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DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

Multiple capacity expansion models (CEMs) for the U.S. power system represent the balance of options among generation, transmission, and storage assets that can satisfy electric loads, operating and planning reserves, and policy requirements. These models are typically set up to find the least-cost portfolio of assets that meet specified requirements, and model decisions can include both investments in new, and retirement of existing, resources. The scenarios explored by CEMs can help inform strategies for meeting future electricity and energy needs under a range of future conditions. However, projections can differ between models, sometimes dramatically, for a seemingly similar scenario. Differences in model coverage, structure, and input assumptions contribute to the range of model outcomes. Understanding what drives the biggest differences in model outputs improves model insights and provides context for interpreting results. This summary presents analysis that was performed through a forum of analysts who own, update, and apply CEMs, as well as nuclear experts from national laboratories, industry, and the research community. The following sections describe methods, results, and findings from an original, innovative inter-model comparison that provides insights into what drives the greatest differences in nuclear retirement and deployment projections across models and a range of technology, market, and policy conditions.

capacity expansion model↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fundamentals of Polymer Crystallization in Laser Powder Bed Fusion for New Material Screening

Although laser powder bed fusion (PBF/LB) was one of the first industrially viable additive manufacturing (AM) methods for end-use part production, polyamides remain grossly dominant at both the commercial- and researchscale. The research community continues to develop and refine “rapid screening” methods for evaluating the suitability of a new polymer for PBF/LB. The so-called “SLS Process Window,” which is the difference between melting and crystallization temperature measured at 10 K min-1 as originally outlined in the patent literature, is perhaps the most often reported screening method. Although perhaps appropriate as part of a larger study, the simplistic guidelines put forth by the “SLS Process Window” are not sufficiently scientifically rigorous to understand how crystallization kinetics affects successful 3D printing. The common understanding of the SLS Process Window omits details from published theories of polymer crystallization. as evidenced by published assumptions and methods in PBF/LB process modeling papers. The authors explain polymer crystallization in the PBF/LB process context and propose replacing the “process window” with crystallization halftime and physical gelation for new material screening. These measurements better represent behavior critical for ensuring a lengthy coexistence of solid powder and molten polymer affecting warp-free parts.

CHATHAM, CAMDEN A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Rise of Intelligent Materials Science: Unleashing the Power of Machine Intelligence in Characterization

Machine intelligence has the potential to revolutionize materials science, enabling autonomous synthesis, self-driving characterization, and accelerated modeling. However, despite the promise, successful implementation of these methods in day-to-day research remains a challenge. This talk will delve into the reasons behind this, exploring how truly intelligent experiments are hindered by opaque experiment control, a lack of domain-specific models, and human-centric design. Through a focus on the characterization of next-generation microelectronics and energy storage materials, I will share insights from both successful and failed attempts to implement machine intelligence. We will then explore the next steps necessary to unlock the full potential of machine intelligence in materials science, creating a future where intelligent systems work seamlessly alongside researchers to drive innovation and discovery.

autonomous↗

DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Human Vision: Exploring Materials with Machine Intelligence

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning for Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Storm Events

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and Characterization of Superconductor Diodes

In the era of modern computing, quantum bits (or qubits) are extensively researched due to their ability to perform computations exponentially faster than classical computers. One promising method for synthesizing qubits on a macroscopic scale is through superconductor diodes (SDs). Unfortunately, SDs are currently limited by their dependence on extremely low temperatures (T ≈ 0K), which restricts their practical usability at larger scales. To address this limitation, researchers are exploring new materials and methods to identify superconductors with higher critical temperatures. My research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) focuses on synthesizing and characterizing superconductor diodes to determine their efficiency for quantum computing applications. Bismuth thin films were synthesized with magnetron sputtering with separate thicknesses which provides information on methods to alter their resistivity. Bismuth was characterized as the topological insulator used in the diode, and its resistivity was measured using a standard four-point probe technique with 1 mA current. Bismuth (99.99% pure) was then purified in a tubular furnace at 400C to use within a Josephson junction as a topological insulator. Niobium and Tantalum Josephson junctions were then synthesized, and they were characterized using a lock-in amplifier four-point probe technique. Materials such as niobium and tantalum are used in high-entropy alloy research, which is a relatively new class of material that has little research within the superconductor diode community, yet the current research shows promise. We anticipate that testing high-entropy superconductors will reveal crucial factors, potentially leading to the development of high-temperature superconductors in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

AlgaeOrtho, a bioinformatics tool for processing ortholog inference results in algae

Introduction: Microalgae constitute a prominent feedstock for producing biofuels and biochemicals by virtue of their prolific reproduction, high bioproduct accumulation, and the ability to grow in brackish and saline water. However, naturally occurring wild type algal strains are rarely optimal for industrial use; therefore, bioengineering of algae is necessary to generate superior performing strains that can address production challenges in industrial settings, particularly the bioenergy and bioproduct sectors. One of the crucial steps in this process is deciding on a bioengineering target: namely, which gene/protein to differentially express. These targets are often orthologs which are defined as genes/proteins originating from a common ancestor in divergent species. Although bioinformatics tools for the identification of protein orthologs already exist, processing the output from such tools is nontrivial, especially for a researcher with little or no bioinformatics experience. Methods: The present study introduces AlgaeOrtho, a user-friendly tool that builds upon the SonicParanoid orthology inference tool (based on an algorithm that identifies potential protein orthologs based on amino acid sequences) and the PhycoCosm database from JGI (Joint Genome Institute) to help researchers identify orthologs of their proteins of interest in multiple diverse algal species. Results: The output of this application includes a table of the putative orthologs of their protein of interest, a heatmap showing sequence similarity (%), and an unrooted tree of the putative protein orthologs. Notably, the tool would be instrumental in identifying novel bioengineering targets in different algal strains, including targets in not-fully annotated algal species, since it does not depend on existing protein annotations. We tested AlgaeOrtho using three case studies, for which orthologs of proteins relevant to bioengineering targets, were identified from diverse algal species, demonstrating its ease of use and utility for bioengineering researchers. Discussion: This tool is unique in the protein ortholog identification space as it can visualize putative orthologs, as desired by the user, across several algal species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Results from a multi-laboratory ocean metaproteomic intercomparison: effects of LC-MS acquisition and data analysis procedures

Metaproteomics is an increasingly popular methodology that provides information regarding the metabolic functions of specific microbial taxa and has potential for contributing to ocean ecology and biogeochemical studies. A blinded multi-laboratory intercomparison was conducted to assess comparability and reproducibility of taxonomic and functional results and their sensitivity to methodological variables. Euphotic zone samples from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) in the North Atlantic Ocean collected by in situ pumps and the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Clio were distributed with a paired metagenome, and one-dimensional (1D) liquid chromatographic data-dependent acquisition mass spectrometry analysis was stipulated. Analysis of mass spectra from seven laboratories through a common bioinformatic pipeline identified a shared set of 1056 proteins from 1395 shared peptide constituents. Quantitative analyses showed good reproducibility: pairwise regressions of spectral counts between laboratories yielded R 2 values averaged 0.62±0.11, and a Sørensen similarity analysis of the top 1000 proteins revealed 70 %–80 % similarity between laboratory groups. Taxonomic and functional assignments showed good coherence between technical replicates and different laboratories. A bioinformatic intercomparison study, involving 10 laboratories using eight software packages, successfully identified thousands of peptides within the complex metaproteomic datasets, demonstrating the utility of these software tools for ocean metaproteomic research. Lessons learned and potential improvements in methods were described. Future efforts could examine reproducibility in deeper metaproteomes, examine accuracy in targeted absolute quantitation analyses, and develop standards for data output formats to improve data interoperability. Together, these results demonstrate the reproducibility of metaproteomic analyses and their suitability for microbial oceanography research, including integration into global-scale ocean surveys and ocean biogeochemical models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Procedure Parsing: A Method for Parsing Handwritten Documents into Computer-Based Procedures

The nuclear industry is heavily procedure driven, where almost everything has a step-by-step instruction that is expected to be followed in detail. Historically, these procedures were printed on paper copies. Recently, the industry transitioned towards electronic copies (i.e., PDFs on tablets). One major drive for this transition is the introduction of human error and loss of situation awareness when using paper copies. However, electronic copies of documents inherently have the same error traps as their paper cousins. Therefore, there is an increased interest in a way to utilize the information in the step-by-step guidance, but to present it in a dynamic manner that guides the user and adapts to any encountered conditions. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory propose a flexible, automated method based on document parsing and augmented by natural language processing (NLP) techniques, to address these shortcomings and capitalize on these recent advancements in machine learning. The proposed method provides a cost-effective solution for computer-assisted procedure parsing of hand-written control room procedures, originally authored in Word or PDF formats, into instructions that can be displayed as computer-based procedures (CBP) in a modern graphical user interface. The researchers devised, implemented and demonstrated the Operating Procedure Extender for Novel Systems (OPENS) method in 2020. The key to OPENS is to map the original procedure text into a context-free grammar, tying content to equipment, locations, and other steps, actions, etc. This formal grammar is then used to isolate and define keywords and actions verbs, such as “measure” or “evaluate” and tie them to specific equipment referenced within that step or located in other steps, substeps, actions, subactions and tables throughout the procedure. OPENS generates an abstract syntax tree from the document which it uses to store a copy of this information in the open-standard, machine-readable and human-readable file formats XML and JSON. The XML is useful to preserve the relational aspects of the procedure for referencing tables and branching information so the user can be directed to the next appropriate active step based on the values entered for that step and previous steps. The JSON is useful for storing and exchanging data objects used to track responses to previous steps and state changes in simulated environments. In future iterations, these formats can also be used for storing more detailed information about input during plant operation or simulation. The techniques the researcher developed could further be improved by integration of recent advancements in machine learning. NLP methods could standardize documents, correct for grammatical error, and provide automated semantic validation. The researcher expects that self-supervised techniques applied to collections of natural language instructions could strengthen the model with broader context. All these methods together give us a practical way to automatically extract protocols from documents and user interactions, empowering researchers, procedure writers and nuclear operators while moving the industry forward.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Science, Engineering, and Validation of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage

Scenarios to stabilize global climate and meet international climate agreements require rapid reductions in human carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, often augmented by substantial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. While some ocean-based removal techniques show potential promise as part of a broader CDR and decarbonization portfolio, no marine approach is ready yet for deployment at scale because of gaps in both scientific and engineering knowledge. Marine CDR spans a wide range of biotic and abiotic methods, with both common and technique-specific limitations. Further targeted research is needed on CDR efficacy, permanence, and additionality as well as on robust validation methods—measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification—that are essential to demonstrate the safe removal and long-term storage of CO 2 . Engineering studies are needed on constraints including scalability, costs, resource inputs, energy demands, and technical readiness. Research on possible co-benefits, ocean acidification effects, environmental and social impacts, and governance is also required.

climate mitigation↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput Li plating quantification for fast-charging battery design

Fast charging of most commercial lithium-ion batteries is limited due to fear of lithium plating on the graphite anode, which is difficult to detect and poses considerable safety risk. In this report we demonstrate the power of simple, accessible and high-throughput cycling techniques to quantify irreversible Li plating spanning data from over 200 cells. We first observe the effects of energy density, charge rate, temperature and state of charge on lithium plating, use the results to refine a mature physics-based electrochemical model and provide an interpretable empirical equation for predicting the plating onset state of charge. We then explore the reversibility of lithium plating and its connection to electrolyte design for preventing irreversible Li accumulation. Finally, we design a method to quantify in situ Li plating for commercially relevant graphite|LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) cells and compare with results from the experimentally convenient Li|graphite configuration. The hypotheses and abundant data herein were generated primarily with equipment universal to the battery researcher, encouraging further development of innovative testing methods and data processing that enable rapid battery engineering.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Why the US Needs an Enduring Plutonium Critical Assembly

Jezebel (operated from 1954-1977) has been the primary experiment for fast 239 Pu nuclear data validation for the last 70 years. Validation has included not only k eff , but also spectral indicies, Rossi-α, reactivity coefficients, and neutron leakage spectra. While this has been incredibly valuable to the community, there are three major issues. The first issue is that documentation on many of these experiments were lacking, leading to large uncertainties or (even worse) incorrect assumptions. The second issue is that while there have been many advances in research, there is no way to test those new advances today. The last issue is that since the assembly only operated for 23 years (and at time when 30 other critical assemblies were operating at the same facility and nuclear weapons testing was occurring), there were limited opportunities to observe how any system parameters changed as a function of time. Note that this work is not suggesting that a "Jezebel re placement" used for a limited experiment campaign would have great value. A new enduring (100 year target) plutonium (Pu) assembly with simple geometry and low uncertainties, however, would be extremely valuable. Such a capability would have a transformative impact on many research areas including nuclear data validation, analytical methods validation, dosimetry, reactor kinetics, and materials. The need for a new plutonium assembly is not new: it has been in the DOE Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) Mission and Vision for over 10 years and was also the top priority established at the 2022 National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) Futures meeting. This work will discuss how such a new capability would help ensure that the US retains international leadership in plutonium research. Last, a brief overview of Lilith, a project aimed to design a new enduring plutonium assembly for operation at the NCERC will be given.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring life’s hidden majority: microbial dark matter symposium highlights

The Microbial Dark Matter Symposium held on August 28–29, 2025, in Laguna Beach, Orange County, CA, convened a multidisciplinary group of scientists to address the vast unknowns in microbial life—from uncultured taxa and uncharacterized proteins to elusive viruses and spacefaring microbes. Set against a scenic coastal backdrop, the symposium highlighted advances in single-cell genomics, proximity ligation sequencing, and artificial intelligence-ready bioinformatics, while also probing the limits of microbial persistence, metabolism, and ecological distribution. Sessions explored microbial dark matter from multiple dimensions: cultivability, where new strategies are enabling recovery of elusive microbes; functional ambiguity, where metagenomic dark zones are illuminated by computational annotation; and genomic representation, where single-cell methods bridge gaps left by shotgun community sequencing. Researchers shared breakthroughs in identifying atmospheric microbiomes, “dark oxygen” production in groundwater ecosystems, and microbial survival on the International Space Station. The symposium emphasized integration of methods, disciplines, and ecosystems, advancing a collective push to illuminate the microbial dark matter on Earth and beyond. By highlighting emerging tools, pressing questions, and cross-domain insights, the symposium underscored the need for collaborative, open, and adaptive approaches to study the microbial unknown. The meeting marks a pivotal moment in microbiology, where cultivating knowledge of the uncultivated promises transformative understanding of life, everywhere.

Podar, Mircea [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000327760205)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy

Risk analysis methods may be qualitative, semi-quantitative, or quantitative; adopt probabilistic and statistical theories; and implement concepts from core disciplines including operations research, reliability engineering, systems engineering, and applied mathematics. These methods continue to develop and evolve and have successfully been applied to address various homeland security mission challenges in recent years. The objective of this book is to: 1) highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions, and 2) describe case studies from academia, government, and industry that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within each of the DHS missions.

national security, risk assessment, risk managemen↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Dosimetry Method for Small Animal Irradiators Using 3D-printed Mouse Phantoms and Alanine Dosimeters

Abstract Accurate dosimetry is a crucial component of small animal and preclinical irradiation studies. Various dosimetry options are available but fail to characterize complex geometries and variable energy spectra of modern x-ray irradiators accurately. These options also lack national/international standards of recognition. This paper presents a novel dosimetry system, Dosequate, which uses murine phantoms embedded with alanine dosimeters and paired with x-ray energy spectra corrections to deliver consistent and accurate dosimetry measurements. This study compares Dosequate measurements against a Precision X-RAD 320 internal ion chamber and the treatment planning system of an Xstrahl Small Animal Radiation Research Platform. Results demonstrate the accuracy and reproducibility of the Dosequate system, highlighting its potential for standardizing dosimetry in preclinical research throughout the industry. Results demonstrate the accuracy and reproducibility of the Dosequate system, highlighting its potential for standardizing dosimetry in preclinical research throughout the industry. The Dosequate dosimetry method provides a robust and standardized approach for measuring absorbed dose in small animal irradiators. Its accuracy, reproducibility, and ability to account for complex irradiation geometries make it a valuable tool for preclinical research. This system has the potential to significantly improve the intercomparability of studies across different facilities and enhance the reliability of results.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Fish Identification from Sonar Data: CRADA 481 [Abstract only]

To help solve the challenges of hydropower energy production related to the potential for eel injury and mortality from passage through hydropower turbines, we will develop a deep learning method for identifying migrating eels from imaging sonar. This project continues with a prior project conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in FY2018-2019. The proposed method employs Convolution Neural Network (CNN), a powerful deep learning method for image classification, to distinguish between images of eels and non-eel moving objects. We propose to collect more laboratory data and add more existing field data to train a powerful deep learning model. In addition to eels and sticks as classified in previous studies, we will add images containing several non-eel fish species and macrophyte mats to the training data. A multi-class classification model will be developed to distinguish these objects. Object detection algorithm will be explored and developed to locate and identify multiple objects in each sonar frame. Motion analysis will be performed to track the movement of objects in sonar video clips. We will also improve the data conversion algorithm so that it can read in both DIDSON and ARIS (both are imaging sonars developed by Sound Metrics Corp) data files and convert them to images with comparably high resolution, regardless of the varying detection ranges in different environments. The developed algorithms will be packaged as a software with a graphic user interface. The software will be evaluated by external collaborators in the field. The developed framework can be generalized for automatic monitoring of fish passage and migration using other imaging sonars like ARIS and will benefit the design and operation of ecologically friendly hydroelectric projects. The developed wavelet and CNN model configuration parameters can potentially be transferred to lamprey detection in similar riverine environments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Nevin, Rebecca↗