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A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.
This article describes an error covariance analysis based on a Mars Observer mission scenario; the study was performed to establish the navigation performance that can potentially be achieved in a demonstration of precision two-way X-band (8.4-GHz) Doppler and ranging with the Mars Observer spacecraft planned for next year, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in ground system error modeling assumptions. Orbit determination error statistics computed for a 182-day Doppler and ranging data arc predicted Mars approach orbit determination accuracies of about 0.45 micro-rad in an angular sense, using a conservative ground system error model as a baseline. When less-conservative error model assumptions were employed, it was found that orbit determination accuracies of 0.19 to 0.30 micro-rad could be obtained; the level of accuracy of the assumed Mars ephemeris is about 0.11 micro-rad. In comparison, Doppler-only performance with the baseline error model was predicted to be about 1.30 to 1.51 micro-rad, although it was found that when improved station location accuracies and Global Positioning System-based tropospheric calibration accuracies were assumed, accuracies of 0.44 to 0.52 micro-rad were predicted. In the Doppler plus ranging cases, the results were relatively insensitive to variations in ranging system and station delay calibration uncertainties of a few meters and tropospheric zenith delay calibration uncertainties of a few centimeters.
In the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) mission scenarios, expanding human presence is the primary driver for high data rate Mars-Earth communications. To support an expanding human presence, the data rate requirement will be gradual, following the phased implementation over time of the evolving SEI mission. Similarly, the growth and evolution of the space communications infrastructure to serve this requirement will also be gradual to efficiently exploit the useful life of the installed communications infrastructure and to ensure backward compatibility with long-term users. In work conducted over the past year, a number of alternatives for supporting high data rate Mars-Earth communications have been analyzed with respect to their compatibility with gradual evolution of the space communications infrastructure. The alternatives include RF, millimeter wave (MMW), and optical implementations, and incorporate both surface and space-based relay terminals in the Mars and Earth regions. Each alternative is evaluated with respect to its ability to efficiently meet a projected growth in data rate over time, its technology readiness, and its capability to satisfy the key conditions and constraints imposed by evolutionary transition. As a result of this analysis, a set of attractive alternative communications architectures have been identified and described, and a road map is developed that illustrates the most rational and beneficial evolutionary paths for the communications infrastructure.
A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.
Based on He(2+) and H(-) ion composition data from the Plasma Composition Experiment on ISEE 1, a scenario is proposed for the solar wind penetration of the earth's magnetic tail, which does not require that the solar wind plasma be magnetized. While this study does not take issue with the notion that earth's magnetic field merges with the solar wind magnetic field on a regular basis, it focuses on certain aspects of interaction between the solar wind particles and the earth's field, e.g, the fact that the geomagnetic tail always has a plasma sheet, even during times when the physical signs of magnetic merging are weak or absent. It is argued that the solar plasma enters along slots between the tail lobes and the plasma sheet, even quite close to earth, convected inward along the plasma sheet boundary layer or adjacent to it, by the electric fringe field of the ever present low-latitude magnetopause boundary layer (LLBL). The required E x B drifts are produced by closing LLBL equipotential surfaces through the plasma sheet.
The cosmological distance scale to gamma-ray bursts is indicated by the observed distribution of the bursts in angle and intensity. The redshifts of the weakest and the strongest bursts detected by the BATSE experiment are estimated to be z = 1.5 and z = 0.2, respectively, while the strongest bursts detected by the PVO in its 11 years of operation were at z = 0.05. The bursts' rate is about 10 exp -6 per year in a galaxy like ours, and a typical energy release is about 10 exp 51 ergs, assuming isotropic emission. The rate of the neutron star and black hole collisions in close binaries is somewhat higher, and those collisions release 10 exp 53 - 10 exp 54 ergs in a burstlike form, making them the primary candidates for the observed gamma-ray events. Contrary to the common belief, no observations available to date are in conflict with the cosmological distance to the bursters. A detection of gravitational lensing of some bursts, the redshift of the weakest events, and the absorption of soft X-rays by the interstellar matter in the plane of our galaxy, are the specific predictions of the cosmological scenario.
This paper provides an initial trade-off study among several lunar construction options available to the Space Exploration Initiative. The relative time effectiveness of Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA), Intra-Vehicular Activity (IVA), and Earth-based remote control assembly and construction methods are studied. Also considered is whether there is any construction time savings to building roads in advance, or surveying the construction sites with orbiters or rovers in advance. The study was conducted by adding detail to a potentially real scenario - a nuclear power plant - and applying time multipliers for the various control options and terrain alternatives, provided by roboticists among the authors. The authors conclude that IVA is a faster construction method than either EVA or construction conducted remotely from Earth. Surveying proposed sites in advance, with orbiters and rovers, provides a significant time savings through adding to certainty, and therefore may be cost effective. Developing a heavy-lift launch capability and minimizing assembly and construction processes by landing large payloads is probably worthwhile to the degree possible, as construction activities would use a large amount of surface operations time.
Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).
This paper presents a description of a model for a space vehicle operational scenario and the commands for avionics. This model will be used in developing a dynamic architecture simulation model using the Statemate CASE tool for validation of the Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA). The SGOAA has been proposed as an avionics architecture standard to NASA through its Strategic Avionics Technology Working Group (SATWG) and has been accepted by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) for conversion into an SAE Avionics Standard. This architecture was developed for the Flight Data Systems Division (FDSD) of the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Company (LESC), Houston, Texas. This SGOAA includes a generic system architecture for the entities in spacecraft avionics, a generic processing external and internal hardware architecture, and a nine class model of interfaces. The SGOAA is both scalable and recursive and can be applied to any hierarchical level of hardware/software processing systems.
Integrated systems and mission study results are presented which quantify the rationale and benefits for developing and using nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) technology for returning humans to the moon in the early 2000's. At present, the Exploration Program Office (ExPO) is considering chemical propulsion for its 'First Lunar Outpost' (FLO) mission, and NTR propulsion for the more demanding Mars missions to follow. The use of an NTR-based lunar transfer stage, capable of evolving to Mars mission applications, could result in an accelerated schedule, reduced cost approach to moon/Mars exploration. Lunar mission applications would also provide valuable operational experience and serve as a 'proving ground' for NTR engine and stage technologies. In terms of performance benefits, studies indicate that an expendable NTR stage powered by two 50 klbf engines can deliver approximately 96 metric tons (t) to trans-lunar injection (TLI) conditions for an initial mass in low earth orbit (IMLEO) of approximately 199 t compared to 250 t for a cryogenic chemical TLI stage. The NTR stage liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank has a 10 m diameter, 14.8 m length, and 68 t LH2 capacity. The NTR utilizes a 'graphite' fuel form consisting of coated UC2 particles in a graphite substrate, and has a specific impulse capability of approximately 870 s, and an engine thrust-to-weight ratio of approximately 4.8. The NTR stage and its piloted FLO lander has a total length of approximately 38 m and can be launched by a single Saturn V-derived heavy lift launch vehicle (HLLV) in the 200 to 250 t-class range. The paper summarizes NASA's First Lunar Outpost scenario, describes characteristics for representative engine/stage configurations, and examines the impact on engine selection and vehicle design resulting from a consideration of alternative NTR fuel forms and lunar mission profiles.
We compute the evolution of spatially flat, mixed cold and hot dark matter models containing both baryonic matter and two kinds of dark matter. Hydrodynamics is treated with a highly developed Eulerian hydrodynamic code (see Cen 1992). A standard particle-mesh (PM) code is also used in parallel to calculate the motion of the dark matter components. We adopt the following parameters: h equivalent to (sub 0)/100 km/s Mpc(exp -1) = 0.5, OMEGA(sub C) = 0.3, and OMEGA(sub B) = 0.06, with amplitude of the perturbation spectrum fixed by the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) Dark Matter Radiation (DMR) measurements (Smoot et al. 1992) being sigma (sub 8) = 0.67. Four different boxes are simulated with box sizes of L = (64, 16, 4, 1) h(exp -1) Mpc, respectively, the two small boxes providing good resolution but little valid information due to absence of large-scale power. We use 128(exp 3) approximate 10(exp 6.3) baryonic cells, 128(exp .3) cold dark matter particles, and 2 x 128(exp 3) hot dark matter particles. In addition to the dark matter we follow separately six baryonic species (H, H(+), He, He(+), He(++), e(-)) with allowance for both (nonequilibrium) collisional and radiative ionization in every cell. The background radiation field is also followed in detail with allowance made for both continuum and line processes, to allow nonequilibrium heating and cooling processes to be followed in detail. The mean final Zeldovich-Sunyaev y parameter is estimated to be y Bar = (5.4 + or - 2.7) x 10(exp -7) below currently attainable observations, with a rms fluctuation of approximately delta bar y = (0.6 + or - 3.0) x 10(exp -7) on arcminute scales. The rate of galaxy formation peaks at an even later epoch (z approximate 0.3) than in the standard (OMEGA = 1, sigma sub 8 = 0.67) cold dark matter (CDM) model (z approximate 0.5) and, at a redshift of z = 4, is nearly a factor of 100 lower than for the CDM model with the same value of sigma sub 8. With regard to mass function, the smallest objects are stabilized against collapse by thermal energy: the mass-weighted mass spectrum has a broad peak in the vicinity of M(sub B) = 10(exp 9.5) solar mass with a reasonable fit to the Schechter luminosity function if the ratio of baryon mass to blue light is approximately 4. In addition, one very large PM simulation was made in a box with size (320 h(exp - 1) Mpc) containing 3 x 200(exp 3) = 10(exp 7.4) particles. Utilizing this simulation we find that the model yields a cluster mass function which is about a factor of 4 higher than observed, but a cluster-cluster correlation length marginally lower than observed, but that both are closer to observations than in the (COBE) normalized CDM model. The one-dimensional pairwise velocity dispersion is 605 + or - 8 km/s at 1/h separation, lower than that of the DCM model normalized to COBE, but still significant higher than observations (Davis & Peebles 1983). A plausible velocity bias b(sub v) = 0.8 + or - 0.1 on this scale will reduce but not remove the discrepancy. The velocity auto-correlat ion function has a coherence length of 40/h Mpc, which is somewhat lower than the observed counterpart. In all these respects the model would be improved by decreasing the cold fraction of the dark OMEGA(sub CDM)/ (OMEGA(sub CDM) + OMEGA(sub HDB). But formation of galaxies and clusters of galaxies is much later in this model than in COBE-normalized CDM, perhaps too late. To improve on these constraints a larger ratio of OMEGA(sub CDM)/ (OMEGA(sub CDM) + OMEGA(sub HDM)) is required than the value of 0.67 adopted here. It does not seem possible to find a value for this ratio which would satisfy all tests. Overall, the model is similar both on large and intermediate scales to the standard CDM model normalized to the same value of sigma(sub B), but the problem with regard to late formation of galaxies is more severe in this model than in that CDM model. Adding hot dark matter, significantly improves the ability of the COBE-normalized CDM scenario to fit existing observations, but the model is in fact not as good as the CDM model with the same sigma(sub 8) and is still probably unsatisfactory with regard to several critical tests.
A three-dimensional transport model, which uses winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system, is used to study the transport of supersonic aircraft exhaust in the lower stratosphere. A passive tracer is continuously injected into the transport model. The tracer source distribution is based on realistic scenarios for the daily emission rate of reactive nitrogen species for all forecasted flight routes. Winds are from northern hemisphere winter/spring months for 1979 and 1989; there are minimal differences between the tracer integrations for the 2 years. During the integration, peak tracer mixing ratios in the flight corridors are compared with the zonal mean and found to be greater by a factor of 2 or less. This implies that the zonal mean assumption used in two dimensional models is reasonable during winter and spring. There is a preference for pollutant buildup in the heavily traveled North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. Pollutant concentration in the corridors depends on the position of the Aleutian anticyclone and the northern hemisphere polar vortex edge.
A system for global inventory control of electronically tagged military hardware is achievable using a LEO satellite constellation. An equipment Tag can communicate directly to the satellite with a power of 5 watts or less at a data rate of 2400 to 50,000 bps. As examples, two proposed commercial LEO systems, IRIDIUM and ORBCOMM, are both capable of providing global coverage but with dramatically different telecom capacities. Investigation of these two LEO systems as applied to the Tag scenario provides insight into satellite design trade-offs, constellation trade-offs and signal dynamics that effect the performance of a satellite-based global inventory control system.
Mission and concept studies for space exploration are described for the purpose of identifying flow physics for entry capsule mission scenarios. These studies are a necessary precursor to the development and application of CFD prediction methodology for capsule aerothermodynamics. The scope of missions considered includes manned and unmanned cislunar missions, missions to the minor planets, and missions to the major planets and other celestial objects in the solar system.
The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.
This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.
This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.
Abnormal landing scenarios of the X-38 prototype Crew Rescue Vehicle (CRV) were modeled for three different cases involving non-deployment of landing gear with an explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element code, MSC/DYTRAN. The goal of this research was to develop models to predict the probability of crew injuries. The initial velocity conditions for the X-38 with chute deployed were 10 ft/s vertical and 57 ft/s longitudinal velocity. An MSC/NASTRAN structural model was supplied by JSC and was converted to a dynamic MSC/DYTRAN model. The MSC/NASTRAN model did not include seats or floor structure; thus, the acceleration of a lumped-mass attached to the bulkhead near each assumed occupant location was used to determine injury risk for each occupant. The worst case for injury was nondeployment of all gears. The mildest case was nondeployment of one main gear. Although a probability for minor injury was predicted for all cases, it is expected that the addition of energy-absorbing floor structure and seats would greatly diminish the probability of injury.