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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep transfer operator learning for partial differential equations under conditional shift

Transfer learning enables the transfer of knowledge gained while learning to perform one task (source) to a related but different task (target), hence addressing the expense of data acquisition and labelling, potential computational power limitations and dataset distribution mismatches. Here, we propose a new transfer learning framework for task-specific learning (functional regression in partial differential equations) under conditional shift based on the deep operator network (DeepONet). Task-specific operator learning is accomplished by fine-tuning task-specific layers of the target DeepONet using a hybrid loss function that allows for the matching of individual target samples while also preserving the global properties of the conditional distribution of the target data. Inspired by conditional embedding operator theory, we minimize the statistical distance between labelled target data and the surrogate prediction on unlabelled target data by embedding conditional distributions onto a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach for various transfer learning scenarios involving nonlinear partial differential equations under diverse conditions due to shifts in the geometric domain and model dynamics. Our transfer learning framework enables fast and efficient learning of heterogeneous tasks despite considerable differences between the source and target domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Generative Models for Materials Discovery and Machine Learning-Accelerated Innovation

Machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI/ML) methods are beginning to have significant impact in chemistry and condensed matter physics. For example, deep learning methods have demonstrated new capabilities for high-throughput virtual screening, and global optimization approaches for inverse design of materials. Recently, a relatively new branch of AI/ML, deep generative models (GMs), provide additional promise as they encode material structure and/or properties into a latent space, and through exploration and manipulation of the latent space can generate new materials. These approaches learn representations of a material structure and its corresponding chemistry or physics to accelerate materials discovery, which differs from traditional AI/ML methods that use statistical and combinatorial screening of existing materials via distinct structure-property relationships. However, application of GMs to inorganic materials has been notably harder than organic molecules because inorganic structure is often more complex to encode. In this work we review recent innovations that have enabled GMs to accelerate inorganic materials discovery. We focus on different representations of material structure, their impact on inverse design strategies using variational autoencoders or generative adversarial networks, and highlight the potential of these approaches for discovering materials with targeted properties needed for technological innovation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive learning-driven high-throughput synthesis of oxygen reduction reaction Fe–N–C electrocatalysts

Reducing human reliance on inefficient energy systems and fossil fuels has become more urgent due to the consequences of global climate change. However, traditional trial-and-error approaches have hampered our ability to accelerate the discovery and implementation of functional materials for efficient energy conversion devices, such as polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs). To address this, we develop an adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning and state-of-the-art capabilities in high-throughput synthesis to achieve expedited optimization of iron-nitrogen-carbon PEFC oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. We use statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and global optimization to build a computational design-of-experiment tool that identifies the optimum compositions to be investigated next to reduce the demands placed on experimental materials discovery. We benchmark the ability of the proposed strategy to discover optimum catalyst synthesis conditions in a six-dimensional search space when starting with a thirty-six-sample database. By following the adaptive learning strategy, we synthesize fourteen new catalysts from approximately ten billion unique compositions and discover four catalysts that outperform all original samples. The best machine learning-optimized catalyst is 33% more active than the highest-performing one in the initial database, showing an ORR activity seven times larger than those typically reported for the same class of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic data-driven deep learning for label-free autonomous atomic force microscopy

Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is a widely used tool for nanoscale characterization across materials science, energy research, and biology. However, its adoption in high-throughput materials discovery and statistically driven studies remains limited by a strong dependence on expert operator input and by the scarcity of annotated experimental AFM datasets needed to enable data-driven automation. Here, we introduce SimuScan, a synthetic-data–driven framework that enables reliable AFM feature identification, segmentation, and targeted imaging without requiring large manually labeled experimental datasets. SimuScan generates tunable, high-fidelity synthetic AFM images of defined morphologies while incorporating realistic experimental artifacts, including tip–sample convolution, noise, flattening distortions, and surface debris. These datasets are shown to support scalable, label-free training of modern deep learning models for AFM analysis. When integrated into data-driven AFM workflows, SimuScan-trained models can locate and analyze nanoscale structures across large datasets and guide targeted follow-up imaging. We validate this approach on nanostructured surfaces, DNA assemblies, and bacterial cells, demonstrating robust generalization across diverse sample types with minimal operator intervention. More broadly, this work establishes a general strategy for generating explicitly conditioned, task-relevant synthetic data to improve the reliability of downstream models in autonomous microscopy.

Millan-Solsona, Ruben [Oak Ridge National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Adaptive Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully Bayesian formulations remain rare—especially with implementations in R. Motivated by the success of adaptive Bayesian machine learning models such as BART, BASS and BPPR, we develop a new fully Bayesian adaptive PCE method with an efficient and accessible R implementation: khaos. Our approach includes a novel proposal distribution that enables data-driven interaction selection and supports a modified g-prior tailored to PCE structure. Through simulation studies and real-world UQ applications, we demonstrate that the Bayesian adaptive PCE provides competitive performance for surrogate modeling, global sensitivity analysis and ordinal regression tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning a molecular Hamiltonian for predicting electron dynamics

We develop a computational method to learn a molecular Hamiltonian matrix from matrix-valued time series of the electron density. As we demonstrate for three small molecules, the resulting Hamiltonians can be used for electron density evolution, producing highly accurate results even when propagating 1,000 time steps beyond the training data. As a more rigorous test, we use the learned Hamiltonians to simulate electron dynamics in the presence of an applied electric field, extrapolating to a problem that is beyond the field-free training data. We find that the resulting electron dynamics predicted by our learned Hamiltonian are in close quantitative agreement with the ground truth. Our method relies on combining a reduced-dimensional, linear statistical model of the Hamiltonian with a time-discretization of the quantum Liouville equation within time-dependent Hartree Fock theory. In conclusion, we train the model using a least-squares solver, avoiding numerous, CPU-intensive optimization steps. For both field-free and field-on problems, we quantify training and propagation errors, highlighting areas for future development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rotational Dynamics and Transition Mechanisms of Surface-Adsorbed Proteins

Assembly of biomolecules at solid-water interfaces requires molecules to traverse complex orientation-dependent energy landscapes through processes that are poorly understood, largely due to the dearth of in-situ single molecule measurements and statistical analyses of the rotational dynamics that define directional selection. Emerging capabilities in high-speed atomic force microscopy and machine learning have allowed us to directly determine the orientational energy landscape and observe and quantify the rotational dynamics for protein nanorods on the surface of muscovite mica under a variety of conditions. Comparisons with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations show that the transition rates between adjacent orientation-specific energetic minima can largely be understood through traditional models of in-plane Brownian rotation across a biased energy landscape, with resulting transition rates that are exponential in the energy-barriers between states. However, transitions between more distant angular states are decoupled from barrier height, with jump-size distributions showing a power-law decay that is characteristic of a non-classical Levy-flight random walk, indicating that large jumps are enabled by alternative modes of motion via activated states. The findings provide new insights into the dynamics of biomolecules at solid-liquid interfaces that lead to self-assembly, epitaxial matching and other orientationally anisotropic outcomes and define a general procedure for exploring such dynamics with implications for hybrid biomolecular-inorganic materials design.

Orientational energy landscapes, Rotational dynami↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic neural networks for improved analyses with phenomenological R -matrix

Here we present a method for measurement analyses based on probabilistic deep neural networks that provide several advantages over conventional analyses with phenomenological models. These include predicting physical quantities directly from data, the rapid generation of statistically robust uncertainties, and the ability to bypass some parameters that may induce ambiguities and complications in data analysis. As deep learning methods make predictions through “black boxes,” the uncertainty quantification is typically challenging. We use a probabilistic framework that provides thorough uncertainty quantification and is straightforward to follow in practice. With the network architecture based on the Transformer, we demonstrate the current method for predicting nuclear resonance parameters from scattering data using the phenomenological R-matrix model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Software for Transformative Remedial Action Scheme Tool (TRAST)

The transformative remedial action scheme tool (TRAST) can be applied to improve and validate the power system remedial action scheme (RAS), and further improve the performance of power system operation and control. This tool provides a full suite of advanced functionalities, which are given as follows: 1. Advanced statistical data analysis; 2. OPF-based automated power flow case generation; 3. Customized dynamic simulation in HPC/cloud platform; 4. Machine learning based RAS coefficient prediction; 5. A reliable RAS validation strategy in multiple commercial platforms.

Fan, Xiaoyuan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Intensity Distributions of Transmission Eigenchannels of Disordered Nanophotonic Structures Using Machine Learning

Light-matter interaction optimization in complex nanophotonic structures is a critical step towards the tailored performance of photonic devices. The increasing complexity of such systems requires new optimization strategies beyond intuitive methods. For example, in disordered photonic structures, the spatial distribution of energy densities has large random fluctuations due to the interference of multiply scattered electromagnetic waves, even though the statistically averaged spatial profiles of the transmission eigenchannels are universal. Classification of these eigenchannels for a single configuration based on visualization of intensity distributions is difficult. However, successful classification could provide vital information about disordered nanophotonic structures. Emerging methods in machine learning have enabled new investigations into optimized photonic structures. In this work, we combine intensity distributions of the transmission eigenchannels and the transmitted speckle-like intensity patterns to classify the eigenchannels of a single configuration of disordered photonic structures using machine learning techniques. Specifically, we leverage supervised learning methods, such as decision trees and fully connected neural networks, to achieve classification of these transmission eigenchannels based on their intensity distributions with an accuracy greater than 99%, even with a dataset including photonic devices of various disorder strengths. Simultaneous classification of the transmission eigenchannels and the relative disorder strength of the nanophotonic structure is also possible. Our results open new directions for machine learning assisted speckle-based metrology and demonstrate a novel approach to classifying nanophotonic structures based on their electromagnetic field distributions. These insights can be of paramount importance for optimizing light-matter interactions at the nanoscale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

MFNets: Multifidelity data-driven networks for Bayesian learning and prediction

This paper presents a multifidelity uncertainty quantification framework called MFNets. We seek to address three existing challenges that arise when experimental and simulation data from different sources are used to enhance statistical estimation and prediction with quantified uncertainty. Specifically, we demonstrate that MFNets can (1) fuse heterogeneous data sources arising from simulations with different parameterizations, e.g simulation models with different uncertain parameters or data sets collected under different environmental conditions; (2) encode known relationships among data sources to reduce data requirements; and (3) improve the robustness of existing multi-fidelity approaches to corrupted data. MFNets construct a network of latent variables (LVs) to facilitate the fusion of data from an ensemble of sources of varying credibility and cost. These LVs are posited as explanatory variables that provide the source of correlation in the observed data. Furthermore, MFNets provide a way to encode prior physical knowledge to enable efficient estimation of statistics and/or construction of surrogates via conditional independence relations on the LVs. We highlight the utility of our framework with a number of theoretical results which assess the quality of the posterior mean as a frequentist estimator and compare it to standard sampling approaches that use single fidelity, multilevel, and control variate Monte Carlo estimators. We also use the proposed framework to derive the Monte Carlo-based control variate estimator entirely from the use of Bayes rule and linear-Gaussian models -- to our knowledge the first such derivation. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to work with different uncertain parameters across different models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporally dynamic implicit large eddy simulation using machine learning classifiers

In this article, we utilize machine learning to dynamically determine if a point on the computational grid requires implicit numerical dissipation for large eddy simulation (LES). The decision making process is learnt through a priori training on quantities derived from direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. In particular, we compute eddy-viscosities obtained through the coarse-graining of DNS quantities and utilize their projection onto a Gaussian distribution to categorize areas that may require dissipation. If our learning determines that closure is necessary, an upwinded scheme is utilized for computing the non-linear Jacobian. In contrast, if it is determined that closure is unnecessary, a symmetric and second-order accurate energy and enstrophy preserving Arakawa scheme is utilized instead. This results in a closure framework that precludes the specification of any model-form for the small scale contributions of turbulence but deploys an appropriate numerical dissipation from explicit closure driven hypotheses. Here, this methodology is deployed for the Kraichnan turbulence test-case and assessed through various statistical quantities such as angle-averaged kinetic energy spectra and vorticity structure functions. Our framework thus establishes a link between the use of explicit LES ideologies for closure and numerical dissipation-based modeling of turbulence leading to improved statistical fidelity of a posteriori simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗
DOE OSTI2020

An active learning high-throughput microstructure calibration framework for solving inverse structure–process problems in materials informatics

Determining a process–structure–property relationship is the holy grail of materials science, where both computational prediction in the forward direction and materials design in the inverse direction are essential. Problems in materials design are often considered in the context of process–property linkage by bypassing the materials structure, or in the context of structure–property linkage as in microstructure-sensitive design problems. However, there is a lack of research effort in studying materials design problems in the context of process–structure linkage, which has a great implication in reverse engineering. In this paper, given a target microstructure, we propose an active learning high-throughput microstructure calibration framework to derive a set of processing parameters, which can produce an optimal microstructure that is statistically equivalent to the target microstructure. The proposed framework is formulated as a noisy multi-objective optimization problem, where each objective function measures a deterministic or statistical difference of the same microstructure descriptor between a candidate microstructure and a target microstructure. Furthermore, to significantly reduce the physical waiting wall-time, we enable the high-throughput feature of the microstructure calibration framework by adopting an asynchronously parallel Bayesian optimization to exploit high-performance computing resources. Case studies in additive manufacturing and grain growth are used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, where kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulation is used as a forward predictive model, such that for a given target microstructure, the target processing parameters that produced this microstructure are successfully recovered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗