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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of coupled air–sea interaction on extreme East Asian summer monsoon simulation in CMIP5 models

Abstract In this study, the relationship between the ability to simulate air–sea interactions over the western North Pacific (WNP), and to reproduce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), were investigated by comparing the performances of several global climate models (GCMs). High ranked in air–sea interaction simulation (HRA) and low ranked in air–sea interaction simulation (LRA) models were selected, according to their performance in simulating relations between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the WNP, from the ensemble of models that participated in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, CMIP5). Compared with CMIP3 models, CMIP5 models exhibited improved simulations of the distinctive air–sea interaction over the WNP, namely, the strong atmospheric forcing on the ocean. Among CMIP5 models, HRA models, which reproduced intrinsic negative correlations between precipitation and SST over the WNP, could simulate the extreme EASM better than LRA models. In particular, HRA models generated a more realistic spatial distribution of the extreme EASM compared with LRA models. The defects of the LRA models resulted from distorted synoptic fields, including underestimated geopotential height and overestimated low‐level wind over the WNP, inducing unrealistic moisture supply and convection due to the exaggerated SST forcing. In contrast, reasonable air–sea interactions represented in HRA models lead to realistic synoptic fields over the WNP, and proper simulation of the extreme EASM.

Kim, Taehyung↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Customizing NASA's Earth Science Research Products for addressing MENA Water Challenges

As projected by IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century the Middle East North Mrica (MENA) region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. In late 2011, the World Bank, USAID and NASA have joined hands to establishing integrated, modem, up to date NASA developed capabilities for various countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making for societal benefits. The main focus of this undertaking is to address the most pressing societal issues which can be modeled and solved by utilizing NASA Earth Science remote sensing data products and hydrological models. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. NASA has over fifteen satellites and thirty instruments operating on these space borne platforms and generating over 2000 different science products on a daily basis. Some of these products are soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gasses, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, drought assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Training is an important component under this activity and adequate level of training will be offered to build basic capacity to work with NASA provided data products, models for their future use. This paper provides a comprehensive introduction to NASA's Earth Science mission for understanding the behavior of our home Planet, projecting its health for future generations and applying research results solving societal issues.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2022

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Material Properties of Subsurface Rock Formations Modified by Engineering Mineral Precipitation (Final Scientific and Technical Report)

Montana State University’s (MSU) Energy Research Institute (ERI), in collaboration with the Center for Biofilm Engineering (CBE) and the Department of Civil Engineering (CE), has conducted a long‐term research program aimed at developing a novel cementing agent to address wellbore integrity and reduce the unwanted upward migration of fluids and greenhouse gases from the subsurface. The primary technology developed through this research program is known as ureolysis‐induced calcite precipitation (UICP), which harnesses bio‐chemical processes to precipitate calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). The same general process can also be called microbially-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) when microbes provide the process-catalyzing urease enzyme. Both terms are used in this report. Results have conclusively demonstrated that, if properly controlled, UICP can successfully seal fractures, high permeability zones, and compromised cement in the vicinity of wellbores and in nearby caprock. This technology has been successfully deployed to mitigate annular leakage in two test wells and over sixty commercial wells with a 100% success rate. This success in downhole deployment generates consideration of other subsurface applications where UICP could provide benefit to the energy sector, such as shale property modification for unconventional oil and gas recovery. The focus of this research project was to investigate fundamental material and mechanical properties of select shale cores and analyze how these properties change due to engineered mineral precipitation with the intent to control these properties to achieve a range of engineering objectives. Ultimately, the project aim was to identify valuable new areas where application of UICP might contribute to national energy security and environmental protection. The research workplan coupled UICP treatment of core samples, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) characterization, and mechanical strength testing at MSU with advanced X‐Ray micro-computed tomography (μCT) imaging and numerical modeling performed by collaborators at two national laboratories, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). Experimental results are useful to inform geo-mechanical models which could be applied to predict mineralized rock formation behavior at field scale. Our findings suggest that NMR and μCT methods to detect and quantify biomineral formation in shale fractures are complementary and consistent with each other. Either could be used to estimate the volume of new mineral formed by UICP in shale fractures. The use of surfactants and guar gum to enhance biomineral precipitation in shale fractures merits further research. UICP can, under some conditions, increase the tensile strength of sealed shale fractures beyond that of the intact shale. These findings demonstrate that continued research in this area may be valuable to understanding and improving shale resource recovery techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Overview of US AID-World Bank-NASA Collaboration to Address Water Management Issues in the MENA Region

The World Bank, USAID and NASA have recently established a joint project to study multiple issues pertaining to water related applications in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region. The main concentration of the project is on utilization of remote sensing data and hydrological models to address crop irrigation and mapping, flood mapping and forecasting, evapotranspiration and drought problems prevalent in this large geographic area. Additional emphases are placed on understanding the climate impact on these areas as well. Per IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century MENA region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. These observations generate multiple products such as soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gases, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed-via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, droUght assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Finally, capacity building is a critical part of this project and NASA will assist in this effort as well.

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

Ly, Vickie↗
DOE OSTI2025

ULTIMATE Phase I project: Development of Niobium-based alloys for Turbine Applications

Current Ni-based alloys used in turbine blade applications are operating at 1100°C which is approximately 90% of the solidus of Ni-based alloys. Further increases in temperature can be achieved only through the use of alloys with higher solidus temperatures such as refractory alloys which include Mo, Nb, W, Ta alloys. Niobium has a unique combination of physical properties that include a high melting point (2468°C), lowest density (8.57 g/cc), and the lowest modulus amongst refractory alloys, a good thermal conductivity that increases from 45 W/mK at room temperature to 62 W/mK at 1093°C, good ductility with fabricability using traditional techniques, high strength, good creep resistance, and general chemical inactivity. Hence niobium alloys offer many advantages for use at the desired temperature of 1300°C. One of the major deterrents to the use of niobium and its alloys at high temperatures is achieving good oxidation resistance. In addition, achieving balanced properties of room temperature strength, ductility, fracture toughness, high temperature strength, and creep resistance required for 1300°C operation at a density of 9 g/cm 3 is extremely challenging since the addition of W which is a potent strengthener increases the density of the alloy. This project seeks to enable the development of a tri-layered turbine blade that can operate continuously at 1300°C with the core of the turbine blade providing good creep resistance, the second layer providing improved oxidation resistance over the core layer, and the third layer being an environmental barrier providing oxidation resistance. The objective of this Phase 1 project was to use computational modeling and advanced characterization tools to develop two classes of Nb alloys which could be used as the core layer and the transition layer. The first class of alloys developed in this project was a Nb-alloy designed to serve as the turbine blade core with excellent room temperature strength, ductility, and high temperature strength and creep resistance required for 1300°C operation. These alloys were designed to contain sufficient solute solution strengthening elements (W, Mo) but constrained by the density of alloy, along with the addition of elements such as Zr, Hf, Ta, C, and N to achieve a combination of primary and secondary carbide precipitation. A total of 38 “creep-resistant” alloys were designed and cast during the duration of the project. Processing techniques were developed to keep the oxygen contents as low as possible with typical oxygen contents less than 250 ppm. One alloy with a density of < 9.5 g/cc was successful in meeting the Phase 2 intermediate project mechanical property milestone requirements of room temperature ductility greater than 1.0%, 1200°C creep strain of less than 3% at 150 MPa and 100 hours in vacuum, and with solidus temperature greater than 1500ᵒC. The second class of alloys was designed to be a Nb-rich alloy with improved oxidation resistance when compared to the core layer and was designed specifically to be compatible with the core layer and the outer environmental barrier coating. This Nb- alloy will be specifically designed to be microstructurally stable at these temperatures when in contact with the core alloy and provide protection against catastrophic failure of the barrier coating. Two alloys were cast and processed but further development was discontinued to focus on the development of the creep resistant alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2009

The GLACE-2 Experiment

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models underestimate the adverse effects of extreme heat on U.S. maize yields

Abstract Efforts to understand and quantify how a changing climate can impact agriculture often rely on bias-corrected and downscaled climate information, making it important to quantify potential biases of this approach. Here, we use a multi-model ensemble of statistically bias-corrected and downscaled climate models, as well as the corresponding parent models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), to drive a statistical panel model of U.S. maize yields that incorporates season-wide measures of temperature and precipitation. We analyze uncertainty in annual yield hindcasts, finding that the CMIP5 models considerably overestimate historical yield variability while the bias-corrected and downscaled versions underestimate the largest weather-induced yield declines. We also find large differences in projected yields and other decision-relevant metrics throughout this century, leaving stakeholders with modeling choices that require navigating trade-offs in resolution, historical accuracy, and projection confidence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Snow4Flow: Concept Paper for a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital-4 Investigation

Snow4Flow was proposed as a large ($30M cost cap) Earth Venture Suborbital (EVS-4) mission in April 2023 and selected as such in April 2024. It will commence pending an Investigation Confirmation Review in 2025. Its airborne and ground campaigns are presently expected to occur in March–May 2027–2029. Quantifying the ongoing retreat of glaciers and ice sheets – and projecting their futures – are major societal concerns due to their contribution to sea-level rise and influence on water resources, natural hazards, and associated socioeconomic impacts. The ability to confidently project glacier and ice-sheet mass change is limited by a severe lack of observations that reliably constrain both their input (Snow) and output (Flow) mass fluxes. Snow4Flow will capture the spatial variability in snow accumulation and ice volume across 4 Northern Hemisphere (NH) regions containing hundreds of rapidly changing glaciers to deliver more reliable, societally relevant projections of land-ice change. This major advance requires spatially extensive radar-sounding surveys that are not possible from orbit (Fig. 1). This EVS-4 mission will drive foundational improvements to NH land-ice boundary conditions and forcing data – including orographic precipitation patterns in alpine environments, ice thickness and subglacial topography – and directly leverages them into state-of-the-art models and projections. Our key science questions are: 1. How will NH glaciers respond to climate change through the end of the 21st century? 2. How does snow accumulation vary in regions of high topographic relief?

Jack W Holt↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scrutinizing entrainment and mass flux closures in shallow cumulus parameterizations using cloud-radar observations and large-eddy simulation (Final Report)

Representing warm, shallow clouds is a challenge for Global Climate Models, which leads to uncertainty in model projections of future climate. Our study was particularly concerned with how climate models represent the effects of shallow, non-precipitating cumulus clouds. Climate models must make certain assumptions when representing low clouds such as how much dry air from outside the cloud is mixed into the warm, moist cloud updraft. This process is called “entrainment” and tends to weaken the cloud updraft and dry out the cloud, compared to a theoretical cloud with no mixing. This project was a joint observational and modeling study to derive estimates of entrainment from field observations and use high-resolution modeling to evaluate the assumptions used in climate model representations of shallow cumulus. Our research took advantage of a wide variety of Department of Energy measurements from fixed climate-monitoring locations over the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the in the Eastern North Atlantic, along with short-term field projects (MAGIC, CAP–MBL, ACE–ENA). During the project, the PI maintained regular collaborations with Department of Energy Scientists at Brookhaven and Argonne National Laboratories. The project funded two students, who both obtained their M.S. in Atmospheric Science and are currently in the Atmospheric Science Ph.D. program. Both were lead authors on research papers funded by this grant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Design and Manufacturing of High-Performance Materials for Turbine Blades

This research demonstrated the concept of carbide precipitation-strengthened refractory high entropy alloys (RHEA). The advantage of a precipitation strengthened alloy is all phases are in thermodynamic equilibrium promoting microstructural stability, and consequently retention of properties at elevated temperatures. Additionally, as with any precipitation strengthened – or age hardened - alloy, components can be heat-treated after manufacturing to manipulate the microstructure and optimize properties for performance. This is an advantage of the precipitation strengthened alloys over composites and ceramics materials, where the microstructure and properties are essentially fixed upon the initial materials manufacturing stage. High throughput (HT), multi-scale computer modeling was used to identifying novel RHEA compositions with desired characteristics needed for precipitation strengthening. Designs were validated by producing small ingots via are melting. The results showed that carbides precipitated and consequently, the strength of the alloys (measured in compression) increased after heat-treatment, which is the desired effect. The project also demonstrated the feasibility of producing articles from RHEA by additive manufacturing (AM). Electron beam melting (EBM) and laser direct energy deposition (L-DED) additive manufacturing methods, were explored with various processing parameters were interrogated for both methods. Sound (crack-free and dense) precipitation strengthened RHEA samples were produced via EDM AM, demonstrating the feasibility of the concept.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1973

Simultaneous observations of auroras from the South Pole Station and of precipitating electrons by Isis 1.

On the basis of the simultaneous observations of auroras from the South Pole and of precipitating electrons by the Isis 1 satellite it is shown that (1) a midday auroral arc (photographed on black and white film) occurs within the cleft (cusp) region projected to the appropriate auroral height along the geomagnetic field; (2) in the evening sector an aurora, observed by Isis 1 and the South Pole all-sky camera, extended for at least 5 hours of local geomagnetic time in the expected position of the auroral oval; and (3) during a period of extreme magnetic quiet, cleftlike electrons were observed just poleward of a narrow region of intense precipitation in the midnight sector. An earth-sun oriented arc was seen at the projected location of the intense electron flux.

Winningham, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

MacroSheds: A synthesis of long-term biogeochemical, hydroclimatic, and geospatial data from small watershed ecosystem studies

The US Federal Government supports hundreds of watershed monitoring efforts from which solute fluxes can be calculated. Although instrumentation and methods vary between studies, the data collected and their motivating questions are remarkably similar. Nevertheless, little effort toward their compilation has previously been made. The MacroSheds project has developed a future-friendly system for harmonizing daily time series of streamflow, precipitation, and solute chemistry from 169+ watersheds, and supplementing each with watershed attributes. Here, we describe the breadth of MacroSheds data, and detail the steps involved in rendering each data product. We provide recommendations for usage and discuss when other datasets might be more suitable. The MacroSheds dataset is an unprecedented resource for watershed science, and for hydrology, as a small-watershed supplement to existing collections of streamflow predictors, like CAMELS and GAGES-II. The MacroSheds platform includes a web dashboard for visualization and an R package for data access and analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Cost-Effective Extraction Process for the Recovery of Heavy and Critical Rare Earth Elements from the Clays and Shales Associated with Coal

The primary objective of the project was to investigate and develop a novel process technology that can extract and concentrate rare earth elements (REE) from coal refuse material, namely shales and clays, to a concentration of greater than or equal to 2% by weight. The extraction and recovery technologies developed in this project leverage the low-cost ion-exchange leaching techniques that are currently applied for commercial heavy rare earth production in South China. In addition to the ion-exchange extraction technology, the project also investigated a novel method of solution concentration and recovery based on ion and/or precipitate flotation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Atmospheric water vapor measurements - Comparison of microwave radiometry and lidar

The NASA/GSFC Crustal Dynamics Project microwave water vapor radiometer (J03) is evaluated in terms of measurements of the integrated precipitable water vapor content of a particular column of the troposphere. The measurements were taken during the Atmospheric Moisture Intercomparison Study (ATMIS) held at Wallops Island (Virginia) during April 1989. Water vapor sensing instruments used during ATMIS, included radiometers, radiosondes, and the NASA/GSFC Raman lidar. Comparisons between water vapor measurements by the radiometer and the lidar yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.998 and rms differences for three nights of -0.2 +/- 0.2 mm (April 11-12), -0.8 +/- 0.5 mm (April 16-17), and -0.4 +/- 0.3 mm (April 17-18). The integrated precipitable water vapor measurements for these three nights were approximately 5, 10 and 21 mm, respectively. This study shows that the radiometer provides accurate continuous measurements of the water vapor integrated through the depth of the atmosphere.

England, Martin N.↗