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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predictions of core plasma performance for the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is designed to be a high-field, medium-size tokamak aimed at achieving net energy gain with Ion Cyclotron Range-of-Frequencies (ICRF) as its primary auxiliary heating mechanism. Empirical predictions with conservative physics indicate that SPARC baseline plasmas would reach Q~11, well above its mission objective of Q>2. To build confidence that SPARC will be successful, physics-based integrated modeling has also been performed. The TRANSP code coupled with the theory-based TGLF turbulence model and EPED predictions for pedestal stability find that Q~9 is attainable in standard H-mode operation and confirms Q>2 operation is feasible even with adverse assumptions. In this analysis, ion cyclotron waves are simulated with the full wave TORIC code and alpha heating is modeled with the Monte-Carlo fast ion NUBEAM module. Detailed analysis of expected turbulence regimes with linear and nonlinear CGYRO simulations is also presented, demonstrating that profile predictions with the TGLF reduced model are in reasonable agreement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Platinum Surface Oxide and Oxygen Reduction Reaction Kinetics during Transient Fuel Cell Operation

Pt surface oxide coverage (POC) and Oxygen Reduction Reaction (ORR) were measured under a range of operating conditions in a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC). Sensitivity analysis suggests that adsorption of sulfonate groups of the ionomer on the Pt surface plays an important role in POC and ORR kinetics. Although both Pt oxide growth and ORR activity decay follow a logarithm of time behavior, it is found that ORR kinetics are affected by at least two different types of Pt oxide. A semi-empirical ORR kinetic model is proposed taking into account the effect of ionomer and Pt oxide types. The model is capable of providing a quantitative prediction of POC and ORR activity over a range of potential, temperature, relative humidity, and time that is relevant to normal PEMFC operation.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nucleon-nucleon potentials from Δ-full chiral effective-field-theory and implications

We closely investigate NN potentials based upon the Δ-full version of chiral effective-field-theory. We find that recently constructed NN potentials of this kind, which (when applied together with three-nucleon forces) were presented as predicting accurate binding energies and radii for a range of nuclei from A = 16 to A = 132 and providing accurate equations of state for nuclear matter, yield a χ 2 /datum of 60 for the reproduction of the pp data below 100 MeV laboratory energy. This χ 2 is more than three times what the Hamada-Johnston potential of the year of 1962 achieved already some 60 years ago. We perceive this historical fact as concerning in view of the current emphasis on precision. We are able to trace the very large χ 2 as well as the apparent success of the potentials in nuclear structure to unrealistic predictions for P-wave states, in which the Δ-full next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) potentials are off by up to 40 times the NNLO truncation errors. In fact, we show that the worse the description of the P-wave states, the better the predictions in nuclear structure. Thus, these potentials cannot be seen as the solution to the outstanding problems in current microscopic nuclear structure physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach to predict thermal expansion of complex oxides

Although it is of scientific and practical importance, the state-of-the-art of predicting the thermal expansion of oxides over broad temperature and composition ranges by physics-based atomistic simulations is currently limited to qualitative agreements. We present an emerging machine learning (ML) approach to accurately predict the thermal expansion of cubic oxides with a dataset consisting of experimentally measured lattice parameters while using the metal cation polyhedron and temperature as descriptors. High-fidelity ML models that can accurately predict temperature- and composition-dependent lattice parameters of cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansions have been successfully trained. The ML-predicted thermal expansions of oxides not included in the training dataset have shown good agreement with available experiments. The limitations of the current approach and challenges to go beyond cubic oxides with isotropic thermal expansion are also briefly discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Relevance of Long-Range Forces for Crystal Nucleation in Water

Understanding nucleation from aqueous solutions is of fundamental importance in a multitude of fields, ranging from materials science to biophysics. The complex solvent-mediated interactions in aqueous solutions hamper the development of a simple physical picture, elucidating the roles of different interactions in nucleation processes. In this study, we make use of three complementary techniques to disentangle the role played by short- and long-range interactions in solvent-mediated nucleation. Specifically, the first approach we utilize is the local molecular field (LMF) theory to renormalize long-range Coulomb electrostatics. Second, we use well-tempered metadynamics to speed up rare events governed by short-range interactions. Third, the deep learning-based State Predictive Information Bottleneck approach is employed in analyzing the reaction coordinate of the nucleation processes obtained from the LMF treatment coupled with well-tempered metadynamics. We find that the two-step nucleation mechanism can largely be captured by the short-range interactions, while the long-range interactions further contribute to the stability of the primary crystal state under ambient conditions. Furthermore, by analyzing the reaction coordinate obtained from the combined LMF-metadynamics treatment, we discern the fluctuations on different time scales, highlighting the need for long-range interactions when accounting for metastability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing the Coverage Dependence of Aromatics’ Adsorption through Mean-Field Models

To capture the dominant interactions (surface-mediated and through-space steric) in catalytic hydrodeoxygenation systems, coverage-dependent mean-field models of aromatic adsorption are developed on Pt(111) and Ru(0001). We derive three key insights from this work: (1) we can universally apply mean-field models to capture the coverage-dependent behavior of oxygenated aromatics on transition metal surfaces, (2) we can deconvolute surface-mediated and throughspace steric interactions from the mean-field model, and (3) we can develop relatively accurate models that predict the adsorption energy of aromatics on transition metal surfaces for the full coverage range using the work function at lowest modeled coverage. In conclusion, our approach enables the rapid prediction of coverage-dependent behavior of oxygenated aromatics on transition metal surfaces, reducing the computational cost associated with these studies by an order of magnitude.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stabilization of the 81-channel coherent beam combination using machine learning

We develop a rapidly converging algorithm for stabilizing a large channel-count diffractive optical coherent beam combination. An 81-beam combiner is controlled by a novel, machine-learning based, iterative method to correct the optical phases, operating on an experimentally calibrated numerical model. A neural-network is trained to detect phase errors based on interference pattern recognition of uncombined beams adjacent to the combined one. Due to the non-uniqueness of solutions in the full space of possible phases, the network is trained within a limited phase perturbation/error range. This also reduces the number of samples needed for training. Simulations have proven that the network can converge in one step for small phase perturbations. When the trained neural-network is applied to a realistic case of 360 degree full range, an iterative scheme exploits random walking at the beginning, with the accuracy of prediction on phase feedback direction, to allow the neural-network to step into the training range for fast convergence. This neural-network-based iterative method of phase detection works tens of times faster than the commonly used stochastic parallel gradient descent approach (SPGD) using a single-detector and random dither when both are tested with random phase perturbations.

Wang, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dark matter from a conformal Dark Sector

We consider theories in which a dark sector is described by a Conformal Field Theory (CFT) over a broad range of energy scales. A coupling of the dark sector to the Standard Model breaks conformal invariance. While weak at high energies, the breaking grows in the infrared, and at a certain energy scale the theory enters a confined (hadronic) phase. One of the hadronic excitations can play the role of dark matter. We study a “Conformal Freeze-In” cosmological scenario, in which the dark sector is populated through its interactions with the SM at temperatures when it is conformal. In this scenario, the dark matter relic density is determined by the CFT data, such as the dimension of the CFT operator coupled to the Standard Model. We show that this simple and highly predictive model of dark matter is phenomenologically viable. The observed relic density is reproduced for a variety of SM operators (“portals”) coupled to the CFT, and the resulting models are consistent with observational constraints. The mass of the COFI dark matter candidate is predicted to be in the keV-MeV range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nonempirical Prediction of the Length-Dependent Ionization Potential in Molecular Chains

The ionization potential of molecular chains is well-known to be a tunable nanoscale property that exhibits clear quantum confinement effects. State-of-the-art methods can accurately predict the ionization potential in the small molecule limit and in the solid-state limit, but for intermediate, nanosized systems prediction of the evolution of the electronic structure between the two limits is more difficult. Recently, optimal tuning of range-separated hybrid functionals has emerged as a highly accurate method for predicting ionization potentials. This was first achieved for molecules using the ionization potential theorem (IPT) and more recently extended to solid-state systems, based on an ansatz that generalizes the IPT to the removal of charge from a localized Wannier function. Here, we study one-dimensional molecular chains of increasing size, from the monomer limit to the infinite polymer limit using this approach. By comparing our results with other localization-based methods and where available with experiment, we demonstrate that Wannier-localization-based optimal tuning is highly accurate in predicting ionization potentials for any chain length, including the nanoscale regime.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

When do short-range atomistic machine-learning models fall short?

In this work, we explore the role of long-range interactions in atomistic machine-learning models by analyzing the effects on fitting accuracy, isolated cluster properties, and bulk thermodynamic properties. Such models have become increasingly popular in molecular simulations given their ability to learn highly complex and multi-dimensional interactions within a local environment; however, many of them fundamentally lack a description of explicit long-range interactions. In order to provide a well-defined benchmark system with precisely known pairwise interactions, we chose as the reference model a flexible version of the Extended Simple Point Charge (SPC/E) water model. Our analysis shows that while local representations are sufficient for predictions of the condensed liquid phase, the short-range nature of machine-learning models falls short in representing cluster and vapor phase properties. These findings provide an improved understanding of the role of long-range interactions in machine learning models and the regimes where they are necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a New Chemical Mechanism for 2-Amino-2-methyl-1-propanol in a Reactive Environment from CSIRO Smog Chamber Experiments

Amines are considered as an emerging class of atmospheric pollutants that are of great importance to atmospheric chemistry and new particle formation. As a typical amine, 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) is one of the proposed solvents for capturing CO 2 from flue gas streams in amine-based post-combustion CO 2 capture plants, and it is expected to result in AMP emission and secondary products formation in the atmosphere. However, the current knowledge of its atmospheric chemistry and kinetics is poorly understood, particularly in a reactive environment. As such, in this work we used the CSIRO smog chamber to study the photo-oxidation of AMP in the presence of VOCs–NOx surrogate mixtures over a range of initial amine concentrations. O 3 formation was significantly inhibited when AMP was added to the surrogate VOCs–NOx mixtures, implying that AMP could alter known atmospheric chemical reaction pathways and the prevailing reactivity. Simultaneously, a large amount of AMP-derived secondary aerosol was formed, with a considerably high aerosol mass yield (i.e. ratio of aerosol formed to reacted AMP) of 1.06±0.20. Based on updated knowledge of its kinetics, oxidation pathways and product yields, we have developed a new mechanism (designated as CSIAMP-19) and integrated into the Carbon Bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism, and evaluated it against available smog chamber data. Compared with the existing AMP mechanism (designated as CarterAMP-08), the modified CB6 with CSIAMP-19 mechanism improves prediction against AMP–VOCs–NOx experiments across a range of initial AMP concentrations, within ±10% model error for gross ozone production. Our results contribute to scientific understanding of AMP photochemistry and to the development of the chemical mechanism of other amines. The updated AMP chemical reactions scheme can be further embedded into the chemical transport model for regional modelling scenarios where AMP-related emissions are of concern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts

Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined if the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that: 1) soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, 2) this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and 3) transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. Here, these geographic patterns in plant population x microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upsampling Monte Carlo reactor simulation tallies in depleted LWR assemblies fueled with LEU and HALEU using a convolutional neural network

Simulating nuclear reactor cores at the highest achievable spatial and energy resolution is critical in modeling these systems accurately. Increasing the resolution, however, can dramatically increase the memory and central processing unit time required to run simulations. A convolutional neural network was shown previously to accurately upsample tally results of simulated light water reactor assemblies fueled with fresh, low enriched uranium. Here, we show that a convolutional neural network can be used to upsample tally results in assemblies containing fresh and depleted fuel enriched from 1.6 to 19.9 atom percent. The network was trained using neutron flux tallies from simulations of light water reactor assemblies with a range of fuel and coolant temperatures and a diverse selection of geometries. Accurate predictions of flux tallies are possible even on test assemblies with geometries and burnup levels well outside the range of those present in the training and validation data. The network improves the data density by a factor of 8 over a broad range of light water reactor assemblies while incurring insignificant additional computational cost to a Monte Carlo simulation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗