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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

SPUTTERED THIN FILMS FOR VERY HIGH POWER, EFFICIENT, AND LOW-COST COMMERCIAL SOFCS

The aim of this project was to leverage the low area specific resistance (ASR) of Redox’s GDC electrolyte-based cell architecture and increase solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) efficiency (i.e., open circuit voltage, or OCV) without significantly increasing cell resistance. The key to achieving the increased SOFC efficiency is the introduction of a thin sputtered yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) electron-blocking layer and a thin sputtered gadolinia doped ceria (GDC) barrier layer on top of the half-cell substrate (i.e., anode and GDC electrolyte). A key initial effort of the project was to improve the quality of the half-cell substrate surface so that any remaining defects were significantly smaller than the desired film thickness. During lab-scale trials, we had to overcome challenges with film cracking during post-sputtering treatments (e.g., thermal anneals) as well as damage to the sputtering targets. After the initial lab-scale trials, the focus shifted toward the use of commercial scale sputtering equipment with a sputtering equipment manufacturer in the microelectronics industry. Using the commercial sputtering equipment, we deposited films with different variations of power, PO2, sputtering time, platen speed, etc. We then determined the combinations of sputtering conditions and post-sputtering treatments that yielded high-quality films without cracks or other significant defects. While thin films were deposited on cells as large as 10 cm by 10 cm, the processing was optimized using 4 cm by 4 cm cells. Cell performance was evaluated in stainless-steel test fixtures between 500 °C and 700 °C with hydrogen fuel fed to the anode and air fed to the cathode. Extensive studies allowed us to determine that modified cathode and cathode contact firing processes were required to achieve theoretical OCV. Moreover, use of the new firing processes resulted in the need for a modified cathode contact to achieve a low ASR. In summary, the project demonstrated the performance of high OCV (1.13 V at 650 °C) from sputtered layers and a low ASR (~0.25 Ohms-cm2 at 650 °C) resulting from a modification of cathode/contact processing and the introduction of alternative contact layers that are sufficient to yield a Gen-1 cell with a maximum power density of approximately 1.2 W/cm2. At an operating voltage of 0.74 V, this would yield a cell power density of ~1.1 W/cm2. While not utilized in this project, a Redox Gen-2 cell has a catalyst-infiltrated porous anode that reduces the ASR by more than 50% from that of the Gen-1 cells used in this project. Therefore, if the sputtered YSZ electron-blocking layer and GDC barrier layer are added to a Gen-2 half cell with a similar increase in OCV to the theoretical value of ~1.13 V at 650 °C, and if the same improvement in ASR (from that demonstrated in this project) is achieved when using the Gen-2 half-cell architecture as a sputtered cell substrate, then the power density at 0.74 Vop could be as high as ~2.6 W/cm2. The impact of such power density gains, while still maintaining high cell efficiency, and thus high system efficiency, is a dramatic decrease in system cost because the stack represents ~30-40% of the SOFC system cost.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven sensor placement approach for detecting voltage violations in distribution systems

Stochastic fluctuations in power injections from distributed energy resources (DERs) combined with load variability can cause constraint violations (e.g., exceeded voltage limits) in electric distribution systems. To monitor grid operations, sensors are placed to measure important quantities such as the voltage magnitudes. Here, in this paper, we consider a sensor placement problem which seeks to identify locations for installing sensors that can capture all possible violations of voltage magnitude limits. We formulate a bilevel optimization problem that minimizes the number of sensors and avoids false sensor alarms in the upper level while ensuring detection of any voltage violations in the lower level. This problem is challenging due to the nonlinearity of the power flow equations and the presence of binary variables. Accordingly, we employ recently developed conservative linear approximations of the power flow equations that overestimate or underestimate the voltage magnitudes. By replacing the nonlinear power flow equations with conservative linear approximations, we can ensure that the resulting sensor locations and thresholds are sufficient to identify any constraint violations. Additionally, we apply various problem reformulations to significantly improve computational tractability while simultaneously ensuring an appropriate placement of sensors. Lastly, we improve the quality of the results via an approximate gradient descent method that adjusts the sensor thresholds. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method for several test cases, including a system with multiple switching configurations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Growth and characterization of high-quality Zr doped AlN epilayers

AlN stands out for its remarkable figures of merit for electronic and photonic devices, attributed to its ultrawide bandgap of ∼6.1 eV and an exceptionally high critical field of ∼15 MV/cm. More recently, zirconium (Zr) doped AlN (AlN:Zr) has also been identified as a promising material platform for the exploration of solid-state qubits for quantum information and technology, high performance piezoelectric acoustic wave resonators, and optically triggered ultrafast power switching devices facilitated by optically activating Zr related impurities. Despite the significant potential, the ability for producing AlN:Zr epitaxial structures has yet to be established. In this study, we have achieved AlN:Zr epilayers with a high Zr doping level [NZr] of up to 1020 cm−3 using industrial standard metal-organic chemical vapor deposition growth technique. High crystalline quality of AlN:Zr was confirmed by x-ray diffraction, revealing a narrow full width at half maximum of the (002) rocking curve at 216 arcsec for 1.8 μm thick epilayers deposited on sapphire at [NZr]=1020 cm−3. Zr doping was observed to slightly increase the c-lattice constant to 4.992 Å for AlN:Zr (at [NZr]=1020 cm−3) compared to 4.980 Å for undoped AlN. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurement results verified the substitution of Zr at the Al site (ZrAl). The formation of (ZrAl–VN) complexes, which are predicted to possess all the desired properties required by quantum qubits, was confirmed through optical absorption studies. The realization of high-quality AlN:Zr epilayers significantly broadens the scope of technologically significant device applications for AlN.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overall Performance Losses and Activated Mechanisms in Double Glass and Glass-backsheet Photovoltaic Modules with Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Cells, under Accelerated Exposures

Commercial PV modules have various packaging choices nowadays, which influence their long-term reliability. This study compared the degradation behaviors of sixteen module variants from two brands with varying encapsulant materials (EVA or POE), encapsulant types, module architectures (GB or DG), and cell types (monofacial or bifacial) using null hypothesis testing to determine statistical significant findings. The modules were exposed for 2,520 hours under two accelerated exposures: modified damp heat (mDH) and modified damp heat with full-spectrum light (mDH+FSL). For both brands, two DG module variants with UV-Cutoff rear encapsulant are found to have significantly lower average power loss than the module variants of EVA+GB with opaque rear encapsulant after each accelerated exposure. Metallization interconnect corrosion is identified as the primary degradation mechanism. Furthermore, unsupervised hierarchical clustering finds that the degradation behaviors of modules from one brand with a more strict manufacturing quality control depends on module architectures only.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing the power of weak lensing data with multipole-based intrinsic alignment estimators

ABSTRACT It has long been known that galaxy shapes align coherently with the large-scale density field. Characterizing this effect is essential to interpreting measurements of weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light from distant galaxies by matter overdensities along the line of sight, as it also produces coherent galaxy alignments that we wish to interpret in terms of a cosmological model. Existing direct measurements of intrinsic alignments using galaxy samples with high-quality shape and redshift measurements typically use well-understood but sub-optimal projected estimators, which do not make good use of the information in the data when comparing those estimators to theoretical models. We demonstrate a more optimal estimator, based on a multipole expansion of the correlation functions or power spectra, for direct measurements of galaxy intrinsic alignments. We show that even using the lowest order multipole alone increases the significance of inferred model parameters using simulated and real data, without any additional modelling complexity. We apply this estimator to measurements of parameters of the non-linear alignment model using data from the Sloan Digital Sky survey, demonstrating consistent results with a factor of ∼2 greater precision in parameter fits to intrinsic alignments models. This result is functionally equivalent to quadrupling the survey area, but without the attendant costs – thereby demonstrating the value in using this new estimator in current and future intrinsic alignments measurements using spectroscopic galaxy samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Capacitive Wireless Power Transfer System for Electric Vehicles (CRADA Final Report)

Road transportation accounts for 23% of our nation's total energy consumption, 59% of our petroleum consumption and 22% of our total emissions. Electric vehicles (EVs) have much higher well-to-wheel efficiency compared to gasoline vehicles and can reduce our dependence on oil, minimize emissions, improve local air quality and provide a platform for technological innovation and economic growth. While major progress has been made in the development of electric vehicles, their penetration remains under 1 The main hurdles in their widespread adoption are high cost, limited range and long charging times, due to limitations in battery technology. An approach to overcome these hurdles is to substantially reduce the on-board energy storage and instead deliver power wirelessly to the vehicle while it is in motion dynamic wireless power transfer (WPT). For EV charging applications, researchers have traditionally focused on inductive WPT. An issue with inductive WPT systems is that for magnetic flux guidance and shielding, they require ferrite cores, making them expensive, bulky and difficult to embed in the roadway. Under an ARPA-E IDEAS grant, the CU Boulder team has recently developed an alternative approach to WPT based on capacitive coupling that is much smaller, lighter, less expensive, and easier to embed in the roadway than inductive WPT; and have demonstrated a 1.2-kW 6.78-MHz version of this capacitive WPT system on a stationary platform. Under this seed grant program, preliminary work will be carried out on a dynamic capacitive WPT system to prepare a strong proposal for the ARPA-E OPEN 2018 FOA.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Templated Growth and Passivation of Vertically Oriented Antimony Selenide Thin Films for High-Efficiency Solar Cells in Substrate Configuration

Antimony selenide (Sb 2 Se 3 ) is a promising low-cost photovoltaic material with a 1D crystal structure. The grain orientation and defect passivation play a critical role in determining the performance of polycrystalline Sb 2 Se 3 thin-film solar cells. In this work, a seed layer is introduced on a molybdenum (Mo) substrate to template the growth of a vertically oriented, columnar Sb 2 Se 3 absorber layer by closed space sublimation. By controlling the grain orientation and compactness of the Sb 2 Se 3 seeds, obtain high-quality Sb 2 Se 3 absorber layers with passive Sb 2 Se 3 /Mo interfaces is obtained, which in turn improve the transport of photoexcited charge carriers through the absorber layer and its interfaces. Post-deposition annealing of absorber layers in ambient air is further utilized to passivate the defects in Sb 2 Se 3 and enhance the quality of the front heterojunction. As a result of systematic processing optimization, Sb 2 Se 3 planar heterojunction solar cells are fabricated in substrate configuration with a champion power conversion efficiency of 8.5%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isotherm modeling and techno-economic analysis of a TSA moving bed process using a tetraamine-appended MOF for NGCC applications

Tetraamine-appended metal-organic frameworks (MOF) are a new family of amine-functionalized MOF materials that show potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. This work presents isotherm modeling of the tetraamine-appended MOF Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3-4-3)(dobpdc 4- =4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'dicarboxylate;3-4-3=N,N'bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), process modeling, scale up, and a techno-economic optimization of a moving bed Temperature Swing Adsorption (TSA) process for carbon capture using this sorbent. This MOF exhibits a unique two-step CO 2 adsorption profile in three different pressure ranges. Thus, arctangent-based logistic functions and, quadratic and Langmuir models were employed to represent such isotherm behavior. The results of the isotherm model show good fitting vs the experimental data with an RMSE of 0.41. Here, to model the carbon capture process, the isotherm model was embedded into a moving bed contactor model, and this was used to simulate a TSA CO 2 capture cycle and evaluate cost-optimal designs considering flue gas from a -650 MWe NGCC power plant. The capital cost model consists of CAPEX correlations for reactors, compressors, ducting, etc., while the operating costs include steam, water, chemicals, and electricity (following NETL's quality guidelines for energy systems studies). A techno-economic optimization of the capture system was performed by using NETL's Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS). Results suggest that a moving bed carbon capture system with tetraamine-appended MOF can be competitive compared to conventional MEA solvent-based capture processes for NGCC plants, when a heat recovery efficiency of at least 40% is achieved, and MOF materials can be produced at a cost below -$9/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

TMTpro Complementary Ion Quantification Increases Plexing and Sensitivity for Accurate Multiplexed Proteomics at the MS2 Level

Multiplexed proteomics is a powerful tool to assay cell states in health and disease, but accurate quantification of relative protein changes is impaired by interference from co-isolated peptides. Most widely, this issue is alleviated by MS3-based quantification, reducing sensitivity and requiring specialized instrumentation. An alternative approach is quantification by complementary ions, which allows accurate and precise multiplexed quantification at the MS2 level and is compatible with the most widely distributed instruments. However, complementary ions of the popular TMT tag form inefficiently and plexing is limited to five channels. In this work, we evaluate and optimize complementary ion quantification for the recently released TMTPro tag, which increases plexing capacity to 8 channels (TMTProC). We find that the beneficial fragmentation properties increase quantification signal five-fold compared to TMT. This increased sensitivity results in ~50% more proteins quantified compared to TMTPro-MS3 and even slightly outperforms TMTPro-MS2. Furthermore, TMTProC quantification is more accurate than TMTPro-MS2 and even superior to TMTPro-MS3. To demonstrate the power of TMTProC, we analyzed a human and yeast interference sample and were able to quantify 13,290 proteins in 24 fractions. Thus, TMTProC advances multiplexed proteomics data quality and widens access to accurate multiplexed proteomics beyond laboratories with MS3-capable instrumentation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Above-Room-Temperature Ferromagnetism in Thin van der Waals Flakes of Cobalt-Substituted Fe 5 GeTe 2

Two-dimensional (2D) magnetic van der Waals materials provide a powerful platform for studying the fundamental physics of low-dimensional magnetism, engineering novel magnetic phases, and enabling thin and highly tunable spintronic devices. To realize high-quality and practical devices for such applications, there is a critical need for robust 2D magnets with ordering temperatures above room temperature that can be created via exfoliation. Here, in this paper, the study of exfoliated flakes of cobalt-substituted Fe 5 GeTe 2 (CFGT) exhibiting magnetism above room temperature is reported. Via quantum magnetic imaging with nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond, ferromagnetism at room temperature was observed in CFGT flakes as thin as 16 nm corresponding to 16 layers. This result expands the portfolio of thin room-temperature 2D magnet flakes exfoliated from robust single crystals that reach a thickness regime relevant to practical spintronic applications. The Curie temperature T c of CFGT ranges from 310 K in the thinnest flake studied to 328 K in the bulk. To investigate the prospect of high-temperature monolayer ferromagnetism, Monte Carlo calculations were performed, which predicted a high value of T c of ~270 K in CFGT monolayers. Pathways toward further enhancing monolayer T c are discussed. These results support CFGT as a promising platform for realizing high-quality room-temperature 2D magnet devices.

2D magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast-Spectrum Critical Assemblies with a Pb-HEU Core Surrounded by a Copper Reflector

The Department of Energy invests tens of millions of dollars each year to develop the next generation of nuclear engineering modeling & simulation (M&S) tools. These M&S tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers become more powerful, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. This improved resolution is taking us to a point where the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the data. In order to accurately model systems of interest, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements and our confidence of how well we understand the data. Thus, M&S tools need evaluated and quality-assured experimental data for validation purposes. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles benchmark experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers to validate computer codes and cross-section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. Figure 1 organizes all the benchmark evaluations that have been performed by the isotope of interest, in this case Pb, and the neutron energy within the system. Compared to other isotopes of interest for nuclear applications, there are few benchmark evaluations for Pb systems. This has caused the latest nuclear cross-section libraries to over/underestimate changes in the neutron population compared to experimental results. Therefore, this evaluation fills an important knowledge gap in benchmark evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The European ERL Roadmap

Following the European Strategy process in 2019, five Roadmap Panels were set up to prepare the technologies needed for future accelerators and colliders: high-field magnets, SRF, muon colliders, plasma wakefield accelera-tors and Energy Recovery Linacs (ERLs). The ERL Roadmap Panel, consisting of ERL experts from around the world, first developed an overview of current and future ERLs. From this it was possible to carry out a gap analysis to see what R&D would be needed, from which the roadmap could be developed. The European ERL Roadmap [1] focused on three main aspects: 1) the con-tinuation and development of facility programs for which no additional funds are needed, S-DALINAC in Darm-stadt and MESA in Mainz; 2) technology development for room-temperature HOM damping and twin-axis SRF cavities; 3) the timely upgrade of bERLinPro for 100 mA current and the construction of PERLE at Orsay as a dedi-cated 10 MW power multi-turn facility. The roadmap entails a vision of a future energy frontier electron-positron and electron-hadron collider and describes a high-quality ERL program for 4.4K SRF technology at high Q0.

Hutton, A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Evaluation of Fuel-Reactor Concepts for Advanced LEU Fuel Development

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation R&D has commenced a project to evaluate and develop low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel systems, materials, and fabrication technologies that could be used for compact, advanced LEU (aLEU) fuel, power-producing, high-burnup reactor applications. Potential applications are intended to be off-grid power sources for ship-borne systems and transportable systems to fixed locations, e.g., to a remote base or to a seawater desalination service location. Reactors with these qualities and fuel enrichments between 5 and 20% are atypical. The aLEU Fuel for Nonproliferation Applications Project addresses this technology gap.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational Fermi Level Engineering and Doping-Type Conversion of Ga2O3 Via Three-Step Processing

Ga2O3 is being actively explored for power electronics, deep-ultraviolet optoelectronics, and other applications due to its ultra-wide bandgap and low projected fabrication cost of large-size and high-quality crystals. N-type doping of Ga2O3 can be achieved and tuned, but p-type doping faces fundamental obstacles due to deep character of acceptor levels and polaron transport of resulting holes. However, successful engineering of Ga2O3 based devices requires critical control of doping density, Fermi level position, and free carrier concentration, providing opportunities for predictive process simulation. We use first-principles defect theory and defect equilibrium calculations to simulate a 3-step growth-annealing-quench protocol for hydrogen assisted Mg doping in Ga2O3, taking into account the hydrogen-oxygen-water gas phase equilibrium. We predict type conversion to a net p-type regime following O-rich annealing after growth under reducing conditions in the presence of H2. This process is similar to the Mg acceptor activation by H removal in GaN. We show that there is an optimal temperature that maximizes the net acceptor density during the equilibrium annealing step for a given Mg doping level. Quenching of non-equilibrium annealed samples then results in a Fermi level EF below mid-gap down to about EV +1.5 eV, creating a significant number of uncompensated neutral MgGa0 acceptors. The resulting free hole concentration in quenched samples is very low (109 – 1012 cm-3) due to deep energy level of these Mg acceptors, but this type converted Ga2O3 material can create a significant built-in field in a p-n junction with an adjoining n-type material. Additionally, the electron concentration is greatly suppressed in such acceptor-doped Ga2O3, which could enable the use as a current blocking layer to fabricate normally-off (enhancement-mode) vertical Ga2O3 based metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs), and as a guard ring for edge termination in MOSFETs and Schottky barrier diodes (SBDs) with increased breakdown voltage.

CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS,M↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status of HEU-Pb in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook

The Department of Energy invests tens of millions of dollars each year to develop the next generation of nuclear engineering modeling & simulation (M&S) tools. These tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers become more powerful, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. This improved resolution is taking us to a point where the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the data. In order to model systems of interest with increasing accuracy, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements. Thus, M&S tools need evaluated and quality-assured experimental data for validation purposes. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles and evaluates experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers and others to validate computer codes and cross-section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. Figure 1 organizes all the benchmark evaluations that have been performed by the isotope of interest, in this case Pb, and the average neutron energy the system. Compared to other isotopes of interest for nuclear applications, there are few benchmark evaluations for Pb systems. The lack of integral measurements to determine errors in Pb cross-section data has caused the latest nuclear cross-section libraries to over/underestimate k eff compared to experimental results. Therefore, this evaluation fills an important knowledge gap in benchmark evaluations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Value of Information and Data Management Platform Promoting Modern Data Analysis Utilization. STTR Phase I, Final Technical Report

The immense growth in weather and river sensor data availability along with increases in computational power and algorithmic sophistication have enabled the widespread application of physical, machine learning, and artificial intelligence algorithms to river forecasting. The forecasts produced by widely varying model approaches are inherently limited in different ways, such as by the number and quality of training observations, producing biased predictions that achieve optimal skill only over specific ranges of weather and river conditions. Thus, despite the growing availability and new sources of forecasts, hydropower owners cannot fully leverage the information because they lack an effective mechanism to determine the “best” forecast for given conditions or objectives. Tools are needed to consolidate forecast information, demonstrate skill, and extract optimal forecast guidance from the range of possibilities. Such tools will increase uptake and beneficial use of the growing wealth of forecast information, and lead to improved operating decisions, optimal power generation, and enhanced system value. This research proposes to improve the value of forecasts by developing a broadly accessible verification framework and applying machine learning techniques to identify the ‘best’ forecast from an ensemble of sources given the current weather, river, and operating conditions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Non-Steady State Operation on Cooling Water Consumption at Coal- and Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

Increased renewable energy penetration in the electricity grid in coming decades will result in more frequent cycling at thermal power plants. Simultaneously, thermal power plants may face water scarcity with declining availability of cooling water. Therefore, to enhance thermal power plants’ resiliency to water shortages it is important to understand how non-steady conditions due to cycling will impact cooling water consumption and withdrawal intensity. Non-steady operation at power plants has been previously shown to decrease power plant thermal efficiency. Energy balance models have also demonstrated that a decrease in thermal efficiency is expected to increase cooling water consumption intensity. Furthermore, past work has used operating hours data to show idling and cycling gaps where cooling systems operate more than corresponding generators. As a result, an increase in cycling behavior may impact cooling water consumption and withdrawal intensity. This study uses data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to quantify the impact of cycling cooling water consumption intensity for recirculating cooling systems and withdrawal intensity for once-through cooling systems using energy balance and statistical approaches. In a novel application of a fixed effects model to study the effect of temperature on cooling water consumption and withdrawal intensity, this study finds temperature was consistently expected to increase consumption intensity and withdrawal intensity. Non-steady state conditions do not increase cooling water consumption intensity with statistical significance across unit types. However, additional validation of cooling water data is required to confirm these observed trends due to the sensitivity of these findings to model form and concerns with data quality of the dependent variables, cooling water consumption and withdrawal.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗