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At least 577 records · Page 32

Learning with Adaptive Conservativeness for Distributionally Robust Optimization: Incentive Design for Voltage Regulation

Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.

adaptation models↗

Unsafe at Any Clock Speed: The Insecurity of Computer System Design, Implementation, and Operation

It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a [system failure]. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management. When playing Russian roulette the fact that the first shot got off safely is little comfort for the next. [T]here have been recent suggestions by management to curtail elaborate and expensive tests as being unnecessary. However, this must be resisted. The proper way to save money is to curtail the number of requested changes, not the quality of testing for each.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of the QSDC procedure to the formulation of space shuttle design criteria. Volume 1: Study effort

Criteria to determine the probability of aircraft structural failure were statistically established according to the Quantitative Structural Design Criteria by Statistical Methods, the QSDC procedure. Since an Application Guide is needed to use the QSDC procedure, most of the study was directed to the development of this guide. Most of the considerations followed in the development of the Applications Guide and the Guide itself are reported.

Bouton, I.↗

Application of the QSDC procedure to the formulation of space shuttle design criteria. Volume 2: Applications guide

Criteria to determine the probability of aircraft structural failure were established according to the Quantitative Structural Design Criteria by Statistical Methods, the QSDC Procedure. This criteria method was applied to the design of the space shuttle during this contract. An Applications Guide was developed to demonstrate the utilization of the QSDC Procedure, with examples of the application to a hypothetical space shuttle illustrating the application to specific design problems. Discussions of the basic parameters of the QSDC Procedure: the Limit and Omega Conditions, and the strength scatter, have been included. Available data pertinent to the estimation of the strength scatter have also been included.

Bouton, I.↗

A study of relationships between performance in system tests and space

Approaches for measuring the effectiveness of tests and test programs are considered, taking into account system test effectiveness, thermal-vacuum test effectiveness, and vibration test effectiveness. Methods for predicting space performance on the basis of system test effectiveness are discussed along with aspects of defect detection in thermal-vacuum tests. Questions regarding the thermal-vacuum test costs in relation to the probability of early space failures are also explored.

Timmins, A. R.↗

Volatile-element systematics and green glass in Apollo 15 lunar soils

A number of volatiles in Apollo 15 soils correlate with each other and with decreasing distance from the Apennine Front. These correlations can be understood in terms of a deposition of green glass and cogenetic volatiles on the flanks of the Front followed by addition of secondary magmatic volatiles including excess Ar-40. Mixing of these materials with mare-type regolith resulted in the observed volatile-element patterns. The absence of an increase in siderophilic element content with decreasing distance from the Front probably resulted from the failure of the steeply sloping front to develop a highlands-type mature regolith. Breccia 15015 has a siderophilic element signature typical of a mature Apollo 15 soil, which tends to rule out its transport to the site as part of an Autolycus or Aristillus ray.

Chou, C.-L.↗

Cost benefit analysis of space communications technology: Volume 1: Executive summary

The questions of (1) whether or not NASA should support the further development of space communications technology, and, if so, (2) which technology's support should be given the highest priority are addressed. Insofar as the issues deal principally with resource allocation, an economics perspective is adopted. The resultant cost benefit methodology utilizes the net present value concept in three distinct analysis stages to evaluate and rank those technologies which pass a qualification test based upon probable (private sector) market failure. User-preference and technology state-of-the-art surveys were conducted (in 1975) to form a data base for the technology evaluation. The program encompassed near-future technologies in space communications earth stations and satellites, including the noncommunication subsystems of the satellite (station keeping, electrical power system, etc.). Results of the research program include confirmation of the applicability of the methodology as well as a list of space communications technologies ranked according to the estimated net present value of their support (development) by NASA.

Holland, L. D.↗

Reliability analysis of forty-five strain-gage systems mounted on the first fan stage of a YF-100 engine

The reliability of 45 state-of-the-art strain gage systems under full scale engine testing was investigated. The flame spray process was used to install 23 systems on the first fan rotor of a YF-100 engine; the others were epoxy cemented. A total of 56 percent of the systems failed in 11 hours of engine operation. Flame spray system failures were primarily due to high gage resistance, probably caused by high stress levels. Epoxy system failures were principally erosion failures, but only on the concave side of the blade. Lead-wire failures between the blade-to-disk jump and the control room could not be analyzed.

Holanda, R.↗

Development of improved wraparound contacts for silicon

A developmental process for fabricating 2 X 4 cm back surface field silicon solar cells featuring wraparound contacts and screen printed dielectric isolation is described. The process was then used to fabricate a number of cells for evaluation and study, as well as to establish the validity of the process sequence. While a number of cells exhibiting relatively good conversion efficiencies were produced, nearly all had low I-V curve factors for the level of efficiencies attained. Cells with conversion efficiencies of more than 15 percent (air mass zero and 25 C) had fill factors of only 0.76. Evidence as to the cause of this has not been conclusive, but is most probably linked to isolation failure in the wraparound dielectric and associated shunting problems.

Thornhill, J. W.↗

An investigation into pilot and system response to critical in-flight events. Volume 2: Appendix

Materials relating to the study of pilot and system response to critical in-flight events (CIFE) are given. An annotated bibliography and a trip summary outline are presented, as are knowledge surveys with accompanying answer keys. Performance profiles of pilots and performance data from the simulations of CIFE's are given. The paper and pencil testing materials are reproduced. Conditions for the use of the additive model are discussed. A master summary of data for the destination diversion scenario is given. An interview with an aircraft mechanic demonstrates the feasibility of system problem diagnosis from a verbal description of symptoms and shows the information seeking and problem solving logic used by an expert to narrow the list of probable causes of aircraft failure.

Rockwell, T. H.↗

Integrated Application of Active Controls (IAAC) technology to an advanced subsonic transport project: Current and advanced act control system definition study, volume 1

An active controls technology (ACT) system architecture was selected based on current technology system elements and optimal control theory was evaluated for use in analyzing and synthesizing ACT multiple control laws. The system selected employs three redundant computers to implement all of the ACT functions, four redundant smaller computers to implement the crucial pitch-augmented stability function, and a separate maintenance and display computer. The reliability objective of probability of crucial function failure of less than 1 x 10 to the -9th power per flight of 1 hr can be met with current technology system components, if the software is assumed fault free and coverage approaching 1.0 can be provided. The optimal control theory approach to ACT control law synthesis yielded comparable control law performance much more systematically and directly than the classical s-domain approach. The ACT control law performance, although somewhat degraded by the inclusion of representative nonlinearities, remained quite effective. Certain high-frequency gust-load alleviation functions may require increased surface rate capability.

Hanks, G. W.↗

Validation methods for flight crucial systems

Research to develop techniques that can aid in determining the reliability and performance of digital electronic fault-tolerant systems, that have probability of catastrophic system failure on the order of 10 to the -9th at 10 hours, is reviewed. The computer-aided reliability estimation program (CARE III) provides general-purpose reliability analysis and a design tool for fault-tolerant systems; large reduction of state size; and a fault-handling model based on probabilistic description of detection, isolation, and recovery mechanisms. The application of design proof techniques as part of the design and development of the software implemented fault-tolerance computer is mentioned. Emulation techniques and experimental procedures are verified using specimens of fault-tolerant computers and the capabilities of the validation research laboratory, AIRLAB.

Holt, H. M.↗

Augmentation of orbital debris shielding for Space Station Freedom

Augmentation concepts for the Space Station Freedom (SSF) are described in detail and advantages and disadvantages of various proposals are evaluated. It is pointed out that early augmentation of SSF debris shielding, which would take place 6-9 years after the First Element Launch, could provide the greatest advantages to the program in terms of weight, cost, and safety benefits. Potential augmentation concepts include an attached, rigid aluminum second bumper; the multi-shock shield concept; a mesh double bumper concept; a debris shield augmentation element; a multi-shock airbag protection concept for 2-10 cm debris; and a debris sweeper. Requirements for and operation and deployment of these concepts are described in detail and an example of the augmentation effect on cumulative SSF probability of no-failure from debris and meteoroid impacts is given. An estimate of predicted encounter rates between debris and a 100 m radius sphere around SSF is presented.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Polarization signatures for abandoned agricultural fields in the Manix Basin area of the Mojave Desert

Polarimetric signatures from abandoned circular alfalfa fields in the Manix Basin area of the Mojave desert show systematic changes with length of abandonment. The obliteration of circular planting rows by surface processes could account for the disappearance of bright 'spokes', which seems to be reflection patterns from remnants of the planting rows, with increasing length of abandonment. An observed shift in the location of the maximum L-band copolarization return away from VV, as well as an increase in surface roughness, both occurring with increasing age of abandonment, seems to be attributable to the formation of wind ripple on the relatively vegetationless fields. A Late Pleistocene/Holocene sand bar deposit, which can be identified in the radar images, is probably responsible for the failure of three fields to match the age sequence patterns in roughness and peak shift.

Ray, Terrill W.↗

Estimating Lives Of Space Shuttle Parts

SSPOC (Space Shuttle Probabilistic Optimization Code) computer program, implements probabilistic mathematical model, accepts defined distributions of parameters controlling life of Space Shuttle main engine. Used to perform tradeoff studies to optimize between service life and acceptable level of risk, with greater accuracy. Also includes probability of removal and failure of parts, along with number of surviving parts for each interval of inspections. Written in FORTRAN 77, and user interface written in PASCAL(R).

Watkins, Tommie, Jr.↗

Growing crops for space explorers on the moon, Mars, or in space

An option in the long-duration exploration of space, whether on the Moon or Mars or in a spacecraft on its way to Mars or the asteroids, is to utilize a bioregenerative life-support system in addition to the physicochemical systems that will always be necessary. Green plants can use the energy of light to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and add oxygen to it while at the same time synthesizing food for the space travelers. The water that crop plants transpire can be condensed in pure form, contributing to the water purification system. An added bonus is that green plants provide a familiar environment for humans far from their home planet. The down side is that such a bioregenerative life-support system--called a controlled environment life-support system (CELSS) in this paper--must be highly complex and relatively massive to maintain a proper composition of the atmosphere while also providing food. Thus, launch costs will be high. Except for resupply and removal of nonrecycleable substances, such a system is nearly closed with respect to matter but open with respect to energy. Although a CELSS facility is small compared to the Earth's biosphere, it must be large enough to feed humans and provide a suitable atmosphere for them. A functioning CELSS can only be created with the help of today's advanced technology, especially computerized controls. Needed are energy for light, possibly from a nuclear power plant, and equipment to provide a suitable environment for plant growth, including a way to supply plants with the necessary mineral nutrients. All this constitutes the biomass production unit. There must also be food preparation facilities and a means to recycle or dispose of waste materials and there must be control equipment to keep the facility running. Humans are part of the system as well as plants and possibly animals. Human brain power will often be needed to keep the system functional in spite of the best computer-driven controls. The particulars of a CELSS facility depend strongly on where it is to be located. The presence of gravity on the Moon and Mars simplifies the design for a facility on those bodies, but a spacecraft in microgravity is a much more challenging environment. One problem is that plants, which are very sensitive to gravity, might not grow and produce food in the virtual absence of gravity. However, the experience with growing super-dwarf wheat in the Russian space station Mir, while not entirely successful because of the sterile wheat heads, was highly encouraging. The plants grew well for 123 days, producing more biomass than had been produced in space before. This was due to the high photon flux available to the plants and the careful control of substrate moisture. The sterile heads were probably due to the failure to remove the gaseous plant hormone, ethylene, from the Mir atmosphere. Since ethylene can easily be removed, it should be possible to grow wheat and other crops in microgravity with the production of viable seeds. On the ground Biosphere-2 taught us several lessons about the design and construction of a CELSS facility, but Bios-3 came much closer to achieving the goals of such a facility. Although stability was never completely reached, Bios-3 was much more stable than Biosphere-2 apparently because every effort was made to keep the system simple and to use the best technology available to maintain control. Wastes were not recycled in Bios-3 except for urine, and inedible plant materials were incinerated to restore CO2 to the atmosphere. Since much meat (about 20% of calories) was imported, closure in the Bios-3 experiments was well below 100%. But then, a practical CELSS on the Moon might also depend on regular resupply from Earth. Several important lessons have been learned from the CELSS research described in this review.

Review↗