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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to accelerate screening for Marcus reorganization energies

Understanding and predicting the charge transport properties of π-conjugated materials is an important challenge for designing new organic electronic devices, such as solar cells, plastic transistors, light-emitting devices, and chemical sensors. A key component of the hopping mechanism of charge transfer in these materials is the Marcus reorganization energy which serves as an activation barrier to hole or electron transfer. While modern density functional methods have proven to accurately predict trends in intramolecular reorganization energy, such calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, we outline active machine learning methods to predict computed intramolecular reorganization energies of a wide range of polythiophenes and their use toward screening new compounds with low internal reorganization energies. Our models have an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of ±0.113 eV, but a much smaller RMSE of only ±0.036 eV on the new screening set. Since the larger error derives from high-reorganization energy compounds, the new method is highly effective to screen for compounds with potentially efficient charge transport parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved loss functions for machine-learned atomic potentials

Machine learning (ML) has become an invaluable tool across a wide array of domains in science as researchers find new ways to leverage its predictive power. This is especially true in chemistry, where ML is used to fit chemical properties or desirable attributes to the local structure of molecules and materials. In the pursuit of greater accuracy, it is relatively simple to increase the size or complexity of such models, although this often requires simultaneously seeking larger datasets in order to both fit and interpret the larger number of parameters. However, it is equally important to assess the quality and relative importance of the data and how these factors impact the training process. We, therefore, investigate the impact of using different loss functions for training neural network potentials (NNPs), as the loss function defines the error and parameter gradients used to train the NNP. In particular, we test the mean-squared error and Huber loss functions and, using insight from these functions, derive a new loss function based on the Asinh function, which yields significant improvement in the accuracy and generality of NNPs. We show that by discounting/minimizing errors and anomalies in the optimization process, both the Huber and Asinh loss functions improve the training of NNPs, leading to a final potential with a greater effective dimensionality.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A study on the statistical significance of mutual information between morphology of a galaxy and its large-scale environment

ABSTRACT A non-zero mutual information between morphology of a galaxy and its large-scale environment is known to exist in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) upto a few tens of Mpc. It is important to test the statistical significance of these mutual information if any. We propose three different methods to test the statistical significance of these non-zero mutual information and apply them to SDSS and Millennium run simulation. We randomize the morphological information of SDSS galaxies without affecting their spatial distribution and compare the mutual information in the original and randomized data sets. We also divide the galaxy distribution into smaller subcubes and randomly shuffle them many times keeping the morphological information of galaxies intact. We compare the mutual information in the original SDSS data and its shuffled realizations for different shuffling lengths. Using a t-test, we find that a small but statistically significant (at $99.9{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level) mutual information between morphology and environment exists upto the entire length-scale probed. We also conduct another experiment using mock data sets from a semi-analytic galaxy catalogue where we assign morphology to galaxies in a controlled manner based on the density at their locations. The experiment clearly demonstrates that mutual information can effectively capture the physical correlations between morphology and environment. Our analysis suggests that physical association between morphology and environment may extend to much larger length-scales than currently believed, and the information theoretic framework presented here can serve as a sensitive and useful probe of the assembly bias and large-scale environmental dependence of galaxy properties.

Sarkar, Suman↗
DOE OSTI2021

INTEGRATE - Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements

The INTEGRATE (Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements) project is developing a new inverse-design capability for the aerodynamic design of wind turbine rotors using invertible neural networks. This AI-based design technology can capture complex non-linear aerodynamic effects while being 100 times faster than design approaches based on computational fluid dynamics. This project enables innovation in wind turbine design by accelerating time to market through higher-accuracy early design iterations to reduce the levelized cost of energy. INVERTIBLE NEURAL NETWORKS Researchers are leveraging a specialized invertible neural network (INN) architecture along with the novel dimension-reduction methods and airfoil/blade shape representations developed by collaborators at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) learns complex relationships between airfoil or blade shapes and their associated aerodynamic and structural properties. This INN architecture will accelerate designs by providing a cost-effective alternative to current industrial aerodynamic design processes, including: - Blade element momentum (BEM) theory models: limited effectiveness for design of offshore rotors with large, flexible blades where nonlinear aerodynamic effects dominate - Direct design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD): cost-prohibitive - Inverse-design models based on deep neural networks (DNNs): attractive alternative to CFD for 2D design problems, but quickly overwhelmed by the increased number of design variables in 3D problems AUTOMATED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS FOR TRAINING DATA GENERATION - MERCURY FRAMEWORK The INN is trained on data obtained using the University of Marylands (UMD) Mercury Framework, which has with robust automated mesh generation capabilities and advanced turbulence and transition models validated for wind energy applications. Mercury is a multi-mesh paradigm, heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework. The framework incorporates three flow solvers at UMD, 1) OverTURNS, a structured solver on CPUs, 2) HAMSTR, a line based unstructured solver on CPUs, and 3) GARFIELD, a structured solver on GPUs. The framework is based on Python, that is often used to wrap C or Fortran codes for interoperability with other solvers. Communication between multiple solvers is accomplished with a Topology Independent Overset Grid Assembler (TIOGA). NOVEL AIRFOIL SHAPE REPRESENTATIONS USING GRASSMAN SPACES We developed a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation as an analytic generative model, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data , (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics informing design/manufacturing, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DEMONSTRATION - COUPLING WITH NREL WISDEM Researchers have integrated the inverse-design tool for 2D airfoils (INN-Airfoil) into WISDEM (Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model), a multidisciplinary design and optimization framework for assessing the cost of energy, as part of tech-transfer demonstration. The integration of INN-Airfoil into WISDEM allows for the design of airfoils along with the blades that meet the dynamic design constraints on cost of energy, annual energy production, and the capital costs. Through preliminary studies, researchers have shown that the coupled INN-Airfoil + WISDEM approach reduces the cost of energy by around 1% compared to the conventional design approach. This page will serve as a place to easily access all the publications from this work and the repositories for the software developed and released through this pr...

aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical test of weak turbulence theory

The analytic theory of weak Langmuir turbulence is well known, but very little has previously been done to compare its predictions with numerical solutions of the basic dynamical evolution equations. In this paper, numerical solutions of the statistical weak turbulence theory are compared with numerical solutions of the Zakharov model of Langmuir turbulence, and good agreement in certain regimes of very weak field strength is found.

Payne, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Terrestrial mantle siderophiles and the lunar impact record

Results of an analytical fit to the lunar cratering record are shown to be in good agreement with geochemical estimates of the meteoritic component mixed into the lunar crust. Upon a gravitational scaling to the earth consistent with the statistical probability that earth impactors were more massive than lunar ones, an estimate is obtained of 1.5 x 10 to the 22nd kg of material accumulated by the earth begining 4.4 Gyr ago. This is in excellent agreement with estimates of postcore-formation meteoritic input derived from geochemical considerations of the abundances of highly siderophile elements in the terrestrial mantle. Approximate agreement is therefore established between the lunar cratering record scaling and both lunar and terrestrial geochemical constraints.

Chyba, Christopher F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Generation of Boundary Manikin Anthropometry

The purpose of this study was to develop 3D digital boundary manikins that are representative of the anthropometry of a unique population. These digital manikins can be used by designers to verify and validate that the components of the spacesuit design satisfy the requirements specified in the Human Systems Integration Requirements (HSIR) document. Currently, the HSIR requires the suit to accommodate the 1st percentile American female to the 99th percentile American male. The manikin anthropometry was derived using two methods: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Whole Body Posture Based Analysis (WBPBA). PCA is a statistical method for reducing a multidimensional data set by using eigenvectors and eigenvalues. The goal is to create a reduced data set that encapsulates the majority of the variation in the population. WBPBA is a multivariate analytical approach that was developed by the Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) to identify the extremes of the population for a given body posture. WBPBA is a simulation-based method that finds extremes in a population based on anthropometry and posture whereas PCA is based solely on anthropometry. Both methods yield a list of subjects and their anthropometry from the target population; PCA resulted in 20 female and 22 male subjects anthropometry and WBPBA resulted in 7 subjects' anthropometry representing the extreme subjects in the target population. The subjects anthropometry is then used to 'morph' a baseline digital scan of a person with the same body type to create a 3D digital model that can be used as a tool for designers, the details of which will be discussed in subsequent papers.

Young, Karen S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report on Hydrogen Content Measurements of Yttrium Hydrides

This report describes the hydrogen content measurements of yttrium samples as irradiated at Advanced Test Reactor as part of the Microreactor Program. Irradiated samples were prepared at the facilities of Analytical Research Laboratory (ARL) of Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC). Hydrogen content measurements were performed on reduced size specimens using an inert gas fusion analyzer. For a single sample, replicate samples were prepared and tested to improve statistics of results. Uncertainty analyses were conducted using two approaches to determine the hydrogen content variations in the samples. Hydrogen content of irradiated specimens were both lower and higher than the expected values, indicating stoichiometry variations. Hydrogen was detected in all samples, even for the cracked capsule’s specimens. Results also suggested a potential hydrogen redistribution is present between samples inside the capsules.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Topology-Dependent Performance of Free-Space Photonic Quantum Networks Under Noise

Photonic quantum communication enables secure and high-fidelity information transfer beyond classical limits, with direct relevance to emerging quantum networks operating in free-space environments. While physical-layer models of depolarizing noise, Gamma–Gamma turbulence statistics, entanglement swapping, and decoy-state QKD security bounds are individually well established, prior work typically treats these components in isolation or under fixed network assumptions. In this work, we develop a unified topology-aware analytical framework that simultaneously integrates free-space optical link budgets, turbulence-induced visibility degradation, depolarizing qubit noise, multi-hop entanglement cascade dynamics, teleportation fidelity thresholds, CHSH nonlocality certification, and asymptotic decoy-state secret key rate bounds across star, mesh, and ring graph structures. Rather than introducing new physical channel models, we demonstrate that identical physical links exhibit fundamentally different end-to-end performance once embedded within different network topologies. Mesh architectures minimize visibility cascade through hop-count reduction but incur quadratic hardware scaling. Star topologies minimize link count but concentrate noise and synchronization overhead at the hub. Ring configurations offer linear hardware scaling with multiplicative fidelity degradation. The results establish topology as a first-order design parameter in near-term free-space quantum networks operating without full quantum repeater infrastructures. While motivated by distributed multi-agent architectures, the framework applies broadly to terrestrial, airborne, and satellite-assisted photonic quantum communication systems.

QKD↗
DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of a geodesy coexperiment to the Gravity Probe B relativity gyroscope program

Geodesy is the science of measuring the gravitational field of and positions on the Earth. Estimation of the gravitational field via gravitation gradiometry, the measurement of variations in the direction and magnitude of gravitation with respect to position, is this dissertation's focus. Gravity Probe B (GP-B) is a Stanford satellite experiment in gravitational physics. GP-B will measure the precession the rotating Earth causes on the space time around it by observing the precessions of four gyroscopes in a circular, polar, drag-free orbit at 650 km altitude. The gyroscopes are nearly perfect niobium-coated spheres of quartz, operating at 1.8 K to permit observations with extremely low thermal noise. The permissible gyroscope drift rate is miniscule, so the torques on the gyros must be tiny. A drag-free control system, by canceling accelerations caused by nongravitational forces, minimizes the support forces and hence torques. The GP-B system offers two main possibilities for geodesy. One is as a drag-free satellite to be used in trajectory-based estimates of the Earth's gravity field. We described calculations involving that approach in our previous reports, including comparison of laser only, GPS only, and combined tracking and a preliminary estimate of the possibility of estimating relativistic effects on the orbit. The second possibility is gradiometry. This technique has received a more cursory examination in previous reports, so we concentrate on it here. We explore the feasibility of using the residual suspension forces centering the GP-B gyros as gradiometer signals for geodesy. The objective of this work is a statistical prediction of the formal uncertainty in an estimate of the Earth's gravitation field using data from GP-B. We perform an instrument analysis and apply two mathematical techniques to predict uncertainty. One is an analytical approach using a flat-Earth approximation to predict geopotential information quality as a function of spatial wavelength. The second estimates the covariance matrix arising in a least-squares estimate of a spherical harmonic representation of the geopotential using GP-B gradiometer data. The results show that the GP-B data set can be used to create a consistent estimate of the geopotential up to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. The formal uncertainty of all coefficients between degrees 5 and 50 is reduced by factors of up to 30 over current satellite-only estimates and up to 7 over estimates which include surface data. The primary conclusion resulting from this study is that the gravitation gradiometer geodesy coexperiment to GP-B is both feasible and attractive.

Everitt, C. W. F.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An analytical and experimental study of zoning in plagioclase

A detailed electron microprobe study has been conducted on natural and experimentally grown zoned plagioclase feldspars. Discontinuous, sector, and oscillatory chemical zoning are observed superimposed on continuous normal or reverse zoning trends. The relative accuracy of 3 element (Na, Ca, K) microprobe traverses was found statistically to be 2 mole percent. Comparison of microprobe data on natural zoned plagioclase with zoned plagioclase grown in controlled experiments has shown that it may be possible to distinguish zonal development resulting from physio-chemical changes to the bulk magma from zoning related to local kinetic control on the growth of individual crystals.

Smith, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitation of amiodarone and N-desethylamiodarone in single HepG2 cells by single-cell printing-liquid vortex capture-mass spectrometry

Quantitative measure of a drug and its associated metabolite(s) with single-cell resolution is often limited by sampling throughput or other compromises that limit broad use. Here, we demonstrate the use of single-cell printing-liquid vortex capture-mass spectrometry (SCP-LVC-MS) to quantitatively measure the intracellular concentrations of amiodarone (AMIO) and its metabolite, N-desethylamiodarone (NDEA), from thousands of single cells across several AMIO incubation concentrations ranging from 0 to 10 μM. Concentrations obtained by SCP-LVC-MS were validated through comparison with average assays and traditional measurement of cells in bulk. Average of SCP-LVC-MS measurements and aggregate vial collection assay the concentrations differed by < 5%. Both AMIO and NDEA had clear log-normal distributions with similar standard deviation of concentrations in the cell population. The mean of both AMIO and NDEA intracellular concentrations were positively correlated with AMIO incubation concentration, increasing from 0.026 to 0.520 and 0.0055 to 0.048 mM for AMIO and NDEA, respectively. The standard deviation of AMIO and NDEA log-normal distribution fits were relatively similar in value across incubation concentrations, 0.15–0.19 log 10 (mM), and exhibited a linear trend with respect to each other. The single cell-resolved conversion ratio of AMIO to NDEA increased with decreasing incubation concentration, 7 ± 2%, 18 ± 3%, and 20 ± 7% for 10.0, 1.0, and 0.1 μM AMIO incubation concentrations, respectively. Finally, association with simultaneously measured lipids had several ions with statistically significant difference in intensity but no clear correlations with AMIO intracellular content was observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting trends in the exchange current for hydrogen evolution

Nørskov and collaborators proposed a simple kinetic model to explain the volcano relation for the hydrogen evolution reaction on transition metal surfaces such that j 0 = k 0 f(ΔG H ) where j 0 is the exchange current density, f(ΔG H ) is a function of the hydrogen adsorption free energy ΔG H as computed from density functional theory, and k 0 is a universal rate constant. Herein, focusing on the hydrogen evolution reaction in acidic medium, we revisit the original experimental data and find that the fidelity of this kinetic model can be significantly improved by invoking metal-dependence on k 0 such that the logarithm of k 0 linearly depends on the absolute value of ΔG H . Here, we further confirm this relationship using additional experimental data points obtained from a critical review of the available literature. Our analyses show that the new model decreases the discrepancy between calculated and experimental exchange current density values by up to four orders of magnitude. Furthermore, we show the model can be further improved using machine learning and statistical inference methods that integrate additional material properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2017

Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) performs orbit determination (OD) for the Aqua and Aura satellites. Both satellites are located in low Earth orbit (LEO), and are part of what is considered the A-Train satellite constellation. Both spacecraft are currently in the science phase of their respective missions. The FDF has recently been tasked with delivering definitive covariance for each satellite.The main source of orbit determination used for these missions is the Orbit Determination Toolkit developed by Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). This software uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the states of both spacecraft. The filter incorporates force modelling, ground station and space network measurements to determine spacecraft states. It also generates a covariance at each measurement. This covariance can be useful for evaluating the overall performance of the tracking data measurements and the filter itself. An accurate covariance is also useful for covariance propagation which is utilized in collision avoidance operations. It is also valuable when attempting to determine if the current orbital solution will meet mission requirements in the future.This paper examines the use of the Chi-square statistic as a means of evaluating filter performance. The Chi-square statistic is calculated to determine the realism of a covariance based on the prediction accuracy and the covariance values at a given point in time. Once calculated, it is the distribution of this statistic that provides insight on the accuracy of the covariance.For the EKF to correctly calculate the covariance, error models associated with tracking data measurements must be accurately tuned. Over estimating or under estimating these error values can have detrimental effects on the overall filter performance. The filter incorporates ground station measurements, which can be tuned based on the accuracy of the individual ground stations. It also includes measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

Covariance Analysis↗