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At least 577 records · Page 32

Sensitivity Analysis of Cf-252 (sf) Neutron and Gamma Observables in CGMF

CGMF is a Monte Carlo code that simulates the decay of primary fission fragments by emission of neutrons and gamma rays, according to the Hauser-Feshbach equations. As the CGMF code was recently integrated into the MCNP6.2 transport code, great emphasis has been placed on providing optimal parameters to CGMF such that many different observables are accurately represented. Of these observables, the prompt neutron spectrum, prompt neutron multiplicity, prompt gamma spectrum, and prompt gamma multiplicity are crucial for accurate transport simulations of criticality and nonproliferation applications. This contribution to the ongoing efforts to improve CGMF presents a study of the sensitivity of various neutron and gamma observables to several input parameters for Californium-252 spontaneous fission. Among the most influential parameters are those that affect the input yield distributions in fragment mass and total kinetic energy (TKE). A new scheme for representing Y(A,TKE) was implemented in CGMF using three fission modes, S1, S2 and SL. The sensitivity profiles were calculated for 17 total parameters, which show that the neutron multiplicity distribution is strongly affected by the TKE distribution of the fragments. The total excitation energy (TXE) of the fragments is shared according to a parameter RT, which is defined as the ratio of the light to heavy initial temperatures. The sensitivity profile of the neutron multiplicity shows a second order effect of RT on the mean neutron multiplicity. A final sensitivity profile was produced for the parameter alpha, which affects the spin of the fragments. Higher values of alpha lead to higher fragment spins, which inhibit the emission of neutrons. Understanding the sensitivity of the prompt neutron and gamma observables to the many CGMF input parameters provides a platform for the optimization of these parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Convergence Study in Global Sensitivity Analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a common method used to randomly sample a range of scenarios. The associated error follows a predictable rate of convergence of $1/\sqrt{N}$, such that quadrupling the sample size halves the error. This method is often employed in performing global sensitivity analysis which computes sensitivity indices, measuring fractional contributions of uncertain model inputs to the total output variance. In this study, several models are used to observe the rate of decay in the MC error in the estimation of the conditional variance, the total variance in the output, and the global sensitivity indices. The purpose is to examine the rate of convergence of the error in existing specialized, albeit MC-based, sampling methods for estimation of the sensitivity indices. It was found that the conditional variances and sensitivity indices all follow the $1/\sqrt{N}$ convergence rate. Future work will test the convergence of observables from more complex models such as ignition time in combustion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

(U) Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability for Source Nuclide Density Sensitivities

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first- and second-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems. Unfortunately, the PERT capability does not yet work with point-detector (F5) or pulse-height (F8) tallies. Also, the second-order Taylor series term lacks the cross terms that would allow the calculation of mixed sensitivities. Finally, the PERT capability does not compute any sensitivities involving the source in a fixed-source problem. When neutrons or gamma rays are emitted due to radioactive decay, the source rate density depends intrinsically on the nuclide densities in the source material. When the PERT capability in MCNP6 is used to compute sensitivities of a response to nuclide and material densities, those sensitivities do not include the effect of the source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Hanford Site Composite Analysis Special Analysis: Inventory and Solid Waste Release Modeling for the LLBG Sensitivity Case - UCAQ-22-01 Inventory Discrepancies for 218-E-12B, 218-W-3A, and 218-W-3AE in the Hanford Site Composite Analysis

This environmental calculation file (ECF) documents the methodologies, assumptions, and results of four sensitivity analyses that reevaluate the representativeness of solid-waste radionuclide inventory and release rate from three solid waste sites included in the recently completed Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) (DOE-RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020), Rev. 1) (hereinafter called the CA Update). Specifically, this ECF reevaluates the representativeness of the base case inventory and radionuclide waste release rates from three solid waste sites (i.e., 218-E-12B, 218-W-3A, and 218-W-3AE) and two radionuclides (i.e., carbon-14 [C-14] and technetium-99 [Tc-99]). These three waste sites and two radionuclides were identified as being the most significant contributors to groundwater contamination and dose in the CA Update for the Inner Area boundary at times periods after the compliance period. This ECF first evaluates the representativeness of the C-14 and Tc-99 inventory and second, radionuclide release rates for the three waste sites1. If the inventory and release rates assumed in the CA Update are determined to be not representative, as hypothesized in the CA Update, then this ECF evaluates the impact of more representative inventories and release rates on the transfer of radionuclides to the vadose zone. The four analyses described in this ECF are as follows: 1) 218-E-12B C-14 Inventory and Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the C-14 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-E-12B waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted C-14 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 2) 218-W-3A C-14 Inventory and Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the C-14 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-W-3A waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted C-14 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 3) 218-W-3AE Tc-99 Release Rate Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the Tc-99 inventory and associated waste release rate from the 218-W-3AE waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the inventory and associated waste release are more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted Tc-99 release rate and compare the results to the results presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52); 4) 218-W-3AE Tc-99 Release Footprint Sensitivity Case – Determine the representativeness of the Tc-99 waste area footprint for the 218-W-3AE waste site assumed in the CA Update. If the footprint of the waste is more appropriately characterized as being different from the assumptions in the CA Update, then update the predicted Tc-99 release rate and compare the results to the result presented in the CA Update (DOE/RL-2019-52).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PDV Sensitivity [Slides]

The concept of PDV sensitive is not new. But we tend not to discuss sensitivity in a rigorous, quantified way. That should change. Indeed there is a natural definition, which is just the energy of light from the target within the analysis window that gives a SNR of 10 in the frequency domain. Systems designers, diagnostic engineers, and operators should use the language of sensitivity: (1) Absolute sensitivity: nW * ns; (2) Launch power: mW or dBm; (3) Relative surface return: dB; (4) Relative sensitivity: dB * ns. This will help us design better systems, choose the correct system for the job, maintain our systems, and tune our systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensitive Measures of Soil Health Reveal Carbon Stability Across a Management Intensity and Plant Biodiversity Gradient

Soil carbon (C) is a major driver of soil health, yet little is known regarding how sensitive measures of soil C shift temporally within a single growing season in response to short-term weather perturbations. Our study aimed to i) Examine how long-term management impacts soil C cycling and stability across a management intensity and plant biodiversity gradient and ii) Assess how sensitive soil health indicators change temporally over the course of a single growing season in response to recent weather patterns. Here we quantify a variety of sensitive soil C measures at four time points across the 2021 growing season at the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station’s Long Term Ecological Research Trial (LTER) located in southwest Michigan, USA. The eight systems sampled included four annual soybean ( Glycine max ) systems that ranged in management intensity (conventional, no-till, reduced input, and biologically-based), two perennial biofuel cropping systems (switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) and hybrid poplars ( Populus nigra x P.maximowiczii )), and two unmanaged systems (early successional system and a mown but never tilled grassland). We found that unmanaged systems with increased perenniality enhanced mineralizable C (Min C) and permanganate oxidizable C (POXC) values. Additionally, all soil health indicators were found to be sensitive to changes in short-term weather perturbations over the course of the growing season. The implications of this study are threefold. First, this study assess indicators of labile and stable C pools over the course of the growing season and reflects the stability of soil C in different systems. Second, POXC, Min C, and ß-glucosidase (GLU) activity are sensitive soil health indicators that fluctuate temporally, which means that these soil health indicators could help elucidate the impact that weather patterns have on soil C dynamics. Lastly, for effective monitoring of soil C, sampling time and frequency should be considered for a comprehensive understanding of soil C cycling within a system.

Martin, Tvisha↗

Optimizing Magnetic Force Microscopy Resolution and Sensitivity to Visualize Nanoscale Magnetic Domains

Magnetic force microscopy (MFM) enables mapping local magnetic fields across a sample surface with nanoscale resolution. To perform MFM, an atomic force microscopy (AFM) probe whose tip has been magnetized vertically (i.e., perpendicular to the probe cantilever) is oscillated at a fixed height above the sample surface. The resultant shifts in the oscillation phase or frequency, which are proportional to the magnitude and sign of the vertical magnetic force gradient at each pixel location, are then tracked and mapped. Although the spatial resolution and sensitivity of the technique increases with decreasing lift height above the surface, this seemingly straightforward path to improved MFM images is complicated by considerations such as minimizing topographical artifacts due to shorter range van der Waals forces, increasing the oscillation amplitude to further improve sensitivity, and the presence of surface contaminants (in particular water due to humidity under ambient conditions). In addition, due to the orientation of the probe's magnetic dipole moment, MFM is intrinsically more sensitive to samples with an out-of-plane magnetization vector. Here, high-resolution topographical and magnetic phase images of single and bicomponent nanomagnet artificial spin-ice (ASI) arrays obtained in an inert (argon) atmosphere glovebox with <0.1 ppm O 2 and H 2 O are reported. Further, optimization of lift height and drive amplitude for high resolution and sensitivity while simultaneously avoiding the introduction of topographical artifacts is discussed, and detection of the stray magnetic fields emanating from either end of the nanoscale bar magnets (~250 nm long and <100 nm wide) aligned in the plane of the ASI sample surface is shown. Likewise, using the example of a Ni-Mn-Ga magnetic shape memory alloy (MSMA), MFM is demonstrated in an inert atmosphere with magnetic phase sensitivity capable of resolving a series of adjacent magnetic domains each ~200 nm wide.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The sensitivity of core-collapse supernovae to nuclear electron capture

A weak-rate library aimed at investigating the sensitivity of astrophysical environments to variations of electron-capture rates on medium-heavy nuclei has been developed. With this library, the sensitivity of the core-collapse and early post-bounce phases of core-collapse supernovae to nuclear electron capture is examined. The rates are adjusted by factors consistent with uncertainties indicated by comparing theoretical rates to those deduced from charge-exchange and β-decay measurements. To ensure a model-independent assessment, sensitivity studies across a comprehensive set of progenitors and equations of state are performed. We find a +16/−4% range in the mass of the inner core at shock formation and a ±20% range of peak ν{sub e} luminosity during the deleptonization burst. These ranges are five times as large as those seen from a separate progenitor study, where we evaluate the sensitivity of these parameters to 32 presupernova models. Additionally, the simulations are found to be more sensitive to a reduction in electron-capture rates than an enhancement, and specifically to the reduction in rates for neutron-rich nuclei near the N = 50 closed neutron shell. As measurements for medium-heavy (A>65) and neutron-rich nuclei are sparse, and because accurate theoretical models that account for nuclear structure considerations of individual nuclei are not readily available, rates for these nuclei may be overestimated. If more accurate estimates confirm this, results from this study indicate that significant changes to the core-collapse trajectory are expected. For this reason, experimental and theoretical efforts should focus on this region of the nuclear chart.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying uncertainty from aerosol and atmospheric parameters and their impact on climate sensitivity

Abstract. Climate sensitivity in Earth system models (ESMs) is an emergentproperty that is affected by structural (missing or inaccurate model physics)and parametric (variations in model parameters) uncertainty. This workprovides the first quantitative assessment of the role of compensationbetween uncertainties in aerosol forcing and atmospheric parameters, andtheir impact on the climate sensitivity of the Community Atmosphere Model,Version 4 (CAM4). Running the model with prescribed ocean and ice conditions,we perturb four parameters related to sulfate and black carbon aerosolradiative forcing and distribution, as well as five atmospheric parametersrelated to clouds, convection, and radiative flux. In this experimental setupwhere aerosols do not affect the properties of clouds, the atmosphericparameters explain the majority of variance in climate sensitivity, with twoparameters being the most important: one controlling low cloud amount, andone controlling the timescale for deep convection. Although the aerosolparameters strongly affect aerosol optical depth, their impacts on climatesensitivity are substantially weaker than the impacts of the atmosphericparameters, but this result may depend on whether aerosol–cloud interactionsare simulated. Based on comparisons to inter-model spread of other ESMs, weconclude that structural uncertainties in this configuration of CAM4 likelycontribute 3 times more to uncertainty in climate sensitivity thanparametric uncertainties. We provide several parameter sets that couldprovide plausible (measured by a skill score) configurations of CAM4, butwith different sulfate aerosol radiative forcing, black carbon radiativeforcing, and climate sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact sensitivity of materials in contact with liquid and gaseous oxygen at high pressure

As a result of the Apollo 13 incident, increased emphasis is being placed on materials compatibility in a high pressure GOX environment. It is known that in addition to impact sensitivity of materials, approximately adiabatic compression conditions can contrive to induce materials reactivity. Test runs at high pressure using the ABMA tester indicate the following: (1) The materials used in the tests showed an inverse relationship between thickness and impact sensitivity. (2) Several materials tested exhibited greater impact sensitivity in GOX than in LOX. (3) The impact sensitivity of the materials tested in GOX, at the pressures tested, showed enhanced impact sensitivity with higher pressure. (4) The rank ordering of the materials tested in LOX up to 1000 psia is the same as the rank ordering resulting from tests in LOX at 14.7 psia.

Schwinghamer, R. J.↗

Sensitivity and comparison evaluation of Saturn 5 liquid penetrants

Results of a sensitivity and comparison evaluation performed on six liquid penetrants that were used on the Saturn 5 vehicle and other space hardware to detect surface discontinuities are described. The relationship between penetrant materials and crack definition capabilities, the optimum penetrant materials evaluation method, and the optimum measurement methods for crack dimensions were investigated. A unique method of precise developer thickness control was envolved, utilizing clear radiographic film and a densitometer. The method of evaluation included five aluminum alloy, 2219-T87, specimens that were heated and then quenched in cold water to produce cracks. The six penetrants were then applied, one at a time, and the crack indications were counted and recorded for each penetrant for comparison purposes. Measurements were made by determining the visual crack indications per linear inch and then sectioning the specimens for a metallographic count of the cracks present. This method provided a numerical approach for assigning a sensitivity index number to the penetrants. Of the six penetrants evaluated, two were not satisfactory (one was not sufficiently sensitive and the other was to sensitive, giving false indications). The other four were satisfactory with approximately the same sensitivity in the range of 78 to 80.5 percent of total cracks detected.

Jones, G. H.↗

Optimum sensitivity derivatives of objective functions in nonlinear programming

The feasibility of eliminating second derivatives from the input of optimum sensitivity analyses of optimization problems is demonstrated. This elimination restricts the sensitivity analysis to the first-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function. It is also shown that when a complete first-order sensitivity analysis is performed, second-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function are available at little additional cost. An expression is derived whose application to linear programming is presented.

Barthelemy, J.-F. M.↗

Effect of confinement in small space flight size cages on insulin sensitivity of exercise-trained rats

The effect of confinement in small cages (simulating the size to be used in future space Shuttle missions) on insulin sensitivity was studied in rats having an increased insulin sensitivity due to exercise training prior to confinement. Oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) were given to both control and exercise-trained rats before and after placement in the small cages for 7 days. The insulin resistance was assessed by the product of the area of the insulin and glucose curves of the OGTT (IG index). Results show that the values obtained before confinement were one-half as high in exercise-trained rats as those in control rats, reflecting an increased sensitivity to insulin with exercise training. After 7 days confinement, the IG index was found to be not significantly different from initial values for both control and exercise-trained rats. These findings suggest that increased insulin sensitivity in exercise-trained rats persists 7 days after cessation of running activity. The data also indicate that exercise training, before flight, may be beneficial in minimizing the loss of insulin sensitivity expected with decreased use of gravity dependent muscles during exposure to hypogravity in space flight.

Mondon, C. E.↗

An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation using an efficient method for approximating sensitivities

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed primarily for multivariable dynamic systems. The algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). The method determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared with integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations or using a finite-difference method. Different surface-fitting methods are discussed and demonstrated. Aircraft estimation problems are solved by using both simulated and real-flight data to compare MNRES with commonly used methods; in these solutions MNRES is found to be equally accurate and substantially faster. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations, thus producing a more generally applicable algorithm.

Murphy, P. C.↗

Parameter sensitivity in the dynamics of rotor-bearing systems

When designing a rotor system it is frequently desirable to have at hand a set of design sensitivity coefficients which quantitatively predict a change in specific system characteristics to changes in design parameters. This paper presents eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients for the damped natural frequencies of whirl of general linear rotor system modelled by finite element discretization. In addition, a simple and direct method for calculation of the damped critical speeds is presented, which utilizes the eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to the spin speed. It is shown that the combination of design parameter and spin speed whirl frequency sensitivity coefficients may be used to also evaluate the damped critical speed sensitivity coefficients.

Rajan, M.↗

Nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and corrections in system identification

The evaluation of sensitivity coefficients which are the changes in the eigencharacteristics with respect to changes in the structural parameters is important in the identification of structural systems. In such studies the commonly used linearized sensitivity coefficients for system identification have occasionally resulted in poor convergence or even divergence during the iteration process to update analytical models for better correlation with the test data. Nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and nonlinear correction terms, usually eliminated during the linearization process, have been developed to evaluate sensitivity coefficients of linear systems. Application to computer simulated example problems indicates a more rapid and stable convergence of the iteration processes to update the analytical model for the improvement of the correlation with test data. The successful application of combining the nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and nonlinear correction terms with the Multiple Boundary Condition Tests enhances the ability to validate large space structures by ground tests.

Kuo, C. P.↗

Shape design sensitivity analysis and optimization of three dimensional elastic solids using geometric modeling and automatic regridding

An automatic regridding method and a three dimensional shape design parameterization technique were constructed and integrated into a unified theory of shape design sensitivity analysis. An algorithm was developed for general shape design sensitivity analysis of three dimensional eleastic solids. Numerical implementation of this shape design sensitivity analysis method was carried out using the finite element code ANSYS. The unified theory of shape design sensitivity analysis uses the material derivative of continuum mechanics with a design velocity field that represents shape change effects over the structural design. Automatic regridding methods were developed by generating a domain velocity field with boundary displacement method. Shape design parameterization for three dimensional surface design problems was illustrated using a Bezier surface with boundary perturbations that depend linearly on the perturbation of design parameters. A linearization method of optimization, LINRM, was used to obtain optimum shapes. Three examples from different engineering disciplines were investigated to demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of this shape design sensitivity analysis method.

Yao, Tse-Min↗

Design sensitivity analysis using EAL. Part 2: Shape design parameters

A numerical implementation of shape design sensitivity analysis of built-up structures is presented, using the versatility and convenience of an existing finite element structural analysis code and its data base management system. This report is a continuation of a previous report on conventional design parameters. The finite element code used in the implementation presented is the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL), which is based on a hybrid analysis method. It has been shown that shape design sensitivity computations can be carried out using the database management system of EAL, without writing a separate program and a separate data base. The material derivative concept of continuum mechanics and an adjoint variable method of design sensitivity analysis are used to derive shape design sensitivity information of structural performances. A domain method of shape design sensitivity analysis and a design component method are used. Displacement and stress functionals are considered as performance criteria.

Dopker, B.↗