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At least 577 records · Page 32

SU-G-TeP4-06: An Integrated Application for Radiation Therapy Treatment Plan Directives, Management, and Reporting

Purpose: With electronic medical records, patient information for the treatment planning process has become disseminated across multiple applications with limited quality control and many associated failure modes. We present the development of a single application with a centralized database to manage the planning process. Methods: The system was designed to replace current functionalities of (i) static directives representing the physician intent for the prescription and planning goals, localization information for delivery, and other information, (ii) planning objective reports, (iii) localization and image guidance documents and (iv) the official radiation therapy prescription in the medical record. Using the Eclipse Scripting Application Programming Interface, a plug-in script with an associated domain-specific SQL Server database was created to manage the information in (i)–(iv). The system’s user interface and database were designed by a team of physicians, clinical physicists, database experts, and software engineers to ensure usability and robustness for clinical use. Results: The resulting system has been fully integrated within the TPS via a custom script and database. Planning scenario templates, version control, approvals, and logic-based quality control allow this system to fully track and document the planning process as well as physician approval of tradeoffs while improving the consistency of the data. Multiple plans and prescriptions are supported along with non-traditional dose objectives and evaluation such as biologically corrected models, composite dose limits, and management of localization goals. User-specific custom views were developed for the attending physician review, physicist plan checks, treating therapists, and peer review in chart rounds. Conclusion: A method was developed to maintain cohesive information throughout the planning process within one integrated system by using a custom treatment planning management application that interfaces directly with the TPS. Future work includes quantifying the improvements in quality, safety and efficiency that are possible with the routine clinical use of this system. Supported in part by NIH-P01-CA-059827.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An ontology-based fault generation and fault propagation analysis approach for safety-critical computer systems at the design stage

Abstract Fault propagation analysis is a process used to determine the consequences of faults residing in a computer system. A typical computer system consists of diverse components (e.g., electronic and software components), thus, the faults contained in these components tend to possess diverse characteristics. How to describe and model such diverse faults, and further determine fault propagation through different components are challenging problems to be addressed in the fault propagation analysis. This paper proposes an ontology-based approach, which is an integrated method allowing for the generation, injection, and propagation through inference of diverse faults at an early stage of the design of a computer system. The results generated by the proposed framework can verify system robustness and identify safety and reliability risks with limited design level information. In this paper, we propose an ontological framework and its application to analyze an example safety-critical computer system. The analysis result shows that the proposed framework is capable of inferring fault propagation paths through software and hardware components and is effective in predicting the impact of faults.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

Discrete Event Simulation-Based Timeline Validation Using R2U2

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM), the top-level software control system in a distributed, hierarchical Autonomous System Management Architecture is, like most modern spacecraft software control systems, heavily data-driven. For example, schedules (timelines) will be developed on the ground and, due to the high degree of autonomy, contain complex procedures involving conditional branching, variable timing, and resource contention resolution. In order to verify that an uploaded timeline will function correctly, it is necessary to explore the feasible set of possible executions. While it is possible to test a timeline using a mission simulation, the complexity of the system and duration of a timeline limits the number of trials and therefore the test coverage. To address this problem, the VSM team is using a discrete event system model that can rapidly generate from a timeline sets of event sequences using Monte Carlo techniques. To achieve rapid and trustworthy checking of the event sequences, we use an offline version of the runtime model checking tool R2U2. This presentation describes the approach the VSM team is using to implement the discrete event simulation and evaluate event sequences using R2U2. The presentation will discuss: 1. Description of the timelines by VSM in the context of VSM operations 2. Expansion of a timeline into a sequence of atomic events 3. Adjustment, in the Monte Carlo environment, of an event sequence to account for uncertainty, external events, and failures 4. Definition of R2U2 input and mission-time linear temporal logic files 5. Generation and use of R2U2 verdict sequences 6. Lessons learned and future work

Verification↗

Control algorithm implementation for a redundant degree of freedom manipulator

This project's purpose is to develop and implement control algorithms for a kinematically redundant robotic manipulator. The manipulator is being developed concurrently by Odetics Inc., under internal research and development funding. This SBIR contract supports algorithm conception, development, and simulation, as well as software implementation and integration with the manipulator hardware. The Odetics Dexterous Manipulator is a lightweight, high strength, modular manipulator being developed for space and commercial applications. It has seven fully active degrees of freedom, is electrically powered, and is fully operational in 1 G. The manipulator consists of five self-contained modules. These modules join via simple quick-disconnect couplings and self-mating connectors which allow rapid assembly/disassembly for reconfiguration, transport, or servicing. Each joint incorporates a unique drive train design which provides zero backlash operation, is insensitive to wear, and is single fault tolerant to motor or servo amplifier failure. The sensing system is also designed to be single fault tolerant. Although the initial prototype is not space qualified, the design is well-suited to meeting space qualification requirements. The control algorithm design approach is to develop a hierarchical system with well defined access and interfaces at each level. The high level endpoint/configuration control algorithm transforms manipulator endpoint position/orientation commands to joint angle commands, providing task space motion. At the same time, the kinematic redundancy is resolved by controlling the configuration (pose) of the manipulator, using several different optimizing criteria. The center level of the hierarchy servos the joints to their commanded trajectories using both linear feedback and model-based nonlinear control techniques. The lowest control level uses sensed joint torque to close torque servo loops, with the goal of improving the manipulator dynamic behavior. The control algorithms are subjected to a dynamic simulation before implementation.

Cohan, Steve↗

Simulating the Formation of Lunar Floor-Fracture Craters Using Elastoviscoplastic Relaxation

Lunar floor-fracture craters formed during the height of mare basalt emplacement. Due to a general temporal and spatial relation with the maria, these craters, numbering some 200, may be diagnostic of the thermal structure of the crust during this time. As the name suggests, these craters exhibit brittle failure, generally limited to the central floor region. That, and a shallower depth than fresh lunar craters, has led to two main theories as to their formation: laccolith emplacement under the crater and viscous relaxation. The implications of each model for the state of the Moon's crust during this time are quite different, so the viability of each model must be checked. Laccolith emplacement has been treated elsewhere. However, previous attempts to study the relaxation of the craters have assumed only a uniform, Newtonian viscous response of the near surface to the topographic driving forces, and simply postulated that the fractures resulted from tensile stresses associated with floor uplift. Here, we use a more sophisticated rheological model that includes not only non-Newtonian viscous behavior (i.e., the viscosity is stress-dependent), but also incorporates elastic behavior and a plastic component to the rheology to directly simulate the formation of the floor fractures. The results of our simulations show that while elastoviscoplastic relaxation is potentially viable for larger floor-fracture craters, it is not viable for craters with diameters < or = 60 km, the size of the majority of floor-fracture craters. We employ the finite element method, a numerical technique well suited for boundary-value problems, via the commercially available MARC software package. To test the viability of topographic relaxation, our goal is to prepare the simulations as to maximize the amount of relaxation. We take advantage of the natural axisymmetry of craters, simulating one radial plane. Initial shapes are based on data for fresh craters from Pike. To simplify implementation, a fourth order polynomial is used for the basin, while a third order inverse function is used for the rim. This form closely approximates the long-wavelength behavior of complex craters, while ignoring higher-frequency topography, save the rim. This approximation is appropriate because crater relaxation is strongly controlled by long-wavelength topography. Loading is accomplished assuming a uniform gravity field (1.62 m/s-square) and a uniform density of 2900 kg/cubic m. The initial stress state is set to be hydrostatic, with an additional pressure term to account for any overlying topography. This additional pressure term is tapered exponentially with depth. While the simulations quickly settle on a preferred stress state, and while the final solution is fairly insensitive to the choice of the e-folding depth of the taper, selecting an e-folding depth close to the diameter of the crater sets the initial stress state near the preferred state. We assume a diuranally averaged surface temperature of -20 C, and allow temperature to increase with depth at a rate of 50 K//km. Assuming a thermal conductivity of 2 W/in/K, this gradient translates to a heat flow of 100mW/square m, an extremely high value for the Moon. Temperature, of course, will not increase without bound. To maximize relaxation, we allow our temperature profile to increase linearly until it reaches the solidus (assumed to be 1200C) at a depth of 24.4 km, at which point it is kept constant. The presence of melt will drop the bulk viscosity; however, we have no rheological control for partial melts. Therefore, we make no attempt to simulate this situation. Elastoviscoplastic rheological model. In general, geologic materials can behave in three main ways: elastically, viscously (via solid-state creep), and brittly (plasticity is a continuum approach to simulate this phenomenon). We combine these three deformation mechanisms in an extended Maxwell solid, where the total strain can be broken down into a simple summation of the elastic, creep, and plastic strains. In relaxation phenomena in general, the system takes advantage of any means possible to eliminate deviatoric stresses by relaxing away the topography. Previous analyses have only modeled the viscous response. Comparatively, the elastic response in our model can augment the relaxation, to a point. This effect decreases as the elastic response becomes stiffer; indeed, in the limit of infinite elastic Young's modulus (and with no plasticity), the solution converges on the purely viscous solution. Igneous rocks common to the lunar near-surface have Young's modulii in the range of 10-100 GPa. To maximize relaxation, we use a Young's modulus of 10 GPa. (There is negligible sensitivity to the other elastic modulus, the Poisson's ratio; we use 0.25.) For the viscous response, we use a flow law for steady-state creep in thoroughly dried Columbia diabase, because the high plagioclase (about 70 vol%) and orthopyroxene (about 17 vol%) content is similar to the composition of the lunar highland crust as described by remote sensing and sample studies: noritic anorthosite. This flow law is highly non-Newtonian, i.e., the viscosity is highly stress dependent. That, and the variability with temperature, stands in strong contrast to previous examinations of lunar floor-fracture crater relaxation. To model discrete, brittle faulting, we assume "Byerlee's rule," a standard geodynamical technique. We implement this "rule" with an-angle of internal friction of about 40 deg, and a higher-than-normal cohesion of about 3.2 MPa (to approximate the breaking of unfractured rock). The actual behavior of geologic materials is more complex than in our rheological model, so the uncertainties in the plasticity do not represent the state-of-the-art error. Additional information is contained in the original.

Dombard, A. J.↗

SU-F-T-285: Evaluation of a Patient DVH-Based IMRT QA System

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical performance of a patient DVH-based QA system for prostate VMAT QA. Methods: Mobius3D(M3D) is a QA software with an independent beam model and dose engine. The MobiusFX(MFX) add-on predicts patient dose using treatment machine log files. We commissioned the Mobius beam model in two steps. First, the stock beam model was customized using machine commissioning data, then verified against the TPS with 12 simple phantom plans and 7 clinical 3D plans. Secondly, the Dosimetric Leaf Gap(DLG) in the Mobius model was fine-tuned for VMAT treatment based on ion chamber measurements for 6 clinical VMAT plans. Upon successful commissioning, we retrospectively performed IMRT QA for 12 VMAT plans with the Mobius system as well as the ArcCHECK-3DVH system. Selected patient DVH values (PTV D95, D50; Bladder D2cc, Dmean; Rectum D2cc) were compared between TPS, M3D, MFX, and 3DVH. Results: During the first commissioning step, TPS and M3D calculated target Dmean for 3D plans agree within 0.7%±0.7%, with 3D gamma passing rates of 98%±2%. In the second commissioning step, the Mobius DLG was adjusted by 1.2mm from the stock value, reducing the average difference between MFX calculation and ion chamber measurement from 3.2% to 0.1%. In retrospective prostate VMAT QA, 5 of 60 MFX calculated DVH values have a deviation greater than 5% compared to TPS. One large deviation at high dose level was identified as a potential QA failure. This echoes the 3DVH QA result, which identified 2 instances of large DVH deviation on the same structure. For all DVH’s evaluated, M3D and MFX show high level of agreement (0.1%±0.2%), indicating that the observed deviation is likely from beam modelling differences rather than delivery errors. Conclusion: Mobius system provides a viable solution for DVH based VMAT QA, with the capability of separating TPS and delivery errors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enhancement of EM Pump Performance through Modeling and Testing

Liquid sodium has seen development as a nuclear reactor coolant in the United States for over 50 years. While sodium has many desirable characteristics as a heat transfer fluid, its reactivity poses numerous engineering challenges for even the most basic plant components like pumps. Despite the challenges, mechanical pumps have seen success in sodium service albeit at the expense of simplicity and flexibility. In fact, significant failures of these pumps have been recorded which can be attributed to their complexity. Notwithstanding the complexity, mechanical pumps are still widely proposed for the main circuit pump of sodium cooled reactors. However, an alternative to mechanical pumps are Electromagnetic Induction Pumps (EMIPs) which use the principle of the Lorentz Force. EMIPs avoid mechanically moving parts in contact with sodium which simplifies the design by avoiding mechanical wear and seals. Therefore, these pumps are generally safer and more reliable than their mechanical counterparts. That being said, EMIPs suffer from relatively low efficiencies that range from 5% to 45%. Some of the inefficiencies are inherent to the EMIPs pumps; namely, inefficiencies arise in the form of resistive heating losses in the fluid itself. However, other inefficiencies arise from Edge Effects which include Finite Length and Finite Width effects. Due to the significant safety advantages EMIPs have compared to mechanical pumps, there is a strong motivation to integrate these technologies into the design of Generation IV liquid-metal-cooled nuclear power plants. However, EMIPs have low efficiencies partly attributed to Edge Effects. Much of the literature focusing on Edge Effects is dated or simply does not exist in the public domain. More recently, numerical models of EMIPs have shown promising results. However, these models are often custom solvers or use complex software suits which limit their application. This report describes the work completed to understand Edge Effects in two EMIPs designs. These designs are the Annular Linear Induction Pump (ALIP) and Permanent Magnet Induction Pump (PMIP) also known as a Moving Magnet Pump (MMP). The methodology developed during this project aim at measuring key performance parameters (pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance) using high temperature liquid-sodium. Baseline experimental measurements were then used to verify the accuracy of numerical models developed in the software suit ANSYS/FLUENT. On the experimental side, instrumentation was developed to characterize the pressure-flowrate and efficiency-slip performance of both the ALIP and PMIP in high-temperature liquid-sodium. Additionally, instrumentation was developed to measure potential output pressure pulsations and the magnetic field distributions. Moreover, a specialized ALIP was constructed to study the impacts magnetic field tapering, also known as coil grading, on the Finite Length Effect. Lastly, experimental performance curves of the PMIP were collected at 300 oC and 600 oC and compared to analytical theory which accounted for Finite Width Effects. These results showed that the Finite Width Effect and non-uniform magnetic field in a PMIP impact the performance. On the numerical side, models were developed using the software suit FLUENT/ANSYS. These methods were initially compared against a simple MHD flow in a Permanent Magnet Electromagnet Flowmeter (PMEMFM). The results were significant in that they showed agreeance between the numerical model and demonstrated that PMEMFM’s could be calibrated numerically. These modeling methods were then applied to a prototypic PMIP. Results showed that this simple model provided reasonably accurate results of the PMIP p-Q performance.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

LogPath: Log data based energy consumption analysis enabling electric vehicle path optimization

Vehicle navigation and path optimization require a more meticulous approach when it deals with EVs (electric vehicles) and SDVs (software-defined vehicles), due to lengthy charging times and the lack of charging infrastructure. Long-distance freight EV trucking needs path guidance with accurate energy consumption estimates to prevent charging-related failures. We developed a novel energy consumption estimation approach that only uses battery log data to extract major vehicle parameters to increase EV navigation accuracy without additional sensors. This is enabled by extracting multiple drive modes from the log data for analysis. The system provides 1) routes, 2) charge locations, 3) charging times, and 4) optimal vehicle speeds that guarantee the shortest travel time. Here we successfully validated the system using log data collected from an EV and Tesla's Supercharging map in the US and compared it with the commercially available navigation system, Tesla's trip planner, whose capabilities solely include charging time and routing.

EV (Electric vehicles) navigation↗

eXascale PRogramming Environment and System Software (XPRESS)

Exascale systems, with a thousand times the compute capacity of today’s leading edge petascale computers, are expected to emerge during the next decade. Their software systems will need to facilitate the exploitation of exceptional amounts of concurrency in applications, and ensure that jobs continue to run despite the occurrence of system failures and other kinds of hard and soft errors. Adapting computations at runtime to cope with changes in the execution environment, as well as to improve power and performance characteristics, is likely to become the norm. As a result, considerable innovation is required to develop system support to meet the needs of future computing platforms. The XPRESS project aims to develop and prototype a revolutionary software system for extreme-­scale computing for both exascale and strong­scaled problems. The XPRESS collaborative research project will advance the state-­of-­the-­art in high performance computing and enable exascale computing for current and future DOE mission-­critical applications and supporting systems. The goals of the XPRESS research project are to: A. enable exascale performance capability for DOE applications, both current and future, B. develop and deliver a practical computing system software X-­stack, OpenX, for future practical DOE exascale computing systems, and C. provide programming methods and environments for effective means of expressing application and system software for portable exascale system execution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Wallops Flight Facility Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative

While the dominant focus on short response missions has appropriately centered on the launch vehicle and spacecraft, often overlooked or afterthought phases of these missions have been launch site operations and the activities of launch range organizations. Throughout the history of organized spaceflight, launch ranges have been the bane of flight programs as the source of expense, schedule delays, and seemingly endless requirements. Launch Ranges provide three basic functions: (1) provide an appropriate geographical location to meet orbital other mission trajectory requirements, (2) provide project services such as processing facilities, launch complexes, tracking and data services, and expendable products, and (3) assure safety and property protection to participating personnel and third-parties. The challenge with which launch site authorities continuously struggle, is the inherent conflict arising from projects whose singular concern is execution of their mission, and the range s need to support numerous simultaneous customers. So, while tasks carried out by a launch range committed to a single mission pale in comparison to efforts of a launch vehicle or spacecraft provider and could normally be carried out in a matter of weeks, major launch sites have dozens of active projects separate sponsoring organizations. Accommodating the numerous tasks associated with each mission, when hardware failures, weather, maintenance requirements, and other factors constantly conspire against the range resource schedulers, make the launch range as significant an impediment to responsive missions as launch vehicles and their cargo. The obvious solution to the launch site challenge was implemented years ago when the Department of Defense simply established dedicated infrastructure and personnel to dedicated missions, namely an Inter Continental Ballistic Missile. This however proves to be prohibitively expensive for all but the most urgent of applications. So the challenge becomes how can a launch site provide acceptably responsive mission services to a particular customer without dedicating extensive resources and while continuing to serve other projects? NASA's Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) is pursuing solutions to exactly this challenge. NASA, in partnership with the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority, has initiated the Rapid Response Range Operations Initiative (R3Ops). R3Ops is a multi-phased effort to incrementally establish and demonstrate increasingly responsive launch operations, with an ultimate goal of providing ELV-class services in a maximum of 7-10 days from initial notification routinely, and shorter schedules possible with committed resources. This target will be pursued within the reality of simultaneous concurrent programs, and ideally, largely independent of specialized flight system configurations. WFF has recently completed Phase 1 of R3Ops, an in-depth collection (through extensive expert interviews) and software modeling of individual steps by various range disciplines. This modeling is now being used to identify existing inefficiencies in current procedures, to identify bottlenecks, and show interdependencies. Existing practices are being tracked to provide a baseline to benchmark against as new procedures are implemented. This paper will describe in detail the philosophies behind WFF's R3Ops, the data collected and modeled in Phase 1, and strategies for meeting responsive launch requirements in a multi-user range environment planned for subsequent phases of this initiative.

Underwood, Bruce E.↗

Implementation of J-A Methodology Elastic-Plastic Crack Instability Analysis Capability into the WARP-3D Code

Characterization of the near crack-tip stress/strain fields is the foundation of fracture mechanics. The description of the near tip stress field and the prediction of when fracture occurs is well established for brittle materials that exhibit linear elastic behavior. However, in ductile materials or conditions that violate linear elastic assumptions (Aluminum alloys, Al 2024-T3, Al 2024- T351 etc.), the elastic-plastic crack-tip stress fields are characterized by the Hutchison-Rice-Rosengren (HRR) field. The J-integral is commonly used to characterize amplitude of the HRR field under elastic-plastic conditions. The J-integral has been demonstrated for crack-tip fields that are under high constraint conditions (i.e., small-scale plasticity where the J-dominance is maintained). However, as the external load increases, yielding changes from small- to largescale plasticity and usually a loss of constraint (i.e., reduction in the triaxial stress field along the crack front). The loss of constraint leads to the deviation of the crack-tip stress fields from that given by the HRR field. Hence, the J-dominance will be gradually lost and additional parameter(s) are required to quantify the crack-tip stress fields and predict fracture behavior. The assessment objectives were to: 1) implement a two-parameter (i.e., J-A) fracture criterion into an elastic-plastic three-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis (FEA), 2) validate the implementation by comparison with the A parameter from literature data, 3) conduct material characterization tests to quantify the material behavior and provide fracture data for validation of the J-A fracture criteria, and (4) perform evaluations to establish if the J-A criteria can be used to predict fracture in a ductile metallic material (e.g., aluminum alloys). The A parameter in these criteria is the second parameter in a three-term elastic-plastic asymptotic expansion of the neartip stress behavior. A series of extensive FEAs were performed using WARP3D software package to obtain solutions for the A parameter for different specimen configurations. The methodology needed for the estimation of the A parameter in the asymptotic expansion was developed and implemented using Matlab®. A user material (UMAT) routine was used to model the material stress-strain response using a Ramberg-Osgood power law with a hardening exponent (n) and a material coefficient (alpha). This UMAT routine was successfully implemented in WARP3D software and validated through comparison with the experimental data. Three configurations were extracted from published results: 1) center cracked plate (CCP), 2) single edge-cracked plate (SECP), and 3) double edge-cracked plate (DECP). These configurations and four other configurations (three-hole tension (THT)), three-point bend (3PTB), three-hole compact tension (3PCT), and compact tension (CT)) were analyzed to verify the methodology that was developed and implemented into WARP3D. Solutions of the A parameter were obtained for remote tension loading conditions that started with small-scale yielding and continued into the large-scale plasticity regime. The results indicate that the methodology developed can be used to calculate the elastic-plastic J-A parameters for test specimens with a range of crack geometries, material strain hardening behaviors, and loading conditions. The J-A parameters were implemented as fracture criteria and used to predict the test results. For comparison, other fracture criteria were used to predict the same test results. Major findings include: The A constraint parameter A varies with specimen type and applied load thus accurate determination is crucial in predicting the failure load, and the A parameter is asymptotic as the failure load is approached, making an accurate determination difficult (i.e., small differences in the A parameter can cause large variations in failure load) for materials exhibiting elastic-plastic behavior. The failure predictions from J-A methodology were more accurate than the traditionally used KC and J methods, and have comparable scatter to that observed when using the crack-tip opening angle (CTOA) method. However, the J-A methodology requires considerable effort (expertise level and labor) to implement and to evaluate the A parameter for different specimen types and materials, or to apply this methodology to part-through crack (e.g., 3D problems) structural applications.

Hamm, Kenneth R., Jr.↗

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

Developing A Fully Implicit Compressible Flow Valve Model in RELAP-7 and Its Application in Short Term BWR Station Black-Out Analyses

This paper presents a set of dynamical models for SRV simulation and their implementation in the RELAP-7 code, which is a new reactor system analysis code being developed at INL. RELAP-7 is based on the MOOSE (the Multi-Physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework. The compressible flow SRV model covers three different sets of models: fully closed case, subsonic case, and choking case. The RELAP-7 is a fully implicit code and the preconditioned Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method is used to solve the discretized nonlinear problem. The JFNK method generally needs a good preconditioning scheme to be effective and efficient. There are different ways to precondition the JFNK method. In RELAP-7, two main options are used to obtain the preconditioning matrix: (1) FDP (Finite Difference Preconditioning) option which uses the default finite differencing method provided in the PETSc package. PETSc is the numerical solver software developed by Argonne National Laboratory and used by MOOSE as the numerical solution engine; (2) SMP (Single Matrix Preconditioning) option which requires code developers to provide approximate analytical Jacobian inputs for the important diagonal and off-diagonal terms. Due to the strong discontinuity in the residual vector space when the compressible flow valve model switches from one set of model to another, FDP option cannot guarantee convergence. Instead, accurate analytical Jacobain terms are provided for the compressible flow valve model. With the SMP option selected, the compressible flow valve model can be solved efficiently under different cases. The developed compressible flow valve model has been used for SRV component simulation in several simplified BWR SBO (Station Black-Out) simulations with RELAP-7. This paper only presents cases for short-term SBO in which all the safety systems fail to start and function properly when SBO occurs. Consequently, only the SRVs automatically open and close periodically to control the primary system pressure and discharge the high temperature and high pressure steam into the suppression pool. Although simplified, this case is quite similar to what happened in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1. Unit 1 had no RCIC system, while the isolation condenser system was believed to be non-functioning, or only available for a very short period of time during the accident. Therefore, the Unit 1 reactor core reached a fuel failure temperature only a few hours into the accident. Two short-term SBO cases will be compared: one with single SRV discharge line which represents all the SRV lines and another case with multi-group SRVs which represent each group of SRV line with different setting points.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Updating a PWR Simulator in Python

A nuclear reactor is a complicated system that is comprised of many systems and components. In order to fully model a reactor, several approximations and correlations must be used for a real-time simulation. In 1984 as part of a doctoral dissertation at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a FORTRAN 77 program was developed to simulate a four-loop, Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR). The program was later called PRISM and extended to include a comprehensive set of features accessible in a DOS-based user interface. This present work seeks to update the original PRISM program for cross platform deployment using the Python language. The goal of this present work is to update and improve a teaching tool for both students and reactor operators. Originally, PRISM was created as part of a PhD project in FORTRAN 77, but the code no longer works readily on modern operating systems. Python was chosen to rewrite the program because of the ease of use of the Python modules including Kivy as well as the portability of the program to various operating systems. This project aims to develop desktop and mobile versions of the software, allowing the user flexibility in choice of platform. This simulator is scheduled to be deployed in time for a live demonstration at the 2016 Annual ANS meeting. The project aims to produce a reactor simulator that will showcase the dynamics of a PWR system in real-time under various conditions. Some potential scenarios include startup conditions, scram operations, or failure conditions such as a break in a coolant leg. The user will be able to induce various failure scenarios and the program will simulate how the reactor will behave. The simulation will include a suite of monitoring functions that will allow automatic systems to attempt to adapt to the changing conditions, e.g., control rod movement. This program will provide an educational resource for anyone learning about nuclear reactor kinetics or dynamics of a reactor system. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An Investigation of Catastrophic Failure in Solid-State Lamps Exposed to Harsh Environment Operational Conditions

Today’s lighting technology is steadily becoming more energy efficient and less toxic to the environment since the passing of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) [1]. EISA has mandated a higher energy efficiency standard for lighting products and the phase out of the common incandescent lamp. This has led lighting manufacturers to pursue solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies for consumer lighting applications. However, two major roadblocks are hindering the transition process to SSL lamps: cost and quality. In order to cut cost, manufactures are moving towards cheaper packaging materials and a variety of package architecture construction techniques which may potentially erode the quality of the lamp and reduce its survivability in everyday applications. Typically, SSL lamps are given product lifetimes of over twenty years based off of the IES TM-21-11 lighting standard which does not include moisture effects or large operational temperatures [2]. A group of recently released off-the-shelf lamps have undergone a steady-state temperature humidity bias life test of 85°C/85%RH (85/85) to investigate the reliability in harsh environment applications. The lack of accelerated test methods for lamps to assess reliability prior to introduction into the marketplace does not exist in literature. There is a need for SSL physics based models for the assessment and prediction of a lamp’s lifetime which is being spearheaded by the DOE [3]. In order to be fully accepted in the marketplace, SSL lamps must be able to perform similarly to incandescent lamps in these environments, as well as live up to the lifetime claims of manufacturers. A lamp’s package architecture must be designed with performance factors in mind, as well as address some of the known and published package related failure mechanisms, such as carbonization of the encapsulant material, delamination, encapsulant yellowing, lens cracking, and phosphor thermal quenching [4]. Each failure mechanism produces the similar failure mode of lumen degradation predominately due to two contributing factors: high junction temperature and moisture ingress. The current state-of-the-art has focused on individual areas of the lamp, such as the LED chip, substrate material, electrical driver design and thermal management techniques. [5] – [16] Looking at the lamp as a whole is a novel approach and has not been seen before in literature. This work followed the JEDEC standard JESD22-A101C of 85/85 with a one hour interval of applied voltage followed by a one hour interval of no applied voltage [17]. This test was performed continuously for each SSL lamp until it became nonoperational, i.e. did not turn on. Periodically, photometric measurements were taken following the IES LM-79-08 standard at room temperature using an integrating sphere, a spectrometer, and lighting software. The overall health of the SSL lamps was assed using the relative luminous flux (RLF), correlated color temperature (CCT) and the color difference (Δu'v') using the Euclidean distance of the CIE 1976 color space coordinates. Finally, a Weibull analysis was completed to compare the characteristic lifetime of the SSL lamp to the actual rated lifetime. An important result from this work shows that the rated lifetime does not come close to the actual lifetime when the SSL lamps are used in a harsh humid environment which is fairly common in outdoor applications across the U.S. Also, the photometric results are presented for the entire lifetime of each SSL lamp under test.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NONPARAMETRIC EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION THROUGH DECONVOLUTION IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

The advent of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and availability of open source software made full hierarchical Bayesian analysis tractable and a popular choice in parameter estimation for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, despite its theoretical attractiveness, the hierarchical Bayesian analysis is not without its problems. Two of the most prominent practical difficulties in applying hierarchical Bayes analysis in practice to analyze source-to-source variability, for example, is its sensitivity to the selection of the first-stage prior and dependence of the rate of convergence on the selection of the first-stage prior. The first-stage prior in hierarchical Bayesian analysis is usually assumed having a parametric form, often conjugate to the likelihood function (aleatory model). To facilitate convergence for hierarchical Bayes models, the first-stage prior is frequently set through empirical Bayes estimate, which can use available historical data to find the parameters of the first-stage prior. The paper discusses a new nonparametric empirical Bayes estimation and compare it to several well-known parametric estimates such as method of moments and maximum likelihood. The new nonparametric technique exploits the prior predictive distribution as integral equation and proceeds to solve it with respect to prior assuming the sampling data distribution and aleatory model are available. The discussion covers topics such as selection of aleatory model for future data, selection of regularization parameter, and density estimation for historical data. For comparison, the paper is using contrived as well as real-world data from utilities. Utilities data represent failure data with Poisson distribution used for aleatory model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗