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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2024

3D Scanning System to Assess Gravity-Dependent Body Shape Changes

The human body shows unique physiological and morphological changes when exposed to different gravity conditions, including muscle atrophy, fluid shift, spinal elongation, and body posture adjustments. Such changes need to be incorporated for human-system integration in the vehicle habitat, garment, and spacesuit designs, as inaccurate body measurements can result in suboptimal crew protection that can potentially decrease injury tolerance. However, the traditional linear measurements, such as stature, segment lengths or circumferences measured using a caliper or tape measure, often show limited consistency and are unable to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the human body. While 3D body scanning can provide significant advantages over linear measurements, the technologies have not been fully developed or customized for in-flight scanning. For ground laboratory use, several different scanner types are commercially available. However, in-flight scanning requires additional technical considerations, such as minimal scan time, simplified calibration, and sufficient capture volume. This work aims to develop a prototype 3-D body scanning system that is customized for in-flight use to scan crewmembers, with the configuration and performance optimized for detecting known gravity-dependent body shape and posture changes. A hardware system will be custom built using a network of commercial off-the-shelf 3D sensors. The sensor parameters and settings will be optimized to detect the targeted body shape changes, specifically using body manikins of which the shape and size are iteratively permuted to simulate the known changes by fluid shift and spinal elongation. The capture volume will be also matched for a range of body sizes from a 1st percentile female to 99th percentile male. Unintentional body motions or floating in microgravity will be also simulated and incorporated. A data acquisition software will be developed for efficient in-flight operations with minimal overhead and easy-to-use user interface. A simplified calibration procedure will be designed for robust scanning against frequent vibration or unexpected sensor position shifts. The system will be tested in the ground laboratory for accuracy and reliability against a reference scanning system. New anthropometry measurements will be also identified to sensitively capture the gravity dependent body shape changes, in addition to the traditional anthropometry measurements. A novel landmark-based technique will be tested for consistent anthropometry measurements across posture variations. If successfully developed and deployed, the new system is expected to provide previously unavailable body shape and size data from different gravitational environments, including 0-g, 1/6-g, and 1-g. Such data can improve suit fit, habitat design, exercise efficacy quantification and sizing of orthostatic intolerance garments.

K H Kim↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aemulus ν: precision halo mass functions in wνCDM cosmologies

Precise and accurate predictions of the halo mass function for cluster mass scales in wνCDM cosmologies are crucial for extracting robust and unbiased cosmological information from upcoming galaxy cluster surveys. Here, we present a halo mass function emulator for cluster mass scales (≳ 1013 M ⊙/h) up to redshift z = 2 with comprehensive support for the parameter space of wνCDM cosmologies allowed by current data. Based on the Aemulus ν suite of simulations, the emulator marks a significant improvement in the precision of halo mass function predictions by incorporating both massive neutrinos and non-standard dark energy equation of state models. This allows for accurate modeling of the cosmology dependence in large-scale structure and galaxy cluster studies. We show that the emulator, designed using Gaussian Process Regression, has negligible theoretical uncertainties compared to dominant sources of error in future cluster abundance studies. Our emulator is publicly available (https://github.com/DelonShen/aemulusnu_hmf), providing the community with a crucial tool for upcoming cosmological surveys such as LSST and Euclid.

cluster counts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the quantum heat contribution from a driven superconducting circuit

Heat flow management at the nanoscale is of great importance for emergent quantum technologies. For instance, a thermal sink that can be activated on-demand is a highly desirable tool that may accommodate the need to evacuate excess heat at chosen times, e.g., to maintain cryogenic temperatures or reset a quantum system to ground, and the possibility of controlled unitary evolution otherwise. Here we propose a design of such heat switch based on a single coherently driven qubit. We show that the heat flow provided by a hot source to the qubit can be switched on and off by varying external parameters, the frequency and the intensity of the driving. The complete suppression of the heat flow is a quantum effect occurring for specific driving parameters that we express and we analyze the role of the coherences in the free-qubit energy eigenbasis. We finally study the feasibility of this quantum heat switch in a circuit QED setup involving a charge qubit coupled to thermal resistances. In this work, we demonstrate robustness to experimental imperfections such as additional decoherence, paving the road towards experimental verification of this effect.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2011

Orion Absolute Navigation System Progress and Challenges

The Orion spacecraft is being designed as NASA's next-generation exploration vehicle for crewed missions beyond Low-Earth Orbit. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to benchmark the current state of the design and some of the rationale and analysis behind it. There are specific challenges to address when preparing a timely and effective design for the Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1), while still looking ahead and providing software extensibility for future exploration missions. The primary measurements in a Near-Earth or Mid-Earth environment consist of GPS pseudorange and deltarange, but for future explorations missions the use of star-tracker and optical navigation sources need to be considered. Discussions are presented for state size and composition, processing techniques, and consider states. A presentation is given for the processing technique using the computationally stable and robust UDU formulation with an Agee-Turner Rank-One update. This allows for computational savings when dealing with many parameters which are modeled as slowly varying Gauss-Markov processes. Preliminary analysis shows up to a 50% reduction in computation versus a more traditional formulation. Several state elements are discussed and evaluated, including position, velocity, attitude, clock bias/drift, and GPS measurement biases in addition to bias, scale factor, misalignment, and non-orthogonalities of the accelerometers and gyroscopes. Another consideration is the initialization of the EKF in various scenarios. Scenarios such as single-event upset, ground command, pad alignment, cold start are discussed as are strategies for whole and partial state updates as well as covariance considerations. Strategies are given for dealing with latent measurements and high-rate propagation using multi-rate architecture. The details of the rate groups and the data ow between the elements is discussed and evaluated.

Holt, Greg N.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Implementation of Active Thermal Control (ATC) for the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Radiometer

NASA's Earth Observing Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission is scheduled to launch in November 2014 into a 685 kilometer near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit. SMAP will provide comprehensive global mapping measurements of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state in order to enhance understanding of the processes that link the water, energy, and carbon cycles. The primary objectives of SMAP are to improve worldwide weather and flood forecasting, enhance climate prediction, and refine drought and agriculture monitoring during its three year mission. The SMAP instrument architecture incorporates an L-band radar and an L-band radiometer which share a common feed horn and parabolic mesh reflector. The instrument rotates about the nadir axis at approximately 15 revolutions per minute, thereby providing a conically scanning wide swath antenna beam that is capable of achieving global coverage within three days. In order to make the necessary precise surface emission measurements from space, the electronics and hardware associated with the radiometer must meet tight short-term (instantaneous and orbital) and long-term (monthly and mission) thermal stabilities. Maintaining these tight thermal stabilities is quite challenging because the sensitive electronics are located on a fast spinning platform that can either be in full sunlight or total eclipse, thus exposing them to a highly transient environment. A passive design approach was first adopted early in the design cycle as a low-cost solution. With careful thermal design efforts to cocoon and protect all sensitive components, all stability requirements were met passively. Active thermal control (ATC) was later added after the instrument Preliminary Design Review (PDR) to mitigate the threat of undetected gain glitches, not for thermal-stability reasons. Gain glitches are common problems with radiometers during missions, and one simple way to avoid gain glitches is to use the in-flight set point programmability that ATC affords to operate the radiometer component away from the problematic temperature zone. A simple ThermXL model (10 nodes) was developed to exercise quick trade studies among various proposed control algorithms: Modified P control vs. PI control. The ThermXL results were then compared with the detailed Thermal Desktop (TD) model for corroboration. Once done, the simple ThermXL model was used to evaluate parameter effects such as temperature digitization, heater size and gain margin, time step, and voltage variation of power supply on the ATC performance. A Modified P control algorithm was implemented into the instrument flight electronics based on the ThermXL results. The thermal short-term stability margin decreased by 10 percent with ATC and a wide temperature error band (plus or minus 0.1 degrees Centigrade) compared to the original passive thermal design. However, a tighter temperature error band (plus or minus 0.1 degrees Centigrade) increased the thermal short-term stability margin by a factor of three over the passive thermal design. The current ATC design provides robust thermal control, tighter stability, and greater in-flight flexibility even though its implementation was prompted by non-thermal performance concerns.

Mikhaylov, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2023

CoolPINNs: A physics-informed neural network modeling of active cooling in vascular systems

Emerging technologies like hypersonic aircraft, space exploration vehicles, and batteries avail fluid circulation in embedded microvasculatures for efficient thermal regulation. Modeling is vital during the design and operational phases of these engineered systems. However, many challenges exist in developing a modeling framework. What is lacking is an accurate framework that (i) captures sharp jumps in the thermal flux across complex vasculature layouts, (ii) deals with oblique derivatives (involving tangential and normal components), (iii) handles nonlinearity because of radiative heat transfer, (iv) provides a high-speed forecast for real-time monitoring, and (v) facilitates robust inverse modeling. Here, this paper addresses these challenges by availing the power of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). We develop a fast, reliable, and accurate Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) framework for vascular-based thermal regulation—called CoolPINNs: a PINNs-based modeling framework for active cooling. The proposed mesh-less framework elegantly overcomes all the mentioned challenges. The significance of the reported research is multi-fold. First, the framework is valuable for real-time monitoring of thermal regulatory systems because of rapid forecasting. Second, researchers can address complex thermoregulation designs since the approach is meshless. Finally, the framework facilitates systematic parameter identification and inverse modeling studies, perhaps the most significant utility of the current framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of coated heat flux gauges for fast responding measurements

Thermal systems often exhibit transient behaviors that have important implications for the operation of the system and can be difficult to predict. For these reasons, experimental testing is often required to ensure system durability requirements are achieved. One important parameter governing the survivability of components in hot, high-stress environments is the heat flux into the part that dictates the temperature distribution for the component. However, sensors required to experimentally characterize heat fluxes in extreme environments must also be resilient. Here, this study presents the development of coated heat transfer gauges capable of robust, high-frequency measurements in turbine research facilities. The addition of a protective coating increases the durability of the gauge, but inherent of that coating is the attenuation of high-frequency temperature penetrations. As a result, this study first outlines the use of analytical solutions to define a gauge design for a specific frequency range and heat transfer, ensuring that subsurface signals can be rectified to surface conditions through inverse methods. Then, the fabrication of polyimide substrate sensors with a parylene-F coating is described. Micro surface heaters added to the custom sensors were used to determine important geometric and thermal properties necessary to calculate accurate surface heat flux. Ultimately, this work shows increased sensor robustness in a turbine test bed and experimentally validates that the frequency response of the fabricated sensors meet the design intent.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of ion transport properties in ion exchange membranes for photoelectrochemical water splitting

Photoelectrochemical (PEC) water-splitting systems have the unique ability to produce renewable hydrogen directly from sunlight, independent of the electrical grid. These systems are therefore appealing technological options for resilient long-term energy storage. Ion selective membranes, such as monopolar and bipolar membranes, are a vital component of PEC water-splitting systems. These membranes allow for ionic conduction between the cathode and anode chambers, separation of products, and improved catalyst environments for reactions. In order to measure key properties and to study the performance of these ion exchange membranes, it is imperative to develop a robust testing protocol that can be used across the field. This paper introduces two standard electrochemical cells designed to directly measure ion transport properties in monopolar and bipolar membranes. The first electrochemical cell uses commercially available Pt disk electrodes to preform electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and reliably measure through-plane conductivity of monopolar membranes. The second electrochemical cell uses four-point measurements with Luggin capillaries and a series of membrane configurations to perform current density-voltage and Faradaic efficiency (FE) measurements for water dissociation (WD) reactions on bipolar membranes. The cell designs and techniques laid out below allow for accurate measurement of ion transport parameters in ion exchange membranes, direct comparison of membranes being developed across the field, and in turn, greater advancements in ion exchange membranes and PEC water-splitting systems.

cation exchange membrane↗
NASA NTRS1994

Feedback Control of Plasma Instabilities with Charged Particle Beams and Study of Plasma Turbulence

A new non-perturbing technique for feedback control of plasma instabilities has been developed in the Columbia Linear Machine (CLM). The feedback control scheme involves the injection of a feedback modulated ion beam as a remote suppressor. The ion beam was obtained from a compact ion beam source which was developed for this purpose. A Langmuir probe was used as the feedback sensor. The feedback controller consisted of a phase-shifter and amplifiers. This technique was demonstrated by stabilizing various plasma instabilities to the background noise level, like the trapped particle instability, the ExB instability and the ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) driven instability. An important feature of this scheme is that the injected ion beam is non-perturbing to the plasma equilibrium parameters. The robustness of this feedback stabilization scheme was also investigated. The principal result is that the scheme is fairly robust, tolerating about 100% variation about the nominal parameter values. Next, this scheme is extended to the unsolved general problem of controlling multimode plasma instabilities simultaneously with a single sensor-suppressor pair. A single sensor-suppressor pair of feedback probes is desirable to reduce the perturbation caused by the probes. Two plasma instabilities the ExB and the ITG modes, were simultaneously stabilized. A simple 'state' feedback type method was used where more state information was generated from the single sensor Langmuir probe by appropriate signal processing, in this case, by differentiation. This proof-of-principle experiment demonstrated for the first time that by designing a more sophisticated electronic feedback controller, many plasma instabilities may be simultaneously controlled. Simple theoretical models showed generally good agreement with the feedback experimental results. On a parallel research front, a better understanding of the saturated state of a plasma instability was sought partly with the help of feedback. A plasma instability is usually observed in its saturated state and appears as a single feature in the frequency spectrum with a single azimuthal and parallel wavenumbers. The physics of the non-zero spectral width was investigated in detail because the finite spectral width can cause "turbulent" transport. One aspect of the "turbulence" was investigated by obtaining the scaling of the linear growth rate of the instabilities with the fluctuation levels. The linear growth rates were measured with the established gated feedback technique. The research showed that the ExB instability evolves into a quasi-coherent state when the fluctuation level is high. The coherent aspects were studied with a bispectral analysis. Moreover, the single spectral feature was discovered to be actually composed of a few radial harmonics. The radial harmonics play a role in the nonlinear saturation of the instability via three-wave coupling.

Tham, Philip Kin-Wah↗
NASA NTRS2016

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets are expected to be performed in the next decade by space-based telescopes equipped with optical wavelength coronagraphs and integral field spectrographs, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs an albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. Here we apply this methodology to simulated spectra of cool giant planets. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H2-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise, in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic reflected-light spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a likely observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high accuracy, while parameters uncertainties are model-dependent.

spectroscopy↗
NASA NTRS2014

Tuning Monotonic Basin Hopping: Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Search as Applied to Low-Thrust Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization methods using MBH have become well developed during the past decade. An essential component of MBH is a controlled random search through the multi-dimensional space of possible solutions. Historically, the randomness has been generated by drawing RVs from a uniform probability distribution. Here, we investigate the generating the randomness by drawing the RVs from Cauchy and Pareto distributions, chosen because of their characteristic long tails. We demonstrate that using Cauchy distributions (as first suggested by Englander significantly improves MBH performance, and that Pareto distributions provide even greater improvements. Improved performance is defined in terms of efficiency and robustness, where efficiency is finding better solutions in less time, and robustness is efficiency that is undiminished by (a) the boundary conditions and internal constraints of the optimization problem being solved, and (b) by variations in the parameters of the probability distribution. Robustness is important for achieving performance improvements that are not problem specific. In this work we show that the performance improvements are the result of how these long-tailed distributions enable MBH to search the solution space faster and more thoroughly. In developing this explanation, we use the concepts of sub-diffusive, normally-diffusive, and super-diffusive RWs originally developed in the field of statistical physics.

mission design↗
DOE OSTI2026

Designing the Protocols for Programmable Ammonia Catalysis

Programmable catalysis can provide a more energy-efficient and cost-effective route to enhancing commercial ammonia production, a key process in the advancement of renewable energy technologies and the manufacture of fertilizers and basic chemicals. This work explores the computational discovery of optimal forcing protocols to drive such dynamic catalysis models. By employing matrix-free time-stepper methods, coupled with an optimization approach, that integrates Bayesian optimization with a Bayesian continuation strategy to efficiently discover the periodic steady states of such periodically forced systems, we enable the discovery of complex optimal catalyst strain waveforms, while ensuring robust solver convergence. We demonstrate the flexibility of our approach to discover optimized forcing protocols under varying physical constraints on strain modulation or other catalyst operating parameters. We show that these can have a temporal structure more complex than simple step functions. In order to detect undesirable catalytic loops that may correlate with overall reduced performance, we perform a study using graph-theoretical analysis to investigate the dynamics of catalytic kinetic networks formed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

ROSE: A reduced-order scattering emulator for optical models

A new generation of phenomenological optical potentials requires robust calibration and uncertainty quantification, motivating the use of Bayesian statistical methods. These Bayesian methods usually require calculating observables for thousands or even millions of parameter sets, making fast and accurate emulators highly desirable or even essential. Emulating scattering across different energies or with interactions such as optical potentials is challenging because of the nonaffine parameter dependence, meaning the parameters do not all factorize from individual operators. Here we introduce and demonstrate the reduced-order scattering emulator ( ROSE ) framework, a reduced basis emulator that can handle nonaffine problems. ROSE is fully extensible and works within the publicly available band framework software suite for calibration, model mixing, and experimental design. As a demonstration problem, we use ROSE to calibrate a realistic nucleon-target scattering model through the calculation of elastic cross sections. This problem shows the practical value of the ROSE framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification with controlled trade-offs between emulator speed and accuracy as compared to high-fidelity solvers. Finally, planned extensions of ROSE are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Digital active control law synthesis for aeroservoelastic systems

This paper presents a formulation for synthesis of digital active control laws for aeroservoelastic systems, which are typically modeled by large order equations in order to accurately represent the rigid and flexible body modes, unsteady aerodynamic forces, actuator dynamics, and gust spectra. The control law is expected to satisfy multiple design requirements on the dynamic loads, responses, actuator deflection and rate limitations, as well as maintain certain stability margins, yet should be simple enough to be implemented by an onboard digital microprocessor. The synthesis procedure minimizes a linear quadratic Gaussian type cost function, by updating selected free parameters of the control law, while satisfying a set of inequality constraints on the design loads, responses and stability margins. A stable classical control law or an estimator based full or reduced order control law can be used as an initial design starting point. The gradients of the cost function and the constraints, with respect to the digital control law design variables are derived analytically, to facilitate rapid convergence. Selected design responses can be treated as constraints instead of lumping them into the cost function, in order to satisfy individual root-mean-square load and response limitations. Constraints are also imposed on the minimum singular value requirements for stability robustness improvement.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivekananda↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Minimum-Variance Control Allocation Considering Parametric Model Uncertainty

The control allocation problem was investigated for linear dynamical systems with known parametric uncertainty. Minimizing a cost function that penalizes the variance of the error in achieving commanded forces and moments on the vehicle resulted in a special case of the weighted pseudo-inverse allocator. Rather than an engineer designing the weighting matrix, it is computed from the covariances of the control effectiveness parameters. This minimum-variance allocator balances the effectiveness of the control inputs against the corresponding levels of uncertainty. The approach was demonstrated using simulations of aircraft with realistic uncertainty levels operating in open-loop and closed-loop configurations. Results showed that when model uncertainty is known, significant, and unevenly distributed amongst the controls, the minimum-variance allocator more often achieves the intended forces and moments on the vehicle in comparison to other allocators, which can lead to increased performance, reliability, and safety during flight tests. The cost for this robustness is a diminished achievable moment space for the vehicle.

Control allocation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: $w$CDM cosmology from simulation-based inference with persistent homology on the sphere

We present cosmological constraints from Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using persistent homology, a topological data analysis technique that tracks how features like clusters and voids evolve across density thresholds. For the first time, we apply spherical persistent homology to galaxy survey data through the algorithm TopoS2, which is optimized for curved-sky analyses and HEALPix compatibility. Employing a simulation-based inference framework with the Gower Street simulation suite, specifically designed to mimic DES Y3 data properties, we extract topological summary statistics from convergence maps across multiple smoothing scales and redshift bins. After neural network compression of these statistics, we estimate the likelihood function and validate our analysis against baryonic feedback effects, finding minimal biases (under $0.3σ$) in the $Ω_\mathrm{m}-S_8$ plane. Assuming the $w$CDM model, our combined Betti numbers and second moments analysis yields $S_8 = 0.821 \pm 0.018$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.304\pm0.037$-constraints 70% tighter than those from cosmic shear two-point statistics in the same parameter plane. Our results demonstrate that topological methods provide a powerful and robust framework for extracting cosmological information, with our spherical methodology readily applicable to upcoming Stage IV wide-field galaxy surveys.

Prat, J. [Nordita; Royal Inst. Tech., Sodertalje; ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗