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At least 577 records · Page 32

Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Characterization of HRRR-simulated rotor layer wind speeds and clouds along the coast of California

Stratocumulus clouds, with their low cloud base and top, affect the atmospheric boundary layer wind and turbulence profile, thereby modulating wind energy resources. GOES satellite data reveal an abundance of stratocumulus clouds in the late spring and summer months off the coast of northern and central California, where there are active plans to deploy floating offshore wind farms at two lease areas (near Morro Bay and Humboldt). Since the fall of 2020, two buoys equipped with multiple instruments, including Doppler lidar, have been deployed for about 1 year in these wind farm lease areas to assess the rotor layer wind conditions in these locations. The objective of this study is to evaluate how well the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model represents stratocumulus cloud characteristics and turbine-relevant rotor layer winds (surface to 300 m) by comparing HRRR simulations with buoy and satellite observations. We first find that the HRRR model reproduces the seasonal cycle of cloud top height reasonably well in these regions. However, during the warm season – especially at Morro Bay – the HRRR-simulated stratocumulus clouds tend to have lower tops by about 150 m and exhibit weaker diurnal cycles than satellite observations. Our analysis also shows that rotor layer wind speeds and vertical shear are stronger at Humboldt than at Morro Bay, and both are generally stronger under clear-sky conditions. Finally, the HRRR model bias in rotor layer wind speed is small under cloudy conditions but larger and dependent on observed wind speed under clear skies. Specifically, HRRR underestimates wind speeds at Morro Bay and overestimates them at Humboldt under clear-sky conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Decreasing wind speed extrapolation error via domain-specific feature extraction and selection

Abstract. Model uncertainty is a significant challenge in the wind energy industry and can lead to mischaracterization of millions of dollars' worth of wind resources. Machine learning methods, notably deep artificial neural networks (ANNs), are capable of modeling turbulent and chaotic systems and offer a promising tool to produce high-accuracy wind speed forecasts and extrapolations. This paper uses data collected by profiling Doppler lidars over three field campaigns to investigate the efficacy of using ANNs for wind speed vertical extrapolation in a variety of terrains, and it quantifies the role of domain knowledge in ANN extrapolation accuracy. A series of 11 meteorological parameters (features) are used as ANN inputs, and the resulting output accuracy is compared with that of both standard log-law and power-law extrapolations. It is found that extracted nondimensional inputs, namely turbulence intensity, current wind speed, and previous wind speed, are the features that most reliably improve the ANN's accuracy, providing up to a 65 % and 52 % increase in extrapolation accuracy over log-law and power-law predictions, respectively. The volume of input data is also deemed important for achieving robust results. One test case is analyzed in depth using dimensional and nondimensional features, showing that the feature nondimensionalization drastically improves network accuracy and robustness for sparsely sampled atmospheric cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

New methods to improve the vertical extrapolation of near-surface offshore wind speeds

Accurate characterization of the offshore wind resource has been hindered by a sparsity of wind speed observations that span offshore wind turbine rotor-swept heights. Although public availability of floating lidar data is increasing, most offshore wind speed observations continue to come from buoy-based and satellite-based near-surface measurements. The aim of this study is to develop and validate novel vertical extrapolation methods that can accurately estimate wind speed time series across rotor-swept heights using these near-surface measurements. We contrast the conventional logarithmic profile against three novel approaches: a logarithmic profile with a long-term stability correction, a single-column model, and a machine-learning model. These models are developed and validated using 1 year of observations from two floating lidars deployed in US Atlantic offshore wind energy areas. We find that the machine-learning model significantly outperforms all other models across all stability regimes, seasons, and times of day. Machine-learning model performance is considerably improved by including the air–sea temperature difference, which provides some accounting for offshore atmospheric stability. Finally, we find no degradation in machine-learning model performance when tested 83 km from its training location, suggesting promising future applications in extrapolating 10 m wind speeds from spatially resolved satellite-based wind atlases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Analytical correlation of centrifugal compressor design geometry for maximum efficiency with specific speed

Centrifugal compressor performance was examined analytically to determine optimum geometry for various applications as characterized by specific speed. Seven specific losses were calculated for various combinations of inlet tip-exit diameter ratio, inlet hub-tip diameter ratio, blade exit backsweep, and inlet-tip absolute tangential velocity for solid body prewhirl. The losses considered were inlet guide vane loss, blade loading loss, skin friction loss, recirculation loss, disk friction loss, vaneless diffuser loss, and vaned diffuser loss. Maximum total efficiencies ranged from 0.497 to 0.868 for a specific speed range of 0.257 to 1.346. Curves of rotor exit absolute flow angle, inlet tip-exit diameter ratio, inlet hub-tip diameter ratio, head coefficient and blade exit backsweep are presented over a range of specific speeds for various inducer tip speeds to permit rapid selection of optimum compressor size and shape for a variety of applications.

Galvas, M. R.↗

Observations of oceanic white caps for moderate to highwind speeds

A series of photographs of sea surface whitecap conditions for wind speeds of 10 to 25 m/sec was obtained and analyzed for areal coverage of white water. The results are in good agreement with semiempirical calculations based on the wind speed and the development of the wave spectrum only when the contribution of thin foam streaks oriented in the direction of the wind is neglected. Since both the actively forming whitecaps and the thin foam streaks contribute significantly to the microwave emissivity of the sea surface, it is important that the foam streaks be included in the theory but differentiated from large white caps and foam patches. A simple relationship that accounts for the foam streaks based on the rate of energy transfer, the wind speed, and the wave spectrum is proposed. By means of empirically derived constant terms for the microwave signatures of white caps and foam streaks, this theory was adapted to the prediction of the increase in brightness temperature due to foam, with reasonable results to wind speeds of 20 m/sec.

Ross, D. B.↗

Supercritical aerodynamics - Worthwhile over a range of speeds.

Supercritical flow exists whenever a high enough forward speed causes local flow over a lifting surface or body to exceed the sonic or critical value. The principal difference between conventional subsonic aerodynamic technology and supercritical technology lies in the cross-sectional profile of lifting surfaces. The characteristics of the supercritical airfoil suggests three potential benefits from applications to civil aircraft. For aircraft designed to operate at moderate subsonic speeds the supercritical airfoil may permit the reduction of structural weight. Supercritical technology would have a second application in permitting efficient high subsonic speed cruise by delaying the transonic drag rise. Another advantage of the thick supercritical wing shows up at low speeds.

Ayers, T. G.↗

Flexible rotor balancing by the influence coefficient method. Part 1: Evaluation of the exact point-speed and least squares procedures

The practical aspects of balancing real, flexible rotors were investigated through inclusion of rotor out-of-roundness data at the measurement probe locations. The computer program was demonstrated to be fully capable of handling out-of-roundness data in the investigation. Testing was performed predominantly with a machine having a 41-inch long, 126-pound rotor. This rotor was operated over a speed range encompassing three rotor-bearing system critical speeds. Both balancing procedures were evaluated for several different conditions of initial rotor unbalance. Safe (and slow) passage through all the critical speeds was obtained after two or three balancing runs in most cases. The Least Squares procedure was found to be generally equivalent in capability to the Exact Point-Speed procedure for the configurations studies. (U)

Tessarzik, J. M.↗

Effect of rotor design tip speed on noise of a 1.21 pressure ratio model fan under static conditions

Preliminary results are presented for a reverberant-field noise investigation of three fan stages designed for the same overall total pressure ratio of 1.21 at different rotor tip speeds (750, 900, and 1050 ft/sec). The stages were tested statically in a 15-inch-diameter model lift fan installed in a wing pod located in the test section of a wind tunnel. Although the fan stages produced essentially the same design pressure ratio, marked differences were observed in the variation of fan noise with fan operating speed. At design speed, the forward-radiated sound power level was approximately the same for the 750 ft/sec and 900 ft/sec stages. For the 1050 ft/sec stage, the design-speed forward-radiated power level was about 7 db higher due to the generation of multiple pure tone noise.

Loeffler, I. J.↗

Redundant speed control for brushless Hall effect motor

A speed control system for a brushless Hall effect device equipped direct current (D.C.) motor is described. Separate windings of the motor are powered by separate speed responsive power sources. A change in speed, upward or downward, because of the failure of a component of one of the power sources results in a corrective signal being generated in the other power source to supply an appropriate power level and polarity to one winding to cause the motor to be corrected in speed.

Nola, F. J.↗

Noise and wake structure measurements in a subsonic tip speed fan

The results of an experimental program are reported which show the effect of blade angle, tip speed, fan pressure ratio, and thrust on noise of a model fan of 0.457m (18 inches) diameter operating at subsonic tip speeds at pressure ratios between 1.06 and 1.15. The fan used in this study had 12 blades, 7 stator vanes, and a spacing between the rotor and stator of 1.85 blade chords. This fan was originally designed for aerodynamic testing and was considered a good performer. It was used in the noise test program as it incorporated features found to reduce noise in an earlier analytical parametric study. For a given pressure ratio the fan was shown to exhibit minimum noise at the blade angle and tip speed near that of maximum aerodynamic efficiency. Also, the noise level and spectrum character of this fan showed excellent correlation with scaled data of a similar larger diameter fan. Results of the program confirm the trends shown in the earlier analytical parametric study which showed that fan noise could be reduced for a given thrust and pressure ratio by increasing fan solidity, improving fan aerodynamic design, and operating the fan at an optimum subsonic tip speed. In addition to noise, the blade wake characteristics at the leading edge of the stator were measured in this program. At root and tip sections some difference between predicted and measured wakes was found. However comparisons between predicted and measured wakes at mid span locations was found to be good.

Magliozzi, B.↗

Voight variable speed drive

The variable speed drive transmission is mounted within the gondola and connected with the wind turbine blades and the hub. This unit is designed for the production of ac power. The turbine turns by means of the variable speed drive and a set of synchronous three phase generators. This motion is controlled automatically by two wind rosettes in such a way that the wind turbine always opposes the wind direction. The Voight variable speed drive is a mechanical variable positive drive gear transmission. It has an unlimited power and torque transmission, a constant ratio with high degree of accuracy, a speed variation over a wide range, and a nonslip drive.

Tompkin, J.↗

High-tip-speed, low-loading transonic fan stage. Part 3: Final report

Tests were conducted on a high-tip-speed, low-loading transonic fan stage to determine the performance and inlet flow distortion tolerance of the design. The fan was designed for high efficiency at a moderate pressure ratio by designing the hub section to operate at minimum loss when the tip operates with an oblique shock. The design objective was an efficiency of 86 percent at a pressure ratio of 1.5, a specific flow (flow per unit annulus area) of 42 lb/sec-sq. ft (205.1 kgm/sec-m sq), and a tip speed of 1600 ft/sec (488.6 m/sec). During testing, a peak efficiency of 84 percent was achieved at design speed and design specific flow. At the design speed and pressure ratio, the flow was 4 percent greater than design, efficiency was 81 percent, and a stall margin of 24 percent was obtained. The stall line was improved with hub radial distortion but was reduced when the stage was tested with tip radial and circumferential flow distortions. Blade-to-blade values of static pressures were measured over the rotor blade tips.

Ware, T. C.↗

Effect of rotor design tip speed on noise of a 1.21 pressure ratio model fan under static conditions

Preliminary results are presented for a reverberant-field noise investigation of three fan stages designed for the same overall total pressure ratio of 1.21 at different rotor tip speeds (750, 900, and 1050 fps). The stages were tested statically in a 15-in.-dia model lift fan installed in a wing pod located in the test section of a wind tunnel. Although the fan stages produced essentially the same design pressure ratio, marked differences were observed in the variation of fan noise with fan operating speed. At design speed, the forward-radiated sound power level was approximately the same for the 750 and 900 fps stages. For the 1050 fps stage, the design-speed forward-radiated power level was about 7 dB higher due to the generation of multiple pure tone noise.

Loeffler, I. J.↗

Wind tunnel measurements of forward speed effects on jet noise from suppressor nozzles and comparison with flight test data

The results of a test program conducted in the NASA Ames 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel to determine the effect of forward speed on the noise levels emanating from a conical ejector nozzle, a 32-spoke suppressor nozzle, and a 104-elliptical-tube suppressor nozzle are reported. It is shown that noise levels are reduced as forward speed is increased and that, for one suppressor configuration, forward speed enhances suppression. Comparisons of noise measurements made in the wind tunnel with those obtained in flight tests show good agreement. It is concluded that wind tunnels provide an effective means of measuring the effect of forward speed on aircraft noise.

Atencio, A., Jr.↗

Flexible rotor balancing by the influence coefficient method: Multiple critical speeds with rigid or flexible supports

Experimental tests were conducted to demonstrate the ability of the influence coefficient method to achieve precise balance of flexible rotors of virtually any design for operation through virtually any speed range. Various practical aspects of flexible-rotor balancing were investigated. Tests were made on a laboratory quality machine having a 122 cm (48 in.) long rotor weighing 50 kg (110 lb) and covering a speed range up to 18000 rpm. The balancing method was in every instance effective, practical, and economical and permitted safe rotor operation over the full speed range covering four rotor bending critical speeds. Improved correction weight removal methods for rotor balancing were investigated. Material removal from a rotating disk was demonstrated through application of a commercially available laser.

Tessarzik, J. M.↗