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Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enhance Low Level Temperature and Moisture Profiles Through Combining NUCAPS, ABI Observations, and RTMA Analysis

Thermodynamic information from low levels in the atmosphere is crucial for operational weather forecasts and meteorological researchers. The NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) sounding products have been proven beneficial to fill the data gap between synoptic radiosonde observations (RAOBs). However, compared with the upper troposphere, the accuracy of NUCAPS soundings in the low levels still needs improvement. In this study, a deep neural network (DNN) is applied to fuse multiple data sources to enhance the NUCAPS temperature and moisture profiles in the lower atmosphere. The network is developed by combining satellite observations, including NUCAPS sounding retrievals and high resolution geostationary satellite observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager, and surface analysis from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) as inputs, while collocated soundings from ECMWF re-analysis version 5 are used as the benchmark for the training. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the independent testing data set, data from a different year, as well as collocated RAOBs, showing improvement to the temperature and moisture profiles by reducing the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) by more than 30% in the lower atmosphere (from 700 hPa to surface) in both clear sky and partially cloudy conditions. A convective event from June 18, 2017 is presented to illustrate the application of the enhanced low level soundings on high impact weather events. The enhanced soundings from fused data capture the large surface-based convective available potential energy structures in the preconvection environment, which is very useful for severe storm nowcasting and forecasting applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ARM Radiosondes for SNPP/JPSS Validation Field Campaign Report

This field campaign extension has been a coordinated effort involving the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, the University of Wisconsin at Madison, and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) project to validate NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture sounding products from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments on board the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite platforms. In this arrangement, funding for radiosondes and balloons was provided by the JPSS project to ARM. These radiosondes were launched coincident with NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite overpasses at the ARM field sites at Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), North Slope Alaska (NSA), and Southern Great Plains (SGP). Combined with other ARM data, an assessment of the radiosonde data quality was performed and post-processing corrections applied. The dedicated radiosondes were integrated into the NOAA Products Validation System (NPROVS+), which collocated the radiosondes with satellite products (NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites [EUMETSAT], Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES], Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate [COSMIC]) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts for use in product assessment and algorithm development. This work is a part of the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellite retrieval validation efforts and provides critical accuracy assessments of the temperature and water vapor soundings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Lyman- α forest from LBGs: First 3D correlation measurement with DESI and prospects for cosmology

The Lyman-α (Lyα) forest is a key tracer of large-scale structure at redshifts z > 2, traditionally studied using the spectra of luminous but relatively rare quasars. In this work, we explore the viability of using the fainter yet significantly more abundant Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) as alternative background sources for Lyα forest studies. We analyze 4,151 Lyα forest skewers extracted from LBG spectra obtained in the DESI pilot surveys conducted in the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. From this dataset, we present the first measurement of the Lyα forest auto-correlation function derived exclusively from LBG spectra, probing comoving separations up to 48 h -1 Mpc at an effective redshift of z eff = 2.70. The measured LBG Lyα forest auto-correlation is consistent with that derived from DESI DR2 quasar Lyα forest spectra at a comparable redshift, validating the use of LBGs as reliable background sources for Lyα forest analyses. In addition, we measure the cross-correlation between the LBG Lyα forest and the positions of 13,362 galaxies, demonstrating that this observable serves as a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the precision and accuracy of galaxy redshift estimates, and for identifying and correcting systematic offsets. Finally, using both synthetic LBG spectra and Fisher matrix forecasts, we show that a future wide-area survey covering ∼5,000 deg 2 , targeting 1,000 LBGs per square degree at signal-to-noise levels comparable to our sample, could enable LBG-based Lyα forest baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with expected uncertainties of σ α ISO = 0.4% (isotropic) and σ α AP = 1.3% (Alcock-Paczynski). This performance is further enhanced when combining the BAO analysis with a Lyα forest Full Shape (FS) approach, yielding a predicted uncertainty of σ α ISO FS = 0.6%. These results open a new avenue for precision cosmology at high redshift using the Lyα forest in dense LBG samples.

Lyman alpha forest↗

Machine Learning Classification Strategy to Improve Streamflow Estimates in Diverse River Basins in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is significantly altered by human activities including land use/cover alterations, reservoir operation, irrigation, and water exports. Climate is also highly varied across the CRB which contains snowpack-dominated watersheds and arid, precipitation-dominated basins. Recently, machine learning methods have improved the generalizability and accuracy of streamflow models. Previous successes with LSTM modeling have primarily focused on unimpacted basins, and few studies have included human impacted systems in either regional or single-basin modeling. We demonstrate that the diverse hydrological behavior of river basins in the CRB are too difficult to model with a single, regional model. We propose a method to delineate catchments into categories based on the level of predictability, hydrological characteristics, and the level of human influence. Lastly, we model streamflow in each category with climate and anthropogenic proxy data sets and use feature importance methods to assess whether model performance improves with additional relevant data. Overall, land use cover data at a low temporal resolution was not sufficient to capture the irregular patterns of reservoir releases, demonstrating the importance of having high-resolution reservoir release data sets at a global scale. On the other hand, the classification approach reduced the complexity of the data and has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts in human-altered regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tensor-to-scalar ratio forecasts for extended LiteBIRD frequency configurations

LiteBIRD is a planned JAXA-led cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode satellite experiment aiming for launch in the late 2020s, with a primary goal of detecting the imprint of primordial inflationary gravitational waves. Its current baseline focal-plane configuration includes 15 frequency bands between 40 and 402 GHz, fulfilling the mission requirements to detect the amplitude of gravitational waves with the total uncertainty on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, δr, down to δr < 0.001. A key aspect of this performance is accurate astrophysical component separation, and the ability to remove polarized thermal dust emission is particularly important. In this paper we note that the CMB frequency spectrum falls off nearly exponentially above 300 GHz relative to the thermal dust spectral energy distribution, and a relatively minor high frequency extension can therefore result in even lower uncertainties and better model reconstructions. Specifically, we compared the baseline design with five extended configurations, while varying the underlying dust modeling, in each of which the High-Frequency Telescope (HFT) frequency range was shifted logarithmically toward higher frequencies, with an upper cutoff ranging between 400 and 600 GHz. In each case, we measured the tensor-to-scalar ratio r uncertainty and bias using both parametric and minimum-variance component-separation algorithms. When the thermal dust sky model includes a spatially varying spectral index and temperature, we find that the statistical uncertainty on r after foreground cleaning may be reduced by as much as 30–50% by extending the upper limit of the frequency range from 400 to 600 GHz, with most of the improvement already gained at 500 GHz. We also note that a broader frequency range leads to higher residuals when fitting an incorrect dust model, but also it is easier to discriminate between models through higher χ 2 sensitivity. Even in the case in which the fitting procedure does not correspond to the underlying dust model in the sky, and when the highest frequency data cannot be modeled with sufficient fidelity and must be excluded from the analysis, the uncertainty on r increases by only about 5% for a 500 GHz configuration compared to the baseline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A trait-based framework for linking microbial communities with carbon transformations under precipitation change

Droughts are common throughout the world. As the climate changes, droughts may become more frequent and intense. Still, scientists are uncertain about how drought will affect the natural world, particularly the bacteria, fungi, and other microbes that live in soils. These tiny life forms are crucial because they control the Earth’s flows of carbon and essential nutrients. Researchers at the University of California, Irvine, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory teamed up to study how the microbiome, or collection of bacteria and fungi in the soil, deals with drought. Since 2007, the researchers have used shelters with retractable roofs to prevent nearly half of normal rainfall from reaching grass and shrub ecosystems, and their soil microbiomes, in Southern California. The study team discovered that microbes have some clever tricks up their sleeve for surviving drought. When growing on dead grass as a food source, microbes ramp up production of specialized chemicals called osmolytes that keep their cells from drying out. But microbes growing on dead shrubs face another problem. Unlike grass, shrub leaves are a lousy food source. To digest and consume shrub leaves, microbes have to exude more enzymes, which act like biochemical chef knives that chop complex leaf molecules into bite-sized pieces. Carbon is the coin of the microbial realm, earned via enzyme action or slurping up dead plant juices. Microbes growing under normal conditions on tasty dead grass have it easy: they can spend most of their carbon currency on growth. With drought, life gets harder as microbes need to pay up for osmolytes and ramp down their growth. It gets worse with shrub leaves because microbes have to multi-task among growth, enzyme secretion, and osmolyte production. When drought hits, microbes on shrub leaves forgo the osmolytes, probably because losing the carbon revenue from enzyme investment would be a deal-breaker for survival. The next question tackled by the researchers asked how the genes controlling microbial lifestyles sort out across the tree of life. Most microbiologists thought these lifestyles would correspond to rather large branches on the tree. But the study team found that in fact, very closely related microbes differ in important and interesting ways. For example, bacteria that have nearly identical housekeeping genes respond distinctively to warming, rainfall, and plant chemistry. As a result, soil microbiomes are much richer in diversity than originally thought. And studying microbial diversity in much greater detail could open up many more possibilities for how microbial life deals with changing environmental conditions. Trying to understand microbial life without the fine details of genetic diversity is like trying to stream Netflix on a dial-up connection. By looking across the landscape, the researchers revealed that microbial diversity is absolutely critical for maintaining the planet’s flows of carbon and nutrients. The study team designed a new technology—microbial cages—for transplanting intact microbiomes. With the cages, the researchers could move microbiomes to novel environments and compare their ability to cycle carbon and nutrients. In some cases, performance tailed off when microbiomes found themselves in a new environment, but in other cases, performance rivaled or even exceeded that of the resident microbiome. And even the low performers eventually caught up to the native microbiomes if given sufficient time. These findings mean that microbiomes—at least in Southern California—may be resilient to climate shifts due to a high diversity of microbial lifestyles. Coping with heat and drought may literally be in their DNA. The last piece of the research puzzle, and a “Holy Grail” for microbial ecologists, is to forecast the behavior of diverse microbiomes. To meet this challenge, the study team developed new theory and computer models. For the first time, these models account for hundreds of different microbes and how their intricate lifestyles cope with drought. The models are starting to connect the tiniest microbes with the global cycles that sustain Earth’s farms, fields, and forests. With that connection, it will be easier for society to plan for a world with more droughts and other climate disruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Design considerations for a Digital Twin built to improve nitrification performance at a water resource recovery facility

A Digital Twin built around Activated Sludge Model No. 1 was deployed at a full-scale water resource recovery facility. Its design included a waste rate recommender system based on automatic scenario analyses, where influent loads and waste rates are varied to determine their impact on nitrification. At the same frequency as these scenario analyses, scheduled auto-calibrations allow for nitrifier maximum specific growth rate (μmax-NITO) soft sensing, the only kinetic parameter shown to require adjustment if the objective is aeration tank effluent ammonia forecasting accuracy. By integrating temperature forecasting over the next three sludge ages, this Digital Twin approach creates opportunities for advancing waste rate decisions in anticipation of seasonal temperature changes, optimizing ammonia control authority under varying influent loads, and furnishing valuable insights for future capital projects requiring nitrifier kinetic understanding and modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗