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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Training Requirements Modeling to Inform Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The IMPRINT results will be presented in the modeling and simulation sub-tag. Here we present results of a model based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibility matrix (CQRM), a tool used to identify the crew qualifications for each area of responsibility (operation, system, and payload) for a mission. The model outputs an optimized allocation of training assignments along with a flight-assigned CQRM that can be used to consider the expertise that can be trained within a crew of a given size. We discuss the CQRM model result implications on the trade space for Mars mission crew size.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2025

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Trade Space Analyses for Mars Mission Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) developed a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for Mars missions based on human performance and expertise modeling. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibilities matrix (CQRM). We present example model results and discuss implications on trade space analyses for Mars mission crew size.

Mars Mission↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Plasma Contactor Unit (PCU) Utilization Plan Assessment Update

The International Space Station (ISS) vehicle undergoes spacecraft charging as it interacts with Earth's ionosphere and magnetic field. The interaction can result in a large potential difference developing between the ISS metal chassis and the local ionosphere plasma environment. If an astronaut conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) is exposed to the potential difference, then a possible electrical shock hazard arises. The control of this hazard was addressed by a number of documents within the ISS Program (ISSP) including Catastrophic Safety Hazard for Astronauts on EVA (ISS-EVA-312-4A_revE). The safety hazard identified the risk for an astronaut to experience an electrical shock in the event an arc was generated on an extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) surface. A catastrophic safety hazard, by the ISS requirements, necessitates mitigation by a two-fault tolerant system of hazard controls. Traditionally, the plasma contactor units (PCUs) on the ISS have been used to limit the charging and serve as a "ground strap" between the ISS structure and the surrounding ionospheric plasma. In 2009, a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) team evaluated the PCU utilization plan (NESC Request #07-054-E) with the objective to assess whether leaving PCUs off during non-EVA time periods presented risk to the ISS through assembly completion. For this study, in situ measurements of ISS charging, covering the installation of three of the four photovoltaic arrays, and laboratory testing results provided key data to underpin the assessment. The conclusion stated, "there appears to be no significant risk of damage to critical equipment nor excessive ISS thermal coating damage as a result of eliminating PCU operations during non- EVA times." In 2013, the ISSP was presented with recommendations from Boeing Space Environments for the "Conditional" Marginalization of Plasma Hazard. These recommendations include a plan that would keep the PCUs off during EVAs when the space environment forecast input to the ISS charging model indicates floating potentials (FP) within specified limits. These recommendations were based on the persistence of conditions in the space environment due to the current low solar cycle and belief in the accuracy and completeness of the ISS charging model. Subsequently, a Noncompliance Report (NCR), ISS-NCR-232G, Lack of Two-fault Tolerance to EVA Crew Shock in the Low Earth Orbit Plasma Environment, was signed in September 2013 specifying new guidelines for the use of shock hazard controls based on a forecast of the space environment from ISS plasma measurements taken prior to the EVA [ISS-EVA-312-AC, 2012]. This NESC assessment re-evaluates EVA charging hazards through a process that is based on over 14 years of ISS operations, charging measurements, laboratory tests, EMU studies and modifications, and safety reports. The assessment seeks an objective review of the plasma charging hazards associated with EVA operations to determine if any of the present hazard controls can safely change the PCU utilization plan to allow more flexibility in ISS operations during EVA preparation and execution.

Hernandez-Pellerano, Amri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Progress on the MARVEL Cybersecurity by Design Model-Based Systems Engineering Project

Formal model-based systems engineering (MBSE) combines a model, systems thinking, and systems engineering to visually depict the boundaries, context, and behavior of interconnected systems, facilitating effective design, development, and utilization of engineered systems throughout the systems engineering lifecycle. Although nuclear reactor vendors employ these tools to integrate functionality, performance, and safety, they are not yet addressing digital risk concerns introduced by use of operational technology, such as digital instrumentation and control systems. To accomplish this objective, the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) microreactor was used as an MBSE case study. This real-world application provides a first-of-a-kind opportunity to demonstrate the benefits of integrating digital risk and cybersecurity into the MBSE design process of a nuclear reactor. This paper provides an update of the ongoing MARVEL Cyber MBSE project as it specifically relates to the integration of digital risk management and cybersecurity by design.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effect of ambient ozone exposure on three types of diabetes: a meta-analysis

Background: Ozone as an air pollutant is gradually becoming a threat to people's health. However, the effect of ozone exposure on risk of developing diabetes, a fast-growing global metabolic disease, remains controversial. Objective: To evaluate the impact of ambient ozone exposure on the incidence rate of type 1, type 2 and gestational diabetes mellitus. Method: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases before July 9, 2022, to determine relevant literature. Data were extracted after quality evaluation according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and the agency for healthcare research and quality (AHRQ) standards, and a meta-analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between ozone exposure and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The heterogeneity test, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were performed using Stata 16.0. Results: Our search identified 667 studies from three databases, 19 of which were included in our analysis after removing duplicate and ineligible studies. Among the remaining studies, three were on T1D, five were on T2D, and eleven were on GDM. The result showed that ozone exposure was positively correlated with T2D [effect size (ES) = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11] and GDM [pooled odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03]. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that ozone exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy might raise the risk of GDM. However, no significant association was observed between ozone exposure and T1D. Conclusion: Long-term exposure to ozone may increase the risk of T2D, and daily ozone exposure during pregnancy was a hazard factor for developing GDM. Decreasing ambient ozone pollution may reduce the burden of both diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Butler, Doug↗
DOE OSTI2020

A template of information needs for decision-making about delaying remediation on contaminated lands to protect human health

The contamination legacy of industrialization, militarization, and nuclear arms race poses current or future risks to populations and the environment. Responsible parties and regulators make decisions regarding which sites to clean up, how, how much, and when. This study aimed to provide an information needs template to evaluate and reduce risks to human health when considering whether to initiate or delay remediation. This investigation focused on four aspects of timing and prioritization: 1) management, planning and implementation, 2) source terms, pathways, and exposures, 3) risks and receptors, and 4) external drivers. Within each type, issues were identified and described. Management class included personnel, health and safety data, funding, equipment, and structural integrity. Source term included contaminant sources, pathways, initiating events, and barriers to exposure. Risk included types and exposures to workers and general public. External drivers included regulatory framework, stakeholders, Congressional mandates, and economic and social contexts. Risk may increase over time as contamination spreads, enters aquifers, and reaches receptors, and may decline as radionuclides decay, and plumes dissipate. The overall objective was to provide a template of information that is useful to managers and regulators, and might be used by the public to understand the risks and benefits of re-prioritization cleanup.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity for Distance Relay Protection

This project is a DOE follow-up effort on the CREDC workshop held on September 13, 2018 in Cambridge, MA to discuss cybersecurity of distance relays, which considered the benefits, vulnerabilities and risk mitigations for the use of communication systems in power system protection. The objectives of this project are to define the taxonomy of relay protection and associated communications; define use cases describing approaches to reduce the cyber-attack surface on those protective relays; and evaluate the loss of operational functional capability from changes to communication coverage. Mitigating controls will also be evaluated to understand if there are other approaches to reduce attack surfaces while maintaining communications or partial communications. Distance relays are used to protect transmission lines of approximately 10 to 300 miles in length, by detecting short circuits (i.e., faults) on the lines and then tripping circuit breakers in the substation. Such protection systems are a subset of the power system and they incorporate sensing, logic and communication functions. Protection system exposure to cyberattack could be drastically limited by disconnecting relays from all vulnerable communication systems, but this may adversely impact overall power system performance in the absence of cyberattack. This project began with a use case analysis of protection systems with communications, as summarized in this report. It continued with modeling, testing and evaluation in a miniature power system (MPS), located in the Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) Electric Power Training Center (EPTC). The project also incorporated feedback from two industry meetings held in February and September 2019. The suggested next steps account for and complement the work already underway with DOE/CESER funding: 1. Study the performance of LCD and PC vs. PUTT, which is less reliant on communication system performance and GPS timing references. The PUTT scheme could prove to be more resilient to cyberattack or communications-related disruption. It could also be more tolerant of message re-routing with SDN/SDR communication systems. On the other hand, it will be more vulnerable to false tripping during dynamic events or to loss of the voltage signal. The optimum choice of scheme may depend on the specific power system and risk assessment. This study could provide a new template for evaluation based on business functions. 2. Research and develop new methods to detect and monitor distributed physical attacks, possibly using drones, video sensors, thermal sensors, machine learning and other advanced techniques. This will help mitigate the impact of cyberattack on the protection system, and will also help mitigate the impact of wild fires. 3. Implement a scalable PKI for use in electric utility protection systems. This will encourage widespread adoption of secure authentication methods that are already available, but not widely used at present. This will help secure engineering access to the relays. 4. Investigate the use of SDN in combination with SDR to achieve better cybersecurity and electromagnetic security of the network, incorporating path variability. This would help secure both engineering access and peer-to-peer GOOSE messaging. 5. Perform additional testing, with operator evaluation of “red button” scenarios, PUTT vs. LCD, relay mis-operations, and other cyberattacks in the EPTC. This is an important advantage of testing in the EPTC rather than by computer simulation or even hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the EPTC is already dedicated to managing the situational awareness, operator response times and other human impacts. One of the project objectives was to settle on a common nomenclature for this problem space. We have concluded that the OSI layer model, supplemented by ANSI device numbers and other IEEE standards, is already well-accepted by the industry. The IEEE PSRC knowledge base provides a great deal of public information

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance, Navigation, and Control for Laser-Based Non-Cooperative Target Detumbling

Orbital debris is a well known and growing problem presenting risks to the future of spaceflight. Many pieces of debris are defunct satellites or rocket upper stages. These large objects could generate an exponentially growing cloud of debris should they be involved in a collision, i.e., Kessler Syndrome. Future orbital debris remediation efforts often propose perturbing the orbit of these large targets to mitigate risk. These plans often involve non-cooperative rendezvous. In the absence of active control, the targets are expected to be tumbling which makes rendezvous a dangerous prospect. In this work we describe a guidance, navigation, and control system for a contactless non-cooperative target detumbling methodology which will significantly increase the safety of non-cooperative rendezvous. An onboard laser generates thrust on the target by ablating its surface material. This thrust is used to control target attitude. Our guidance, navigation, and control system is able to estimate relative pose, target the laser, and maintain formation flight during the detumbling process. The system is validated with Monte Carlo simulation in a variety of scenarios.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS2002

Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

Yackovetsky, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2024

Review of the Natural History of Renal Stones in U.S. Astronauts

BACKGROUND: The formation of renal stones in astronauts may pose a considerable threat to crew health and to the completion of mission objectives. Although a history of prior renal stones is an exclusion criterion for initial selection, there have been reported cases of renal stones that have developed after selection. This led to the establishment, nine years ago, of a standardized protocol to screen for the development of renal stones pre-and post-spaceflight in all active astronauts. OVERVIEW: Literature regarding stone makeup, size, location, time to passage, and outcomes were reviewed, as well as incidence of renal stones in astronaut analog populations such as military pilots and the general population. The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) database was queried and as of 2015 there have been 22 crew members who have reported 36 renal stone events from a population of 357 astronauts, with an incidence of 0.32 events per year. This compares favorably to the incidence of 0.37 to 0.46events per year in commercial pilots. DISCUSSION: The physiologic changes associated with spaceflight have been thought to present an increased risk for the development of stones, including hypercalciuria, decreased urine pH, and reduced urine volume. NASA’s screening program, based on a rigorous ultrasound method, has now provided nine years of clinical data used to reduce the risk of flying an astronaut with a renal stone that could threaten health and mission objectives. This work and data from the ultrasound screening program was used to update the clinical practice guideline for renal stone surveillance and treatment, and other NASA documents and programs that track this risk.

C McNerlin↗
DOE OSTI2022

BETO 2021 Peer Review - 3.4.2.302 - Process Scale Up for Production Environments

This project supports the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technology Office mission of transitioning bioenergy technologies to market by de-risking integration, developing scaling relations and modeling that de-risks scale up, and providing a feedback loop with lower TRL projects to understand process and technology fundamentals. Two objectives were pursued during this merit cycle. First, the Thermal and Catalytic Process Development Unit (TCPDU), a 0.5 ton/day pilot plant, was used to validate kinetic models developed by the Consortium for Computational Physics and Chemistry (CCPC). Validating the models accurately predict product yields and composition is a first step toward de-risking a common industry failure - taking too large of steps between scales. In addition, these models help with design and troubleshooting of new unit operations for the TCPDU. The second objective was to conduct the FY22 verification campaign around ex situ CFP. The primary challenge of this effort was the coordination of multiple national labs and projects. This was overcome by a dedicated leadership role and effective communication strategy between the projects. Currently the project is undergoing a pivot based on a stagegate decision to not conduct the verification campaign in the TCPDU and it is focused on closing out the CFP technology at a smaller scale by the end of the current fiscal year.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Agile Approach to Adding Assurance and Mitigating Overall Mission Risk for Orion Software on EM-1

Human-rated missions like Orion are becoming exceedingly complex in terms of software contribution to achieving mission objectives, and this creates a resource challenge for everyone whose job is to add assurance that the mission is going to fly safely. Orion IV&V has addressed this challenge by providing focused assurance results of critical mission capabilities prioritized by a dynamic assessment of risk level. Prior to this approach, Orion IV&V was evaluating areas of risk in much broader, and more static, terms. Due to the Agile software development cycle that Orion follows, IV&V findings were often reported months out of phase with the developer. As a result of evolving the approach to providing assurance on Orion, IV&V is able to incrementally deliver high-priority assurance data and more impactful issues more in phase with the developer activities, thereby increasing the value of the findings to the project. The agile IV&V approach employed by the Orion IV&V team strives to achieve a cadence of delivery that matches the pace of development. This agile approach provides increased flexibility for the assurance provider to become more efficient in reporting assurance conclusions and issues. This presentation will discuss the principles which drive the design of our approach, results to date, and aspirations for long-term performance.

Assurance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a THOR Anthropometric Test Device Lumbar Spine Injury Risk Function

Currently, the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criteria (BDRC) is used to assess the risk of thoraco-lumbar spinal injury for astronauts. The BDRC has been validated for predicting injury in military aircraft ejections (Brinkley, 1968; Brinkley and Schaffer, 1971). The objective of this study was to use the injurious data behind the BDRC and subinjurious human-volunteer data to develop an injury risk function for the Test device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) to predict probability of thoraco-lumbar spine injury during space vehicle landings.

Jessica Wells↗
NASA NTRS2003

Managing flight software cost risk

This paper reports on the results of a follow up study conducted on seven JPL missions completed on or near launch since 1999. The objective is to determine to what extent the recommendations were implemented and whether they had any impact.

software cost cost risk↗
DOE OSTI2020

SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV

The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Primer on the Cost of Marine Fuels Compliant with IMO 2020 Rule

This report aims to provide information for owners and operators of U.S. ocean-going marine cargo vessels on the cost of different approaches to compliance with the IMO mandate to reduce the sulfur content of marine fuels (outside emission control areas) to no more than 0.5%. The IMO 2020 rule came into effect on January 1, 2020. The report discusses a suite of options for compliance including low-sulfur petroleum-based fuels and alternative fuels. Since fuel prices are a primary factor in determining the cost of the various alternatives, the document also includes a discussion of the main drivers of marine fuel prices. The cost analysis compares the average annual costs (capital and fuel) out to 2050 of each compliance approach under alternative scenarios regarding fuel prices, policy, and technology innovation. The cost calculations focus on representative U.S. fleet vessels for containership and tanker types. Even though the analysis focuses on average cost of approaches to comply with IMO 2020, the comparison of approaches also acknowledges other benefits or risks including fuel price risk and the contribution of the approach to achieving other potential environmental performance objectives or regulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Agent Control of Lane-Switching Automated Vehicles for Energy Efficiency

The proliferation of automatic control systems and their connectivity accents the performance of their interactions. In particular, connected and automated vehicles could become high-impact examples thanks to their energy use and productivity effects. Ideally, a controller might collectively optimize all agents' control moves for a given objective. However, limits on computational complexity, incomplete knowledge of the central planner, and risks of a single point of failure make distributed control attractive as well. This paper proposes a collaborative heuristic to approach the performance of centralized control with decentralized-like computational effort. The related centralized controller is also described in detail and evaluated as a baseline. A collaboration-intensive obstacle avoidance scenario involving electric vehicles is simulated to demonstrate benefits over fully decentralized control. While centralized optimization performed best with an 8.6 % energy reduction, the collaborative decentralized scheme reached a favorable computation-performance tradeoff with a 6.7 % energy reduction.

Dollar, R. Austin↗