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At least 577 records · Page 32

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory

One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Conditional Karhunen-Loève expansion for uncertainty quantification and active learning in partial differential equation models

We use a conditional Karhunen-Lo` eve (KL) model to quantify and reduce uncertainty in a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) problem with partially-known space-dependent coefficient, Y (x). We assume that a small number of Y (x) measurements are available and model Y (x) with a KL expansion. We achieve reduction in uncertainty by conditioning the KL expansion coefficients on measurements. We consider two approaches for conditioning the KL expansion: In Approach 1, we condition the KL model first and then truncate it. In Approach 2, we first truncate the KL expansion and then condition it. We employ the conditional KL expansion together with Monte Carlo and sparse grid collocation methods to compute the moments of the solution of the SPDE problem. Uncertainty of the problem is further reduced by adaptively selecting additional observation locations using two active learning methods. Method 1 minimizes the variance of the PDE coefficient, while Method 2 minimizes the variance of the solution of the PDE. We demonstrate that conditioning leads to dimension reduction of the KL representation of Y (x). For a linear diffusion SPDE with uncertain log-normal coefficient, we show that Approach 1 provides a more accurate approximation of the conditional log-normal coefficient and solution of the SPDE than Approach 2 for the same number of random dimensions in a conditional KL expansion. Furthermore, Approach 2 provides a good estimate for the number of terms of the truncated KL expansion of the conditional field of Approach 1. Finally, we demonstrate that active learning based on Method 2 is more efficient for uncertainty reduction in the SPDE’s states (i.e., it leads to a larger reduction of the variance) than active learning using Method 2.

Conditioned Karhunen-Lo` eve expanion, machine lea↗

The Influence of C(sp 3 )H–Selenium Interactions on the 77 Se NMR Quantification of the π‐Accepting Properties of Carbenes

Abstract Selenium NMR has become a standard tool for scaling the π‐accepting character of carbenes. Herein, we highlight that non‐classical hydrogen bonding (NCHB), likely resulting from hyperconjugation, can play a significant role in the carbene–selenium 77 Se NMR chemical shift, thus triggering a non‐linear behavior of the Se‐Scale.

Junor, Glen P.↗

Theoretical, Solid‐State, and Solution Quantification of the Hydrogen Bond‐Enhanced Halogen Bond

Abstract Proximal noncovalent forces are commonplace in natural systems and understanding the consequences of their juxtaposition is critical. This paper experimentally quantifies for the first time a Hydrogen Bond‐Enhanced Halogen Bond (HBeXB) without the complexities of protein structure or preorganization. An HBeXB is a halogen bond that has been strengthened when the halogen donor simultaneously accepts a hydrogen bond. Our theoretical studies suggest that electron‐rich halogen bond donors are strengthened most by an adjacent hydrogen bond. Furthermore, stronger hydrogen bond donors enhance the halogen bond the most. X‐ray crystal structures of halide complexes (X − =Br − , I − ) reveal that HBeXBs produce shorter halogen bonds than non‐hydrogen bond analogues. 19 F NMR titrations with chloride highlight that the HBeXB analogue exhibits stronger binding. Together, these results form the foundation for future studies concerning hydrogen bonds and halogen bonds in close proximity.

Decato, Daniel A.↗

The Influence of C(sp 3 )H–Selenium Interactions on the 77 Se NMR Quantification of the π-Accepting Properties of Carbenes

Selenium NMR has become a standard tool for scaling the p-accepting character of carbenes. Herein, we highlight that non-classical hydrogen bonding (NCHB), likely resulting from hyperconjugation, can play a significant role in the carbene–selenium 77 Se NMR chemical shift, thus triggering a non-linear behavior of the Se-Scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Theoretical, Solid-State, and Solution Quantification of the Hydrogen Bond-Enhanced Halogen Bond

Proximal noncovalent forces are commonplace in natural systems and understanding the consequences of their juxtaposition is critical. This paper experimentally quantifies for the first time a Hydrogen Bond-Enhanced Halogen Bond (HBeXB) without the complexities of protein structure or preorganization. An HBeXB is a halogen bond that has been strengthened when the halogen donor simultaneously accepts a hydrogen bond. In this work, our theoretical studies suggest that electron-rich halogen bond donors are strengthened most by an adjacent hydrogen bond. Furthermore, stronger hydrogen bond donors enhance the halogen bond the most. X-ray crystal structures of halide complexes (X - =Br - , I - ) reveal that HBeXBs produce shorter halogen bonds than non-hydrogen bond analogues. 19 F NMR titrations with chloride highlight that the HBeXB analogue exhibits stronger binding. Together, these results form the foundation for future studies concerning hydrogen bonds and halogen bonds in close proximity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Propane Activation on Pt Electrodes at Room Temperature: Quantification of Adsorbate Identity and Coverage

Abstract C−H bond activation is the first step in manufacturing chemical products from readily available light alkane feedstock and typically proceeds via carbon‐intensive thermal processes. The ongoing emphasis on decarbonization via electrification motivates low‐temperature electrochemical alternatives that could lead to sustainable chemicals production. Platinum (Pt) electrocatalysts have shown activity towards reacting alkanes; however, little is known about propane electrocatalytic activation and conditions suitable for enabling selective oxidation to valuable products. Herein, we utilize a combination of electrochemical mass spectrometry (ECMS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to elucidate the potential dependence of propane activation on Pt electrocatalysts. Results show a strong dependence of adsorption on the applied potential in room‐temperature aqueous acidic electrolyte, with a maximum coverage of propane‐derived adsorbates at 0.30 V vs RHE. Using charge deconvolution and deuterated experiments, the mechanism of adsorption was elucidated, and C 3 H 2 * was determined as the average dehydrogenated propane‐derived adsorbate species. DFT calculations further corroborate these results, showing that the formation of deeply dehydrogenated species is energetically accessible at room temperature. The combined theoretical and experimental findings yield insights for selective activation of paraffinic C−H bonds at room temperature, aqueous conditions—a critical step towards decarbonized chemical manufacturing.

Chemistry↗

Quantification of Brønsted Acid Sites in Zeolites by Water Desorption Thermogravimetry

The many studies that have been conducted on water adsorption on zeolites were carried out in “adsorption” mode, from adsorption isotherms or single-point measurements, with the samples being first degassed at high temperature, and then exposed to water vapor at variable partial pressure. Here, we report Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) studies of HZSM-5 saturated with water at room temperature, thus studying water adsorption in “desorption” mode. In this work, TGA was used to ascertain the amount of water remaining as a function of the pretreatment temperature, and to identify the temperature at which one water molecule per framework Al atom persists. Solid-state 1H NMR spectroscopy, combined with molecular modeling, provided evidence for water molecules hydrogen bonded to Brønsted acid sites and formation of oxonium species for distinct water per framework Al atom. TGA is shown to be a simple and expeditious technique to measure the number of Brønsted acid sites in aluminosilicate zeolites, with advantages over the traditional methods of IR or TPD of dangerous adsorbed ammonia or pyridine. TGA of adsorbed water also provides information on the water clusters formed at the acid sites of HZSM-5, which are proportional to the number of acid sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantification of microcystin production and biodegradation rates in the western basin of Lake Erie

Abstract Cyanobacterial biomass forecasts currently cannot predict the concentrations of microcystin, one of the most ubiquitous cyanotoxins that threaten human and wildlife health globally. Mechanistic insights into how microcystin production and biodegradation by heterotrophic bacteria change spatially and throughout the bloom season can aid in toxin concentration forecasts. We quantified microcystin production and biodegradation during two growth seasons in two western Lake Erie sites with different physicochemical properties commonly plagued by summer Microcystis blooms. Microcystin production rates were greater with elevated nutrients than under ambient conditions and were highest nearshore during the initial phases of the bloom, and production rates were lower in later bloom phases. We examined biodegradation rates of the most common and toxic microcystin by adding extracellular stable isotope‐labeled microcystin‐LR (1 μ g L −1 ), which remained stable in the abiotic treatment (without bacteria) with minimal adsorption onto sediment, but strongly decreased in all unaltered biotic treatments, suggesting biodegradation. Greatest biodegradation rates (highest of −8.76 d −1 , equivalent to the removal of 99.98% in 18 h) were observed during peak bloom conditions, while lower rates were observed with lower cyanobacteria biomass. Cell‐specific nitrogen incorporation from microcystin‐LR by nanoscale imaging mass spectrometry showed that a small percentage of the heterotrophic bacterial community actively degraded microcystin‐LR. Microcystin production and biodegradation rates, combined with the microcystin incorporation by single cells, suggest that microcystin predictive models could be improved by incorporating toxin production and biodegradation rates, which are influenced by cyanobacterial bloom stage (early vs. late bloom), nutrient availability, and bacterial community composition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗