Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “power modeling and estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32

The manufacture of hydrogen from coal

The conversion of coal to hydrogen is studied from the viewpoint of overall plant efficiency for three different processes: suspension gasification, fluidized-bed gasification, and fluidized steam-iron process. The basic principles of these processes are reviewed, and total energy requirements are estimated and complete energy balances are made for each process, on the assumption that each model plant is self-contained, with no power imported. Overall plant efficiencies for conversion of coal to major gaseous products plus by-products were determined to be: suspension gasification - 57.0%, fluidized-bed gasification - 66.4%, fluidized steam-iron process - 62.6%. Similar results are presented for methane liquefaction from coal using a process design based on hydrogasification, and it is found that conversion of coal to pipeline methane is much more efficient and less expensive than hydrogen conversion if a portion of the coal is converted to synthesis gas and this gas is used to hydrogenate more coal to methane.

Tsaros, C. L.↗

A Chandra X-Ray Study of NGC 1068 IL the Luminous X-Ray Source Population

We present an analysis of the compact X-ray source population in the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068, imaged with a approx. 50 ks Chandra observation. We find a total of 84 compact sources on the S3 chip, of which 66 are located within the 25.0 B-mag/arcsec isophote of the galactic disk of NGC 1068. Spectra have been obtained for the 21 sources with at least 50 counts and modeled with both multicolor disk blackbody and power-law models. The power-law model provides the better description of the spectrum for 18 of these sources. For fainter sources, the spectral index has been estimated from the hardness ratio. Five sources have 0.4 - 8 keV intrinsic luminosities greater than 10(exp 39)ergs/ s, assuming that their emission is isotropic and that they are associated with NGC 1068. We refer to these sources as intermediate-luminosity X-ray objects (ISOs). If these five sources are X-ray binaries accreting with luminosities that are both sub-Eddington and isotropic, then the implied source masses are approx greater than 7 solar mass, and so they are inferred to be black holes. Most of the spectrally modeled sources have spectral shapes similar to Galactic black hole candidates. However, the brightest compact source in NGC 1068 has a spectrum that is much harder than that found in Galactic black hole candidates and other ISOs. The brightest source also shows large amplitude variability on both short-term and long-term timescales, with the count rate possibly decreasing by a factor of 2 in approx. 2 ks during our Chundra observation, and the source flux decreasing by a factor of 5 between our observation and the grating observations taken just over 9 months later. The ratio of the number of sources with luminosities greater than 2.1 x 10(exp 38) ergs/s in the 0.4 - 8 keV band to the rate of massive (greater than 5 solar mass) star formation is the same, to within a factor of 2, for NGC 1068, the Antennae, NGC 5194 (the main galaxy in M51), and the Circinus galaxy. This suggests that the rate of production of X-ray binaries per massive star is approximately the same for galaxies with currently active star formation, including "starbursts."

Smith, David A.↗

Technologies for Aircraft Noise Reduction

Technologies for aircraft noise reduction have been developed by NASA over the past 15 years through the Advanced Subsonic Technology (AST) Noise Reduction Program and the Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) project. This presentation summarizes highlights from these programs and anticipated noise reduction benefits for communities surrounding airports. Historical progress in noise reduction and technologies available for future aircraft/engine development are identified. Technologies address aircraft/engine components including fans, exhaust nozzles, landing gear, and flap systems. New "chevron" nozzles have been developed and implemented on several aircraft in production today that provide significant jet noise reduction. New engines using Ultra-High Bypass (UHB) ratios are projected to provide about 10 EPNdB (Effective Perceived Noise Level in decibels) engine noise reduction relative to the average fleet that was flying in 1997. Audio files are embedded in the presentation that estimate the sound levels for a 35,000 pound thrust engine for takeoff and approach power conditions. The predictions are based on actual model scale data that was obtained by NASA. Finally, conceptual pictures are shown that look toward future aircraft/propulsion systems that might be used to obtain further noise reduction.

Huff, Dennis L.↗

Twenty Years of Radiation Measurements in Low-Earth Orbit - What Have We Learned Space Radiation Environment?

The advent of the Space Shuttle program has made possible space radiation environment measurements spanning a wide range of altitudes and orbital inclinations over multiple solar cycles. These measurements range from routine integral dose measurements with thermoluminescent dosimeters to particle energy spectra measurements made with a charged particle telescope. This paper will review the new understanding about the space radiation environment gained from this diverse data set. Major findings from these measurements include: estimations of the westward drift rate of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) of 0.28-0.49/y; evidence for a northward component to the SAA drift of 0.08-0.12/y; observation of the formation and decay of the pseudo-stable additional radiation belt following the Mar 1991 SPE and geomagnetic storm with an estimated decay e-folding time of 9-10 months; observation of a local geomagnetic east-west trapped proton exposure anisotropy with an estimated magnitude of 1.6-3.3; demonstration that the trapped proton exposure in low-Earth orbit (LEO) can be reasonably modeled as a power law function of atmospheric density in the SAA region, with best correlations obtained when the exospheric temperature saturates at 938-975 K; the actual solar cycle modulation of trapped proton exposure in LEO is less than predicted by the AP8 model; and the testing and validation of GCR flux models, radiation transport codes, and dynamic geomagnetic cutoff models. Long-term, time-resolved proportional counter measurements made aboard the Mir during the same period provides further demonstration of the solar cycle modulation of the trapped protons at low altitudes - the observed modulation is also well described as power law function of atmospheric density. These data and findings have helped to improve the overall accuracy of pre-mission crew exposure projections using various semi-empirical space environment models, radiation transport codes, and spacecraft radiation shielding models. During the rise phase of solar cycle 22 (1987-1991), the RMS error between preflight exposure projections and measured crew exposure was 73%. For the rise phase of cycle 23 (1997-2001), the preflight exposure projection RMS error has decreased to 23%. The launch and assembly of the Space Station has begun a new era of long-term LEO space environment monitoring. The radiation environment at the Space Station will be monitored with three external charged particle telescopes oriented in the velocity vector, anti-velocity vector, and zenith directions. Data from the telescopes will provide charge, mass, energy, and arrival direction for incident particles with energy to mass ratios of 13- 450 MeV/amu and Z of 1-24. The external environment data will be complimented by measurements from a portable charged particle telescope and proportional counter located inside the vehicle.

Golightly, Michael J.↗

Fast Conceptual Cost Estimating of Aerospace Projects Using Historical Information

Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

Butts, Glenn↗

BEYONDPLANCK VI. Noise characterization and modeling

We present a Bayesian method for estimating instrumental noise parameters and propagating noise uncertainties within the global BeyondPlanck Gibbs sampling framework, and apply this to Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) time-ordered data. Following previous literature, we initially adopt a 1/ f model for the noise power spectral density (PSD), but find the need for an additional lognormal component in the noise model for the 30 and 44 GHz bands. We implement an optimal Wiener-filter (or constrained realization) gap-filling procedure to account for masked data. We then use this procedure to both estimate the gapless correlated noise in the time-domain, n corr , and to sample the noise PSD parameters, ξ n = {σ 0 , f knee , α, A p }. In contrast to previous Planck analyses, we assume piecewise stationary noise only within each pointing period (PID), not throughout the full mission, but we adopt the LFI Data Processing Center (DPC) results as priors on α and f knee . On average, we find best-fit correlated noise parameters that are mostly consistent with previous results, with a few notable exceptions. However, a detailed inspection of the time-dependent results reveals many important findings. First and foremost, we find strong evidence for statistically significant temporal variations in all noise PSD parameters, many of which are directly correlated with satellite housekeeping data. Second, while the simple 1/ f model appears to be an excellent fit for the LFI 70 GHz channel, there is evidence for additional correlated noise not described by a 1/ f model in the 30 and 44 GHz channels, including within the primary science frequency range of 0.1–1 Hz. In general, most 30 and 44 GHz channels exhibit deviations from 1/ f at the 2–3σ level in each one hour pointing period, motivating the addition of the lognormal noise component for these bands. For some periods of time, we also find evidence of strong common mode noise fluctuations across the entire focal plane. Overall, we conclude that a simple 1/ f profile is not adequate to fully characterize the Planck LFI noise, even when fitted hour-by-hour, and a more general model is required. These findings have important implications for large-scale CMB polarization reconstruction with the Planck LFI data, and the current work is a first attempt at understanding and mitigating these issues.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Estimate of the Impact of Reionization on Supermassive Black Hole Growth

Abstract The supermassive black holes (SMBHs) that power active galactic nuclei found at z ≥ 6 were formed during the Epoch of Reionization. Because reionization is an inhomogeneous process, the physical properties of SMBH host-galaxy environments will vary spatially during reionization. We construct a semi-analytic model to estimate the impact of reionization on SMBH growth. Using a series of merger trees, reionization models, and black hole (BH) growth models, we find that early reionization can reduce a SMBH’s mass by up to [50, 70, 90]% within dark matter halos of mass [10 12 , 10 11 , 10 10 ] M ⊙ by z = 6. Our findings also suggest that the redshift range in which BH growth is impacted by reionization strongly depends on whether the Eddington accretion rate can be exceeded. If so, we find that BH masses are significantly suppressed principally during the early phases of reionization ( z ≳ 10), while they are more readily suppressed across the full redshift range if super-Eddington growth is not allowed. We find that the global average impact of reionization may be to reduce the masses of BHs residing in ≲10 11 M ⊙ halos by a factor of ≳2. The census of SMBHs being uncovered by the JWST may offer a means to test the basic prediction that more massive BHs reside in cosmological volumes that are reionized at later times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hybrid Energy-Powered Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Model

Offshore synthetic fuel production and marine carbon dioxide removal can be enabled by direct ocean capture, which extracts carbon dioxide from the ocean that then can be used as a feedstock for fuel production or sequestered underground. To maximize carbon capture, plants require a variety of low-carbon energy sources to operate, such as variable renewable energy. However, the impacts of variable power on direct ocean capture have not yet been thoroughly investigated. To facilitate future deployments, a generalizable model for electrodialysis-based direct ocean capture plants is created to evaluate plant performance and electricity costs under intermittent power availability. This open-source Python-based model captures key aspects of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, post-processing, and operation scenarios under various conditions. To incorporate realistic energy supply dynamics and cost estimates, the model is coupled with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s H2Integrate tool, which simulates hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs. This integrated framework is designed to provide system-level insights while maintaining computational efficiency and flexibility for scenario exploration. Initial evaluations show similar results to those predicted by the industry, and demonstrate how a given plant could function with variable power in different deployment locations, such as with wind energy off the coast of Texas and with wind and wave energy off the coast of Oregon. The results suggest that electrochemical systems with greater tolerances for power variability and low minimum power requirements may offer operational advantages in variable-energy contexts. However, further research is needed to quantify these benefits and evaluate their implications across different deployment scenarios.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

Enhanced shear stabilization of turbulence in NSTX

In studying a particular non-stationary NSTX L-mode plasma, we observed unexpectedly high levels of flux—first with quasilinear (TGLF) modeling and subsequently with nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Upon more detailed analysis, a novel confinement regime was discovered in which a modest increase in E x B shear (beyond baseline experimental estimates) rapidly reduced turbulent transport to levels consistent with power balance. This modest increase is plausible given the errors inherent to the estimation of shearing rates, and the added complexity of the non-stationary (time-dependent) power balance. Remarkably, an additional small increase in shear yields the familiar ion-neoclassical transport level with what appears to be the onset of high-k electron transport only. Although analyses using the TGLF-SAT2 model successfully capture numerous parametric dependencies of this plasma, TGLF does not reproduce the rapid E x B stabilization seen in CGYRO. We believe the results presented should help to better characterize the nonlinear physics of spherical tokamak confinement regimes, provide useful ST datasets for reduced model development, and motivate more accurate experimental diagnosis of E x B shearing rates.

Atomic and molecular collisions↗

A Study of Cavitation-Ignition Bubble Combustion

We present the results of an experimental and computational study of the physics and chemistry of cavitation-ignition bubble combustion (CIBC), a process that occurs when combustible gaseous mixtures are ignited by the high temperatures found inside a rapidly collapsing bubble. The CIBC process was modeled using a time-dependent compressible fluid-dynamics code that includes finite-rate chemistry. The model predicts that gas-phase reactions within the bubble produce CO and other gaseous by-products of combustion. In addition, heat and mechanical energy release through a bubble volume-expansion phase are also predicted by the model. We experimentally demonstrate the CIBC process using an ultrasonically excited cavitation flow reactor with various hydrocarbon-air mixtures in liquid water. Low concentrations (< 160 ppm) of carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from the ultrasonic reactor were measured, and found to be proportional to the acoustic excitation power. The results of the model were consistent with the measured experimental results. Based on the experimental findings, the computational model, and previous reports of the "micro-diesel effect" in industrial hydraulic systems, we conclude that CIBC is indeed possible and exists in ultrasonically- and hydrodynamically-induced cavitation. Finally, estimates of the utility of CIBC process as a means of powering an idealized heat engine are also presented.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

Design of a High-Energy, Two-Stage Pulsed Plasma Thruster

Design details of a proposed high-energy (approx. 50 kJ/pulse), two-stage pulsed plasma thruster are presented. The long-term goal of this project is to develop a high-power (approx. 500 kW), high specific impulse (approx. 7500 s), highly efficient (approx. 50%),and mechanically simple thruster for use as primary propulsion in a high-power nuclear electric propulsion system. The proposed thruster (PRC-PPT1) utilizes a valveless, liquid lithium-fed thermal plasma injector (first stage) followed by a high-energy pulsed electromagnetic accelerator (second stage). A numerical circuit model coupled with one-dimensional current sheet dynamics, as well as a numerical MHD simulation, are used to qualitatively predict the thermal plasma injection and current sheet dynamics, as well as to estimate the projected performance of the thruster. A set of further modelling efforts, and the experimental testing of a prototype thruster, is suggested to determine the feasibility of demonstrating a full scale high-power thruster.

Markusic, T. E.↗

Storm DEPART(Damage Estimate Prediction And Recovery Tool)

Damage prediction, materials needed, and resource allocation modeling capability in order to support pre-incident planning and preparation by predicting damage to the power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets. The capabilities will be developed by multiple factors to include wind bands, storm surge, and flooding forecasts to participant’s assets which will result in a report of predicted damages. Additional factors to include available participants infrastructure data to include class, age, construction, location, wind rating, and additional information not in the public domain. Based on predicted damages, the output will be a bill of materials (BOM) to support short-term recovery operations. The extensiveness and level of detail for this BOM will depend on the replacement configuration specifications provided for each individual participant asset. Any limiting factors for the model will be applied related supply chain and resource constraints.

Klett, Mary↗

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Cycle Variation in the Inner Zone Proton Belt Configuration

This paper presents a novel method of demonstrating atmospheric scale-height effects on energetic trapped protons. We have been using 2-D cross correlations as a powerful method of assessing the role of the trapped energetic protons in producing various effects in low altitude satellite systems. The method has permitted us to directly measure the drift of the particle South Atlantic Anomaly (due to the secular variation in the geomagnetic field) as a function of altitude and proton energy and to estimate the energy of the particles causing those effects. We have also been able to address minor artifacts in the AP82 model, itself. In this paper, we show that the technique is sufficiently powerful to address the variation in the inner zone energetic proton environment which occurs as a function of the solar cycle.

Vampola, A. L.↗

Field‐representative evaluation of PID‐polarization in TOPCon PV modules by accelerated stress testing

Abstract Potential‐induced degradation‐polarization (PID‐p) can reduce module power, but how to project the extent to which PID‐p may occur in field conditions considering the factors of system voltage, condensed moisture, temperature, and illumination has not been clarified. Using tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) modules, this work demonstrates a method to test full‐size crystalline silicon PV modules for PID‐p to provide field‐representative results. In initial screening tests with positive or negative 1000 V electrical bias applied at 60°C for 96 h using Al foil electrodes on the glass surfaces, the module type exhibited reversible PID‐p only on the front face when the cell circuit was in negative voltage potential. No PID was detected on the rear after testing in either polarity. We then evaluated the PID‐p sensitivity on the front side under different UV irradiances while maintaining the glass surface wet to estimate real‐world susceptibility to PID‐p. The magnitude of the observed behavior was fit using a previously developed charge transfer and depletion by light model. Whereas power loss with −1000 V applied to the cell circuit at 60°C for 96 h in the dark was about 30%, testing the module front under 0.051 W·m −2 nm −1 at 340 nm UVA irradiation using fluorescent tubes, the mean degradation was only 3%. When the modules were tested in the dark for PID‐p with in situ dark current–voltage (I‐V) characterization, the thermal activation energy for degradation was 0.71 eV; for recovery in the dark, it was 0.58 eV. Whereas recovery from the degraded state at 60°C in the dark without voltage bias was 5% absolute in 38 h, rapid recovery of about 5% absolute was observed with 1000 W·s/m 2 exposure at 25°C using a flash tester.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrated In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) connects individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. MATLAB was favorable to use as the main software integration tool due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of technologies, including but not limited to, the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system and an oxygen extraction carbothermal reduction process. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 60,000 cases during its parametric sweeps; these system iterations produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry for minimizing heater energy demands, estimating carbothermal reactor and radiator mass relationships, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit. Efforts to update the MAIT tool are ongoing to accommodate and scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy, and increase the MAIT software capability to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗

The helium abundance of Jupiter from Voyager

Full disk measurements recorded 31 days before the Voyager 1 encounter with Jupiter by the radiometer of the infrared instrument, IRIS, indicate a geometric albedo of 0.274 + or - 0.013. Combining this measurement with the Pioneer derived phase integral of 1.25 and our error estimate of 0.1 yields a Jovian Bond albedo of 0.343 + or - 0.032. Infrared spectra recorded at the same time by the Michelson interferometer, along with a model extrapolation to low wave numbers not covered by the instrument, yield a thermal emission of (1.359 + or - 0.014) .001 W cm to the (-2) power. As in the case of the albedo measurement, the quoted errors in the emission measurement reflect estimates of systematic effects and are uncertain while the random component is negligible. From these measurements the internal heat flux of Jupiter is estimated to be (5.444 + or - 0.425) .0001 W cm to the (-2) power, and the energy balance defined as the ratio of emitted thermal to absorbed solar energy is 1.668 + or - 0.085.

Gautier, D.↗