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At least 577 records · Page 32

Data-Enabled Predictive Control for Building HVAC Systems

Model predictive control is widely used as a control technology for the computation of optimal control inputs of building heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. However, both the benefits and widespread adoption of model predictive control (MPC) are hindered by the effort of model creation, calibration, and accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, we apply the data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm for designing controls for building HVAC systems. The algorithm solely depends on input/output data from the system to predict future state trajectories without the need for system identification. The algorithm relies on the idea that a vector space of all input–output trajectories of a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system is spanned by time-shifts of a single measured trajectory, given the input signal is persistently exciting. Closed-loop simulations using EnergyPlus are performed to demonstrate the approach. The simulated building modeled in EnergyPlus is a modified commercial large office prototype building served by an air handling unit-variable air volume HVAC system. Temperature setpoints of zones are used as control variables to minimize the HVAC energy cost of the building considering a time-of-use electricity rate structure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to gain insights into the effect of parameter tuning on DeePC performance. Simulation results are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm and compare the algorithm with model-based MPC and occupancy-based setpoint controller. Overall, DeePC achieves similar performance compared to MPC for lower engineering effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantification of Variation in Combustion Instability Amplitude in a Multi-Nozzle Can Combustor

In this work, we quantify the level of variation in unstable combustion oscillation amplitudes and identify the source of this variation in a multi-nozzle can combustor. At conditions where pollutant emissions are reduced, lean-premixed combustors can undergo thermoacoustic instability when pressure and heat release rate oscillations couple. A commonly used method for suppressing instability is fuel staging, which is a method where fuel is unevenly distributed between nozzles in a multi-nozzle combustor. Our work follows others who have characterized the effect of fuel staging on combustion instability and the mechanisms by which it works during both steady-state and transient operation. One of the outcomes from our previous work was that certain instability operating points display a high level of pressure oscillation amplitude variation. Instead of oscillating at a constant limit-cycle amplitude, the pressure oscillation amplitude varies significantly in time. In this work, we use the concept of permutation entropy to quantify the level of variation in the pressure fluctuation amplitude. We correlate the level of variation with a number of state variables over a range of operating conditions, 291 test cases in all. These state variables include mixture equivalence ratio; transient timescale, amplitude, and direction; hardware temperatures; gas temperatures; and thermoacoustic damping and growth rates. Significant pressure oscillation amplitude variation occurs when the thermoacoustic damping rate is low. The damping and growth rates can be low for a number of reasons, but they are highly correlated with the metal temperature of the centerbody, where the flames are anchored; lower temperatures result in lower damping rates during stable operation and lower growth rates during unstable operation. These results show the importance of the thermal boundary condition on the time-dependent behavior of the thermoacoustic instability.

Westfall, Seth↗

An investigation of constraint-based component-modeling for knowledge representation in computer-aided conceptual design

Originally, computer programs for engineering design focused on detailed geometric design. Later, computer programs for algorithmically performing the preliminary design of specific well-defined classes of objects became commonplace. However, due to the need for extreme flexibility, it appears unlikely that conventional programming techniques will prove fruitful in developing computer aids for engineering conceptual design. The use of symbolic processing techniques, such as object-oriented programming and constraint propagation, facilitate such flexibility. Object-oriented programming allows programs to be organized around the objects and behavior to be simulated, rather than around fixed sequences of function- and subroutine-calls. Constraint propagation allows declarative statements to be understood as designating multi-directional mathematical relationships among all the variables of an equation, rather than as unidirectional assignments to the variable on the left-hand side of the equation, as in conventional computer programs. The research has concentrated on applying these two techniques to the development of a general-purpose computer aid for engineering conceptual design. Object-oriented programming techniques are utilized to implement a user-extensible database of design components. The mathematical relationships which model both geometry and physics of these components are managed via constraint propagation. In addition, to this component-based hierarchy, special-purpose data structures are provided for describing component interactions and supporting state-dependent parameters. In order to investigate the utility of this approach, a number of sample design problems from the field of aerospace engineering were implemented using the prototype design tool, Rubber Airplane. The additional level of organizational structure obtained by representing design knowledge in terms of components is observed to provide greater convenience to the program user, and to result in a database of engineering information which is easier both to maintain and to extend.

Kolb, Mark A.↗

Solar cycle dependence of the sun's radius at lambda = 525.0 nm

The Mount Wilson (California) synoptic program of solar magnetic observations scans the solar disk between 1 and 20 times per day. As part of this program, the radius is determined as an average distance between the image center and the point where the intensity in the FeI line at lambda = 525.0 nm drops to 25 percent of its value at the disk's center. The data base of information was analyzed and corrected for effects such as scattered light and atmospheric reflection. The solar variability and the measurement techniques are described. The observation data sets, the corrections made to the data, and the observed variations, are discussed. It is stated that similar spectral lines at lambda = 525.0 nm, which are common in the solar spectrum, probably exhibit similar radius changes. All portions of the sun are weighted equally so that it is concluded that, within spectral lines, the radiating area of the sun is increased at the solar maximum.

Ulrich, Roger K.↗

AIRES-NODE

This software package performs time series forecasting for engineering systems using neural controlled differential equations. Neural controlled differential equations are continuous time analogues to recurrent neural networks. AIRES-NODE is particularly well suited for dynamic systems which are subject to external forcing terms and time-dependent boundary conditions. AIRES-NODE provides an encoder-decoder architecture which allows for variable-length forecasts to be made and is not limited to a fixed time step size when forecasting. Additionally, by utilizing a novel combination of a variational autoencoder and neural controlled differential equations, the AIRES-NODE package is capable of producing probabilistic future forecasts.

Gurecky, William [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

The latent variable proximal point algorithm for variational problems with inequality constraints

The latent variable proximal point (LVPP) algorithm is a framework for solving infinite-dimensional variational problems with pointwise inequality constraints. The algorithm is a saddle point reformulation of the Bregman proximal point algorithm. At the continuous level, the two formulations are equivalent, but the saddle point formulation is more amenable to discretization because it introduces a structure-preserving transformation between a latent function space and the feasible set. Working in this latent space is much more convenient for enforcing inequality constraints than the feasible set, as discretizations can employ general linear combinations of suitable basis functions, and nonlinear solvers can involve general additive updates. LVPP yields numerical methods with observed mesh-independence for obstacle problems, contact, fracture, plasticity, and others besides; in many cases, for the first time. The framework also extends to more complex constraints, providing means to enforce convexity in the Monge–Ampère equation and handling quasi-variational inequalities, where the underlying constraint depends implicitly on the unknown solution. Here, in this paper, we describe the LVPP algorithm in a general form and apply it to ten problems from across mathematics.

Inequality constraints↗

LiMo 8 O 10 : Polar Crystal Structure with Infinite Edge-Sharing Molybdenum Octahedra

Here, polycrystalline LiMo 8 O 10 was prepared in a sealed Mo crucible at 1380 °C for 48 h using the conventional high-temperature solid-state method. The polar tetragonal crystal structure (space group I4 1 md) is confirmed based on the Rietveld refinement of powder neutron diffraction and 7 Li/ 6 Li solid-state NMR. The crystal structure features infinite chains of Mo 4 O 5 (i.e., Mo 2 Mo 4/2 O 6/2 O 6/3 ) as a repeat unit containing edge-sharing Mo 6 octahedra with strong Mo–Mo metal bonding along the chain. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy of the Mo-L 3 edge is consistent with the formal Mo valence/configuration. Magnetic measurements reveal that LiMo 8 O 10 is paramagnetic down to 1.8 K. Temperature-dependent resistivity [ρ(T)] measurement indicates a semiconducting behavior that can be fitted with Mott’s variable range hopping conduction mechanism in the temperature range of 215 and 45 K. The ρ(T) curve exhibits an exponential increase below 5 K with a large ratio of ρ 1.8 /ρ 300 = 435. LiMo 8 O 10 shows a negative field-dependent magnetoresistance between 2 and 25 K. Heat capacity measurement fitted with the modified Debye model yields the Debye temperature of 365 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airborne measurements of air pollution chemistry and transport. 1: Initial survey of major air basins in California

An instrumented aircraft has been used to study photochemical air pollution in the State of California. Simultaneous measurements of the most important chemical constituents (ozone, total oxidant, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides, as well as several meteorological variables) were made. State-of-the-art measurement techniques and sampling procedures are discussed. Data from flights over the South Coast Air Basin, the San Francisco Bay Area, the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Clara and Salinas Valleys, and the Pacific Ocean within 200 miles of the California coast are presented. Pollutants were found to be concentrated in distant layers up to at least 18,000 feet. In many of these layers, the pollutant concentrations were much higher than at ground level. These findings bring into serious question the validity of the present practice of depending solely on data from ground-based monitoring stations for predictive models.

Gloria, H. R.↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.

Endo, Kota↗

From models to reality: a systematic review on simulated and measured residential heat pump energy savings

High-performance HVAC solutions are central to residential energy management. A substantial share of these are electric, reversible-cycle systems, with heat pumps representing the largest portion of current and near-term adoption. This review synthesizes peer-reviewed and grey literature on residential space heating and cooling heat pumps. The academic literature is dominated by modeling (73.8%), with limited field measurement (13.1%). Grey literature from United States serve as a supplemental resource providing measured savings. Conversions from electric-resistance heating consistently show the largest site energy reductions, while oil/propane baselines yield moderate savings, and gas baseline scenario often deliver small and region-dependent savings. This study cross-checks the grey literature measured data with simulation data filtered from the ResStock dataset. The comparison indicates a discrepancy between simulations and measured data: simulated site EUIs are typically lower than measured EUIs, but percentage energy savings fall in similar ranges, implying simulations capture directional effects while underestimating energy use. Factors associated with variability and model–measurement differences include system characterization and control representation (e.g., backup heat engagement, thermostat/setpoint strategies, commissioning/installation quality), occupant behavior, weather normalization, metering scope, and envelope characterization. This paper also outlines the proposed methodology for comparing simulation and measured data for heat pumps. It emphasizes the metrics used for comparison and units harmonization, building characteristics matching, and compact metadata are needed for simulations to match measured data. The proposed methodology is expected to improve the credibility of simulated savings as measured evidence grows.

Yu, Lili↗

The Santa Barbara Binary-disk Code Comparison

We have performed numerical calculations of a binary interacting with a gas disk, using 11 different numerical methods and a standard binary-disk setup. The goal of this study is to determine whether all codes agree on a numerically converged solution and to determine the necessary resolution for convergence and the number of binary orbits that must be computed to reach an agreed-upon relaxed state of the binary-disk system. We find that all codes can agree on a converged solution (depending on the diagnostic being measured). The zone spacing required for most codes to reach a converged measurement of the torques applied to the binary by the disk is roughly 1% of the binary separation in the vicinity of the binary components. For our disk model to reach a relaxed state, codes must be run for at least 200 binary orbits, corresponding to about a viscous time for our parameters, 0.2(a 2 Ω B /v) is the kinematic viscosity. The largest discrepancies between codes resulted from the dimensionality of the setup (3D vs. 2D disks). We find good agreement in the total torque on the binary between codes, although the partition of this torque between the gravitational torque, orbital accretion torque, and spin accretion torque depends sensitively on the sink prescriptions employed. In agreement with previous studies, we find a modest difference in torques and accretion variability between 2D and 3D disk models. We find cavity precession rates to be appreciably faster in 3D than in 2D.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evidence of Spin-Interference Effects in Exclusive 𝐽/𝜓 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − Photoproduction in Ultraperipheral Heavy-Ion Collisions

Here, we report the first evidence of spin interference in exclusive 𝐽/𝜓 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝑒 − photoproduction in ultraperipheral heavy-ion collisions at STAR at $\sqrt{𝑠_{𝑁⁢𝑁}}$ = 200 GeV. In Au + Au collisions, a negative cos⁡(2⁢𝜙) modulation is found for 𝑝 𝑇 < 120 MeV/𝑐 with a significance of 3.2⁢𝜎, while the isobar data (Ru + Ru, Zr + Zr) show a consistent negative modulation with a significance of 1.9⁢𝜎, opposite in sign to that in 𝜌 0 → 𝜋 + ⁢𝜋 − photoproduction. This establishes for the first time that the interference sign is controlled by the spin structure of the final-state daughters, resolving the ambiguity present in the all-boson 𝜌 0 channel. The compact 𝐽/𝜓 probes gluon distributions at perturbative scales, resulting in a weaker modulation and providing stringent constraints on color glass condensate calculations. These findings demonstrate that spin-dependent interference in heavy vector mesons provides a new, experimentally accessible handle on gluon structure beyond traditional cross-section measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Charge Carrier Transport in Iron Pyrite Thin Films: Disorder-Induced Variable-Range Hopping

Here, the origin of p-type conductivity and the mechanism responsible for low carrier mobility were investigated in pyrite (FeS 2 ) thin films. Temperature-dependent resistivity measurements (10-400 K) were performed on polycrystalline and nanostructured thin films prepared by three different methods: (1) spray pyrolysis, (2) hot-injection synthesized and spin-coated nanocubes, and (3) pulsed laser deposition. The films have a high hole density (10 18 -10 19 ) cm -3 and low mobility (0.1-4 cm 2 V -1 s -1 ) regardless of the method used for their preparation. The charge transport mechanism is determined to be thermally activated conduction (TAC) at near room temperature, with Mott-type variable-range hopping (VRH) of holes via localized states occurring at lower temperatures. The density functional theory (DFT) predicts that sulfur vacancy induces localized defect states within the band gap and the charge remains localized around the defect. The data indicates that the electronic properties including hopping transport in pyrite thin films can be correlated to sulfur vacancy-related defects. The results provide insights into the electronic properties of pyrite thin films and their implications for charge transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A combined first principles study of the structural, magnetic, and phonon properties of monolayer CrI3

The first magnetic 2D material discovered, monolayer (ML) CrI3, is particularly fascinating due to its ground state ferromagnetism. However, because ML materials are difficult to probe experimentally, much remains unresolved about ML CrI3’s structural, electronic, and magnetic properties. Here, we leverage Density Functional Theory (DFT) and high-accuracy Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) simulations to predict lattice parameters, magnetic moments, and spin–phonon and spin–lattice coupling of ML CrI3. We exploit a recently developed surrogate Hessian DMC line search technique to determine CrI3’s ML geometry with DMC accuracy, yielding lattice parameters in good agreement with recently published STM measurements—an accomplishment given the ~10% variability in previous DFT-derived estimates depending upon the functional. Strikingly, we find that previous DFT predictions of ML CrI3’s magnetic spin moments are correct on average across a unit cell but miss critical local spatial fluctuations in the spin density revealed by more accurate DMC. DMC predicts that magnetic moments in ML CrI3 are 3.62 μB per chromium and -0.145 μB per iodine, both larger than previous DFT predictions. The large disparate moments together with the large spin–orbit coupling of CrI3’s I-p orbital suggest a ligand superexchange-dominated magnetic anisotropy in ML CrI3, corroborating recent observations of magnons in its 2D limit. We also find that ML CrI3 exhibits a substantial spin–phonon coupling of ~3.32 cm-1. Our work, thus, establishes many of ML CrI3’s key properties, while also continuing to demonstrate the pivotal role that DMC can assume in the study of magnetic and other 2D materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Viscoplastic analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber liner

A viscoplastic stress-strain analysis of an experimental cylindrical thrust chamber is presented. A viscoelastic constitutive model incorporating a single internal state variable that represents kinematic hardening was employed to investigate whether such a viscoplastic model could predict the experimentally observed behavior of the thrust chamber. Two types of loading cycles were considered: a short cycle of 3.5 sec. duration that corresponded to the experiments, and an extended loading cycle of 485.1 sec. duration that is typical of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) operating cycle. The analysis qualitatively replicated the deformation behavior of the component as observed in experiments designed to simulate SSME operating conditions. The analysis also showed that the mode and location in the component may depend on the loading cycle. The results indicate that using viscoplastic models for structural analysis can lead to a more realistic life assessment of thrust chambers.

Arya, Vinod K.↗