also consistent with the effects of interaction between the beams and the surrounding medium. The distribution of jet velocities in the nuclei, as measured with VLBI, will provide a powerful test of physical theories of extragalactic radio sources.

Hough, D. H.↗

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗

Computing frequency by using generalized zero-crossing applied to intrinsic mode functions

This invention presents a method for computing Instantaneous Frequency by applying Empirical Mode Decomposition to a signal and using Generalized Zero-Crossing (GZC) and Extrema Sifting. The GZC approach is the most direct, local, and also the most accurate in the mean. Furthermore, this approach will also give a statistical measure of the scattering of the frequency value. For most practical applications, this mean frequency localized down to quarter of a wave period is already a well-accepted result. As this method physically measures the period, or part of it, the values obtained can serve as the best local mean over the period to which it applies. Through Extrema Sifting, instead of the cubic spline fitting, this invention constructs the upper envelope and the lower envelope by connecting local maxima points and local minima points of the signal with straight lines, respectively, when extracting a collection of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) from a signal under consideration.

Huang, Norden E.↗

Life Qualification of Hall Thrusters By Analysis and Test

High power Hall thrusters under development for deep space robotic and human exploration missions have demanding lifetime and operational requirements that make thruster life qualification challenging. The required burn times make it infeasible to conduct multiple tests with durations exceeding the life requirement, and complex wearout phenomena and the need for power throttling during missions complicate analyses and testing. The traditional qualification approach, a single life test that typically demonstrates 50 to 100% margin on the required lifetime, does not provide enough information to demonstrate low failure risk. It is a weak source of statistical information about the location of the peak in the failure probability distribution and provides no information on the width of the distribution. Testing does provide information that can be used to validate physics-based models of failure processes, however, and the combination can be used to assess mission risk. Validated, conservative, deterministic analysis can be used to demonstrate that most failure processes have such large margins that more detailed analysis is unnecessary. For a subset of the failure modes a more detailed probabilistic analysis is required. Pole erosion in a 12.5 kW Hall thruster is used as a detailed example of this qualification process.

Brophy, John R.↗

'Diving reflex' in man - Its relation to isometric and dynamic exercise.

To test the influence of physical activity on the diving reflex, 10 normal men held their breath with their faces immersed in 15 C water during rest, bicycle exercise, and sustained isometric handgrip contraction. At all conditions, a slight but statistically significant elevation of blood pressure and a marked decrease in heart rate occurred during each dive. During moderate bicycle exercise heart rate fell more rapidly than at rest and the final level of bradycardia approached that achieved at rest, despite the fact that predive heart rates were much higher during exercise. When diving occurred in combination with isometric exercise, bradycardia was less severe than during resting dives and final heart rates could be represented as the sum of the expected responses to each intervention alone. In all conditions apnea without face immersion caused bradycardia that was less severe than during wet dives.

Bergman, S. A., Jr.↗

Statistical structure of convective periods derived from satellite ground based data

The documentation of characteristics of Vertical Atmospheric Soundings (VAS) through the use of statistical structure and correlation functions is presented. A measure of random error is also provided. Rawinsonde data from various periods is analyzed. Structure and correlation functions are used to compare VAS retrievals obtained using a physical algorithm with those from a regression technique. Results from both procedures are evaluated against those from a mesoscale network of rawinsonde stations. The parameters documented include temperature, mixing ratio, geopotential height, thickness, and precipitable water. Calculation are performed at several layers in the lower and upper troposphere.

Meyer, P. J.↗

Detection of binaries with projected separations as large as 0.1 parsec

Repeated, accurate radial velocity measurements have been made of the 19 candidate wide binary stellar pairs of Bahcall and Soneira. There are 16 unambiguous cases of which six pairs are physical binaries. Projected separations of the binaries are estimated using the observed angular separations and well-determined spectroscopic parallaxes. The projected separations vary from about 0.002 pc to 0.08 pc. This validation of the statistical techniques used in identifying the candidate wide binaries opens up the possibility of large-scale systematic studies of the characteristics of wide binaries.

Latham, D. W.↗

Application of large eddy interaction model to a mixing layer

The large eddy interaction model (LEIM) is a statistical model of turbulence based on the interaction of selected eddies with the mean flow and all of the eddies in a turbulent shear flow. It can be utilized as the starting point for obtaining physical structures in the flow. The possible application of the LEIM to a mixing layer formed between two parallel, incompressible flows with a small temperature difference is developed by invoking a detailed similarity between the spectra of velocity and temperature.

Murthy, S. N. B.↗

Strong Evidence for Stochastic Growth of Langmuir-Like Waves in Earth's Foreshock

Bursty Langmuir-like waves driven by electron beams in Earth's foreshock have properties which are inconsistent with the standard plasma physics paradigm of uniform exponential growth saturated by nonlinear processes. Here it is demonstrated for a specific period that stochastic growth theory (SGT) quantitatively describes these waves throughout a large fraction of the foreshock. The statistical wave properties are inconsistent with nonlinear processes or self-organized criticality being important. SGT's success in explaining the foreshock waves and type III solar bursts suggests that SGT is widely applicable to wave growth in space, astrophysical, and laboratory plasmas.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 4d-Var and its Adjoint-based Tools

The fifth generation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS) is a 3d-var system that uses the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system developed in collaboration with NCEP, and a general circulation model developed at Goddard, that includes the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 wrapped in the Earth System Modeling Framework and physical packages tuned to provide a reliable hydrological cycle for the integration of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). This MERRA system is essentially complete and the next generation GEOS is under intense development. A prototype next generation system is now complete and has been producing preliminary results. This prototype system replaces the GSI-based Incremental Analysis Update procedure with a GSI-based 4d-var which uses the adjoint of the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 together with a vertical diffusing scheme for simplified physics. As part of this development we have kept the GEOS-5 IAU procedure as an option and have added the capability to experiment with a First Guess at the Appropriate Time (FGAT) procedure, thus allowing for at least three modes of running the data assimilation experiments. The prototype system is a large extension of GEOS-5 as it also includes various adjoint-based tools, namely, a forecast sensitivity tool, a singular vector tool, and an observation impact tool, that combines the model sensitivity tool with a GSI-based adjoint tool. These features bring the global data assimilation effort at Goddard up to date with technologies used in data assimilation systems at major meteorological centers elsewhere. Various aspects of the next generation GEOS will be discussed during the presentation at the Workshop, and preliminary results will illustrate the discussion.

Todling, Ricardo↗

Acoustic Emission Analysis Applet (AEAA) Software

NASA Glenn Research and NASA White Sands Test Facility have developed software supporting an automated pressure vessel structural health monitoring (SHM) system based on acoustic emissions (AE). The software, referred to as the Acoustic Emission Analysis Applet (AEAA), provides analysts with a tool that can interrogate data collected on Digital Wave Corp. and Physical Acoustics Corp. software using a wide spectrum of powerful filters and charts. This software can be made to work with any data once the data format is known. The applet will compute basic AE statistics, and statistics as a function of time and pressure (see figure). AEAA provides value added beyond the analysis provided by the respective vendors' analysis software. The software can handle data sets of unlimited size. A wide variety of government and commercial applications could benefit from this technology, notably requalification and usage tests for compressed gas and hydrogen-fueled vehicles. Future enhancements will add features similar to a "check engine" light on a vehicle. Once installed, the system will ultimately be used to alert International Space Station crewmembers to critical structural instabilities, but will have little impact to missions otherwise. Diagnostic information could then be transmitted to experienced technicians on the ground in a timely manner to determine whether pressure vessels have been impacted, are structurally unsound, or can be safely used to complete the mission.

Nichols, Charles T.↗

OGLE-2015-BLG-1670Lb: A Cold Neptune beyond the Snow Line in the Provisional WFIRST Microlensing Survey Field

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1670, detected in a high-extinction field very close to the Galactic plane. Due to the dust extinction along the line of sight, this event was too faint to be detected before it reached the peak of magnification. The microlensing light-curve models indicate a high-magnification event with a maximum of A(max)≳ 200, very sensitive to planetary deviations. An anomaly in the light curve has been densely observed by the microlensing surveys MOA, KMTNet, and OGLE. From the light-curve modeling, we find a planetary anomaly characterized by a planet-to-host mass ratio, q=(1.00 (sup+0.18, sub -0.16) x 10(exp -4), at the peak recently identified in the mass-ratio function of microlensing planets. Thus, this event is interesting to include in future statistical studies about planet demography. We have explored the possible degeneracies and find two competing planetary models resulting from the s ↔ 1/s degeneracy. However, because the projected separation is very close to s = 1, the physical implications for the planet for the two solutions are quite similar, except for the value of s. By combining the light-curve parameters with a Galactic model, we have estimated the planet mass M(2)=17.9(sup +9.6,sub-8.8)M(ꚛ) and the lens distance D(L) = 6.7(sup +1.0, sub -1.3) kpc, corresponding to a Neptune-mass planet close to the Galactic bulge. Such events with a low absolute latitude (|b| ≈1ᵒ.1) are subject to both high extinction and more uncertain source distances, two factors that may affect the mass measurements in the provisional Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope fields. More events are needed to investigate the potential trade-off between the higher lensing rate and the difficulty in measuring masses in these low-latitude fields.

Clément Ranc↗

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

The statistics of gravitational lenses - The distributions of image angular separations and lens redshifts

An analytical calculation is presented which determines the probability that the light from a distant quasar can be lensed by objects in a different redshift range. Three types of information are used to make the calculation: (1) the physical properties of the intervening scattering lenses; (2) the intrinsic properties of the quasars and (3) the selection procedures by which the quasar samples are acquired. A series of differential equations is given in which the probability is derived, and a number of recommendations are offered with respect to VLA and Space Telescope observations of quasars lensed in this way.

Turner, E. L.↗

Modeling a maintenance simulation of the geosynchronous platform

A modeling technique used to conduct a simulation study comparing various maintenance routines for a space platform is dicussed. A system model is described and illustrated, the basic concepts of a simulation pass are detailed, and sections on failures and maintenance are included. The operation of the system across time is best modeled by a discrete event approach with two basic events - failure and maintenance of the system. Each overall simulation run consists of introducing a particular model of the physical system, together with a maintenance policy, demand function, and mission lifetime. The system is then run through many passes, each pass corresponding to one mission and the model is re-initialized before each pass. Statistics are compiled at the end of each pass and after the last pass a report is printed. Items of interest typically include the time to first maintenance, total number of maintenance trips for each pass, average capability of the system, etc.

Kleiner, A. F., Jr.↗

Statistics of premixed flame cells

The statistics of random cellular patterns in premixed flames are analyzed. Agreement is found with a variety of topological relations previously found for other networks, namely, Lewis's law and Aboav's law. Despite the diverse underlying physics, flame cells are shown to share a broad class of geometric properties with other random networks-metal grains, soap foams, bioconvection, and Langmuir monolayers.

Noever, David A.↗