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NASA NTRS2020

Possible Climate Histories of Venus Type Worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2 dominated atmosphere. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photodissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape & left-over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history and had a short period of habitability before increasing solar insolation through time drove it into a runaway greenhouse. However, results from 2016 showed that if Venus remains in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime (as seen in exoplanet related climate studies) its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases. But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain which scenario is more probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exoVenus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ for ~3 billion years within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ and hence encourage the exoplanet communit as possible habitable environments.

Way, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Participatory Technology Assessment for Mars Mission Planning: Public Values and Rationales

Public support and interest are needed to design an ambitious human spaceflight program. However, it is difficult to understand what the public values and would support. And it is even more challenging and rare to consider public views prior to actually developing a mission. Participatory technology assessment (pTA) is a method that aims to understand public preferences and values in order to inform upstream government decision-making. We assess a recently completed experiment in pTA, the "Informing NASA's Asteroid Initiative" project. Through a cooperative agreement with NASA, the Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology (ECAST) network conducted a pTA-based forum on NASA's Asteroid Initiative and the Journey to Mars. ECAST organized two citizen forums in Phoenix, Arizona and Boston, Massachusetts in November 2014, with a total of 183 citizens selected so as to minimize self-selection biases. This paper focuses on the "Journey to Mars" session, which had the primary goal of soliciting citizen perceptions about different Mars exploration scenarios and mission planning approaches. Citizens were given background information about three potential Mars exploration scenarios that NASA could carry out: 1) Crewed orbital mission to direct robots on the surface of Mars; 2) Short exploratory crewed mission to the surface of Mars; and 3) establishing a permanent settlement. Citizens then engaged in structured facilitated discussions about their preferences among the scenarios and NASA's mission planning approach. Using a grounded theory coding approach, we analyzed participants' written rationales and dialogue about Mars exploration. In general, participants did not show a strong preference for any particular mission profile, but there was a slight preference for the crewed orbital robotics scenario. Participants who supported this approach saw it as the quickest, safest, and least costly road to a successful mission. However, many participants were interested in seeing "boots on the ground," as they believed this would propel scientific advancement, increase excitement about space exploration, and make humans a "two-planet species."

Bertrand, Pierre↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Climates of Earth’s next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate & Insolation

We investigate two possible deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3-D GCM, 200 and 250 million years into the future when the next supercontinent phase is expected to take place. We use knowledge of the evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, and rotation rate over this time period. In one scenario, a supercontinent forms at low latitudes. In the other scenario it forms at high northerly latitudes with an Antarctic subcontinent remaining at the south pole. The climates differences between these two scenarios are dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching 4 degrees. The fractional habitability (where mean surface temperatures are between 0<T<100C year round) on land surfaces (as opposed to the ocean) is shown to differ up to 40\% between the two simulations. We believe these demonstrate that the community needs to consider alternative boundary conditions when simulating Earth-like exoplanetary climates. This work has recently been submitted to GRL and can be accessed at the ESSOAr repository.

Supercontinent↗

NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Climates of Earth's Next Supercontinent: Effects of Tectonics, Rotation Rate, & Insolation

We investigate two possible deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3-D GCM, 200 and 250 million years into the future when the next supercontinent phase is expect to take place. We use knowledge of the evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, and rotation rate over this time period. In one scenario, a supercontinent forms at low latitudes. In the other scenario it forms at high northerly latitudes with an Antarctic subcontinent remaining at the south pole. The climates differences between these two scenarios are dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching 4 degrees. The fractional habitability (where mean surface temperatures are between 0<T<100C year round) on land surfaces (as opposed to the ocean) is shown to differ up to 40% between the two simulations. We believe these demonstrate that the community needs to consider alternative boundary conditions when simulating Earth-like exoplanetary climates.

tectonics↗

NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Possible climate histories of Venus type worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2dominated atmosphere[1]. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photo-dissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape and the left over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus [2] would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history. As long as Venus remained in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime [3,4] its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases [5].But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain whether both scenarios are equally probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exo-Venus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ [6] and hence encourage the exoplanet community to seek out these worlds as possible habitable environments.

Venus’ climate evolution↗

NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Transfers Between Earth-Moon Halo Orbits via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, a multi-objective deep reinforcement learning algorithm, is used to examine the design space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat transferring between two libration point orbits in the Earth-Moon system. Using Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, multiple policies are simultaneously and efficiently trained on three distinct trajectory design scenarios. Each policy is trained to create a unique control scheme based on the trajectory design scenario and assigned reward function: a unique combination of weights scaling competing objectives that guide the spacecraft to the target mission orbit, incentivize faster flight times, and penalize propellant mass usage. Then, the policies are evaluated on the same set of perturbed initial conditions in each scenario to generate the propellant mass usages, flight times, and state discontinuities from a reference trajectory for each control scheme. This solution space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat is used to examine the multi-objective trade space for the trajectory design scenario. By autonomously constructing the solution space, insights into the required propellant mass, flight time, and transfer geometry are rapidly achieved.

Christopher J Sullivan↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HAT m:N Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA)

This Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) study was designed to understand the capability of the m:N Tactical Operator (TO) interfaces developed by the Human-Autonomy Teaming Laboratory at NASA Ames to support operators responsible for simplified pilot operations of 100 independently operated small UAS (sUAS) in a constrained geographic area. The m:N sUAS TO interface includes a central Tactical Situation Display (TSD) digital map with moving icons reflecting the sUAS location and planned flight route. The interface also has two side panels. The left panel includes a tabular list of UAS assets and mission tasking, a list of recently viewed assets, and a list of events and alerts. The right panel includes a tabular list of UAS assets and their associated telemetry, text-based chat communication window, and a tabbed checklist window. This CTA was adapted from the incident-based applied cognitive task analysis (Militello & Hutton, 1998) and included demographics questions, scenario-based simulations, a task diagram and knowledge audit methods. In addition to examining the support provided by this m:N sUAS TO interface, this CTA study, conducted with aviation subject matter experts in analogous roles to the future tactical operator, was designed to illuminate and project likely cognitive requirements of the tactical operator. Interviewees participated in two scenario-based simulations using the m:N sUAS TO interfaces. In the first simulation, the interviewees supervised 12 sUAS operating in downtown San Diego, California transiting to and from a central sUAS Hive, restaurant locations, and customer drop off locations. Interviewees were asked to react to a UAS Volume Reservation (UVR) event with a two-phase impact on food delivery operations. In the second scenario, the interviewees supervised 100 sUAS operating in the same airspace and with the same mission. Interviewees used the interfaces to recognize and react to two sUAS air vehicle problems. After each scenario, we asked the interviewees a semi-structured list of questions to elicit their reflections about using the interfaces. Interviewees were confident in their ability to respond to two off-nominal situations in each simulation. Interviewees felt that, given high levels of automation on the sUAS, they would be able to manage the events without requiring additional support or handing off the sUAS to a colleague or supervisor in both the n=12 or n=100 sUAS settings. In the n=12 sUAS condition, interviewees used the center map to understand the asset location and progress along with mission tasking. An additional display window, Asset Telemetry, helped interviewees understand battery state and sUAS altitude. When the number of sUAS increased, interviewees altered their behavior. Rather than maintaining awareness of individual assets, interviewees appeared to become more reactive, managing exceptions. Interviewees reported that they spent less time looking at the nominal aircraft, and focused their attention primarily on the off-nominal aircraft. In addition, in the second simulation with n=100 sUAS, interviewees reported that they relied more on the side panels (Mission Timeline and Asset Telemetry) to gather information.

human-autonomy teaming↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Effects of Surface Fossil Magnetic Fields on Massive Star Evolution – III. the Case of τ Sco

τ Sco, a well-studied magnetic B-type star in the Upper Sco association, has a number of surprising characteristics. It rotates very slowly and shows nitrogen excess. Its surface magnetic field is much more complex than a purely dipolar configuration which is unusual for a magnetic massive star. We employ the CMFGEN radiative transfer code to determine the fundamental parameters and surface CNO and helium abundances. Then, we employ MESA and GENEC stellar evolution models accounting for the effects of surface magnetic fields. To reconcile τ Sco’s properties with single-star models, an increase is necessary in the efficiency of rotational mixing by a factor of 3–10 and in the efficiency of magnetic braking by a factor of 10. The spin-down could be explained by assuming a magnetic field decay scenario. However, the simultaneous chemical enrichment challenges the single-star scenario. Previous works indeed suggested a stellar merger origin for τ Sco. However, the merger scenario also faces similar challenges as our magnetic single-star models to explain τ Sco’s simultaneous slow rotation and nitrogen excess. In conclusion, the single-star channel seems less likely and versatile to explain these discrepancies, while the merger scenario and other potential binary-evolution channels still require further assessment as to whether they may self-consistently explain the observables of τ Sco.

stars: evolution↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cluster Difference Imaging Photometric Survey. II. TOI 837: A Young Validated Planet in IC 2602

We report the discovery of TOI 837b and its validation as a transiting planet. We characterize the system using data from the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission, the ESA Gaia mission, ground-based photometry from El Sauce and ASTEP400, and spectroscopy from CHIRON, FEROS, and Veloce. We find that TOI 837 is a T = 9.9 mag G0/F9 dwarf in the southern open cluster IC 2602. The star and planet are therefore 35(sup +11)(sub -5) million years old. Combining the transit photometry with a prior on the stellar parameters derived from the cluster color–magnitude diagram, we find that the planet has an orbital period of 8.3 days and is slightly smaller than Jupiter (R(sub p) = 0.77(sup + 0.09)(sub -0.07) R(sub Jup)). From radial velocity monitoring, we limit M(sub p) sin i to less than 1.20 M(sub Jup) (3σ). The transits either graze or nearly graze the stellar limb. Grazing transits are a cause for concern, as they are often indicative of astrophysical false-positive scenarios. Our follow-up data show that such scenarios are unlikely. Our combined multicolor photometry, high-resolution imaging, and radial velocities rule out hierarchical eclipsing binary scenarios. Background eclipsing binary scenarios, though limited by speckle imaging, remain a 0.2% possibility. TOI 837b is therefore a validated adolescent exoplanet. The planetary nature of the system can be confirmed or refuted through observations of the stellar obliquity and the planetary mass. Such observations may also improve our understanding of how the physical and orbital properties of exoplanets change in time.

Exoplanets↗

NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Effects of Surface Fossil Magnetic Fields on Massive Star Evolution - III. The Case of τSco

τSco, a well-studied magnetic B-type star in the Upper Sco association, has a number of surprising characteristics. It rotates very slowly and shows nitrogen excess. Its surface magnetic field is much more complex than a purely dipolar configuration which is unusual for a magnetic massive star. We employ the CMFGEN radiative transfer code to determine the fundamental parameters and surface CNO and helium abundances. Then, we employ MESA and GENEC stellar evolution models accounting for the effects of surface magnetic fields. To reconcileτSco’s properties with single-star models, an increase is necessary in the efficiency of rotational mixing by a factor of 3–10 and in the efficiency of magnetic braking by a factor of 10. The spin-down could be explained by assuming a magnetic field decay scenario. However, the simultaneous chemical enrichment challenges the single-star scenario. Previous works indeed suggested a stellar merger origin forτSco. However, the merger scenario also faces similar challenges as our magnetic single-star models to explainτSco’s simultaneous slow rotation and nitrogen excess. In conclusion, the single-star channel seems less likely and versatile to explain these discrepancies, while the merger scenario and other potential binary-evolution channels still require further assessment as to whether they may self-consistently explain the observables of τSco.

Z Keszthelyi↗

NASA NTRS2021

Simulation of Radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem Global Model: Emissions, Seasonality, and Convective Transport

Radon-222 (Rn-222) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surfaces and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate Rn-222 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to improve our understanding of Rn-222 emissions and surface concentration seasonality and characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS-FP). We evaluate four global Rn-222 emission scenarios by comparing model results with observations at 51 surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with surface observations globally (68.9 % of data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of winter surface Rn-222 concentrations at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and high latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of Rn-222 emission fluxes (1 atom cm−2 s−1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global Rn-222 emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and demonstrate its potential to improve simulated surface Rn-222 concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors in determining Rn-222 emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface Rn-222 concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional Rn-222 emissions. We therefore propose a conservative upscaling factor of 1.2 for Rn-222 emission fluxes in China, which was also constrained by observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (a progeny of Rn-222). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with observations in Europe and North America (> 80 % of data within a factor of 2) and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70 %). Further constraints on Rn-222 emissions would require additional concentration and emission flux observations in the central United States, Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed Rn-222 vertical profiles in northern midlatitude summer and from three short-term airborne campaigns. While simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of Rn-222 concentrations in the lower troposphere (0–4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared with GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of Rn-222, which is partially compensated for by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of Rn-222 concentrations between the two simulations. This has important implications for using chemical transport models to interpret the transport of other trace species when these GEOS products are used as driving meteorology.

Bo Zhang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploring Transfers Between Earth-Moon Halo Orbits via Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimization, a multi-objective deep reinforcement learning algorithm, is used to examine the design space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat transferring between two libration point orbits in the Earth- Moon system. Using Multi-Reward Proximal Policy Optimiza- tion, multiple policies are simultaneously and efficiently trained on three distinct trajectory design scenarios. Each policy is trained to create a unique control scheme based on the trajectory design scenario and assigned reward function: a unique combination of weights scaling competing objectives that guide the spacecraft to the target mission orbit, incentivize faster flight times, and penalize propellant mass usage. Then, the policies are evaluated on the same set of perturbed initial conditions in each scenario to generate the propellant mass usages, flight times, and state discontinuities from a reference trajectory for each control scheme. This solution space of low-thrust trajectories for a SmallSat is used to examine the multi-objective trade space for the trajectory design scenario. By autonomously constructing the solution space, insights into the required propellant mass, flight time, and transfer geometry are rapidly achieved.

Mashiku, Alinda K.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Impact on Wildfire Danger Over the Mediterranean: the Case of Greece

Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.

Forest fires↗