Results for “performance prediction” — Page 32

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven analysis and prediction of wastewater treatment plant performance: Insights and forecasting for sustainable operations

Here this study presents a comprehensive performance and forecasting analysis of the As-Samra wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in Jordan, with two main objectives. Firstly, a thorough evaluation of the plant's performance is conducted. The analysis involves independently assessing historical operational conditions, plant production, and their statistical correlations using various statistical techniques. The second objective focuses on developing a data-driven forecasting approach to predict the plant's production one month in advance, using multiple machine learning models. The results highlight the effectiveness of principal component analysis (PCA) in simplifying operational data, revealing distinct operational clusters, and identifying seasonal production patterns while showing correlations between operational conditions and overall power production. The support vector machine (SVM) forecasting model emerged as the top performer, showcasing the potential of a hybrid forecasting approach. The findings offer valuable perspectives for enhancing operational efficiency, refining production planning, and ultimately improving the environmental impact of the plant.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

The first two chromosome‐scale genome assemblies of American hazelnut enable comparative genomic analysis of the genus Corylus

Summary The native, perennial shrub American hazelnut ( Corylus americana ) is cultivated in the Midwestern United States for its significant ecological benefits, as well as its high‐value nut crop. Implementation of modern breeding methods and quantitative genetic analyses of C. americana requires high‐quality reference genomes, a resource that is currently lacking. We therefore developed the first chromosome‐scale assemblies for this species using the accessions ‘Rush’ and ‘Winkler’. Genomes were assembled using HiFi PacBio reads and Arima Hi‐C data, and Oxford Nanopore reads and a high‐density genetic map were used to perform error correction. N50 scores are 31.9 Mb and 35.3 Mb, with 90.2% and 97.1% of the total genome assembled into the 11 pseudomolecules, for ‘Rush’ and ‘Winkler’, respectively. Gene prediction was performed using custom RNAseq libraries and protein homology data. ‘Rush’ has a BUSCO score of 99.0 for its assembly and 99.0 for its annotation, while ‘Winkler’ had corresponding scores of 96.9 and 96.5, indicating high‐quality assemblies. These two independent assemblies enable unbiased assessment of structural variation within C. americana , as well as patterns of syntenic relationships across the Corylus genus. Furthermore, we identified high‐density SNP marker sets from genotyping‐by‐sequencing data using 1343 C. americana , C. avellana and C. americana × C. avellana hybrids, in order to assess population structure in natural and breeding populations. Finally, the transcriptomes of these assemblies, as well as several other recently published Corylus genomes, were utilized to perform phylogenetic analysis of sporophytic self‐incompatibility (SSI) in hazelnut, providing evidence of unique molecular pathways governing self‐incompatibility in Corylus .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of the Jupiter Lase Facility Using Virtual Beamline ++ (Vbl++) Code

The Jupiter Laser Facility (JLF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a mid-scale laser facility, with three different laser platforms: Janus (Target Area 1), Titan, and COMET. To help the facility and its users better understand the laser performance, a model of Janus and Titan has been developed using the Virtual Beamline ++ code (VBL++), which was initially developed by LLNL to model the National Ignition Facility beamlines and predict their performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design Space Exploration for Novel Reduced-Vortex Turbine Rotors Using Free Vortex Wake Methods

In this work, we explore the use of mid-fidelity free vortex wake (FVW) tools, namely NREL's cOnvecting LAgrangian Filaments (OLAF) tool, to design and analyze wind turbine rotor blades. The goal of the exercise is to determine whether designs exist that out-perform traditional blade designs, which are optimized using the Blade-Element Momentum (BEM) method. We find that using design of experiments to generate simple modifications of the blade tip, OLAF predicts higher performance in terms of power coefficient for redesigned blades that are non-optimal according to BEM. We then use optimization methods with OLAF in the loop to attempt to automatically find OLAF-optimal designs. We analyze the results of these optimizations, demonstrating that some roadblocks exist before OLAF and FVW tools can be used to automatically find FVW-optimal blade designs that might exceed the performance of BEM-optimal blade designs.

blade design↗

DOE OSTI2020

Examining Ohmic Losses in Fuel-Cell Catalyst Layers with Different Pt/C Ratios

A model of a fuel-cell cathode with distinct proton conductivities at the agglomerate and electrode scales was used to simulate polarization curves under conditions with facile oxygen transport. Here, the model was applied to electrodes containing agglomerates with different ratios of platinum to carbon in order to examine the hypothesis that intra-agglomerate proton conductivity is substantially lower than ionomer conductivity. The model predicts decreasing performance and increasing sensitivity to Pt/C ratio as intra-agglomerate conductivity declines relative to a constant through-electrode conductivity. Experiments on catalyst layers with Vulcan supports do not show the predicted trend indicating that mesoscale intra-agglomerate conductivity is not orders of magnitude lower than bulk ionomer conductivity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report

The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

ZeoNet: 3D convolutional neural networks for predicting adsorption in nanoporous zeolites

Zeolites are one of the most widely used materials in the chemical industry due to their nanometer-sized pores that can adsorb and react upon molecules selectively. With hundreds of known framework topologies and hundreds of thousands of computationally predicted structures, the ability to rapidly predict zeolite performance allows researchers to prioritize their efforts on the most promising structures for a given application. Although the accuracy of forcefield-based atomistic simulations has advanced significantly in the past two decades, these simulations can be computationally expensive, especially for long-chain, complex molecules. Here, we present ZeoNet, a representation learning framework using convolutional neural networks (ConvNets) and 3D volumetric representations for predicting adsorption in zeolites. ZeoNet was trained on the task of predicting Henry's constants for adsorption, k H , of n-octadecane in more than 330 000 known and predicted zeolite materials. Employing a 3D grid based on the distances to solvent-accessible surfaces, a volumetric representation that can be generated efficiently, the best-performing ZeoNet achieved a correlation coefficient r 2 = 0.977 and a mean-squared error MSE = 3.8 in ln k H , which corresponds to an error of 9.3 kJ mol -1 in adsorption free energy. In comparison, a model based on hand-designed geometric features has values of r 2 = 0.783 and MSE = 35.7. ZeoNet is also relatively efficient and can process ≈8 structures per second on an Nvidia RTX 2080TI GPU, orders of magnitude faster than forcefield-based simulations. A systematic analysis was conducted to investigate how the choice of ConvNet architectures, the linear dimension (L) and spatial resolution (Δd) of the distance grids, batch size, optimizer, and learning rate impact the model performance. We found that ConvNets based on the ResNet architecture offer the best tradeoff between expressiveness and efficiency. The performance for all models reaches a plateau at L = 30–45 Å and depends less sensitively on grid resolution, with a small benefit around Δd = 0.30–0.45 Å. Finally, saliency maps were visualized to identify which regions of the materials contributed the most to model predictions. It was found, interestingly, that the predictions are driven primarily by the accessible pore volume rather than the region occupied by the framework atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning-accelerated data assimilation and forecasting workflow for commercial-scale geologic carbon storage

Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast data assimilation-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates geologic properties and predicts reservoir performance with quantified uncertainty from pressure history and CO 2 plumes interpreted through seismic inversion. As the most computationally expensive component in such a workflow is reservoir simulation, we developed surrogate models to predict dynamic pressure and CO 2 plume extents under multi-well injection. The surrogate models employ deep convolutional neural networks, specifically, a wide residual network and a residual U-Net. The workflow is validated against a flat threedimensional reservoir model representative of a clastic shelf depositional environment. Intelligent treatments are applied to bridge between quantities in a true-3D reservoir model and those in a single-layer reservoir model. The workflow can complete history matching and reservoir forecasting with uncertainty quantification in less than one hour on a mainstream personal workstation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Additive Manufacturing in the Nuclear Reactor Industry

This article discusses the application of additive manufacturing in the nuclear reactor industry.Additive manufacturing for nuclear applications increased significantly in the late 2010s due to rapid progress in technology, particularly with methods using metals and ceramics.Because these manufacturing technologies are uniquely data-rich, they allow for an advanced understanding of materials, and they offer the potential to predict part performance based on build data. The inherent characteristics of additive manufacturing technologies allow for rapid prototyping and geometric freedom, making it possible to implement an accelerated agile design process for advanced nuclear reactor applications. Predictive high-fidelity multiphysics simulations are crucial to fully leverage this geometric flexibility. Qualification and regulator acceptance ultimately determine the breadth and scope of applications for these technologies. The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Transformational Challenge Reactor program integrates many of these elements to accelerate the deployment of additive manufacturing technologies to industry.

Betzler, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2023

An extended focused assessment with sonography in trauma ultrasound tissue-mimicking phantom for developing automated diagnostic technologies

Medical imaging-based triage is critical for ensuring medical treatment is timely and prioritized. However, without proper image collection and interpretation, triage decisions can be hard to make. While automation approaches can enhance these triage applications, tissue phantoms must be developed to train and mature these novel technologies. Here, we have developed a tissue phantom modeling the ultrasound views imaged during the enhanced focused assessment with sonography in trauma exam (eFAST). The tissue phantom utilized synthetic clear ballistic gel with carveouts in the abdomen and rib cage corresponding to the various eFAST scan points. Various approaches were taken to simulate proper physiology without injuries present or to mimic pneumothorax, hemothorax, or abdominal hemorrhage at multiple locations in the torso. Multiple ultrasound imaging systems were used to acquire ultrasound scans with or without injury present and were used to train deep learning image classification predictive models. Performance of the artificial intelligent (AI) models trained in this study achieved over 97% accuracy for each eFAST scan site. We used a previously trained AI model for pneumothorax which achieved 74% accuracy in blind predictions for images collected with the novel eFAST tissue phantom. Grad-CAM heat map overlays for the predictions identified that the AI models were tracking the area of interest for each scan point in the tissue phantom. Overall, the eFAST tissue phantom ultrasound scans resembled human images and were successful in training AI models. Tissue phantoms are critical first steps in troubleshooting and developing medical imaging automation technologies for this application that can accelerate the widespread use of ultrasound imaging for emergency triage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Surpassing millisecond coherence in on chip superconducting quantum memories by optimizing materials and circuit design

The performance of superconducting quantum circuits for quantum computing has advanced tremendously in recent decades; however, a comprehensive understanding of relaxation mechanisms does not yet exist. In this work, we utilize a multimode approach to characterizing energy losses in superconducting quantum circuits, with the goals of predicting device performance and improving coherence through materials, process, and circuit design optimization. Using this approach, we measure significant reductions in surface and bulk dielectric losses by employing a tantalum-based materials platform and annealed sapphire substrates. With this knowledge we predict the relaxation times of aluminum- and tantalum-based transmon qubits, and find that they are consistent with experimental results. We additionally optimize device geometry to maximize coherence within a coaxial tunnel architecture, and realize on-chip quantum memories with single-photon Ramsey times of 2.0 – 2.7 ms, limited by their energy relaxation times of 1.0 – 1.4 ms. These results demonstrate an advancement towards a more modular and compact coaxial circuit architecture for bosonic qubits with reproducibly high coherence.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilizing integrated neutron diffraction and elastoplastic self-consistent crystal plasticity model to quantitatively assess the strengthening mechanism in Al–12.5Ce and Al–12.5Ce–0.4Mg alloys

An integrated in-situ neutron diffraction and elastic plastic self-consistent crystal plasticity (EPSC-CP) modeling scheme is performed on a binary Al–12Ce alloy and a ternary Al–12Ce–0.4Mg alloys. Using this scheme, the constitutive parameters, i.e. elastic constants and slip system parameters of individual phases can be calibrated which can be used in microstructure-based CP models to predict materials performance. From this study, it is shown that the elastic constants of Al 11 Ce 3 intermetallics calculated from density function theory calculation in the literature are rather accurate. When applied to the EPSC-CP model, the lattice strains of both the binary and ternary alloys are correctly predicted as compared with experiments, and large lattice strain differences between Al (100) plane and Al 11 Ce 3 (010) plane are demonstrated. The slip system parameters calibrated by the scheme shows that the addition of 0.4 wt% Mg in the alloy has little influence on the critical resolved shear stress of initial dislocation glide in the Al matrix which caused plastic yield in the material. This can be explained by the very dilute Mg solute content in the Al solid solution, causing large spacing of Al–Mg lattice misfit sites and little impact on resistance of dislocation glide at initial yield. The 0.4 wt% Mg addition, on the other hand, has a large influence on the hardening term in the slip system parameters, indicating those Al–Mg misfit sites do help dislocation accumulation during the deformation. The impact of dilute Mg addition on the Al slip system parameters is also reflected in the flow behavior of the ternary alloy: little impact on the yield stress, but a large impact on working hardening and tensile strength of the materials which is consistent with the literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

I 2 S-LWR microchannel heat exchanger design and experimental validation

The Integral Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) includes primary-to-secondary coolant heat exchangers located in the downcomer of the reactor pressure vessel. A microchannel heat exchanger (MCHX) configuration is selected to meet the limited available volume and high heat duty requirements. The design, modeling, and optimization of the liquid-liquid MCHX is outlined. In addition, the performance of a MCHX test section representative of the I 2 S-LWR MCHX design is validated experimentally. Experimental results show that heat transfer and pressure drop correlations developed for larger, macroscale channels lead to accurate predictions of performance. Additionally, this study shows that an MCHX can deliver the required heat duties within the available space and pressure drop constraints of the overall I2 S-LWR design.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life history strategies among soil bacteria—dichotomy for few, continuum for many

Abstract Study of life history strategies may help predict the performance of microorganisms in nature by organizing the complexity of microbial communities into groups of organisms with similar strategies. Here, we tested the extent that one common application of life history theory, the copiotroph-oligotroph framework, could predict the relative population growth rate of bacterial taxa in soils from four different ecosystems. We measured the change of in situ relative growth rate to added glucose and ammonium using both 18O–H2O and 13C quantitative stable isotope probing to test whether bacterial taxa sorted into copiotrophic and oligotrophic groups. We saw considerable overlap in nutrient responses across most bacteria regardless of phyla, with many taxa growing slowly and few taxa that grew quickly. To define plausible life history boundaries based on in situ relative growth rates, we applied Gaussian mixture models to organisms’ joint 18O–13C signatures and found that across experimental replicates, few taxa could consistently be assigned as copiotrophs, despite their potential for fast growth. When life history classifications were assigned based on average relative growth rate at varying taxonomic levels, finer resolutions (e.g., genus level) were significantly more effective in capturing changes in nutrient response than broad taxonomic resolution (e.g., phylum level). Our results demonstrate the difficulty in generalizing bacterial life history strategies to broad lineages, and even to single organisms across a range of soils and experimental conditions. We conclude that there is a continued need for the direct measurement of microbial communities in soil to advance ecologically realistic frameworks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flow condensation heat transfer performance of natural and emerging synthetic refrigerants

There is great interest in predicting flow condensation heat transfer for lower global warming potential (GWP) fluids. This paper analyzes the efficacy of common flow condensation correlations developed for particular fluids in order to identify their suitability to predict heat transfer performance of low GWP fluids. Condensation heat transfer data were extracted from the literature, including 19 papers and 1,473 data points for natural refrigerants [i.e., ammonia (R717), CO 2 (R744), propane (R290), isobutane (R600a)] and 35 papers and 5,030 data points for synthetic refrigerants [i.e., R12, R1234yf, R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R22, R32, R41, R123, R125, R134a, R142b, R152a, R161, R404A, R410A, R448A, R449A, R450A, R452B, R454C, R455A, R513A] encompassing tube diameters of 0.1–11.5 mm, mass fluxes of 55–1200 kg/m2s, and saturation temperatures of -25°C–65°C. Correlations analyzed included Akers et al. (1959), Cavallini et al. (2006, 2011), Kim and Mudawar (2013), Macdonald and Garimella (2016), Shah (1979, 2009, 2013, 2016) and Traviss et al. (1973) for smooth tubes and Chamra et al. (2005) and Kedzierski and Goncalves (1999) for enhanced tubes. Since most studies did not report wall temperature, correlations which relied on wall temperature directly or indirectly were excluded from the analysis. For synthetic refrigerants, mean average error (MAE) ranged from 6%–257%, and Cavallini et al. (2011) and Kim and Mudawar (2013) were the best predictors for emerging synthetic refrigerants. Furthermore, the Kim and Mudawar (2013) correlation was found to best predict the heat transfer performance for propane and R600a data, but most correlations did not accurately predict ammonia and CO 2 flow condensation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗